Trading software

Tuesday, January 5, 2016

2016 betting and trading





Well, that’s another year done and dusted. 

As I always say each year, I’m not really one for New Year resolutions – I prefer to add changes slowly along the way each couple of months. Most people’s resolutions go out the window after a few weeks but that’s generally because they take on too much on in one go. If you are thinking of making some changes this year, start with one or two small things and set a reminder in your calendar a month or two away to add another, once you are used to the first changes. Works for me anyhow. All that said, I guess January is as good a time as any to look back on the year just gone and have a think about what’s in store:

Book(s)
2015 was a good one with regard to the book I wrote – Sports Trading on Betfair. The Racing Post took over the title and now publish it in a smaller compact version which is great. Although it was very difficult and time consuming writing a book, I quite enjoyed the process and have started on another book. In fact, I’m about halfway through the second book. The new book is less specialised and is basically about horse racing betting and how to pick winners. The working title is ‘Professional Betting’ and I’m going to explain around seven or eight different strategies that I use each day to pick my horses. I recorded each bet for the year 2015 and I’ll include the actual bets and P&L at the back. I hope it will have a wider reach then the specialised Sports Trading on Betfair although it would also have more competition. I’m hoping to have it out in the spring, maybe around March/April all going well. 

Irish Independent column
The Indo column finished the year about 38 points in profit to Betfair SP and around 4pts in profit to traditional SP. I mentioned this in Saturday’s column but it just goes to show how shopping around for prices can make a huge difference in this game. The margins are so tight and you really need to have a few accounts with various bookmakers and exchanges if you want to have any hope of securing a profit. My own records show that more than eight times out of ten, better prices were available on Betfair exchange (even considering commission) compared to the bookmakers so that’s food for thought if you are loyal or slightly lazy and always use the one bookmaker. A strategy that is breakeven to SP may well be quite profitable on the exchanges. Obviously, the goal for 2016 is to keep the column in profit and it would be great to beat the 2015 figure of 38 points or so. 

Financial trading
I haven’t actually got back into this yet. Time and money really. It’s been an expensive year for us as a couple with lots of unexpected bills. We are also trying to save for a deposit for a mortgage so I don’t have much spare cash floating about for the financial trading right now. It’s definitely something I remain interested in though and will no doubt come back to it at some stage or other. 

Betfair trading/betting
One of my new year resolutions is to find time to get back into trading as I haven’t been at it too much lately. It’s a little easier to find time in the summer when you have the evening races but I’ve had so much on midweek lately that I can only grab a quick market here or there. That never really works too well though, and you can find yourself not ‘tuned in’ when you only trade sporadically. So for the new year, I’ve set myself a goal to trade at least 20 markets per week (or at least look at 20 markets per week to see if any opportunities exist). Consistency is key when trading so I’m trying to get back to it on a more structured level. 20 markets is not a whole lot at all but I'm really trying to focus on quality rather than quantity here and only work on markets which I find good to trade and have worked for me in the past.

New betting strategies
I’ve had to cut back my portfolio a little – as mentioned, it was an expensive year for us bills wise – the two cars gave up on us meaning I’d to buy a new one, the wife had some expensive dental work done on her teeth and a whole load of other bills came along. All told, I think I withdrew around five grand from Betfair to pay for some of the bills so things like the outsider place strategy etc. which takes up a lot of liability have had to be put on the backburner as I reduced my banks.  As I build up my tank again, I’ll add more strategies. It’s frustrating to have to withdraw money to pay for bills but on the other side of the coin, isn’t that the whole point of this? Extra money for those rainy days and all that.

Health and fitness.
No major goals here for 2016 only to get back to going running 3 times per week (I must admit I’ve been a bit lazy and have cut it down to two recently). I’m also trying to keep the cholesterol down and have decided to have a vegan day once a week (don’t laugh!) just to see. I read a book called The China Study which basically says a whole food plant-based diet is best for us although I don’t think I could go the whole hog. This is a start although I haven’t turned into some sort of crusty and still have a good steak and a bottle of wine every so often. 

Wayne Bailey Racing
It was another profitable year for my tipping website www.waynebaileyracing.com with a profit of just under €600 to a €10 stake (see chart below from the proofing website Racing Index). That’s a healthy return although it’s disappointing that it is less than the 2014 return. I’ll keep it going anyway and see what 2016 brings. Around November, I began proofing some back bets to Racing Index with a view to adding them to my website should they be successful. They got off to a flyer and then absolutely tanked and remain around breakeven right now! I’ll continue with those for a while though, as they have proved profitable for me long term.

Anyway, that’s about it for now. Thanks for the comments and emails in 2015 and I hope 2016 is profitable for you.

Wayne

Sunday, August 16, 2015

Sports Trading on Betfair now published by Raceform (£12.99)

Hi all,

I'm delighted to announce that my book 'Sports Trading on Betfair' is now published by Raceform.

It's been produced for the much cheaper price of £12.99 and is available on the Racing Post site (click on image below). It's also available as a Kindle on Amazon.

Click here for a review of the book.

Thanks for all your support with this project!

Wayne

http://shop1.racingpost.com/Sports-Trading-On-Betfair-by-Wayne-Bailey-p/sportbet.htm

Sunday, July 12, 2015

Standing still (and Conor McGregor)

Hi folks, a very quick update on my 'living dangerously' strategy which I've spoke of recently.

It's hit a lull at the moment and seems to be one step forward and one step back. I don't think it's anything to worry about too much and standing still is better than going backwards. But it's a little frustrating as it hasn't yet kicked off on the €3 stakes.

The bank's all time high was €1,352. It now stands at €1,128 having hit a few losers in a row which will happen from time to time.

As I say, I'm not going to panic but I would like to see it kick back into life again. Here's the stats:


Number of bets: 2473
Losing bets: 58
Strike Rate: 97.65%
Average stake: €2.13
Current stake: €3.00
Average price of bet: 43.23
Average price of losing bets: 31.01
Total profit: €1,128.64
**
In other news,  it was fantastic to see Conor McGregor win last night against Chad Mendes. At one stage, it looked like he was in trouble but he pulled it out of the bag and landed the killer blow. I know a lot of this is pure entertainment as some people can't warm to it but I'm starting to enjoy it more. Betting wise, McGregor was 4/7 but I'm not sure I'd be confident having a bet on that sport just yet. We get such a lob sided view of things here in Ireland and you barely hear much about McGregor's opponents. But it might be worth betting on in the future as it gets bigger and more exposure. Anyway, well done McGregor, you done the country proud.



 ***
http://shop1.racingpost.com/Sports-Trading-On-Betfair-by-Wayne-Bailey-p/sportbet.htm

Wayne Bailey's book 'Sports Trading on Betfair' now availble. Click on the above image for more.

Wednesday, June 10, 2015

A GRAND little system


Good morning folks, it's been a while since I put up a blog. I was away in Portugal last week so I haven't been doing much betting although I got back to it yesterday. Portugal was great craic - I went away with 12 lads from the local pub so it was plenty of fun and great weather too. It was a place called Albefeira (in the Algarve) and the weather was just perfect, around 25-30 degrees each day:



I'm not trading as much as I'd like due to time restrictions but I'll be back to it soon. I have automated some of my strategies and that's working out OK. Automation is a road I want to look into further - there's something great about heading out for the day, letting the computer do its thing according to your rules, and then (hopefully) coming home to a slightly bigger Betfair balance. But of course, automation comes with loads of extra risks and nothing comes easy. Plenty of stuff can't be automated and you can never account for those random events that happen when trading. But still, if you take the lead from the financial trading world (where there's a huge amount of automation), there are bound to be some opportunities with a bit of hard work. I'll keep working on it.

As regards the living dangerously strategy which I've posted about a few times before - it's going very well and I have the profit over the €1,000 mark at this stage. Basically, it involves rating horses, then laying the worst rated horses in the place market. It's risky though, as most horses are high prices although I do have a cut off at 100.0. Until very recently, I had been using €2 stakes but I've upped it to €3 since the bank hit one large (€1,000). Of course, I don't always get my money fully matched. Sometimes I will get a quid or two matched so the average stake has been €1.98. I'm leaving orders under the price a few minutes before the off and if it's not matched, that's fine. At this end of the market, you can't just take any old price just because it's an outsider. You have to be sensitive to getting the best price just as you would were it an odds on shot.
While I haven't withdrawn the money, that's enough to cover my holiday which is what it's all about. It makes the long hours, late nights and early mornings worth it.

I'd love to get it to €2,000 soon at which point I'll increase the stakes to €4 but it's one step at a time and I'm acutely aware that a couple of bad bets in a row will wipe out hundreds from the bank. I'll keep the blog updated with progress. Here's a snapshot and a chart of how it's been going so far:




Number of bets: 2081
Losing bets: 44
Strike Rate: 97.89%
Average stake: €1.98
Current stake: €3.00
Average price of bet: 44.17
Average price of losing bets: 34.39
Total profit: €1,090.55

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Sunday, April 26, 2015

Living dangerously (part 3)

It's been a while since I updated progress on my 'Living Dangerously' strategy where I lay high priced horses in the place markets based on my ratings.


It took a bit of a nosedive but has recovered and is currently showing a profit of €672.46 to a €2 fixed lay stake.

The stats are:

Stake: €2 
Bets: 1511
 Unsuccessful bets:32
Strike rate: 97.88%
Total profit: €674.17

The chart:
Overall I'm quite happy with it and the profit of nearly 700 quid is nice to have although I've resisted the urge to up the stakes, especially since I went through a bad patch. It got off to a flyer and it's interesting to see it on a chart because had I started doing this at the beginning of the bad patch where it lost 200 quid, it's possible that I might have scrapped it. That's why it's important to let the data build and not to get too excited by a good start, or too downbeat about a poor run.

I might raise the stakes to €3 if or when I hit €1,000 profit. It's a slow burner but I'm happy to let it run in the background. A grand is the medium term target - it would be nice to reach that figure by the end of June but you can't really plan like that as a few losing bets in-a-row knocks you back quickly as you can see from the chart. I'll report back again soon on progress.

Wayne



Wednesday, April 22, 2015

Racing Post review of my book

The Racing Post reviewed my book Sports Trading on Betfair on Sunday and I'm delighted to say that they seemed to like it a lot.

The full text of the review is below. Don't forget that a free chapter is available to download on www.waynebaileyracing.com/book
 
 

The Racing Post, Sunday 19th April 2015

A comprehensive guide for both beginner and expert

Wayne Bailey has been busy. Although still only in his mid-30s, the Dublin resident has crammed plenty into his years. A librarian by trade, his is an accredited Betfair trainer (someone endorsed by the company to show others how the exchange works at events in the UK and Ireland) who graduated from university with a degree in social sciences and information studies before completing a diploma in financial trading.
More recently he had studied psychology and the behaviour of the human mind and also spent time as a professional gambler, as well as writing a betting column for the Irish Independent. Somehow he has also found time to pen the wonderful Sports Trading on Betfair.

Bailey's background makes him the perfect person to write a book on carving out a living trading the often frenetic markets on the betting exchanges and he does not disappoint.

In 190-odd pages of A4, Bailey manages to cover all you need to know. Starting with a history of the exchanges and the very basics, the author swiftly moves on to more complex ideas such as scalp trading and momentum swing trading in a manner which, refreshingly, somehow manages the neat trick of being accessible for the novice trader while not patronising those with more experience in the field.
While the early chapters may cover familiar ground for those who have spent plenty of hours slavishly watching the movements of markets, they are still well worth a read because - as the author points out early on - "sometimes even traders are unaware of how important [a series of] numbers are and the difference they can make to their bottom line".

An explanation of crossover points and resistance points, while invaluable to any budding trader, will also prove to be of use to anybody who is looking at using the exchanges just to place a straight back bet.
A chapter on the various software packages available to traders is for once worth a look and not just a glorified advert for the author's favoured tool, and the sections on financial spread trading actually offer something of substance as opposed to just being space fillers.

Laying the field and in-running markets are covered in sufficient detail and while Bailey can hardly lay claim to reinventing the wheel here, at least he does it in such a way that he sows the seeds of the concept in the mind of the reader rather than laying down a list of hard and fast rules. As he is quick to stress: "Selectivity is the key."

With an information-solid background, it is no surprise to learn that Bailey is a meticulous planner - "keeping good record of your trades is imperative" he says, and even the most slapdash of wannabe traders will surely come away from this book in agreement with that sentiment.

Sports trading on Betfair is no get-rich-quick scheme. Nor does it promise to be.
Whit it is, though, is a comprehensive guide that will prove invaluable to those wanting to make their first foray into trading while also proving to be a great reference to those who have already done so.

This is not the first book on the subject and it probably won't be the last. But it does collect a wealth of material for which other books and courses have charged much more. If you can't make back the cover price by using the ideas found here, then trading on the exchanges is probably not for you. The best book of its type so far. 

Paul Eacott

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http://shop1.racingpost.com/Sports-Trading-On-Betfair-by-Wayne-Bailey-p/sportbet.htm

Friday, April 17, 2015

Getting banned by bookmakers

Sorry folks, time for a little rant.

Some gamblers think the idea of getting their account closed down or severely limited by a bookmaker is a badge of honour but for me, it simply highlights how unfair this game actually is.

For those of you that haven't been banned, it's pretty simple. If your account shows a decent profit, it will end up on the bookmaker's radar. Once that happens, they will check you out and monitor your bets. If you continue to win money, they will no longer accept bets from you or else 'limit your account' which means the size of the bets you can place are, say, less than a fiver or tenner on the favourite.

Some friends of mine which I'd describe as 'casual punters' are often astonished at this. They are the type of punter the bookmaker loves - a tenner here on a horse, a fiver there on a match. Fun punters who are never really up in the long term, bar the odd lucky win. But if you happen to put in a bit of graft and earn a few quid, watch out. 

Bet365 are the latest bookie to knock me back - or Bet €3.65 I should say as that's about as much as I can get on with them these days. Here's an email they sent me a couple of weeks ago:



When they say that their services are still available to me, that's actually a joke. They didn't want to say I was banned I guess as it's bad for the image but as an example, here's what happens when I try to back a horse at 50/1:

When you put in your stake - say a tenner, the Bet Max box changes it for you. As you can see, Bet365 will let me have a whopping €0.27 on that horse. Any more and it just won't go through.

Call themselves layers? I say they should grow a pair.

On a horse priced 5/4, they'll let me have as much as €10.80



I miss the old style layers who used to bet their opinion (rather than following the exchanges) and would take a risk. Not too many of them left sadly. The good ones would use their winning customers to mark their cards so in some parts, such customers were welcome.

I'm singling out Bet365 here as they are the latest to limit my account but it's across the board as anyone who tries to get more than a hundred quid on anything will tell you. Again, if anyone thinks that this is some kind of boast, it's certainly not. I've had long term losing accounts which were limited after a string of wins over the space of a week.

Fair enough, bookmakers are businesses and they have to limit risk. I understand all that. But I hate when I hear them try to justify this behaviour by telling us that they simply like to have casual punters which like to have a fun bet. That's their market, they say. Oh really? Well, I know a man who lost over €30K with an Irish bookmaker and never got a tap on the shoulder to tell him to stop. It's pretty much ruined his life. If it were a level playing field, both the big winners plus the big losers would get their stakes limited.

It's the double standards that annoy me. If they are only interested in fun punters who bet a fiver or a tenner on a Saturday, that's fair enough but that's not the case. They also want the poor ba***rd that loses his wages every week and goes home to the missus empty handed. In short, they want it both ways and they have it both ways.

By the way, the total I won with Bet365 was in the region of €950 (over the space of one month). While just under a grand is a lot of money in any man's language, it's hardly JP McManus stuff now is it?

As I say, it's not just Bet365, they all do it. I've had accounts shut down over a few hundred euro, it's not always big money. And yet these same firms go and complain that the exchanges have ruined the industry! A funny bunch, the lot of them.

Anyway, life's too short to complain too much so I'll leave it there. Have a good weekend everyone.

Wayne

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Wayne's book Sports Trading on Betfair is out now:

Sports Trading on Betfair