Ludlow (Weds)
15 hours ago
Wednesday, May 30, 2012
Tuesday, May 29, 2012
Monday, May 28, 2012
Price of gold, Bloxham Stockbrokers
Gold has taken a nice jump and now trades around $1581. I think it might take a bit of time to break $1600 but if we do, we could go further.
In the news, one of Ireland's oldest stockbroking firms, Bloxham, has ceased trading. The Central Bank has shut them down due to financial irregularities. Sad to see. News is only breaking but it will be interesting to see what comes out of it.
It's another beautiful day out - long may it last! Not too busy betting/trading wise:
Monday's traditional back bets:
Monday's inplay trades:
In the news, one of Ireland's oldest stockbroking firms, Bloxham, has ceased trading. The Central Bank has shut them down due to financial irregularities. Sad to see. News is only breaking but it will be interesting to see what comes out of it.
It's another beautiful day out - long may it last! Not too busy betting/trading wise:
Monday's traditional back bets:
Monday's inplay trades:
Sunday, May 27, 2012
Irish 1,000 Guineas at the Curragh
It's funny how things work out - I had a cracking day in the Irish Independent yesterday with plenty of profit - but my dutching and inplay trades suffered. You earn with one hand and it's taken back with the other.
Just having one regular back bet today, Homecoming Queen at the Curragh (3.40) in the Irish 1,000 Guineas. To be honest, I priced her up at 4/5 so it's a little worrying that she's drifted out to 5/4 but I can't see any reason to oppose so I'll have a decent sized bet.
Here's today's inplay trades:
Just having one regular back bet today, Homecoming Queen at the Curragh (3.40) in the Irish 1,000 Guineas. To be honest, I priced her up at 4/5 so it's a little worrying that she's drifted out to 5/4 but I can't see any reason to oppose so I'll have a decent sized bet.
Here's today's inplay trades:
Saturday, May 26, 2012
Saturday
No form study bets for today but it's a really busy day on the Dutching trial.
Here's today's inplay trades:
Here's today's inplay trades:
Friday, May 25, 2012
Friday
Don't have much time for a write up today as I'm trying to get tomorrow's newspaper article done.
No traditional back bets today. A good day on those yesterday with two winners, albeit at short prices.
Today's inplay trades:
No traditional back bets today. A good day on those yesterday with two winners, albeit at short prices.
Today's inplay trades:
Thursday, May 24, 2012
Is it a good time to buy gold?
I've been keeping an eye on the price of gold lately with the thoughts of getting back in. It's been a while since I sold my gold and it's a commodity I've done fairly well out of in the past two years.
At the moment, it's costing around $1555 an ounce but with more and more uncertainty in the markets, I have a feeling it will rise as people return to the safe haven metal. The Euro is looking fairly weak but if we get any bad news from the US, it could see people buy gold again. Actually, the Euro hit a 22 month low against the dollar last night. I don't have an open position on that at the moment but generally, I'm bearish on the Euro against the dollar. I might buy a small bit of gold soon and scale in over the next few weeks if the price holds. Monthly gold chart:
I mentioned Facebook shares the other day and that's proving interesting - a mate of mine sent me a good article yesterday which sums up where the IPO went arseways - worth a read:
http://www.privco.com/facebooks-broken-ipo-facebook-at-93-billion-loses-11-billion-in-value-ipo-investors-lose-17-billion-in-a-day-green-shoe-option-in-jeopardy?goback=.gde_113691_member_117330475
Another interesting story is Dell - shares fell off a cliff yesterday and lost 18% of their value. It's funny, because they used to be so big, including Ireland. At one time, that was the first place I'd look for a new computer but come to think of it, I don't think I even checked Dell when I bought my new laptop a couple of months ago. They just seem to have gone off the radar. I know one or two people who work for them so I hope they recover somewhat.
Didn't get to trade on Betfair yesterday evening - I came home to discover that my daughter had bought a trampoline out of her Communion money. As Miley from Glenroe might say, "Well Holy God". It took all evening to put the damn thing up. And it takes up half the back garden. Rain, shine, snow or ice, she'll be playing on the fecking thing.
Regarding the form study, I'm still in profit (about 7pts) but it's hard work and I'm wondering if it is worth it. I'm up at 6.30 most mornings to put in the work but the returns are small. I've about 270 bets under the belt so I'll keep going to 300 and then do a review and maybe tweak a few things. Perhaps I can make it more profitable with a few minor changes. I'll have to do something though - out of all the betting and trading I do, this takes up the most time. As you can see, it got a great start and then plummeted. It's recovered somewhat but I haven't made any money off it in a while:
But I'll keep going for a bit and then do a review and see. Here's today's bets anyway:
The inplay trades have been bouncing up and down but going nowhere in the past few days. It's better than losing but now that I've gone past the 400 trades mark, I think I'll have another review. I'm still confident that there is something good in this despite the fact that the profit has declined recently. I'll take a look at prices again and maybe a few other things. Here's today's inplay trades:
Finally, the Dutching is going OK and I'm about halfway through the trial. It's about 6pts in front after 48 bets so I guess I should be pleased enough with that.
At the moment, it's costing around $1555 an ounce but with more and more uncertainty in the markets, I have a feeling it will rise as people return to the safe haven metal. The Euro is looking fairly weak but if we get any bad news from the US, it could see people buy gold again. Actually, the Euro hit a 22 month low against the dollar last night. I don't have an open position on that at the moment but generally, I'm bearish on the Euro against the dollar. I might buy a small bit of gold soon and scale in over the next few weeks if the price holds. Monthly gold chart:
I mentioned Facebook shares the other day and that's proving interesting - a mate of mine sent me a good article yesterday which sums up where the IPO went arseways - worth a read:
http://www.privco.com/facebooks-broken-ipo-facebook-at-93-billion-loses-11-billion-in-value-ipo-investors-lose-17-billion-in-a-day-green-shoe-option-in-jeopardy?goback=.gde_113691_member_117330475
Another interesting story is Dell - shares fell off a cliff yesterday and lost 18% of their value. It's funny, because they used to be so big, including Ireland. At one time, that was the first place I'd look for a new computer but come to think of it, I don't think I even checked Dell when I bought my new laptop a couple of months ago. They just seem to have gone off the radar. I know one or two people who work for them so I hope they recover somewhat.
Didn't get to trade on Betfair yesterday evening - I came home to discover that my daughter had bought a trampoline out of her Communion money. As Miley from Glenroe might say, "Well Holy God". It took all evening to put the damn thing up. And it takes up half the back garden. Rain, shine, snow or ice, she'll be playing on the fecking thing.
Regarding the form study, I'm still in profit (about 7pts) but it's hard work and I'm wondering if it is worth it. I'm up at 6.30 most mornings to put in the work but the returns are small. I've about 270 bets under the belt so I'll keep going to 300 and then do a review and maybe tweak a few things. Perhaps I can make it more profitable with a few minor changes. I'll have to do something though - out of all the betting and trading I do, this takes up the most time. As you can see, it got a great start and then plummeted. It's recovered somewhat but I haven't made any money off it in a while:
But I'll keep going for a bit and then do a review and see. Here's today's bets anyway:
The inplay trades have been bouncing up and down but going nowhere in the past few days. It's better than losing but now that I've gone past the 400 trades mark, I think I'll have another review. I'm still confident that there is something good in this despite the fact that the profit has declined recently. I'll take a look at prices again and maybe a few other things. Here's today's inplay trades:
Finally, the Dutching is going OK and I'm about halfway through the trial. It's about 6pts in front after 48 bets so I guess I should be pleased enough with that.
Wednesday, May 23, 2012
Wednesday
A busy day today. Today's inplay trades bring that past the 400 bets mark - it might be time to do another review of that soon and perhaps make some tweaks. I'm out and about today but I hope to get home and do some trading on the evening racing.
Interesting to see the Euro well down in overnight trade. It's clear that Greece are making plans for an exit. They are now trying to pay it down but it's definitely got to be an odds-on shot now?
Today's traditional back bets:
Today's inplay trades:
Interesting to see the Euro well down in overnight trade. It's clear that Greece are making plans for an exit. They are now trying to pay it down but it's definitely got to be an odds-on shot now?
Today's traditional back bets:
Today's inplay trades:
Tuesday, May 22, 2012
59/1 winner, €500 challenge, trading on Betfair, Facebook shares
It's gas, I managed to find myself a 60.0 winner today but still only managed to make a small profit!
It was part of my Dutching trial so I had some other selections which diluted my stake right down. Still, I'm quite proud to have picked that one (Bitaphon). After a great start and then a nosedive, I guess you could say the Dutching trial has been going OK but it's not setting the world on fire. I'll keep it going for the 100 bets and have a look at my stats after that. At the moment, here's where I'm at with the dutching:
Dutch bets: 45
Wins: 21
Strike rate: 46.67 %
Profit to a €10 (overall) stake: €41.50
ROI: 9.22 %
Longest sequence of winners in-a-row: 3
Longest sequence of losers in a row: 7
Bank all-time high: €105.40
Bank all-time low: €0.00
Regarding the €500 challenge, I've been only using the inplay trades for that. As soon as I started, I hit my worst period on them so that knocked me back for six and cut about 25pc off the bank. However, because I'm using Kelly staking, the stakes started to reduce which saved me a few quid. I've made a small recovery - but that's also the downside of Kelly - my stakes are now low. Having had an amazing start, I'm a bit iffy about the inplay lays. It's still well in profit to a €10 stake as you can see from the chart but you will also notice that the profit of €150 or so is half what it used to be:
So for the challenge, I'm considering including some regular trading on that to see if I can kick on and meet my targets. I hadn't been trading in a while but done some this evening. It's kinda hard to get a feel for the markets when you haven't been trading in a while so I guess I was lucky to break-even. I eased into it with some small stakes before kicking on. I hit some losses but came good in the end and was on a roll by the time racing was over! Here's my trading account results for tonight:
Regarding the financial trading, I'm kinda going mad with myself over Facebook. The missus asked me about the shares and I told her I think they should be short sold. I could be way off but I'm not sure what room for expansion they have. Also, we've seen a number of big companies open at high prices after the IPO only to fall back. But silly me had gone to cash a few weeks ago and emptied my account. So I didn't trade it. I'll have to get back into the financial trading soon though as I've missed some good opportunities. Whether or not Facebook will continue to fall remains to be seen but it's one to follow out of interest anyway.
It was part of my Dutching trial so I had some other selections which diluted my stake right down. Still, I'm quite proud to have picked that one (Bitaphon). After a great start and then a nosedive, I guess you could say the Dutching trial has been going OK but it's not setting the world on fire. I'll keep it going for the 100 bets and have a look at my stats after that. At the moment, here's where I'm at with the dutching:
Dutch bets: 45
Wins: 21
Strike rate: 46.67 %
Profit to a €10 (overall) stake: €41.50
ROI: 9.22 %
Longest sequence of winners in-a-row: 3
Longest sequence of losers in a row: 7
Bank all-time high: €105.40
Bank all-time low: €0.00
Regarding the €500 challenge, I've been only using the inplay trades for that. As soon as I started, I hit my worst period on them so that knocked me back for six and cut about 25pc off the bank. However, because I'm using Kelly staking, the stakes started to reduce which saved me a few quid. I've made a small recovery - but that's also the downside of Kelly - my stakes are now low. Having had an amazing start, I'm a bit iffy about the inplay lays. It's still well in profit to a €10 stake as you can see from the chart but you will also notice that the profit of €150 or so is half what it used to be:
So for the challenge, I'm considering including some regular trading on that to see if I can kick on and meet my targets. I hadn't been trading in a while but done some this evening. It's kinda hard to get a feel for the markets when you haven't been trading in a while so I guess I was lucky to break-even. I eased into it with some small stakes before kicking on. I hit some losses but came good in the end and was on a roll by the time racing was over! Here's my trading account results for tonight:
Regarding the financial trading, I'm kinda going mad with myself over Facebook. The missus asked me about the shares and I told her I think they should be short sold. I could be way off but I'm not sure what room for expansion they have. Also, we've seen a number of big companies open at high prices after the IPO only to fall back. But silly me had gone to cash a few weeks ago and emptied my account. So I didn't trade it. I'll have to get back into the financial trading soon though as I've missed some good opportunities. Whether or not Facebook will continue to fall remains to be seen but it's one to follow out of interest anyway.
Tuesday
Running out the door so no time for a write up, here's today's:
Traditional back bet:
Inplay trades:
Traditional back bet:
Inplay trades:
Monday, May 21, 2012
Thursday, May 17, 2012
Friday
Have to say, the evening racing is making things a bit busy and I kinda forgot how much work is involved during the summer! Lost a couple of quid today (Thurs) which was disappointing. Having a bit of a poor run at the moment - won't make any excuses, it's just one of those things. Anyway, it's a busy enough day on Friday and please note that there will be no posts here on Saturday as it is my daughter's first Communion day. I will, however, have my normal article in the Irish Independent.
Friday's traditional back bets:
Friday's inplay trades:
Friday's dutch bets:
http://www.letsbet.ie/forum/showthread.php?13096-Dutching-trial
Friday's traditional back bets:
Friday's inplay trades:
Friday's dutch bets:
http://www.letsbet.ie/forum/showthread.php?13096-Dutching-trial
Form study, trading inplay, dutching, books
Had a breakeven day overall yesterday despite having quite a few bets and trades:
It's funny when that happens as it seems like a waste of time! But ye just keep going as you never know what good or bad lies around the corner.
I've picked out three traditional back bets today:
'It was me' will go off at an odds-on price but the other two are odds against. Expecting a good run from each but I'm still finding the form a bit tricky at this time of the year, partly due to the awful weather in May.
A busy enough day on the inplay trades today. I'd love to kick on with these again as they've been really frustrating of late. They got such a good start so to see them struggle lately is a bit painful. But here goes anyway:
The DUTCHING BETS are going OK although they've dropped a few points in the past few days. Still, the stats are good overall and I'll keep the trial going for 100 bets to see where it takes me.
Here's the stats for those:
Dutch bets: 27
Wins: 14
Strike rate: 51.85 %
Profit to a €10 (overall) stake: €66.20
ROI: 24.52 %
Longest sequence of winners in-a-row: 3
Longest sequence of losers in a row: 7
Bank all-time high: €105.40
Bank all-time low: €0.00
***
Went for a run this morning and feel the better for it. It's seems paradoxical, but I actually have more energy for the day after I've been out running. I don't feel sluggish and I'm looking forward to getting back into that a bit more over the next few weeks.
***
With regard to books, I've just finished both of Alan Sugar's books. I'd highly recommend both although the second one repeats some of his stories in his biography. I'm about 3/4 through that Stop Orders by Tony Lawton. It got a good few five star reviews on Amazon so perhaps I was expecting more - but most of it wasn't new to me. Perhaps people that are new to trading don't realise how to do 'limit orders' and 'trailing stops' etc so it would be useful for some - but having done a financial trading diploma I have plenty of experience in this area. Still, like most books, I got one or two good nuggets of info and it gave me some ideas to try out.
I've just picked up Bill Cullen's Golden Apples book too. Fairly short but having had a flick through, it seems to offer solid advice on setting priorities and getting stuff done. Only read a couple of chapters but I reckon I'll enjoy it.
Anyway, that's it for now - will try post over the weekend although my daughter has her Communion so I may not be about on Saturday at least.
Best of luck with your trading/betting.
It's funny when that happens as it seems like a waste of time! But ye just keep going as you never know what good or bad lies around the corner.
I've picked out three traditional back bets today:
'It was me' will go off at an odds-on price but the other two are odds against. Expecting a good run from each but I'm still finding the form a bit tricky at this time of the year, partly due to the awful weather in May.
A busy enough day on the inplay trades today. I'd love to kick on with these again as they've been really frustrating of late. They got such a good start so to see them struggle lately is a bit painful. But here goes anyway:
The DUTCHING BETS are going OK although they've dropped a few points in the past few days. Still, the stats are good overall and I'll keep the trial going for 100 bets to see where it takes me.
Here's the stats for those:
Dutch bets: 27
Wins: 14
Strike rate: 51.85 %
Profit to a €10 (overall) stake: €66.20
ROI: 24.52 %
Longest sequence of winners in-a-row: 3
Longest sequence of losers in a row: 7
Bank all-time high: €105.40
Bank all-time low: €0.00
***
Went for a run this morning and feel the better for it. It's seems paradoxical, but I actually have more energy for the day after I've been out running. I don't feel sluggish and I'm looking forward to getting back into that a bit more over the next few weeks.
***
With regard to books, I've just finished both of Alan Sugar's books. I'd highly recommend both although the second one repeats some of his stories in his biography. I'm about 3/4 through that Stop Orders by Tony Lawton. It got a good few five star reviews on Amazon so perhaps I was expecting more - but most of it wasn't new to me. Perhaps people that are new to trading don't realise how to do 'limit orders' and 'trailing stops' etc so it would be useful for some - but having done a financial trading diploma I have plenty of experience in this area. Still, like most books, I got one or two good nuggets of info and it gave me some ideas to try out.
I've just picked up Bill Cullen's Golden Apples book too. Fairly short but having had a flick through, it seems to offer solid advice on setting priorities and getting stuff done. Only read a couple of chapters but I reckon I'll enjoy it.
Anyway, that's it for now - will try post over the weekend although my daughter has her Communion so I may not be about on Saturday at least.
Best of luck with your trading/betting.
Wednesday, May 16, 2012
Some updates
Apologies to regular readers for a lack of write ups recently, I'm just up to my eyes with a load of things on at the moment.
I'm currently giving some workshops in the libraries showing (mostly older) people how to download books and use e-Readers etc so that's taking up quite a bit of time. I'm also working hard on writing my book so that's taking up some time too. Plus, my daughter has her first Holy Communion this weekend so we've been busy enough organising some stuff for that too. Anyhow, here's a quick review of what's been happening:
Inplay trades/€500 challenge.
The inplay trades are still going through a rough time. It's still 15pts in profit overall but this is down from a high of about 30pts. I've 365 trades under the belt and I'll probably do some more analysis when I get to 400 bets. Unfortunately, I started the €500 challenge using these and couldn't have picked a worse time to do it! The bank went briefly into profit before taking a dive so I'm hoping it recovers soon.
Dutching
Started a dutching trial on Let's Bet which is going well. It's still very early days and I'll keep it going for 100 bets or so to see how I get on. If it continues to go well, I may also use these as part of my challenge. As I say, it's very early days yet so I'm not getting too excited.
Form study (traditional back bets)
This is going OK although I haven't had much time at it. I'm currently about 15pts in profit at the moment although like the inplay trades, my joy is tempered by the fact that they used to be about 30pts ahead some time back. I'll keep at it though and see where it takes me as the flat season progresses.
Financial trading
Quite simply, I haven't had the time to trade the financial markets this week. I'm a bit disappointed but what can ye do. I need to get the finger out here as I'm missing some interesting stuff at the moment with Greece and the Euro. Interestingly, the bookies are going even money that the Greeks will be out of the Euro currency at the end of the year. (well actually, they go 4/5 but they also go 4/5 on the other side of the book too so the over-round is a bit obvious but if it were a 100pc book, it would be about evens). It's funny because what was unthinkable five years ago is now reality, and every day we face new changes. Absolutely anything could happen with the Euro currency and I'm actually surprised to see it hold up against the dollar. Interesting times indeed and I need to get trading again.
Fitness
Haven't mentioned this in a while. I'm still going running but not as much as I'd like. I'm going for a 4K run around 2 to 3 times per week but when I get a bit more time, I want to increase this.
I think that's about it on the news front for now! Below are Wednesday's traditional bet and also the inplay trades. The dutching bets can be found here:
http://www.letsbet.ie/forum/showthread.php?13096-Dutching-trial&p=289017#post289017
Best of luck with your trading and betting.
Wayne
***
Wednesday's traditional back bet:
Wednesday's inplay trades:
I'm currently giving some workshops in the libraries showing (mostly older) people how to download books and use e-Readers etc so that's taking up quite a bit of time. I'm also working hard on writing my book so that's taking up some time too. Plus, my daughter has her first Holy Communion this weekend so we've been busy enough organising some stuff for that too. Anyhow, here's a quick review of what's been happening:
Inplay trades/€500 challenge.
The inplay trades are still going through a rough time. It's still 15pts in profit overall but this is down from a high of about 30pts. I've 365 trades under the belt and I'll probably do some more analysis when I get to 400 bets. Unfortunately, I started the €500 challenge using these and couldn't have picked a worse time to do it! The bank went briefly into profit before taking a dive so I'm hoping it recovers soon.
Dutching
Started a dutching trial on Let's Bet which is going well. It's still very early days and I'll keep it going for 100 bets or so to see how I get on. If it continues to go well, I may also use these as part of my challenge. As I say, it's very early days yet so I'm not getting too excited.
Form study (traditional back bets)
This is going OK although I haven't had much time at it. I'm currently about 15pts in profit at the moment although like the inplay trades, my joy is tempered by the fact that they used to be about 30pts ahead some time back. I'll keep at it though and see where it takes me as the flat season progresses.
Financial trading
Quite simply, I haven't had the time to trade the financial markets this week. I'm a bit disappointed but what can ye do. I need to get the finger out here as I'm missing some interesting stuff at the moment with Greece and the Euro. Interestingly, the bookies are going even money that the Greeks will be out of the Euro currency at the end of the year. (well actually, they go 4/5 but they also go 4/5 on the other side of the book too so the over-round is a bit obvious but if it were a 100pc book, it would be about evens). It's funny because what was unthinkable five years ago is now reality, and every day we face new changes. Absolutely anything could happen with the Euro currency and I'm actually surprised to see it hold up against the dollar. Interesting times indeed and I need to get trading again.
Fitness
Haven't mentioned this in a while. I'm still going running but not as much as I'd like. I'm going for a 4K run around 2 to 3 times per week but when I get a bit more time, I want to increase this.
I think that's about it on the news front for now! Below are Wednesday's traditional bet and also the inplay trades. The dutching bets can be found here:
http://www.letsbet.ie/forum/showthread.php?13096-Dutching-trial&p=289017#post289017
Best of luck with your trading and betting.
Wayne
***
Wednesday's traditional back bet:
Wednesday's inplay trades:
Tuesday, May 15, 2012
Sunday, May 13, 2012
Sunday
I've no tradtional back bets today but I'm going to take a keen eye on today's racing. While I won't have a bet, I'm looking forward to watching what should be a fairly straightforward win for Dermot Weld's Famous Name at Leopardstown this afternoon and his loss on heavy ground last time out can be overlooked. He's actually seven now and still going strong.
***
As regards the inplay trades, it's a busy day on them altough they have been going terrible of late. They are still well in profit but it's become a bit of a rollercoaster of late which is not something I like. Hopefully, I can get back on track altough the more losers you have, the more you start to doubt your ability to pick them. This compounds the negativity and makes the whole thing more difficult. Sure we'll see where today takes us anyway:
***
I've also got a couple of dutch bets today. Very very early days on that but so far so good:
Dutch bets: 11
Wins: 7
Strike rate: 63.64 %
Profit to a €10 (overall) stake: €81.70
ROI: 74.27 %
As mentioned, I'm going to trial this over 100 bets and then I may kick on with bigger stakes if successful.
***
The book I'm writing about trading is going OK and I hope to get another chapter done today. If I get it done, that brings me to about half way which is pretty much my target for early May.
Speaking of books, I came across this one which I found kinda funny in a sad sort of way!
Anyway, best of luck with your betting and trading today.
***
As regards the inplay trades, it's a busy day on them altough they have been going terrible of late. They are still well in profit but it's become a bit of a rollercoaster of late which is not something I like. Hopefully, I can get back on track altough the more losers you have, the more you start to doubt your ability to pick them. This compounds the negativity and makes the whole thing more difficult. Sure we'll see where today takes us anyway:
***
I've also got a couple of dutch bets today. Very very early days on that but so far so good:
Dutch bets: 11
Wins: 7
Strike rate: 63.64 %
Profit to a €10 (overall) stake: €81.70
ROI: 74.27 %
As mentioned, I'm going to trial this over 100 bets and then I may kick on with bigger stakes if successful.
***
The book I'm writing about trading is going OK and I hope to get another chapter done today. If I get it done, that brings me to about half way which is pretty much my target for early May.
Speaking of books, I came across this one which I found kinda funny in a sad sort of way!
Anyway, best of luck with your betting and trading today.
Saturday, May 12, 2012
Dutching horses on Betfair
I used to do quite a bit of dutching in my day and I used to make some decent profits at it. Decided to take it up again to see if I'm still up to it!
Running a trial on Let's Bet at the moment. Started off well:
Dutching trial
If it goes well, I'll ramp it up with bigger stakes - I'll report back here on progress periodically.
Running a trial on Let's Bet at the moment. Started off well:
Dutching trial
If it goes well, I'll ramp it up with bigger stakes - I'll report back here on progress periodically.
Friday, May 11, 2012
Friday
On foot of an email I recieved, I checked out how the inplay trades perform on the Irish races and interestingly, they do poorly. They rose up to around €100 (to a €10 stake) but have fallen sharply down to -60. Perhaps it's the lack of liquidity on the in-running Irish races that see them perform poor? I'm not quite sure but it's something to keep an eye on.
A few traditional back bets today:
And here's today's inplay trades:
A few traditional back bets today:
And here's today's inplay trades:
Thursday, May 10, 2012
Thursday
Didn't get online yesterday as something came up so apologies for no selections. Running out the door again so no time for a write up. May try get online later. Briefly:
Starting a dutching trial again, will post more later.
A breakeven day on the inplay trades on Tuesday
No traditional back bets for today
***
Today's inplay trades:
Starting a dutching trial again, will post more later.
A breakeven day on the inplay trades on Tuesday
No traditional back bets for today
***
Today's inplay trades:
Tuesday, May 8, 2012
Testing times
Well, that was a horrendous weekend on the inplay trades. It hit 9 losing trades in a row and cost me an absolute packet :-(
I once had five wins in-a-row and to get nine losers is absolutely rotten but it happened and I have to deal with it. Is it one of those unlucky streaks that are bound to happen or is this strategy starting to show cracks? I don't know to be honest so I'll keep at it to find out. Here's the chart after the weekend - as you can see, the bank has taken a swift nosedive down to 200 (to a €10 stake):
It's bloody typical that I hit this as soon as I start the challenge but sure what can ye do?
On a positive note, I won a nice couple of quid on Tammy's Hill yesterday which was one of the form study bets. That's been going OK of late so at least that's something. I've no bets on that today however. Anyhow... it's with a bit of a heart that I put today's inplay trades after such a horrible weekend but I'll keep at it for now:
I once had five wins in-a-row and to get nine losers is absolutely rotten but it happened and I have to deal with it. Is it one of those unlucky streaks that are bound to happen or is this strategy starting to show cracks? I don't know to be honest so I'll keep at it to find out. Here's the chart after the weekend - as you can see, the bank has taken a swift nosedive down to 200 (to a €10 stake):
It's bloody typical that I hit this as soon as I start the challenge but sure what can ye do?
On a positive note, I won a nice couple of quid on Tammy's Hill yesterday which was one of the form study bets. That's been going OK of late so at least that's something. I've no bets on that today however. Anyhow... it's with a bit of a heart that I put today's inplay trades after such a horrible weekend but I'll keep at it for now:
Sunday, May 6, 2012
Poor run
Going through a poor run on the Inplay lays at the moment. Not sure if it's anything to worry about but it would have to happen when I started my challenge!
After 338 trades, here's my progress to a €10 stake. You can see that it peaked at over €300 but has dropped back down over the past few days. Hope it picks up again soon. I'm still toying with the idea of excluding higher prices horses but I want to build up a bit more data just to be sure:
Just one traditional back bet for Monday:
4:40 Down Royal: Tammy's Hill
And here's Monday's inplay trades:
After 338 trades, here's my progress to a €10 stake. You can see that it peaked at over €300 but has dropped back down over the past few days. Hope it picks up again soon. I'm still toying with the idea of excluding higher prices horses but I want to build up a bit more data just to be sure:
Just one traditional back bet for Monday:
4:40 Down Royal: Tammy's Hill
And here's Monday's inplay trades:
Sunday
Rushing to get some stuff done so no time for a write up.
Poor day yesterday with a 3pt loss on the inplay trades. Have three for today. Just one form study bet but Fort Bastion (1.50 Salis) is so short it's hardly worth putting it up.
Today's inplay trades:
Poor day yesterday with a 3pt loss on the inplay trades. Have three for today. Just one form study bet but Fort Bastion (1.50 Salis) is so short it's hardly worth putting it up.
Today's inplay trades:
Saturday, May 5, 2012
Great weekend of sport
What a cracking weekend we have in store - the 2,000 Guineas, the 1,000 Guineas, the FA Cup and United/City both playing crucial games. Thankfully, it falls on a bank holiday so I'll be kicking the feet up in front of the box this weekend.
It was a decent enough day yesterday on the inplay lays with two points profit. That brings the challenge back into profit. I've a very busy day on them today, possibly the busiest I've had on them so far so fingers cross my Betfair balance has increased by close of business today.
Yesterday's challenge P&L:
Today's traditional back bets:
Today's inplay trades:
It was a decent enough day yesterday on the inplay lays with two points profit. That brings the challenge back into profit. I've a very busy day on them today, possibly the busiest I've had on them so far so fingers cross my Betfair balance has increased by close of business today.
Yesterday's challenge P&L:
Today's traditional back bets:
Today's inplay trades:
Friday, May 4, 2012
Inplay Betfair trades, Marketpreads, 2000 Guineas
A bit of a funny day yesterday with the first three inplay trades winning their race. Would've made a nice treble! These don't win or lose me money so it didn't make any difference. I then had a successful trade but two losing ones later in the evening so overall I'm down just a point for the day. It's a busy enough day on the inplay trades today (posted below).
Regarding the financial trading, I'm glad to see MarkeSpreads back up an running. Hopefully, they've sorted out their issues and perhaps it's actually a safer place for your money now following all the external reviews. Having been away from the financial markets for about a month, I feel a bit out of the zone at the moment. I'm going to start back at it next week maybe but I'll have to scale back in using small stakes until I get a feel for the markets again. It's amazing how out of touch you can become after such a short time.
The winning streak of nine on my regular back bets came to an end yesterday - it would have been nice to get ten in a row but I'm happy enough with how it's going lately. Just one traditional back bet today, pictured below.
We've a great weekend of sport with the FA Cup, 2000 Guineas and 1000 Guineas. I'm currently working on an article for tomorrow's Irish Independent and haven't yet made up my mind who I'll back. Copy has to be in in a few hours though so I'll have to get off the fence soon!
Yesterday's P&L:
Today's traditional back bet:
Today's inplay trades:
Regarding the financial trading, I'm glad to see MarkeSpreads back up an running. Hopefully, they've sorted out their issues and perhaps it's actually a safer place for your money now following all the external reviews. Having been away from the financial markets for about a month, I feel a bit out of the zone at the moment. I'm going to start back at it next week maybe but I'll have to scale back in using small stakes until I get a feel for the markets again. It's amazing how out of touch you can become after such a short time.
The winning streak of nine on my regular back bets came to an end yesterday - it would have been nice to get ten in a row but I'm happy enough with how it's going lately. Just one traditional back bet today, pictured below.
We've a great weekend of sport with the FA Cup, 2000 Guineas and 1000 Guineas. I'm currently working on an article for tomorrow's Irish Independent and haven't yet made up my mind who I'll back. Copy has to be in in a few hours though so I'll have to get off the fence soon!
Yesterday's P&L:
Today's traditional back bet:
Today's inplay trades:
Thursday, May 3, 2012
Lift off
Well, I'm going to kick off the €500 to €5000 challenge today. Of course, it would be nice to get a good start and hit the ground running but this is a long term project so the individual results are not too important as long as the trend is upwards over time.
As mentioned before, the main site www.waynebaileyracing.com will be closing. I don't see any point in paying the upkeep and the host when I can simply put stuff on the blog for free. I've had some emails from people that follow the bets there wondering what will happen. I'll be posting them here. Don't get them confused with the inplay trades though. The inplay trades are not for backing in the traditional way. For more on the inplay trades and how they work, see my previous post about the €500 to €5000 challenge.
I've left my car in to be fixed the other day - there's a few things wrong with it including an exhaust leak. It's a good job I dropped it in, this can be quite dangerous apparently! If the fumes get inside your car, they can make you drowsy or in extreme cases even kill. So while I was complaining when the car broke down, it was a blessing in disguise as the mechanic noticed the leak while looking at something else. Hope it won't cost too much but I've to drop up now to see.
OK then,
Firstly, here's today's traditional back bet:
Lord Tomnoddy is up against it with Shoegazer trading around 1.44. But that horse seems a bit short and still has to prove himself over fences. It would be great to get a win today for Lord Tomnoddy, I've hit a record 9 wins in-a-row on these form study bets so it would be fantastic to get ten.
Regarding the inplay trades, I've a few for today. I've some concerns that some of these are at the shorter end of the market (higher priced horses have done better so far) but I'll see how it goes. Best of luck with your trading/betting today:
As mentioned before, the main site www.waynebaileyracing.com will be closing. I don't see any point in paying the upkeep and the host when I can simply put stuff on the blog for free. I've had some emails from people that follow the bets there wondering what will happen. I'll be posting them here. Don't get them confused with the inplay trades though. The inplay trades are not for backing in the traditional way. For more on the inplay trades and how they work, see my previous post about the €500 to €5000 challenge.
I've left my car in to be fixed the other day - there's a few things wrong with it including an exhaust leak. It's a good job I dropped it in, this can be quite dangerous apparently! If the fumes get inside your car, they can make you drowsy or in extreme cases even kill. So while I was complaining when the car broke down, it was a blessing in disguise as the mechanic noticed the leak while looking at something else. Hope it won't cost too much but I've to drop up now to see.
OK then,
Firstly, here's today's traditional back bet:
Lord Tomnoddy is up against it with Shoegazer trading around 1.44. But that horse seems a bit short and still has to prove himself over fences. It would be great to get a win today for Lord Tomnoddy, I've hit a record 9 wins in-a-row on these form study bets so it would be fantastic to get ten.
Regarding the inplay trades, I've a few for today. I've some concerns that some of these are at the shorter end of the market (higher priced horses have done better so far) but I'll see how it goes. Best of luck with your trading/betting today:
Wednesday, May 2, 2012
€500 to €5,000 challenge
Right, it’s been a while
since I took on a betting or trading challenge so it’s time to get my
arse in gear and kick on with something new.
THE CHALLENGE
Turn €500 into €5000 by trading on Betfair.
Anyone who dabbles in stocks and shares as I do will tell you how
difficult it is to double your bank, never mind increase it ten-fold so I
guess it is a little ambitious. Actually, it’s very ambitious -
ridiculously so. However, I’ve been able to make
money on the exchanges in the past doing similar challenges and I’ve
nothing to lose by aiming high other than my credibility and honour and
reputation; but most of that’s long gone anyway.
Sometimes it’s a bit of fun to set goals and targets; often we can be trading away with no real goal or plan and it can become quite boring to be honest. So whether I win or lose, it should prove lively. I’ll be completely honest with the results and post screenshots along the way on the main blog page. I’ll also post the selections on the blog each day although if this turns out to be successful and I find that a lot of people are doing them, I may change my mind - as too many people doing the same thing can affect the market. It’s actually not as hard as you might think to move a market and in some of the very lightly traded events, a few hundred can shuffle things up.
Sometimes it’s a bit of fun to set goals and targets; often we can be trading away with no real goal or plan and it can become quite boring to be honest. So whether I win or lose, it should prove lively. I’ll be completely honest with the results and post screenshots along the way on the main blog page. I’ll also post the selections on the blog each day although if this turns out to be successful and I find that a lot of people are doing them, I may change my mind - as too many people doing the same thing can affect the market. It’s actually not as hard as you might think to move a market and in some of the very lightly traded events, a few hundred can shuffle things up.
TARGETS
I’m going to use my in-running trading strategy to try make the
money. I’ve no real timeframe on this but it would be nice to have it
done in a year. On average, the inplay trades strategy has increased my
bank by around 50% per month although it must
be said that it hasn’t been running all that long. 50% per month would
be amazing but I doubt it is sustainable so I’ll aim for roughly 20% per
month. Again, when compared to trading financials this sort of return
is, as the Americans might say, awesome. Perhaps
its over-ambitious but sure what the heck, it’s all for a bit of craic.
While it’s never, ever, this smooth, here’s what an increase of 20% of the bank per month would look like:
| May-12 | €500.00 |
| Jun-12 | €600.00 |
| Jul-12 | €720.00 |
| Aug-12 | €864.00 |
| Sep-12 | €1,036.80 |
| Oct-12 | €1,244.16 |
| Nov-12 | €1,492.99 |
| Dec-12 | €1,791.59 |
| Jan-13 | €2,149.91 |
| Feb-13 | €2,579.89 |
| Mar-13 | €3,095.87 |
| Apr-13 | €3,715.04 |
| May-13 | €4,458.05 |
| Jun-13 | €5,349.66 |
So as you can see, it would take about a year – but I’m around the block long enough to realise that things are never so simple.
STRATEGY
The horses I’ll be trading are part of my ‘inplay trades’ strategy that I've been posting on here the past few weeks.
I've been recording this to just a €10 stake but it's going well. After 309 bets, I'm up to just under €300 profit:
Basically, I try to find horses than generally tend to run very well mid race (thus dropping in price) but find little when asked in the business end of the race. I back them at Betfair SP and then lay them at half that price in-running (with double the back stake). To find my selections, I basically watch a load of races and also study the formbook to try find a horses running style.
I've been recording this to just a €10 stake but it's going well. After 309 bets, I'm up to just under €300 profit:
Basically, I try to find horses than generally tend to run very well mid race (thus dropping in price) but find little when asked in the business end of the race. I back them at Betfair SP and then lay them at half that price in-running (with double the back stake). To find my selections, I basically watch a load of races and also study the formbook to try find a horses running style.
For example, let’s say a selection is backed with €10 at a Betfair
SP of 11.0, I would then put in an order to lay the horse at 6.0
in-running which is half the price.
(Don’t forget that Betfair is in decimal prices so you simply don’t
divide eleven by two. Rather, you convert to fractions. So half of 10/1
is 5/1, which in turn converts back to 6.0).
So if I back a selection at 11.0 with €10 and then put in a lay order at 6.0 for €20, there are three possible outcomes:
1.) The horse never trades as low as 6.0 in-running and loses the race. In this case, I lose €10.
2.) The horses price drops to 6.0 in-running but then goes on to lose the race. In this case, I lose the €10 back stake, but win €20 for the lay. This is the desired outcome as I gain €10 overall (excluding commission).
3.) The horse actually wins the race. In this case, I don’t win or lose money as I earn €100 for the back bet but lose as much on the lay bet. I like to call these ‘level’ trades.
2.) The horses price drops to 6.0 in-running but then goes on to lose the race. In this case, I lose the €10 back stake, but win €20 for the lay. This is the desired outcome as I gain €10 overall (excluding commission).
3.) The horse actually wins the race. In this case, I don’t win or lose money as I earn €100 for the back bet but lose as much on the lay bet. I like to call these ‘level’ trades.
Obviously, option one is the worst case scenario. Option two is
what I want to happen, and option three doesn’t cost me anything.
I may tweak this over time but I’ll be sure to post any changes
here. For example, so far higher priced horses have proved more
successful and if this continues to be the case, I may focus on
outsiders only. I’ll see how it goes.
STAKING
Staking is based on the KELLY CRITERION. For more information on this and a Kelly calculator, see THIS
PAGE.
Kelly Criterion has got a little bit of stick lately on some forums
etc but it’s mainly from people who use it on losing systems and don’t
understand the maths behind it. It's not perfect, but it can maximise
returns during a good run and keep you relatively
protected during the bad times. I guess it's a more complicated way of
using a percentage of the bank. While I accept that Kelly has a lot of flaws, I need some sort of aggressive, compounded staking plan if I'm to turn a monkey into five large.
I’ll be adjusting my data daily to come up with the stakes. The Kelly formula needs to know your:
Bankroll – this will be the starting €500 and it will be updated each day.
Odds offered – a winning trade earns me 1pt and a losing trade costs me 1pt therefore the odds offered are even money. However, to account for commission, I’m going to use slightly shorter odds in the calculation of 19/20 (or 1.95).
Odds offered – a winning trade earns me 1pt and a losing trade costs me 1pt therefore the odds offered are even money. However, to account for commission, I’m going to use slightly shorter odds in the calculation of 19/20 (or 1.95).
Estimated probability of winning: Rather than estimating,
I’m simply going to use my past results and adjust the figure as we go
along. If we exclude the level bets, I’m currently hitting around 58%
wins and 42% losers so I’ll start off with 58%
as the estimated probability of winning. As I say, this figure will be
adjusted as the data builds.
Finally, the stake recommended by the Kelly Criterion WILL BE HALVED. This will allow for some flexibility and to weather some of the inevitable storms.
Questions, comments and indeed criticism is welcome so feel free to post a comment.
I’ll be updating this most days on the main blog page.
I’ll be updating this most days on the main blog page.
The challenge starts on Thursday, 3rd May 2012.
This time next year Rodney…..
Good day yesterday
Three winning trades and a level made it a good day yesterday.
Also, on the form study bets, I've hit a record 8 winners in-a-row. I've been putting them on the main site - but I'm actually going to close that site. Microsoft and the hosts are looking for quite a bit of money for it and there's no real point in having two sites when the blog is free. So from here on in, I'll be putting them up here, along with the inplay trades.
Only one bet on that today I'm afraid, the very short priced Fallen For You in the 2.35 at Kempton.
Here's today's inplay trades. Note to anyone coming here new from the main site - these are NOT regular back bets, they are inplay trades.
Also, on the form study bets, I've hit a record 8 winners in-a-row. I've been putting them on the main site - but I'm actually going to close that site. Microsoft and the hosts are looking for quite a bit of money for it and there's no real point in having two sites when the blog is free. So from here on in, I'll be putting them up here, along with the inplay trades.
Only one bet on that today I'm afraid, the very short priced Fallen For You in the 2.35 at Kempton.
Here's today's inplay trades. Note to anyone coming here new from the main site - these are NOT regular back bets, they are inplay trades.
Tuesday, May 1, 2012
Penny for the May bush
Anyone remember that tradition? As children, we used to decorate the May bush and go door to door collecting money. Haven't seen any kids do that in years sadly. Anyway, it's a new month and it's pissing rain. What's new!
Hurrying out the door so don't have much time for a write up. Thinking of starting a €500 to €5000 challenge later this week - will post more when I have time. Today's inplay trades:
Hurrying out the door so don't have much time for a write up. Thinking of starting a €500 to €5000 challenge later this week - will post more when I have time. Today's inplay trades:
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