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Saturday, August 23, 2014

Saturday's bets

Morning folks,

Sorry for the lack of updates recently. As always, I'm up to my eyes with diffrent projects and time is limited. I'll do a review soon. For now, here's today's Indo article:

Saturday, August 2, 2014

Galway & Goodwood betting, Saturday

A cracker of a day yesterday with a 12/1 (18/1 on Betfair) and a 9/2 winner. More of the same today please!

Here's today's Irish Independent article:

IN Monday's Irish Independent, I tipped up the Dermot Weld trained Call Vinnie for the bumper and as he picked up around the home turn, I called for a round of drinks at the bar with the five-year-old seemingly home and hosed. In-running punters on the machine thought so too and gelding traded as low as 1/4 before being outstayed by the more experienced bumper horse Princely Conn. The pints went down well with the lads but it was an expensive reminder for me that the hill at Galway can empty out a tank in a flash, and just like Cheltenham, you should never count your chickens at Ballybrit until the horse is safely across the line. Still, the experience will have done some good and McNamara teams up with the point-to-point winner once again this evening to hopefully make amends in the Ladbrokes Top Treble Flat Race (5.55). At 7/4, I reckon there's a good chance of getting my money back although I've a slight concern that Tony Martin's Fill Your Hands (9/2) may scupper the bet, having finished third in a bumper at Kilbeggan in May. As we saw with Thomas Edison in the Galway Hurdle this week,  Martin certainly knows how to prepare a horse for a specific race and the market should be  a good guide to his chances.
Dessie Hughes' Off The Charts  has claims at 6/1 in the Ladbrokes Handicap Hurdle (3.10) but the Martin Brassil trained topweight Celestial Prospect gets my vote at 7/1 following a minor success at Cork last time. Previously, he beat the smart handicapper Acapulco Gold in a competitive handicap hurdle Gowran and I suspect the assessor does not yet have his measure despite his rating going up by a stone to 134 in the space of three months.
In the south of England at Goodwood, Aidan O'Brien's Venus de Milo can raid the lion's share of the £200,000 prize on offer for the Markel Insurance Nassau Stakes (3.15), priced around 9/4. Second in the Group One Pretty Polly Stakes at Irish HQ, she beat Dazzling to win the Munster Oaks at Cork in June and it will be disappointing if she doesn't make the most of the opportunity in what is a somewhat substandard renewal of this Group One. The main concern is that her best form is mostly over a mile and-a-half but unlike some of her rivals, she's a proven performer on firmer ground which may prove decisive. Of the rest, you'd expect Alain de Royer-Dupré's Narniyn to give a good account of herself at 7/2. She's won a number of Group Threes and must be respected although she seems to act best on soft going and might find today's conditions a bit too quick. Mango Diva (4/1) is the best of the domestic challengers for Michael Stoute.  Her trainer has won this race seven times (most recently in 2004) and some of her best races came in and around this distance. 

AS usual, the Stewards' Cup at Goodwood (3.50) is extremely competitive, and Muthmir is sure to prove popular following his demolition job in the Sky Bet Dash last week. But all that is priced in to his odds of 6/1 and preference is for Ninjago which is expected to go off at a decent each-way price of 14/1. The Richard Hannon trained colt was fifth in this race last year and it might be worth forgiving a poor showing in the Wokingham last time out. 

*Last week's each-way selection, Dont Bother Me, was placed at 16/1. 

GAELIC FOOTBALL: MEATH take on Armagh at five o' clock today but having been torn apart by Dublin in the Leinster Final, confidence in the Royal camp is bound to be low. If they couldn't muster up a fight against their old rivals Dublin, it's hard to see them progressing much further. Meanwhile Armagh come here in decent form following two good victories over Tyrone and Roscommon and momentum is on their side. At 4/5 to qualify, The Orchard County are a confident bet this evening.
RACING: AIDAN O'Brien's Marchese Marconi is a half brother to Endless Power and shaped well on his hurdle debut when second of 24 runners at Punchestown back in May. He's also useful on the flat and has since won a minor event for amateur riders at Limerick. He remains open to improvement over hurdles and a price of 11/8 seems reasonable in the opening Ladbrokes Mobile Maiden Hurdle at Galway this afternoon (2.35). 

* Last week's double was successful at an overall price of just over 11/2. 

Today's selections
2.35 Galway: Marchese Marconi
3.10 Galway: Celestial Prospect
3.15 Goodwood: Venus de Milo
3.45 Galway: Spryt
3.50 Goodwood: Ninjago (e/w)
5.55 Galway: Call Vinnie

Friday, August 1, 2014

Galway Races bettting, Friday

Good morning folks,

Just a couple of short priced winners yesterday so nothing special, although my place lays for Wayne Bailey Racing produced a profit of five points so some money made overall. Can't believe we are at day five of Galway already - here's today's Irish Independent article:

THOSE of us who write about horseracing usually start looking at the potential runners a few days in advance, and unless the race in question has a strong ante-post market, we don't always have the luxury of forecast prices available. But strangely enough, this has proved beneficial to me as it forced me to learn how to price up races for myself. If the first thing you do is look at the prices when trying to figure out a race, your judgement will inevitably be clouded when trying to find the most likely winner. Although it's difficult, pricing up a race from scratch is something I'd encourage all readers to try and once the race is over, it's can be very interesting to compare your notes to the industry SPs and also the finishing positions of the horses. Yesterday morning, I priced up the Guinness Handicap (6.50) and had Dermot Weld's Show Court as a 6/1 shot so I nearly choked on my Coco Pops when the first round of tissue prices were issued which had him down at 20/1. Not all bookmakers will let you have a bet the day before but some will, so I got on the phone and rang around to see if anyone would bite anywhere near those odds. Occasionally, you will get your bet on at a great price doing this although lately, I find that bookmakers have become a lot more cautious and now seem to take their lead from the exchanges on the day of the race. Unfortunately, I didn't get on this time and the second round of forecast prices had him down at 8/1 - but that's still a couple of points higher than what I had him priced at so it's a value bet to me. I guess that some people will be put off by his latest race when last of six runners in a handicap at the Curragh but that was simply a case of shaking off the cobwebs after nine months off ,and he's best judged on his previous race when second in a good quality handicap at Leopardstown. He's down 1lb to 87 and we should see a rejuvenated animal today. Panama Hat (4/1) and Egyptian Warrior (5/1) have claims too, while Aidan O'Brien's topweight El Salvador also catches the eye with Donnacha O'Brien's claim likely to prove useful.
In the following Guinness E.B.F. Maiden (7.25), the O'Brien trained colt Falkirk (nap) is tipped at 2/1 to see out the mile and-a-half distance ahead of Weld's filly Massinga (15/8). He should have won a maiden at Gowran last time and was leading two out - but he carried his head a bit high and seemed to get distracted in the final furlong, eventually getting outbattled by Good Tradition. His loss was mostly down to inexperience but it was a big improvement on his debut and further progress can be expected today.  

5.10: Maxim Gorky
5.40: Bleu Ciel Et Rouge
6.15: Shamiran (e/w)
6.50: Show Court
7.25: Falkirk (nap)
7.55: Botanical Lady
8.25: Shu Lewis

Thursday, July 31, 2014

Galway Hurdle betting - Thursday (Ladies Day)

A cracker of a day yesterday with four winners including an 11/2 and a 12/1 (16/1 on Betfair).

Another good day too for my place lays on which is going very well. For 2014, it's produced a profit of £1480 at Betfair SP to a £10 stake which is a fantastic return if I may say so myself.

It's Galway Hurdle day today which, as one would expect for the richest hurdle race in Ireland, is very competitive. Here's today's Irish Independent article:

AS a general rule, British trained horses don't have a great record in the Galway Hurdle (4.55) although in 2010, Donald McCain's Overturn ran a cracker carrying 11st 6lbs to take the prize across the water for the first time since 1991. Since then, normal service has been resumed with horses trained by Paul Flynn and Michael Winters (twice) claiming the richest National Hunt race in Ireland. Of course, British trained horses only made up a small percentage of all runners down through the years so it would be foolish to overlook them based on a small sample size - and I've a sneaky feeling that John Ferguson's Parlour Games has a better chance than odds of 12/1 would suggest.  With four wins on the flat and two over hurdles, the six-year-old certainly has talent and even though his weight of 10st 12lbs off 141 might appear restrictive,  he gave the impression that he's plenty of improving to come when defying a penalty to land a facile victory in a novices' hurdle at Market Rasen a couple of weeks ago. That was just his third race since switching from the flat, and from what we've seen so far, a decent future awaits under the winter code. Leading Irish fancies Thomas Edison (4/1) and Bayan (7/1) will certainly be no pushovers but with some bookmakers offering five places on each-way bets, it's worth taking a chance on a talented horse at a double-figure price.
IN the opening beginners chase (1.50), Elegant Statesman can get the Ladies Day crowd off to a flying start with layers expected to open up around carpet (3/1) for the Henry De Bromhead trained gelding. The assessor had piled the lead on following some notable performances last season and it all came to a head when the son of Vinnie Roe could make no impression in a handicap at Leopardstown at Christmas. He got back on track when coming second in a maiden chase after seven months off at Kilbeggan recently, and the JP McManus owned seven-year-old has enough talent to see off the likes of Tylers Cottage and Our Man Zebo.
Half an hour later, Alelchi Inois (11/10) is napped to take the Guinness Harp Novice Chase (2.20). A French import, he won a maiden hurdle on his first start for Willie Mullins last year and he went in the notebook as one to watch over sticks; but later made no impact when stepped up in class to graded level. Mullins has since tried him out over fences and that's where his future lies it seems with two wins in that sphere in as many races.
Finally, Dermot Weld's Tested should take all the beating at 3/1 in the Listed Fillies Stakes (3.40). She finished mid-division in the Irish 1,000 Guineas, but bounced back to form when taking a Listed race with a bit to spare at Naas last time.


1.50: Elegant Statesman
2.20: Alelchi Inois (nap)
3.0: Sister Slew
3.40: Tested
4.15: Ground Invasion
4.55: Parlour Games (e/w)
5.35: Pirate Cove
6.05: Clondaw Farmer

Wednesday, July 30, 2014

Galway Plate betting


Good morning all,

Two winners yesterday but nothing to write home about. A tricky enough card today with the highlight being The Galway Plate. JP McManus has a few horses entered and has a great record in this race. We also have the Sussex Stakes at Goodwood for which Kingman is very difficult to oppose. Plenty to look forward to today then - here's today's Irish Independent article:

THE 20/1 which was widely available over the weekend for Alderwood to win today's Galway Plate (5.30) has predictably been slashed since Tony McCoy opted to ride the Tom Mullins trained ten-year-old. Now chalked up as low as 6/1 in places, he's part of a seven-strong JP McManus contingent as the leading owner attempts to win the race for the third year in-a-row. The heavily backed Carlingford Lough was a very popular winner under McCoy last year at 7/2 and Alderwood will surely raise the roof if the champion jockey gets him home ahead of all others this evening. But I have my doubts over McCoy's choice, and have opted to back another McManus horse, Rum And Butter, which was available at 20/1 with a number of firms yesterday. Don't get me wrong, I know I'm not qualified to question the champion jockey's decisions considering the only time I've sat on a horse was when, at the age of six, my old man threw me and the brother up on the back of a piebald in a housing estate in Ballybrack. That ended with a split-head and a trip to Loughlinstown hospital so it's somewhat surprising that I'm still interested in even watching the animals today. But coming at it from a punter's point of view, which is my brief here, it worries me that Alderwood hasn't been seen in 275 days when finishing second-last in a Grade Three at Naas (having jumped poorly throughout). Yes, he may be working well at home and connections know a lot more about the horse than we do, but I still feel there's nothing like racecourse experience to prep a horse well. To come back and win such a competitive affair after a big lay-off is a tough ask. Conversely, Rum And Butter has been in flying form, winning three on the trot including a seven-runner novice at Market Rasen recently at the expense of Scots Gaelic. He remains unbeaten over fences and I don't think he's unduly punished carrying 10st 11lbs. Dessie Hughes' Art Of Logistics has claims too, while Paul Nicholls' Caid Du Berlais has not been sent here just to enjoy the scenery.
In the preceding maiden (4.45), Dermot Weld's Whitey O' Gwaun is nap material albeit at a restrictive price of 5/6. A half-brother to several smart winners, his disappointing run in a handicap at the Curragh last time can be overlooked as he needed to oil the hinges after ten months off.
In the opening maiden hurdle (3.0), take a chance on Most Peculiar at 4/1. Willie Mullins' five-year-old shaped well when third to King Leon on his hurdling debut at Ballinrobe, and went one better in a bumper at Cork to finish second to MacBride, an Aidan O'Brien trained gelding which has since won another bumper at Tipperary. 

3.0: Most Peculiar
3.35: Cacheofgold
4.10: Dubawi Phantom (e/w)
4.45: Whitey O' Gwaun (nap)
5.30: Rum And Butter
6.05: Sister Slew (e/w)
6.40: Focussed
7.10: Brooch

Tuesday, July 29, 2014

Galway Festival, day two betting tips (Tuesday)

Good morning folks, here's today's Irish Independent article:

WITH a strike-rate of one in five, Aidan O'Brien's unraced two-year-olds are always highly regarded and I suspect that Ask Me Nicely will prove popular at 8/1 for the Topaz E.B.F. Fillies Maiden (6.05), as we push on with day two of the Galway Festival. She's well bred and is closely related to some smart winners including Beethoven although, like more than half the field here, she will be racing for the first time. Both O'Brien and Dermot Weld have dominated this race in recent years and we have to go back to 2005 to find a winner which was not from Ballydoyle or Rosewell House with Weld saddling the most recent victor, Tarfasha. To be honest, there's a lot of guesswork involved here but the market will be a good guide and the Weld trained Chinese Light gets the nod at 9/4. The fact that she's a full sister to Group One winner Chinese White does not go unnoticed.
With a total prize fund of €115,000, the Topaz Mile (6.40) is the feature race of the day and as one would expect, the 21-runner handicap is a competitive affair which, from a betting point of view, looks wide open. As is so often the case at Galway, once again it's the Dermot Weld horse which catches the eye and at odds of 14/1 or thereabouts, Calibrate can be backed each-way. She showed some promise here last year but was ultimately unsuccessful when making her debut in a maiden, but later showed her worth by landing a similar race at Gowran. This term, she attempted a handicap at the Curragh and while the result looks poor (seventh of nine runners), she actually shaped much better than it appears on paper. She was still going well when hampered a furlong out but wasn't given a rough time by Pat Smullen once it was clear she wouldn't be taking home some prizemoney. The handicapper has left her with room to manoeuvre off a mark of 93 although the topweight, Balty Boys, looks set to give her a run for her money having landed a competitive handicap at Newmarket last time.
Gordon Elliott has had a few near-misses at Galway down through the years but Takeyourcapoff might be the one to get him back in the winners' enclosure at Ballybrit in the Handicap (7.10) at a generous enough price of 7/1. This mare is another one of his useful dual purpose recruits and she beat some decent sorts to win a handicap hurdle at Roscommon back in June.
In the concluding maiden, I realise I'm on dangerous ground opposing the Weld trained favourite (Antique Platinum), but I like the look of David Marnane's  Henson, which should be available somewhere in the region of 3/1. He's a bit of an oddball to be honest and at times he can almost look disinterested - yet he's rarely out of the frame and I reckon he'll shed the maiden tag sooner rather than later. 

5.05: Shield
5.35: Jacksonslady
6.05: Chinese Light (nap)
6.40: Calibrate (e/w)
7.10: Takeyourcapoff
7.45: Sretaw
8.15: Henson