Trading software

Wednesday, June 10, 2015

A GRAND little system


Good morning folks, it's been a while since I put up a blog. I was away in Portugal last week so I haven't been doing much betting although I got back to it yesterday. Portugal was great craic - I went away with 12 lads from the local pub so it was plenty of fun and great weather too. It was a place called Albefeira (in the Algarve) and the weather was just perfect, around 25-30 degrees each day:



I'm not trading as much as I'd like due to time restrictions but I'll be back to it soon. I have automated some of my strategies and that's working out OK. Automation is a road I want to look into further - there's something great about heading out for the day, letting the computer do its thing according to your rules, and then (hopefully) coming home to a slightly bigger Betfair balance. But of course, automation comes with loads of extra risks and nothing comes easy. Plenty of stuff can't be automated and you can never account for those random events that happen when trading. But still, if you take the lead from the financial trading world (where there's a huge amount of automation), there are bound to be some opportunities with a bit of hard work. I'll keep working on it.

As regards the living dangerously strategy which I've posted about a few times before - it's going very well and I have the profit over the €1,000 mark at this stage. Basically, it involves rating horses, then laying the worst rated horses in the place market. It's risky though, as most horses are high prices although I do have a cut off at 100.0. Until very recently, I had been using €2 stakes but I've upped it to €3 since the bank hit one large (€1,000). Of course, I don't always get my money fully matched. Sometimes I will get a quid or two matched so the average stake has been €1.98. I'm leaving orders under the price a few minutes before the off and if it's not matched, that's fine. At this end of the market, you can't just take any old price just because it's an outsider. You have to be sensitive to getting the best price just as you would were it an odds on shot.
While I haven't withdrawn the money, that's enough to cover my holiday which is what it's all about. It makes the long hours, late nights and early mornings worth it.

I'd love to get it to €2,000 soon at which point I'll increase the stakes to €4 but it's one step at a time and I'm acutely aware that a couple of bad bets in a row will wipe out hundreds from the bank. I'll keep the blog updated with progress. Here's a snapshot and a chart of how it's been going so far:




Number of bets: 2081
Losing bets: 44
Strike Rate: 97.89%
Average stake: €1.98
Current stake: €3.00
Average price of bet: 44.17
Average price of losing bets: 34.39
Total profit: €1,090.55

***


Sunday, April 26, 2015

Living dangerously (part 3)

It's been a while since I updated progress on my 'Living Dangerously' strategy where I lay high priced horses in the place markets based on my ratings.


It took a bit of a nosedive but has recovered and is currently showing a profit of €672.46 to a €2 fixed lay stake.

The stats are:

Stake: €2 
Bets: 1511
 Unsuccessful bets:32
Strike rate: 97.88%
Total profit: €674.17

The chart:
Overall I'm quite happy with it and the profit of nearly 700 quid is nice to have although I've resisted the urge to up the stakes, especially since I went through a bad patch. It got off to a flyer and it's interesting to see it on a chart because had I started doing this at the beginning of the bad patch where it lost 200 quid, it's possible that I might have scrapped it. That's why it's important to let the data build and not to get too excited by a good start, or too downbeat about a poor run.

I might raise the stakes to €3 if or when I hit €1,000 profit. It's a slow burner but I'm happy to let it run in the background. A grand is the medium term target - it would be nice to reach that figure by the end of June but you can't really plan like that as a few losing bets in-a-row knocks you back quickly as you can see from the chart. I'll report back again soon on progress.

Wayne



Wednesday, April 22, 2015

Racing Post review of my book

The Racing Post reviewed my book Sports Trading on Betfair on Sunday and I'm delighted to say that they seemed to like it a lot.

The full text of the review is below. Don't forget that a free chapter is available to download on www.waynebaileyracing.com/book
 

The Racing Post, Sunday 19th April 2015

A comprehensive guide for both beginner and expert

Wayne Bailey has been busy. Although still only in his mid-30s, the Dublin resident has crammed plenty into his years. A librarian by trade, his is an accredited Betfair trainer (someone endorsed by the company to show others how the exchange works at events in the UK and Ireland) who graduated from university with a degree in social sciences and information studies before completing a diploma in financial trading.
More recently he had studied psychology and the behaviour of the human mind and also spent time as a professional gambler, as well as writing a betting column for the Irish Independent. Somehow he has also found time to pen the wonderful Sports Trading on Betfair.

Bailey's background makes him the perfect person to write a book on carving out a living trading the often frenetic markets on the betting exchanges and he does not disappoint.

In 190-odd pages of A4, Bailey manages to cover all you need to know. Starting with a history of the exchanges and the very basics, the author swiftly moves on to more complex ideas such as scalp trading and momentum swing trading in a manner which, refreshingly, somehow manages the neat trick of being accessible for the novice trader while not patronising those with more experience in the field.
While the early chapters may cover familiar ground for those who have spent plenty of hours slavishly watching the movements of markets, they are still well worth a read because - as the author points out early on - "sometimes even traders are unaware of how important [a series of] numbers are and the difference they can make to their bottom line".

An explanation of crossover points and resistance points, while invaluable to any budding trader, will also prove to be of use to anybody who is looking at using the exchanges just to place a straight back bet.
A chapter on the various software packages available to traders is for once worth a look and not just a glorified advert for the author's favoured tool, and the sections on financial spread trading actually offer something of substance as opposed to just being space fillers.

Laying the field and in-running markets are covered in sufficient detail and while Bailey can hardly lay claim to reinventing the wheel here, at least he does it in such a way that he sows the seeds of the concept in the mind of the reader rather than laying down a list of hard and fast rules. As he is quick to stress: "Selectivity is the key."

With an information-solid background, it is no surprise to learn that Bailey is a meticulous planner - "keeping good record of your trades is imperative" he says, and even the most slapdash of wannabe traders will surely come away from this book in agreement with that sentiment.

Sports trading on Betfair is no get-rich-quick scheme. Nor does it promise to be.
Whit it is, though, is a comprehensive guide that will prove invaluable to those wanting to make their first foray into trading while also proving to be a great reference to those who have already done so.

This is not the first book on the subject and it probably won't be the last. But it does collect a wealth of material for which other books and courses have charged much more. If you can't make back the cover price by using the ideas found here, then trading on the exchanges is probably not for you. The best book of its type so far. 

Paul Eacott

***


Friday, April 17, 2015

Getting banned by bookmakers

Sorry folks, time for a little rant.

Some gamblers think the idea of getting their account closed down or severely limited by a bookmaker is a badge of honour but for me, it simply highlights how unfair this game actually is.

For those of you that haven't been banned, it's pretty simple. If your account shows a decent profit, it will end up on the bookmaker's radar. Once that happens, they will check you out and monitor your bets. If you continue to win money, they will no longer accept bets from you or else 'limit your account' which means the size of the bets you can place are, say, less than a fiver or tenner on the favourite.

Some friends of mine which I'd describe as 'casual punters' are often astonished at this. They are the type of punter the bookmaker loves - a tenner here on a horse, a fiver there on a match. Fun punters who are never really up in the long term, bar the odd lucky win. But if you happen to put in a bit of graft and earn a few quid, watch out. 

Bet365 are the latest bookie to knock me back - or Bet €3.65 I should say as that's about as much as I can get on with them these days. Here's an email they sent me a couple of weeks ago:



When they say that their services are still available to me, that's actually a joke. They didn't want to say I was banned I guess as it's bad for the image but as an example, here's what happens when I try to back a horse at 50/1:

When you put in your stake - say a tenner, the Bet Max box changes it for you. As you can see, Bet365 will let me have a whopping €0.27 on that horse. Any more and it just won't go through.

Call themselves layers? I say they should grow a pair.

On a horse priced 5/4, they'll let me have as much as €10.80



I miss the old style layers who used to bet their opinion (rather than following the exchanges) and would take a risk. Not too many of them left sadly. The good ones would use their winning customers to mark their cards so in some parts, such customers were welcome.

I'm singling out Bet365 here as they are the latest to limit my account but it's across the board as anyone who tries to get more than a hundred quid on anything will tell you. Again, if anyone thinks that this is some kind of boast, it's certainly not. I've had long term losing accounts which were limited after a string of wins over the space of a week.

Fair enough, bookmakers are businesses and they have to limit risk. I understand all that. But I hate when I hear them try to justify this behaviour by telling us that they simply like to have casual punters which like to have a fun bet. That's their market, they say. Oh really? Well, I know a man who lost over €30K with an Irish bookmaker and never got a tap on the shoulder to tell him to stop. It's pretty much ruined his life. If it were a level playing field, both the big winners plus the big losers would get their stakes limited.

It's the double standards that annoy me. If they are only interested in fun punters who bet a fiver or a tenner on a Saturday, that's fair enough but that's not the case. They also want the poor ba***rd that loses his wages every week and goes home to the missus empty handed. In short, they want it both ways and they have it both ways.

By the way, the total I won with Bet365 was in the region of €950 (over the space of one month). While just under a grand is a lot of money in any man's language, it's hardly JP McManus stuff now is it?

As I say, it's not just Bet365, they all do it. I've had accounts shut down over a few hundred euro, it's not always big money. And yet these same firms go and complain that the exchanges have ruined the industry! A funny bunch, the lot of them.

Anyway, life's too short to complain too much so I'll leave it there. Have a good weekend everyone.

Wayne

***

Wayne's book Sports Trading on Betfair is out now:




Saturday, April 11, 2015

Aintree Grand National 2015

Now, keep in mind that I haven't picked the Grand National winner since 1990 when I won £8 backing Mr Frisk at 16/1 with my lucky millennium fifty pence. Minus the price of a pint for me da, God rest him, who placed the bet for me on the Kim Bailey trained gelding. Anyway, as Johnny Logan would say, what's another year? Here goes:


http://www.independent.ie/sport/horse-racing/mccoy-win-would-be-a-dream-but-call-on-soll-for-a-value-bet-31133896.html




Wayne's book Sports Trading on Betfair is out now:

Friday, April 3, 2015

Sports Trading on Betfair (book): Kindle version now available

Good morning folks,

I'm pleased to announce that my book 'Sports Trading on Betfair' is now available on Kindle as well as in physical format.

Kindle version

Print version

Don't forget, there is a free chapter on my website available to give you a flavour of the book:

www.waynebaileyracing.com/book

Happy Easter to all readers.

Wayne

Saturday, March 14, 2015

Lingfield Winter Derby



WITH hoof marks still fresh in the ground at Prestbury Park after a hugely enjoyable Cheltenham Festival, it's a little hard to think about flat racing, especially with Aintree and Punchestown still to come. But the Winter Derby (3.05) Lingfield is the first Group race of the British season and it's a signal that we must, as my sat nav would say, recalibrate. The flat season proper kicks off with the Lincoln at Doncaster in just a couple of weeks so the Winter Derby acts as a warm up act as we try to take our mind off hurdles and fences. Regular readers will have had to put up with me moaning about how I lost a fortune backing Jeremy Noseda's Grandeur in the trial for this last month, although I also said I'd consider backing him again. But having checked the betting, I've decided to oppose him this afternoon as I was looking for something a bit bigger than 5/1.  Of course if he goes on to win, I'll be left pulling my hair out in frustrating - but when I priced up this race when the declarations came out, I had him down as a 7/1. In the long term, I have to trust that such underpriced bets are best avoided. The one that beat him in the Derby Trial was Grendisar, and Marco Botti's five-year-old gets the nod to complete the double today priced in the region of 4/1. Botti has said that he came out of his last race in great form and he comes here with every chance - although it must be said that he's a quirky sort and he usually idles mid-race. What he really needs is a strong gallop and a somewhat aggressive ride so I hope to see jockey Martin Harley stay up with the pace and give him a shake as soon as he starts to relax. That Winter Derby trial was his third Listed win in the space of a year and he hasn't finished outside the top two in nine races and his record on the all-weather is certainly impressive. All considered, 4/1 is a fair price. Along with Grandeur, Tryster has a good chance of troubling the selection. Charlie Appleby's gelding has beaten some useful sorts to complete a hat-trick of wins in all-weather handicaps and the assessor always seems to be one step behind. He's progressive, that's for sure, although this will be the biggest test he's faced in some time. 


Wayne's book Sports Trading on Betfair is out now: