Just popping in to say hello as I haven't posted in a while. It's been a busy time with work so I haven't had much time to blog.
A few updates:
Place backing and laying
Still going well. I'm only risking twenty quid per bet (or twenty quid liability when laying) and I'm mixing a few strategies together to try make a few quid. After 92 bets, I'm up about two ton so I'm very happy with that indeed as it's effectively 10pts. Again, very early days and I'm not getting ahead of myself but I'd love to crack the place markets as they've frustrated me over the years.
Still making new highs on the S&P and I'm just jobbing the market, buying the gaps and dips. I've an open trade today - the gap between this mornings price and last night's close was about 40 pips. I normally like to see a bigger gap but I've went ahead and bought the S&P to take a chance. The trade has just pushed into profit so fingers crossed the Americans, who have now hit their desks, are feeling patriotic.
As mentioned, she sadly broke her leg on Friday. We may just look at getting another horse, we'll have to wait and see. It's a tough game sometimes and it's really unfortunate but these things happen. I'll update if or when we get a new horse.
I'm still writing my book about trading on the exchanges. When I started, I thought it would take me a few weeks but how wrong I was! I've about 80% of it done now (excluding editing) and I just want to get it finished now as I don't want the information too dated. As mentioned before, I've had interest from publishers but I really need to kick on and get it done.
Still out running 2-3 times a week. My daughter joined Taekwondo recently (which I'm very happy about - great for discipline) so I'm out running each evening she goes to the dojang as it's not worth my while going home. Running is now fitted back into a schedule so it's much easier to be disciplined.
Anyway, that's it for now, I hope to post later in the week and perhaps I'll discuss the place betting in a bit more detail when time allows.
Really bad news on Vicky Miller. Anyone who saw the race yesterday will have seen her going well but then pulled up. Sadly, she broker her leg when she came down wrong over one of the hurdles. It's a cruel game sometimes.
As some of you know, we bought a horse some years back but it didn't turn out too good as he kept picking up injuries and every time we planned a race for him, something would go wrong. That's the way it goes sometimes so hopefully we have a bit more luck with this one. The difference here though, is that we are leasing her. It's a great way to do it as you get the benefits of prizemoney if she wins but there's a simple upfront monthly fee. It's less complicated than when we went to Goffs and bought a horse ourselves.
She's raced in four bumpers so far, the best of which was when she was beaten by a head at Clonmel. This is her first race over hurdles so being honest, we don't really know how it will go but the bookmakers have chalked her up at 8/1 early doors.
She's in training with Gordon Elliott and we hope to have some good days out over the summer.
On the betting front, I've had a fairly good week. As you can see, most of the money was made from the place markets:
Having spent many years losing money in the place markets, I finally feel I'm getting somewhere and have been trying different things out in the past few weeks backing, laying and trading. I'm not getting too ahead of myself though, it could be just a lucky run. But I'd love to crack these markets as they have been a source of frustration over the years.
On the financial trading, the rally on the S&P 500 continues. I'm still just jobbing away on it, buying the dips but I've been staying away from selling as the market just keeps on pushing higher. It has to end some time but I'll take a few points here and there while it's going.
It was interesting to see Manchester United's shares stay relatively stable over the past few days and they currently sit just under 18.50:
I wondered if the price would fall with the news of Alex Ferguson leaving but prices actually rose over the past few days and then dropped slightly. I guess the news was already built into the price and the market knew he couldn't hang around for ever. I often moan about football but he's been absolutely incredible. The amount of years he gave to the club is amazing - especially in this day and age where people are disposable if they don't produce instant results.
I mused in my last post whether the S&P would break through the 1600 barrier - and break through it sure did on Friday:
Still no sign of this rally ending - I guess there hasn't been much bad news about in a while. It's gotta end sometime but for now, I'm certainly staying on the bull side and buying any dips.
In the racing, we have the first Classic of the season. Absolutely can't wait! I'm having a decent sized bet on Dawn Approach although the drift in price since yesterday morning is somewhat unsettling. Here's today's Irish Independent article, best of luck if you are having a bet:
The S&P made a new closing high yesterday of 1593.61. Will we hit 1600 soon?
S&P500 three-month chart:
While it could be argued that 1600 is just a number like any other, it's not really as big round numbers are attractive to people psychologically. A lot of people will say things like "I will buy/sell when the price hits 1600" but are less likely to say "I will buy sell when the price hits 1598".
You see this too in sports betting where the market will 'congregate' around traditional prices like 5/4, 6/4 or 2/1 or whatever.
So the 1600 price is interesting - we can assume a lot of people that have gone short on the S&P may have stops placed just above 1600. Similarly, some traders will be waiting to buy once they get confirmation that the price has gone through the barrier. People have lots of different reasons to buy and sell around these prices so very often, we will see resistance before we get a breakthrough. Of course, the S&P is an index of 500 companies and isn't a stock in itself - but many funds buy collectively into those stocks at a ratio so the overall price of the index does have meaning.
At the moment, I'm just jobbing along on this market and buying the gaps (buying the index if the morning price is lower than last night's closing price), taking profit when the gap closes.
Is this the week we smash through or is there a wall of resistance in store?
An interesting day yesterday. The S&P had a nice big rally yesterday and now sits above 1575 in the pre-market trading:
Unfortunately for me, I only made a paltry twenty quid from this market yesterday, even though I was a buyer just before it rallied! I wasn't around to manage my trade so I had it take my profit automatically when it hit the previous night's close. A profit is profit as they say - but ten times the profit wouldn't have been a hell of a lot nicer.
There was a bit of panic at one stage and we had a 'flash crash'. A fake tweet from The Associated Press' account which had been hacked sent the markets tumbling for a very short time. The tweet said that the White House had been attacked and that Obama was injured. Have a read of this, it's quite interesting:
The interesting thing here is that the tweet was picked up by the automatic trading bots. These bots now read news feed and are programmed to recognise good and bad news. A few years ago, I was amazed when I heard that bots could effectively 'read' the news and trade it but there's since been a few cases where it has gone haywire and in some ways, it's a little refreshing to know that computers are not yet as advanced so that they can replace humans.
On Betfair, I had a couple of wins and a small loss in the place markets resulting in an overall profit of 26 quid. Nothing to get excited about but it's still early days on this particular strategy.
A librarian by profession, Wayne Bailey holds a degree in social science from University College Dublin. Wayne has always enjoyed sport and has been punting ever since his late father would give him 50p every Saturday to pick out a horse! His first real bet as an adult however, was on the one and only Istabraq in the 1998 Champion Hurdle and he’s had the racing bug ever since.
Wayne has been involved with horse racing for nearly a decade as a punter, writer and now owner. He currently pens ‘The Betting Ring’ column for the Irish Independent every Saturday.
Wayne helped set up Let’s Bet – a thriving forum for sports betting fans everywhere. He lives in Dublin with his wife and young daughter.
To contact Wayne, send an email to email@example.com