Friday, April 11, 2014

Some fresh ideas / Scottish Grand National at Ayr

Hi folks,

I've been working on some new ideas and it's been a quite a productive day. On the trading side, I've come up with an idea to automate some strategies which I use whereby bets will be fired in under certain circumstances. I was only using minimum stakes on that but I got most markets right and it's going in the right direction.

I've also been working on my place lays too which are going very well. I don't like tweaking them too much as they've shown a lot of profit over the years but I toyed with some ideas today and made some money. It's great to be finally make some money in the place markets as I struggled there for years. I made about €140 today but I'm most happy about the consistency and there were very few losing markets:



Back to the regular racing - we've the Scottish Grand National at Ayr to get stuck into. There's also some decent flat racing on so here's hoping I'll have a few more pounds on Saturday night than I do on Saturday morning. Here's Saturday's Irish Independent article:




HADRIAN'S APPROACH
BOTH Merigo and Hello Bud won the Scottish Grand National (3.50) aged 11 in recent years, but the only horse aged 12 or more to win since the race was transferred to Ayr in 1966 was Wilsford. That was back in 1995 and just like the English Grand National at Aintree, older horses tend to struggle. Admittedly, horses aged 12 or more usually make up a very small proportion of the field each year but those that do take part rarely make an impression and for betting purposes, I reckon they are best avoided. Paul Nicholls' Tidal Bay tops the weights and the 13-year-old came home unscathed after the Aintree equivalent last week having unseated Sam Twiston Davies at the first Canal Turn. Tidal Bay is rated 166 and will shoulder the maximum 11st 12lbs but because the minimum weight any horse is allowed to carry here is 10st, those rated less than 140 will all be 'out of the handicap'. In other words, all horses numbered 12 to 30 on the card will be carrying more weight than they should be. It's no surprise then, that majority of the market leaders come from the top part of the weights although whether Tidal Bay (14/1) can remain competitive at this stage of his career remains to be seen. He's a great horse and records are there to be broken but at the prices, I think it's best to look elsewhere for the winner. One horse that might be overpriced each-way at 16/1 is Nicky Henderson's Hadrian's Approach, and Barry Geraghty went easy enough on him when it became clear he wouldn't be finishing near the money in the three mile handicap chase at the Cheltenham Festival. While it would be fair to describe that race as a setback, he previously won the Graduation Chase at Newbury off this mark (146) without too much fuss and it's my guess that he's still favourably handicapped. The going at Cheltenham was good to firm but he acts best on ground which is on the softer side of good so today's conditions are likely to bring out the best in him. Henderson, who is yet to win the Scottish National, reports that the seven-year-old has come out of Cheltenham in good shape and connections are quietly confident he can manage to place at the least. Lucinda Russell's Green Flag also catches the eye but might be a little short at 7/1. He clocked up a hat-trick of wins over fences in October and November, and ran a cracking race when fourth in the aforementioned three mile handicap at Cheltenham.
On the flat at Newbury, Lady Cecil's Noble Mission makes appeal at 5/1 in the Group Three John Porter Stakes (1.50). The son of Galileo was beaten in this race last year at 5/4 but he's since won a Listed race at Newbury and was a good fourth in Hardwicke Stakes at Royal Ascot. While he was outclassed in a Group Two at Longchamp last time, his nearest rival today Astonishing has at least 2lbs to make up on official ratings. 

Each-way
THE Scottish Champion Hurdle (2.40 Ayr) is a limited handicap and the inclusion of My Tent Or Yours (10/11) means that eight of the eleven runners will be racing out of the handicap. One that does get in off his proper racing weight is Gordon Elliott's Flaxen Flare, and he's generally available at a nice each-way price of 10/1. The favourite will be very hard to beat but Elliott is adept at raiding prizes across the water and the consistent five-year-old ran right up to his best when fifth in the Vincent O'Brien County Handicap Hurdle at Cheltenham last time.

DO THE DOUBLE
SOCCER:  LIVERPOOL are now as short as 15/8 to win the League and in an absolutely mouth-watering clash tomorrow, they welcome 4/5 title favourites Manchester City to Anfield. The Reds know they were unlucky to be beaten at the Etihad earlier this season but home advantage will give them an edge this time and Brendan Rodgers' men are playing with an ever increasing level of style and confidence. This could be a high scoring affair but Liverpool are tipped to just about shade it at 6/4.
RACING: THE Marco Botti trained Al Thakhira was below form in Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf last time but she was quite impressive when winning a maiden at Yarmouth and later the Group Two Rockfel Stakes at Newmarket. As such, her current price of 14/1 for the 1,000 Guineas looks about right. Santa Anita is best forgotten and she can get her campaign back on track in the Group Three Fred Darling Stakes at Newbury this afternoon (2.20), priced around3/1.

Today's selections
1.50 Newbury: Noble Mission
2.20 Newbury: Al Thakhira
2.40 Ayr: Flaxen Flare (e/w)
2.55 Newbury: Astaire
3.50 Ayr: Hadrian's Approach (e/w)

 



Saturday, April 5, 2014

Aintree Grand National 2014




Morning all, it's the big one today. Here's today's Irish Independent article:



CHANCE DU ROY
SAMUEL Langhorne Clemens, familiar to most by his pen name Mark Twain, once said that 'history doesn't repeat itself but it does rhyme'. Twain's phrase is worth keeping in mind when trying to make a shortlist for today's Grand National at Aintree (4.15), and a lot of punters will look back through the list of previous National winners to see what sort of traits are required in order to win the world's greatest steeplechase. Stats and trends certainly have their place and looking back at the past can help create a profile of the type of horse it takes to win - although you have to use your common sense and allow for some flexibility. Indeed, one of the most important things that history tells us about this race is that almost anything can happen.  Until 2009, for example, French-bred horses were unpopular as they hadn't won since 1909 - but Mon Mome changed all that at 100/1 and another French-bred, Neptune Collonges, followed up in 2012 at 33/1. But having said that, it's hard not to be influenced by certain statistics. For instance, the last time a 13-year-old won, Brendan Behan was still in cloth nappies (1923) and that puts me right off Paul Nicholls' Tidal Bay, which tops the weights at 11st 10lbs. Experience is all well and good but I just can't be having him at 14/1 despite the fact that he ran a cracker in third in the Welsh National back in December. Just like Mon Mome, he might prove his doubters wrong - but the record books tell us that it takes a younger set of legs to successfully tackle Aintree's famous fences over a distance of nearly four and-a-half miles. Swing Bill, which snuck in at the opposite end of the weights, is of a similar vintage to Tidal Bay although the bookies don't give that one much hope at 66/1.
The horse that ticks all the right boxes is Rebecca Curtis' Teaforthree which has been trained all season with this race as the target. Third last year off 151, the ten-year-old comes here in good shape having had an easy enough time of it in the Gold Cup. He's a great jumper and is 2lbs lower than 2013 so it would be no surprise to see him in the thick of the action once again. But he's not exactly value at 8/1and for that reason, I'm crossing him off my list, albeit reluctantly. For those looking for a nice outsider, consider Chance du Roy at 33/1, trained by Philip Hobbs with Tom O'Brien booked to ride. Although the Grand National has been made easier in recent years, not every horse can handle these fences but the selection won the Becher Chase in December and was second in the Topham Chase back in 2012. On the negative side, he's yet to prove his stamina over the trip but his weight of 10st 6lbs seems fair enough and if he puts in a good round of jumping and stays out of trouble, he's entitled to be thereabouts.
Considering he won the Gold Cup in 2011, Long Run deserves a mention and Sam Waley-Cohen proved just how effective he is over these fences when steering Warne to victory in the Fox Hunters' Chase on Thursday. But sadly, Long Run seems to be in decline and his jumping often lets him down. Of course, you need more than one running for you in this race and of the rest, Rocky Creek has strong each-way claims at 16/1. He's in good form, he's a great jumper and the vibes from Nicholls' yard are all positive. A lack of experience has put some backers off but to me he looks unexposed and the form from his latest race when second in the Argento Chase has worked out well. 

DO THE DOUBLE
SOCCER: WEST BROM have now gone 11 League games without a clean sheet and they could find life tough away to a Norwich City side which are unbeaten in their last six home games. Norwich still have to play Liverpool, Manchester United, Chelsea and Arsenal so they'll be aware of how important it is to get some points in the bag today. Bank on The Canaries to score the first goal this afternoon at 10/11.  
RACING: FORMERLY known as the Liverpool Hurdle, the Silver Cross Stayers' Hurdle (2.50 Aintree) looks difficult to decipher but it may well end up as a match between At Fishers Cross (5/2) and Zarkandar (11/4). Third in the World Hurdle at Cheltenham, At Fishers Cross finished two lengths ahead of Zarkandar but the latter was trying out the distance for the first time and has excuses. If given a more positive ride this afternoon, he should improve enough to reverse the placings. 

Today's selections
2.05 Aintree: Trifolium
2.50 Aintree: Zarkandar
3.40 Lingfield: American Hope
4.15 Aintree: Chance du Roy (e/w)
4.15 Aintree: Rocky Creek (e/w)


Over 300 POINTS PROFIT to date! See WAYNEBAILEYRACING.COM for more details.  

Thursday, April 3, 2014

Aintree Grand National meeting 2014



Some good racing on today - most looking forward to watching The New One in the Aintree Hurdle. I backed him in the Champion Hurdle but he had wretched luck behind Our Conor. At the prices (4/11), he's not a bet today but I'll cheer him on nonetheless.

In the Betfred Bowl, I'm siding with Silviniaco Conti. I have a strategy for the top non handicap chases whereby I'll simply back the top rated horse provided its rating is 165+. I also have a rule that they must have ran within the last sixty days (so I'm relatively confident their rating is accurate).

Since 2003, there's been 85 winners from 174 bets (49pc) and the profit to a 1pts stake at SP is 45pts.

Aside from the stats, I think he ran a cracking race in a strange Gold Cup so he should be in with a shout today at 9/4. I just hope Cheltenham didn't take too much out of him but he's got 8lbs in hand so perhaps he can just about do it. If not, Dynaste will be there to pick up the pieces.


Over 300 POINTS PROFIT to date! See WAYNEBAILEYRACING.COM for more details. 

Saturday, March 29, 2014

The Lincoln Handicap at Doncaster

Morning folks, we kick off the flat season today at Doncaster. I'm looking forward to the Lincoln Handicap in particular and also the Spring Mile. Here's today's Irish Independent article:




Saturday, March 22, 2014

Saturday's horse racing bets

Good morning all, looking forward to the Winter Derby at Lingfield. Here's today's Irish Independent article:


Monday, March 17, 2014

Cheltenham Festival System results

Hi folks, before this year's festival I published a simple system which has made me quite a few bob down through the years.

http://waynebaileyracing.blogspot.ie/2014/03/cheltenham-festival-betting-system-2014.html

There rules were simple enough:


* Race is a non-handicap at the Cheltenham Festival
* Horse is top rated on official ratings
* Horse won last time out
* Horse is favourite

This year, the profit was 1.98 pts to tradional SP and 2.82 pts to Betfair SP. I was lucky enough to be on Vautour too (7/2), which was favourite when I backed it just before the race but ended up joint fav with Irving so it wasn't officially a qualifier. Hope some of you made some money from it. This year's winners in bold:

Bobs Worth (IRE) Calipto (FR) Sire De Grugy (FR) Faugheen (IRE) Quevega (FR) Hurricane Fly (IRE).


Sire De Grugy:

 

Saturday, March 15, 2014

Saturday's bets

Back down to earth after the Cheltenham Festival! Here's today's Irish Independent article:



WYCK HILL
FOLLOWING four days of absolutely top-class racing at the Cheltenham Festival, it's slightly depressing to flick through today's fixture list in which not a single graded race is scheduled. We are certainly back to basics today although money earned from betting at Uttoxeter buys exactly the same amount of pints of stout as money earned from Cheltenham and a nice winner or two today would certainly help ease the sense of deflation. We've also got the rugby to look forward to and some decent football matches on the box so it might not be such a bad day for punters after all. The feature race of the day is the Betfred Midlands Grand National (3.50 Uttoxeter) for which 18 horses go to post and the one that catches the eye is the David Bridgwater trained Wyck Hill, which should go off at an each-way price of 8/1 or thereabouts. A 4m1f race is not for the faint hearted, but the ten-year-old is the sole participant in the field proven at the distance, having won the Eider Chase at Newcastle last month by three-quarters of a length to Smoking Aces. He had dropped right down to 133 in the ratings beforehand but that Eider victory has seen his mark shoot back up to 141. That leaves him sitting third in the weights carrying 10st 6lbs this afternoon but his enthusiasm for a heavy slog at Newcastle suggests there's life in the old dog yet and he doesn't seem to have regressed with age. With 10 wins from 16 races, Harry Topper is also highly respected. Kim Bailey's seven-year-old has plenty of stamina and beat Al Ferof in the Denman Chase at Newbury last time although his jumping can be a bit suspect at times, and I've a feeling that the topweight burden of 11st 12lbs may be enough to hold him back over this distance.
At Fontwell, West Cork Flash looks overpriced at 7/2 in the 32red Casino Handicap Chase (2.30). He finished eight lengths behind Itoldyouso in a handicap chase here last month but an aggressive ride by Richard Johnson that day didn't do him any favours. He's been left on the same mark and a more patient ride by Jamie Moore here might just do the trick.
On the all-weather at Wolverhampton, Arrowzone can finally register his first win after eight attempts in the five-runner 32Red.com Median Auction Maiden Stakes (7.40). He showed some promise when placed in a couple of nurseries on the turf in October and I'm willing to forgive his latest flop at Doncaster in which he finished last of nine runners. It was clear from the get-go that he wasn't keen to race at all and he was possibly a little tired after a busy late-summer campaign. That poor showing at Doncaster has been factored into the odds and I reckon 3/1 is not a bad price now that he's had a nice break for the winter. Likely favourite Big Orange (11/10) is sure to present a challenge. A son of Duke Of Marmalade, Michael Bell's gelding progressed well from his debut when finishing mid-way down the field in a decent enough maiden at Newmarket back in October. 

Each-way
THE ROMFORD PELE is entitled to be favourite for the Kempton Park Betdaq Silver Bowl Handicap Chase (3.30) but this looks quite competitive and Rebecca Curtis' seven-year-old is too short for me at 4/1. Instead, a chance is taken each-way on 14/1 shot Saved By John from Tim Vaughan's yard. He shaped well after ten weeks off when fifth in a handicap chase at Chepstow last time out and now eased 2lbs, he's entitled to go close. 

DO THE DOUBLE
RUGBY:  FRANCE have beaten Ireland in 11 of the past 14 meetings of the pair and as we all know, Ireland have a  poor record in Paris with just two wins in 42 years. However France haven't been firing on all cylinders in this championship and Ireland are tipped to just about edge this evening's encounter at 10/11. The Irish know that the best way to honour Brian O'Driscoll would be to win the Six Nations, and the sense of occasion can help see them through today.
RACING: THE Roger Varian trained Jaahiez keeps improving with every race and he managed to beat the odds-on Premium Pressure to lose the maiden tag at Lingfield last time. He's been given a mark of 72 for his first handicap but he looks like one that can progress and early odds of 4/1 seem generous for the 32Red Handicap at Lingfield this afternoon. (4.0)

TODAY'S SELECTIONS
2.30 Fontwell: West Cork Flash
3.30 Kempton: Saved By John (e/w)
3.50 Uttoxeter: Wyck Hill (e/w)
4.40 Kempton: Andy Kelly
5.25 Fontwell: Solstice Son
7.10 Wolverhampton: Jaahiez
7.40 Wolverhampton: Arrowzone