Trading software

Saturday, February 21, 2015

Winter Derby Trial at Lingfield

I quite like this race - it usually attracts the same sort of horses each year and the form usually stands up. It's been one for the punters with the last seven favourites all winning. It could be close, but I fancy Grandeur to win this for the second year in-a-row. Today's column:

http://www.independent.ie/sport/horse-racing/grandeur-to-punish-bookies-for-second-time-at-lingfield-31009894.html


Wayne's book Sports Trading on Betfair is out now:
 

Wednesday, February 4, 2015

Living dangerously (part two)

Hi folks, just an update on the 'Living Dangerously' post I made a while back.

In short, it's a strategy whereby I lay big priced horses in the place markets based on my ratings. It's a risky strategy as it involves laying at prices of up to 100.0. You can read more by clicking on the link above.

Anyhow, here's a quick review. It's still in the black although I have hit a rough patch at the moment. Despite this, I still think it has plenty of potential and am happy with how it is going. I've earned just over a monkey (€500) from 787 bets to a €2 stake (I began in November) but as I say, it's been a little tricky lately. Still, I'll keep at it and if I earn another monkey in that space of time again, I'll be well pleased.

The stats:

Bets: 787
Unsuccessful bets: 15
Strike rate: 98.09%
Total profit: €501.75
The chart:



I'll keep going with it anyhow and update the blog now and again.

Wayne


Wayne's book Sports Trading on Betfair is out now:

Wednesday, January 14, 2015

Sports Trading on Betfair book: Free sample chapter

Hi all,

As most of you know, I published a book a few months ago called Sports Trading on Betfair. Thankfully, it's selling well and the response has been good. For those thinking about buying it, I've put up a sneak preview on my site.

To download this free sample chapter, click here:

FREE SAMPLE CHAPTER FROM 'SPORTS TRADING ON BETFAIR' BOOK

 Once again, thanks to those who have been in touch by email and best wishes for 2015.

Wayne

Thursday, January 1, 2015

New Year 2015: thoughts and ideas

Happy New Year folks, hope 2014 was a profitable one.


I’ve often said that I’m not one for new year resolutions – January is just another month and I believe new goals and ideas should be set all the way through the year. In fact, people usually set themselves too many goals all at once every January, so much so that the changes become overwhelming, and thus they fail to continue with their resolutions.


But I suppose us humans like to compartmentalise our time on this earth, and January is as good a time as any to review the year just gone and look ahead so here’s a few thoughts about where I’m at and what I’d like to do. As I say, all of this won’t start on the 1st January, rather, I’ll come back to this list throughout the year and add changes over time.


Book and newspaper column
I published my first book in 2014 ‘Sports Trading on Betfair’ which was a huge achievement. As a librarian by profession, I suppose I’ve always wanted to write a book but it was a hell of a lot harder than I anticipated. For 2015, I want to keep promoting it as the sales have been good. I’m toying with the idea of writing a less specialised book along the lines of ‘how to pick winners’ or ‘how to profit from horseracing’. I think a less technical, less graphic-heavy book would be much easier to write but I’ll hold off for now and concentrate on selling the one I have out already. Something to ponder though.
As always, I want to keep my Irish Independent column in the black for the upcoming year. Writing is something I enjoy doing and would like to do more of it. I'm very lucky to have a piece in a national newspaper each week so fingers crossed I get some good winners in 2015.

Financial trading
I went to cash some time back and have put this on the backburner. No big reason and I was showing a modest profit – it’s just time. As always, time is limited so I’m concentrating on making money on the exchanges, rather than trying to spread myself too thinly. It’s definitely something I continue to have an interest in though, and it’s definitely something I’ll come back to. I may look at some strategies which don’t take up a lot of time later on this year and build again from there.

Betfair trading and betting
Once again, getting time is the key but I hope to do as much as possible, especially in the summer months. I’ve been working on some automated trading setups which have proved slightly profitable so far so I’m keen to work on those in 2015. Ironically, I didn’t get a huge amount of trading done in 2014 as I was writing the book about it but I hope that can change in 2015.

Wayne Bailey Racing
It’s been a very good year for my tipping website www.waynebaileyracing.com with a profit of around €1888 to a €10 stake. I’ve quite a few loyal subscribers and you always get the odd few each month that only hang around for a while. But each subscription is a few quid so I’m hoping to continue to build the figures. I've been the top lay tipster for over a year now on Racing Index (a tipster proofing site) which helps a lot so I want to maintain my position at the head of the table.

New betting strategies
Alongside my traditional betting and trading, I came up with some new betting strategies in 2014. I want to continue to try these out and improve on them in 2015. If I can automate them, all the better. One that has potential is the laying certain outsiders in the place markets if they match my criteria (explained HERE). I’ve only been doing it for about a month but I’ve the best part of a monkey earned using a €2 stake. That was over 357 bets. Of course, all it takes is a couple of bad bets to knock me back down but as you can see, the graph is going in the right direction and I’m building a bit of a buffer for when the bad times come:

 
Health and fitness
Two major goals were ticked off in 2014. I completed the Insanity workout which was a damn hard few weeks. I also ran the Dublin marathon which was a good achievement too. People often say they get addicted to marathons but for me, it was very tough on the legs which always seem to pain once I run past 15K. I’ll never say never but I’m not in any rush to do another marathon and you have to listen to the body or else you will do it damage. That said, the feeling crossing the finish line was fantastic and you never know. For 2015, I will continue to keep fit and tone up using some light dumbbell work and running 5K two or three times a week. Last year, I found out I had high cholesterol so I had to change my diet to get it down. This means eating a lot healthier which is no bad thing and I’ll continue to improve my diet and watch the alcohol intake too in 2015.

That’s about it really – as I say, it’s not a good idea to start a load of goals in the first week in January. Too much change is overwhelming and unsustainable. If you are making any changes this year, do it gradually and add something new every month or so.

Thanks for all the comments, emails and well wishes in 2014, I hope all readers have an even better year in 2015.

Wayne




Wayne's book Sports Trading on Betfair is out now:

Tuesday, December 23, 2014

Happy Christmas

Morning all,

It's the calm before the storm. There's no racing for three days and then we hit St Stephens' Day which is full on. Happy Christmas to all readers, I hope it's a happy and peaceful one.

Wayne


Saturday, December 20, 2014

Festive finances

Morning folks, it's the last big betting weekend before Christmas so here's hoping a few quid is earned. Looking forward to Leopardstown this year - I'll probably head up for a couple of days although I usually avoid St Stephens' Day as I like chilling out at home and watching the King George. Here's today's Irish Independent article - hopefully a few quid can be added to the festive betting pot:


Wayne's book Sports Trading on Betfair is out now:

Friday, November 28, 2014

Living dangerously



I've always wondered who the headcases are that lay horses in the place markets at large prices. 

Is there money to be made? Possibly, so I decided to join them and see. 

I've back tested a ratings system I've created which lays horses in the place markets if they meet certain criteria - most horses are large prices although I do have a cut-off at 100.0. 

Basically, the ratings system was created by myself and the rules are that the bottom quarter of the list of rated horses are layed in the place market. In other words, the worst horses (according to my ratings) are layed. The results are very impressive to the minimum €2 stake, producing a grand or two per year (assuming commission is 5%):



Of course, backtesting is one thing and it's always different in real life so I've been doing this in a separate account for the last seven days and already, it's produced over €120 in profit:



That looks great on paper but I suppose it masks the risks. I've had two big losers during that period (one at 55.0 and one at 22.0) but it's kept in profit. However, had I hit a 200.0 shot, I'd be well in the red now. [EDIT: I mean to say a €200 loser which is the 100.0 cut off at the minimum €2 stake).
The big losers will come eventually and it's really a matter of hoping that an extraordinary amount of them don't come along (which is possible but unlikely). When I hit a big loser, it would be nice to have built up a bank to cover it but we'll see how it goes.
It requires plenty of bottle to lay at those prices but so far, so good. I'm not counting my chickens as I know that the worst case scenario is always possible but I'll keep going for a bit and report on progress.



***
Wayne's book Sports Trading on Betfair is out now: