Trading software

Friday, February 17, 2012

A recovery, of sorts

After a bit of a horrendous time with the form study bets (the bets I get up early each morning to do), I’ve finally made a bit of a recovery, as you can see from the chart below. The strike rate is back over 50pc and today (Thursday), I’ve just equaled the record of seven wins in-a-row, albeit at short prices. 

However, as you can see from the chart, it’s been pretty much downhill lately so the recent run of good form is nothing to write home about. A few months ago, I had said I’d trial this over 100 bets before posting the selections on the blog but even though I’ve passed that number of bets, there’s still a bit I want to record and test and may hold off posting the bets for a while. 

While it’s profitable overall so far, it’s disappointing to drop down from the highs of over €300 to a €10 stake. That said, anything with a 50pc strike rate will hit long winning/losing runs and what has happened is nothing out of the ordinary statistically. Anyway, hopefully I can keep plugging away and stay in the black. Here's the stats:

Bets: 162
Wins: 82
Strike Rate:51pc
Profit to a €10 stake at Betfair SP (at 5pc commission): €226.70
All-time high: €316.00
Return on investment: €13.91pc
Average Betfair SP: 3.03
Longest sequence of winners in a row: 7 (twice)
Longest sequence of losers in a row: 6 (once)

Monday, February 13, 2012

Apple shares: buy or sell?

They say that when your average Joe on the street is giving you tips to buy shares, you know it’s time to sell. Two people this week mentioned Apple shares to me and I wonder if it’s a bit overpriced. But then again, they really are an innovative company and there’s no real reason to think they won’t continue to grow. They hit over $500 per share today which is huge when you consider the fact that they were less than $100 back in 2009. 

When Steve Jobs dies, a lot of people predicted their demise but that hasn’t been the case and they are still reporting very good earnings. That said, the likes of Samsung are really giving them a run for their money in the smartphone market and Apple will have to up their game with the next iPhone as the last update wasn’t really much different. 

So are they a buy or sell?  I’m too much of a chicken to make that call and it’s just one I’ll watch with interest instead. 

Apple share price since 1985: