Trading software

Friday, November 28, 2014

Living dangerously

I've always wondered who the headcases are that lay horses in the place markets at large prices. 

Is there money to be made? Possibly, so I decided to join them and see. 

I've back tested a ratings system I've created which lays horses in the place markets if they meet certain criteria - most horses are large prices although I do have a cut-off at 100.0. 

Basically, the ratings system was created by myself and the rules are that the bottom quarter of the list of rated horses are layed in the place market. In other words, the worst horses (according to my ratings) are layed. The results are very impressive to the minimum €2 stake, producing a grand or two per year (assuming commission is 5%):

Of course, backtesting is one thing and it's always different in real life so I've been doing this in a separate account for the last seven days and already, it's produced over €120 in profit:

That looks great on paper but I suppose it masks the risks. I've had two big losers during that period (one at 55.0 and one at 22.0) but it's kept in profit. However, had I hit a 200.0 shot, I'd be well in the red now. [EDIT: I mean to say a €200 loser which is the 100.0 cut off at the minimum €2 stake).
The big losers will come eventually and it's really a matter of hoping that an extraordinary amount of them don't come along (which is possible but unlikely). When I hit a big loser, it would be nice to have built up a bank to cover it but we'll see how it goes.
It requires plenty of bottle to lay at those prices but so far, so good. I'm not counting my chickens as I know that the worst case scenario is always possible but I'll keep going for a bit and report on progress.

Wayne's book Sports Trading on Betfair is out now:


  1. How can you have a 200-1 loss when you system caps at £100?

  2. Hi there, I'm using the minimum stake of €2.

  3. I sincerely hope you didn't lay Freedom Flying in the 15:25 at Catterick today...

  4. Hi Steve, my ratings don't work as well on handicaps so I avoid them races meaning I didn't manage to lay Freedom Flying thankfully. Unfortunately, I did happen to catch Germany John in the first race at Tramore (layed at 22.0) although it was an otherwise successful day which more or less covered that loss. It's always though going when you catch a big loser like that at the start of the day!

  5. A narrow escape! I purchased your book and want to congratulate you on producing such a realistic and easy to follow guide to sports trading. I am using your support and resistance advice for racing as I find scalping tedious and frustrating but using support and resistance you can get in and out with a swing trade in the right market before all the 'noise' appears ten minutes before the off..

  6. Thanks for your comments on the book Steve. My goal was to be as honest as possible and let people know that there are ways of making money but there are certainly no easy fixes. I hope you get some ideas from it. On the ousiders, I had a great day yesterday... until the last Irish race when I caught 'On The Motorway' at Dundalk at 30.0. Still in the black but those type of things really test the patience!

  7. I think trading comes down to pattern recognition a lot of the time so anyone who jumps in without having watched how markets work will think its all just random. I really believe that's what puts people off because they think you are just guessing which way a price will move. For the Support and Resistance method it is about spotting a 6-8 point range where 90 percent of the money has gone and getting in at the bottom or the top depending on which way the price is shifting. Thanks for showing me that, its pretty reliable and fairly stress free trading!

  8. What do you think about laying to the minimum backer's stake of £10 at SP instead of the minimum laying stake of £2 ... it seems to me it makes for a more even ride with maybe the same longterm profits?

  9. Good afternoon. Do you mean laying to a fixed liability at Betfair SP? (so for example, I don't lose more than £10 per bet). If so, yes, that has proved profitable (1820 points to a £10 fixed liability since 2008) and as you point out, it has been a mor even ride. Something I may consider more.