Trading software

Friday, November 28, 2014

Living dangerously

I've always wondered who the headcases are that lay horses in the place markets at large prices. 

Is there money to be made? Possibly, so I decided to join them and see. 

I've back tested a ratings system I've created which lays horses in the place markets if they meet certain criteria - most horses are large prices although I do have a cut-off at 100.0. 

Basically, the ratings system was created by myself and the rules are that the bottom quarter of the list of rated horses are layed in the place market. In other words, the worst horses (according to my ratings) are layed. The results are very impressive to the minimum €2 stake, producing a grand or two per year (assuming commission is 5%):

Of course, backtesting is one thing and it's always different in real life so I've been doing this in a separate account for the last seven days and already, it's produced over €120 in profit:

That looks great on paper but I suppose it masks the risks. I've had two big losers during that period (one at 55.0 and one at 22.0) but it's kept in profit. However, had I hit a 200.0 shot, I'd be well in the red now. [EDIT: I mean to say a €200 loser which is the 100.0 cut off at the minimum €2 stake).
The big losers will come eventually and it's really a matter of hoping that an extraordinary amount of them don't come along (which is possible but unlikely). When I hit a big loser, it would be nice to have built up a bank to cover it but we'll see how it goes.
It requires plenty of bottle to lay at those prices but so far, so good. I'm not counting my chickens as I know that the worst case scenario is always possible but I'll keep going for a bit and report on progress.

Wayne's book Sports Trading on Betfair is out now:

Saturday, November 22, 2014

The Betfair Chase at Haydock

Afternoon all,

Looking forward to the Betfair Chase at Haydock. Looks super competitive and a good case could be made for half the field. Should be a good one - here's today's Irish Independent column:

Saturday, November 8, 2014

The November Handicap at Doncaster

 Can't believe we are at the end of the flat season already! Today's Doncaster Handicap looks as tricky as ever. Not a race for heavy punting, but we'll give it a spin nonetheless. Here's today's column:


Wayne's book Sports Trading on Betfair is out now:

Saturday, November 1, 2014

The National Hunt is back

Good morning all,

The National Hunt season kicks back in proper today with a Grade One from Down Royal and the Charlie Hall at Wetherby. A good day ahead hopefully - here's today's Irish Independent article:


Wayne's book Sports Trading on Betfair is out now:

Tuesday, October 28, 2014

The Dublin Marathon

Yesterday, I completed one of my long terms goals and ran a marathon. It was very tough, especially considering I was a groomsman at a wedding over the weekend and had a fair few pints.

I'm absolutely wrecked today but I feel good about myself as it took a lot of time and commitment to do the training. Not sure if I'd do it again in a hurry although you never know. But I have that box ticked on the 'to do' list and that's quite satisfying.  I learned quite a lot about my own body through the whole process and I've a much better appreciation of what I'm capable of - but just as importantly, I know I have certain limits too. Sometimes it's good to push the limits to see if your assumptions about yourself are correct. I also have a better appreciation of how those poor long distance chasers must feel!

At the finish line yesterday


Wayne's book Sports Trading on Betfair is out now:

Saturday, October 25, 2014

The Racing Post Trophy

Morning folks,

Here's today's Irish Indpendent article. Have a good weekend,