tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-48862906272635548772023-11-16T11:02:59.884+00:00Wayne Bailey Racing and TradingPunting, trading and thoughts of the day.Wayne Bailey Racinghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06345487660269806703noreply@blogger.comBlogger625125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4886290627263554877.post-6947799550581717442017-05-21T16:59:00.004+01:002017-05-21T16:59:57.301+01:00New book - Professional BettingDelighted to announce that my new book <b>Professional Betting</b> is now available. Click on the image for more information.<br />
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<a href="http://www.waynebaileyracing.com/book" target="_blank"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjwYddXG7YGwu_KdSkYJgJGi58fdGZTE9cAaIkUMajVi-_lQMKeedcinStxqRd418rcyeOW24m-raFJzD16EQNcSP6vSKory2apPc10VzbHZ65-RPCjjZT5862ySqIL5NnzbpSRtVd-xMyy/s320/Professional+Betting+Wayne+Bailey+cover.JPG" width="234" /></a></div>
<br />Wayne Bailey Racinghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06345487660269806703noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4886290627263554877.post-723373961056247722016-07-30T13:24:00.002+01:002016-07-30T13:24:34.992+01:00Galway & Goodwood, Saturday.Not a bad day yesterday with some good money earned. Here's Saturday's bets:<br />
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<a href="http://www.independent.ie/sport/horse-racing/galway-races/rivellino-looks-set-to-score-big-for-burke-team-34924749.html">http://www.independent.ie/sport/horse-racing/galway-races/rivellino-looks-set-to-score-big-for-burke-team-34924749.html</a><br />
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<a href="http://shop1.racingpost.com/Sports-Trading-On-Betfair-by-Wayne-Bailey-p/sportbet.htm" target="_blank"><img alt="http://shop1.racingpost.com/Sports-Trading-On-Betfair-by-Wayne-Bailey-p/sportbet.htm" border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEghsmh8ZnoSJtKrz_PnzEpWokkEfRJXEfryaZcIcf72ScqPeuuIKEFGgop2QYbwBjjnWvhxbP2_b3ncsnx6fsN3okxO7V7Haw8XDjrB2B7zzDx8zK2R0WWQOIDo5GA_sixdwwSZCY2TCjk-/s320/STOB+cover.jpg" width="225" /></a></div>
Wayne Bailey Racinghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06345487660269806703noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4886290627263554877.post-10436860955628838882016-07-29T09:35:00.003+01:002016-07-29T09:35:34.411+01:00Galway 2016: Friday betsHi folks, Galway's been tough enough - had a few naps landed but a few other near misses and haven't landed a killer blow. But we soldier on and take on the layers again on Friday:<br />
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<a href="http://www.independent.ie/sport/horse-racing/galway-races/martins-golden-spear-to-cut-down-rivals-34921644.html">http://www.independent.ie/sport/horse-racing/galway-races/martins-golden-spear-to-cut-down-rivals-34921644.html</a><br />
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<a href="http://shop1.racingpost.com/Sports-Trading-On-Betfair-by-Wayne-Bailey-p/sportbet.htm" target="_blank"><img alt="http://shop1.racingpost.com/Sports-Trading-On-Betfair-by-Wayne-Bailey-p/sportbet.htm" border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEghsmh8ZnoSJtKrz_PnzEpWokkEfRJXEfryaZcIcf72ScqPeuuIKEFGgop2QYbwBjjnWvhxbP2_b3ncsnx6fsN3okxO7V7Haw8XDjrB2B7zzDx8zK2R0WWQOIDo5GA_sixdwwSZCY2TCjk-/s320/STOB+cover.jpg" width="225" /></a></div>
Wayne Bailey Racinghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06345487660269806703noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4886290627263554877.post-43012381438380747512016-07-28T10:55:00.001+01:002016-07-28T10:55:50.975+01:00Galway betting - day four ThursdayThursday's bets for Galway:<br />
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http://www.independent.ie/sport/horse-racing/galway-races/marinero-looks-promising-for-new-yard-34918356.htmlWayne Bailey Racinghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06345487660269806703noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4886290627263554877.post-60518011651928072272016-07-27T08:40:00.003+01:002016-07-27T08:40:43.105+01:00Galway 2016: day three bettingMorning all,<br />
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Today's selections for Galway:<br />
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<a href="http://www.independent.ie/sport/horse-racing/galway-races/catcher-can-land-competitive-plate-34915930.html">http://www.independent.ie/sport/horse-racing/galway-races/catcher-can-land-competitive-plate-34915930.html</a>Wayne Bailey Racinghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06345487660269806703noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4886290627263554877.post-78349555850609955442016-07-26T10:07:00.000+01:002016-07-26T10:07:11.203+01:00Galway Festival 2016: day two bettingI woke up this morning to hear the awful news that JT McNamara has died which obviously casts a huge shadow over Galway.<br />
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Once again, it makes me realise what these jockeys put themselves thorough for the sport, and sometimes, it is a matter of life and death. It's truly awful news and my heart goes out to his family.<br />
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***<br />
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Day one went OK - my nap won which was grand as it was my biggest bet but I didn't earn much elsewhere. Here's day two:<br />
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<a href="http://www.independent.ie/sport/horse-racing/galway-races/three-wise-men-the-smart-choice-to-deliver-goods-34912097.html">http://www.independent.ie/sport/horse-racing/galway-races/three-wise-men-the-smart-choice-to-deliver-goods-34912097.html</a><br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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Wayne Bailey Racinghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06345487660269806703noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4886290627263554877.post-81318444352608996542016-07-25T11:02:00.002+01:002016-07-25T11:07:54.559+01:00Galway Festival: day one bettingHi folks,<br />
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It's been a few months since I blogged. I'm going to try get back into it as not everyone is on Twitter although it is much easier to send a quick tweet these days rather than logging into a blog and that's where I can be found: <br />
<h2 class="ProfileHeaderCard-screenname u-inlineBlock u-dir" dir="ltr">
<a class="ProfileHeaderCard-screennameLink u-linkComplex js-nav" href="https://twitter.com/WayneBaileyTips">@<span class="u-linkComplex-target">WayneBaileyTips</span></a></h2>
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That said, blogs can be handy for longer posts or using graphics and as I say, I might get back here with some betting and trading strategies I'm working on.<br />
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Anyway, it's that time of the year again - the Galway Festival. I've a column in the paper each day - here's my day one bets:<br />
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<a href="http://www.independent.ie/sport/horse-racing/galway-races/wayne-bailey-honourable-can-make-it-business-as-usual-for-weld-34908692.html">http://www.independent.ie/sport/horse-racing/galway-races/wayne-bailey-honourable-can-make-it-business-as-usual-for-weld-34908692.html</a><br />
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By the way, there's a sale on at the Racing Post shop so my book can be bought at £6.49 which is half price. Click on the image below.<br />
<br />
Wayne <br />
<br />
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Wayne Bailey Racinghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06345487660269806703noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4886290627263554877.post-72659679502943311652016-03-18T09:36:00.002+00:002016-03-18T09:37:46.801+00:00Cheltenham Festival betting: day four FridayMorning all, not a bad day yesterday with Vaotour (evs), Thistlecrack (evs) and Cause Of Causes (9/2). Thistlecrack was my banker for the week so I made a nice few quid there. The Gold Cup today is a cracker - I backed Don Cossack in the King George and I'm sticking with him. I used to do a bit of work with Gordon Elliott on the Betfair Blog years back and I remember him telling me that this horse is something special (when it was a four-year-old). I think his day has come although it's going to be a tough race and Cue Card has very serious claims. Can't wait! Here's today's Irish Independent column - race by race guide near the end of the page .<br />
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<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b>Don set to strike Gold and finally be crowned king</b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
In 1892, an American bloke by the name of John Philip Quinn
wrote a book called Fools of Fortune, which was a comprehensive history of
betting - and indeed the destructive effects it can have on people. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
In one chapter, he explains how the dingy gambling dens of
America had poker tables with a hole in the centre, and a metal box underneath
in which money could be collected. When a player lost money, he'd push it in
the hole. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
After the game, the owner of the den would empty the box,
take a large cut, and then pay out the winner. Those unfortunates who had put
all their money in the hole were usually unceremoniously kicked out.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
On St. Stephen's Day just gone, I ended up deep in the hole
myself when a bet of half a monkey (€250) went awry on the Gordon
Elliott-trained Don Cossack in the King George. It wasn't a great way to end
the year but it's all part of what is sometimes described as the glorious
uncertainty of racing. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
While I cursed my own luck after his fall, I suppose the
important thing here is that the horse and jockey were OK afterwards and on
Wednesday, Elliott's stable were given a stark reminder of how this game can
dish up contrasting fortunes at will. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Having won the Coral Cup with Diamond King, we learned a few
hours later that Elliott's ultra-talented No More Heroes had to be put down for
his fall earlier in the RSA Chase, and I'm sure any success at the festival is
not taken in the least bit for granted by all the staff at Cullentra House. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
As upsetting as it is to lose a horse, the world keeps on
turning and focus now is on the Gold Cup (3.30). The big question, of course,
is whether <b>Don Cossack </b>would have beaten Cue Card in the King George had he
stayed up. In my view, the answer is yes but then again, I am a bit biased
having had a financial interest in the event.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Having lost his way mid-race, he rallied gamely four fences
out and was closing the gap before crashing out. It's one of those questions we
can never answer, although he gets another crack at the whip today. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Like many, I must admit I underestimated Cue Card in the
King George and he deserves enormous respect today, having beat yesterday's
Ryanair Chase winner Vautour into second. I'm finding it hard to say anything
negative about Cue Card although the last ten-year-old to win was Cool Dawn in
1998. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Last year's runner-up Djakadam has very strong claims
although Willie Mullins is yet to win the race in fourteen attempts.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Djakadam's fall last time out is also a concern. A few weeks
ago, I mentioned how horses which fell last time out have a poor record at the
festival although that didn't stop Ballyalton winning one of the handicap
chases on Tuesday. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Don Cossack had a good warm-up when winning the Kinloch Brae
at 1/8 and I think he'll just about scrape it, finally confirming that he's one
of the greats - just like Elliott predicted a few years ago.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>When you throw Don Poli and Smad Place into
the mix, we are in for a real treat this year. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
In the Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle (2.50), <b>Barters Hill</b>
is the one to beat, priced around 3/1. With seven wins in as many races, he
beat Tuesday's Supreme Novices' winner Altior in a bumper at Newbury last year
and battled gamely to win the River Don Novices Hurdle last time, having made
some mistakes throughout. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b>STAT ATTACK: VINCENT O'BRIEN HANDICAP</b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Paul Nicholls has an excellent record in the Vincent O'Brien
County Handicap Hurdle (2.10) with four wins and three places since 1999. Had
you backed each of his 23 runners blindly, you'd show a level stakes profit of
23 points although the Irish also have a good record here too.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The Ditcheat handler has three representatives today, namely
Modus, Some Plan and All Yours. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Fifth in a Wincanton handicap last time, All Yours is the
most popular of the three in the early markets around 12/1, having won a Grade
One hurdle at Aintree back in April.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<b>
</b><br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b>RACE-BY-RACE </b></div>
<b>
</b><br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b>GUIDE TO DAY 4</b></div>
<b>
</b><br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
1.30</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b>Zubayr</b> can get Paul Nicholls off to a good start in the
opener. Eight of the last eleven winners of this race came from the first three
in the betting and the selection offers a bit of value around 9/2. He cost
nearly €400,000 last year and got his British career of to a winning start at
Kempton. Ivanovich Gorbatov is the big danger.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
2.10</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
A big field handicap with a number of interesting entries
but the Evan Williams-trained <b>John Constable</b> catches the eye each-way in the
early markets around 12/1. Formerly an Aidan O'Brien flat horse, he's still
unexposed over hurdles. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
2.50</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Willie Mullins has a strong hand here with the likes of Long
Dog and Gangster but he's had 18 losers in this race including Boston Bob
(6/5), Briar Hill (2/1) and Black Hercules (5/2). <b>Barters Hill</b> is preferred.
He's beaten some good horses in his seven-race career and will have no problem
staying the distance.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
3.30</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
A fascinating renewal of jump racing's biggest contest where
<b>Don Cossack</b> can prove he's one of the best chasers in the business by beating
Cue Card. He was unfortunate to fall in the King George and some would argue
that he would have won were it not for the spill.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
4.10</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
All eyes will be on Olympic gold medal winning cyclist
Victoria Pendleton, who deserves credit for completing the challenge of
switching saddles and making it to Cheltenham. <b>Pacha Du Polder</b> has the scope to win
but the jockey's inexperience is a negative so a fun each-way bet around 16/1
might be the way to go.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
4.50</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The Nigel Twiston-Davies trained <b>Flying Angel</b> won the
Imperial Cup at Sandown last Saturday and comes here off a lenient mark of 138
albeit with a 5lb penalty. A progressive sort, he can run a big race here
priced in the region of 16/1.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
5.30</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The festival closes with a very tricky race where last
year's winner Next Sensation has claims. But he's a little short in the betting
and a chance is taken on Nicky Henderson's <b>Lough Kent</b> which is expected to
bounce back to form after a break. The early price of 14/1 seems generous.<br />
<br />
***<br />
Described by the Racing Post as 'the best book of its type so far', <i>Sports trading on Betfair</i> by Wayne Bailey is now available:<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://www.amazon.co.uk/Sports-Trading-Betfair-Wayne-Bailey/dp/1910498319/ref=tmm_pap_title_0?_encoding=UTF8&sr=&qid=" target="_blank"><img alt="http://shop1.racingpost.com/Sports-Trading-On-Betfair-by-Wayne-Bailey-p/sportbet.htm" border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEghsmh8ZnoSJtKrz_PnzEpWokkEfRJXEfryaZcIcf72ScqPeuuIKEFGgop2QYbwBjjnWvhxbP2_b3ncsnx6fsN3okxO7V7Haw8XDjrB2B7zzDx8zK2R0WWQOIDo5GA_sixdwwSZCY2TCjk-/s320/STOB+cover.jpg" width="225" /></a></div>
</div>
Wayne Bailey Racinghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06345487660269806703noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4886290627263554877.post-21768913116543603362016-03-17T09:00:00.000+00:002016-03-17T09:00:00.730+00:00Cheltenham Festival betting: day three ThursdayWell, two days down and two to go.<br />
<br />
I got out of jail with a winner in the bumper yesterday - it would have been a tough day otherwise although an each way bet on Long House Hall (2nd @ 16/1) paid some nice place money. Although I opposed him, you couldn't help but love to see Sprinter Sacre win the Champion Chase. Everyone loves a good comeback story and this was a cracker. Overall, I'm keeping the head above water at least - some tricky races today but we'll give it a go. Thistlecrack is my banker of the week so I hope he doesn't let me down. Here's today's <a href="http://www.independent.ie/sport/horse-racing/" target="_blank">Irish Independent</a> column. Race by race guide near the bottom of the page:<br />
<br />
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<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">TALENTED THISTLECRACK
HAS THE WORLD AT HIS FEET</b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The Ryanair Chase (2.50) was introduced when the Cheltenham
Festival became a four-day event in 2005 but despite being sponsored by an
Irish company, horses trained in this country have a poor record with all 32
participants losing to date. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Although it has been a Grade One since 2008, most Irish
trainers prefer to take their chances in the Gold Cup if they have a very good
horse so the representatives from Ireland have not always been the best the respective
stable has to offer. That mostly accounts for the poor showing from the Irish
in the last decade although that looks set to change this afternoon with Willie
Mullins' Vautour controversially scratched from the Gold Cup to line up here
instead. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Vautour's owner Rich Ricci has apologised to punters who had
backed him for Friday's showpiece having previously said that the
seven-year-old would go to the Gold Cup or else stay at home. I'm in two minds
about some of the abuse Rich Ricci has been receiving from punters, especially
online. On the one hand, punters do pay for the sport and it would be nothing
without them - so they deserve to be treated with respect. But on the other, I
think owners and trainers should be free to change their plans for their horses
as they see fit and not be beholden to the betting markets, even if those plans
are changed late on. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
A few years back, I decided that ante-post betting on
Cheltenham was not for me anymore after a string of non-runners left me
severely out of pocket before a single race had started. People tend to forget
that an ante-post wager is essentially two bets: the first is that the horse
will actually line up and the second is that he'll win the race. Years back,
punters were compensated by big prices for betting early on but these days, I
feel that the value is largely gone from ante-post betting. The betting markets
are so competitive around Cheltenham when you include the bookmaker specials to
these days, I prefer to wait until the day before having a bet. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Getting back to the race itself, <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Vautour </b>will go off somewhere in the region of 8/11 and you'd have
to say that the price is about right. Considering the change of plan
connections must feel that the King George runner-up is not 100pc but with
11lbs in hand on official ratings, he can still be below his best and win handy
enough. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The World Hurdle is another race the Irish don't raid too
often with just one winner since 1995. Mouse Morris' <span class="betting-forecast-list">Alpha Des Obeaux is our best hope here. He hit
evens in-running when falling in an Aintree novices' hurdle won by Thistlecrack
in April and following a couple of places, he got back to winning ways in the
Galmoy Hurdle at Gowran and one or two bookmakers I know have taken quite a few
quid for the six-year-old since. It would be nice to see him run a big one but
my banker of the week is <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Thistlecrack</b>
- although I won't win any awards for originality here at a price of even-money
or thereabouts. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The trial races are a good pointer for this race and he's been
the standout horse in this division winning the Long Distance and Long Walk
hurdles in fine style at Newbury and Ascot respectively. He may actually have
more to come and it's a big compliment that he's being compared to multiple
World Hurdle winner Big Buck's. Last year's winner Cole Harden is respected but
he hasn't won a race since which is an obvious worry. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">STAT ATTACK</b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The David Pipe-trained Salut Flo offered some relief for
punters by winning the Brown Advisory & Merriebelle Stable Plate (4.10) at
9/2 but it's one of the most difficult races of the week to decipher and all other
winners this century were priced in double-figures. With seven winners since
1996, Martin and David Pipe have managed to find the key to success and Pond
House Stables have three representatives in this year's renewal, the most
popular of which in the betting is Kings Palace around 12/1.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">RACE-BY-RACE</b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
1.30<br />
Nigel Twiston-Davies won the RSA Chase yesterday with Blaklion and his stable
can strike again in the opener with <b>Bristol De Mai</b>. The Scilly Isles Chase
winner could be a top-class animal and he jumps really well. Garde La Victoire
and Outlander are others for the shortlist. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
2.10<br />
A very tricky 24-runner handicap where a case could be made for nearly half the
field so not a race for heavy punting. Expected to go off around 40/1, Peter
Bowen's <b>Rolling Maul</b> gets a tentative each-way vote at what seems to be a
reasonably fair mark of 135. Jockey David Noonan claims 5lbs which may help
just a little. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
2.50<br />
One of the best horses in training, it's impossible to oppose <b>Vautour </b>for the
all conquering Willie Mullins stable. He hit 1/10 in-running when beaten by Cue
Card in the King George at Kempton but he's head and shoulders ahead of his
rivals here, even if he's only 90pc fit. <span class="betting-forecast-list">Road
To Riches can fill one of the places.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span class="betting-forecast-list">3.30<br />
Big Buck's dominated the staying division for a number of years and we've yet
to find one of that calibre to replace him but </span><b>Thistlecrack</b> can take up
the mantle. Collin Tizzard's gelding can handle various types of ground and
always finds plenty when the going gets tough.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
4.10<br />
If Einstein were alive, he'd probably find this race just as hard to figure out
as the rest of us so stakes should be kept to a fun-sized level. Paul Nicholls'
<b>Stilletto</b> is as good a pick as any around 10/1 having won a handicap at
Leicester last time by ten lengths. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
4.50<br />
A new race for the festival, Brian Ellison's tough as teak mare <b>Smart Talk</b> gets
the nod ahead of Willie Mullins' Limini. The selection made a bad mistake at
Doncaster last time but she battled on to beat Lily Waugh and Morning Run at
7/1.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>5.30<br />
Jockey Jamie Codd has won this race three times and can do so again on <b>Cause Of
Causes</b>. Gordon Elliott's charge was the runner-up in 2014 and early odds of
11/2 look about right. </div>
<br />
<br />
***<br />
Described by the Racing Post as 'the best book of its type so far', <i>Sports trading on Betfair</i> by Wayne Bailey is now available:<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://www.amazon.co.uk/Sports-Trading-Betfair-Wayne-Bailey/dp/1910498319/ref=tmm_pap_title_0?_encoding=UTF8&sr=&qid=" target="_blank"><img alt="http://shop1.racingpost.com/Sports-Trading-On-Betfair-by-Wayne-Bailey-p/sportbet.htm" border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEghsmh8ZnoSJtKrz_PnzEpWokkEfRJXEfryaZcIcf72ScqPeuuIKEFGgop2QYbwBjjnWvhxbP2_b3ncsnx6fsN3okxO7V7Haw8XDjrB2B7zzDx8zK2R0WWQOIDo5GA_sixdwwSZCY2TCjk-/s320/STOB+cover.jpg" width="225" /></a></div>
<br />Wayne Bailey Racinghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06345487660269806703noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4886290627263554877.post-19869698736675213852016-03-16T07:58:00.001+00:002016-03-16T07:59:34.265+00:00Cheltenham Festival 2016: day two bettingMorning everyone.<br />
<br />
Not a bad day yesterday with three winners although with two of them odds-on, it didn't set the world alight. However Altior in the opening Supreme Novices' race was a decent price at just over 9/2 on Betfair and 4/1 SP.<br />
<br />
Native River was second at 7/1 (hit evens in-running) which would have been nice but overall, I'm happy to make a modest profit on the day.<br />
<br />
Very much looking forward to the Champion Chase. It's got a great narrative with the old horses taking on the new. I think the Mullins horse will get there, provided he stays up. Below is today's <a href="http://www.independent.ie/sport/horse-racing/" target="_blank">Irish Independent</a> column - best of luck with your bets today. Race by race guide near the bottom of the page:<br />
<br />
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<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b>Un De Sceaux to dethrone the old guard in Champion</b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The 2013 Queen Mother Champion Chase (3.30) winner Sprinter
Sacre will today attempt to emulate the great Moscow Flyer by winning the race
aged in double figures. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
But there's a reason the younger horses have a good record
here and that's because it's usually run at a fierce pace. Unlike some of the
less frantic staying races, it's extremely difficult to recover from a mistake
over the two-mile trip so accuracy when jumping is of paramount importance. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
I'm sure he'd raise the roof if he came home in front, and
having backed him numerous times down through the years, I'll be kicking myself
for not being a part of it. But Sprinter Sacre's had a number of problems since
his outstanding win three years ago and it's a big ask. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Fair enough, he showed that he's still got something to
offer when winning the Shloer Chase and the Desert Orchid Chase this term - but
a price of 9/2 or thereabouts is a fair reflection of his chances. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
2014 winner Sire De Grugy is also aged ten but was beaten by
Un De Sceaux and Sprinter Sacre in his latest two races, and there's nothing to
suggest the form will be reversed this afternoon. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Dodging Bullets is worth a mention too having won this race
last year. With Sprinter Sacre and Sire De Grugy running far below their best
in that renewal, the strength of that form is open to question but to win any
race at Cheltenham is a big deal so I'm going to give credit where it's due.
Unfortunately, he's been mostly out with injury and was beaten on his comeback
run by Top Gamble in the Game Spirit Chase. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
So with question marks over the last three winners of the
race, the vote has got to go to <b>Un De Sceaux</b>, albeit at an odds-on price. He
destroyed Sire De Grugy in the Clarence House, he has the speed for this type
of race - and he jumps aggressively which all points to a first Champion Chase
for Willie Mullins. But paradoxically, that vigorous jumping may actually be
his Achilles heel. He's now fallen twice in his seven races over fences so it
will be interesting to see if Ruby Walsh tries to temper his enthusiasm a
little this afternoon. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Third in this last year, Special Tiara has place claims
although he was beaten fair and square in the Tingle Creek by Sire De Grugy.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
In the RSA Chase (2.10), 2014 World Hurdle winner More Of
That will probably go off as favourite but I must admit that I've found it hard
to get a handle on this horse. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
While seven wins from eight runs is a fantastic record, his
career has been going in a stop-start fashion for a number of years, and his
latest race when winning a three-runner novice chase here in December didn't
teach us much. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Previously, he won a novice chase with a bit more depth to
it at the November meeting so he certainly has claims, but at the prices he's
best avoided. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Gordon Elliott's <b>No More Heroes</b> ticks the right boxes for
me. A good hurdler in his day, he's shaping up to be an even better chaser
winning all three starts over fences, although the downside is that he hasn't
had a race since December. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Having said that, Don Poli won this last year after a
similar break and No More Heroes has done some schooling with Don Cossack which
I'm sure has taught him quite a bit.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b>STAT ATTACK: NEPTUNE NOVICES' HURDLE</b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The Ferdy Murphy-trained French Holly won the Neptune
Investment Management Novices' Hurdle (1.30) at the age of seven in 1998 priced
2/1 but overall, older horses have a very poor record here. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Since that success, some 50 horses aged seven or older have
competed but not one has won. Parlour Games (13/2) and Outlander (4/1) finished
second and sixth respectively last year in a race which went to Dermot Weld's
Windsor Park (9/2). Weld saddles the only seven-year-old today, Vigil, which is
expected to go off around 20/1.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b>RACE-BY-RACE </b></div>
<b>
</b><br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b>GUIDE TO DAY 2</b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
1.30</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Willie Mullins' Yorkhill is yet another top-notch prospect
but this can go to Alan King's <b>Yanworth, </b>which was trading a shade odds-against
yesterday evening. An outstanding course win here in January confirmed he's one
of the best in this division.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
2.10</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
This could end up being a match between More Of That and <b>No
More Heroes</b> and preference is for the latter at a slightly bigger price. Gordon
Elliott has some of the best chasers in training at the moment and this is one
of them.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
2.50</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Quite a tough race for punters recently,<b> Long House Hall</b>
gets an each-way vote around 14/1. Dan Skelton's gelding won a Cheltenham
handicap hurdle in April, and he might be well handicapped on a mark of 140
considering he won a novices' chase at Bangor with plenty in hand.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
3.30</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Quite a number of previous winners have come back for more
and Sprinter Sacre, Dodging Bullets and Sire De Grugy all deserve respect. But
the fast-paced nature of the race may see the older horses struggle leaving <b>Un
De Sceaux</b> to claim the prize for Willie Mullins.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
4.10</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Enda Bolger used to win this race regularly and Josies
Orders' winning course and distance form gives him in edge - but he's very
short in the betting and <b>Third Intention</b> gets the nod instead at an each-way
price. His form has been up and down but this type of race might give him a
lift.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
4.50</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The John Ferguson-trained <b>Jaleo</b> races in a handicap hurdle
for the first time and an opening mark of 135 seems fair. He was full of zest
when beating Our Thomas in a juvenile hurdle at Catterick last month and I've
stuck him in the notebook as one to keep onside in his next few races.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
5.30</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Good recent form is a must in the bumper but this year,
around two-thirds of the field have won their most recent race so that doesn't
narrow it down very much. As always, the Willie Mullins' horses will prove
popular in the betting but Nigel Twiston-Davies' <b>Ballyandy </b>has done little
wrong and won a similar race here in November.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
****<br />
<br />
Described by the Racing Post as 'the best book of its type so far', <i>Sports trading on Betfair</i> by Wayne Bailey is now available:<br />
<br /></div>
<br />
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Wayne Bailey Racinghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06345487660269806703noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4886290627263554877.post-68863478987683798932016-03-15T07:58:00.001+00:002016-03-15T08:05:47.826+00:00Cheltenham Festival 2016: day one bettingMorning all, that time of year again.<br />
<br />
Not much of an intro needed here, it's obviously the biggest week of the year for those of us involved with betting and trading. Here's today's <a href="http://www.independent.ie/sport/horse-racing/">Irish Independent</a> column for day one. Race by race guide near the bottom:<br />
<b><br /></b>
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</b><br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b>Min looks exciting but the figures add up for Altior</b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
These days, the sport known as bandy is similar to ice
hockey - but the original game came from 16th Century France, and was actually
a form of tennis. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
It later became a stick-based game and while the Irish
already had hurling, Bandy became popular for a while in Britain. When the ball
was passed from player to player, it was said to be 'bandied' about and keeping
the ball out of the hands of the opposition by regular passing was one of the
skills of the game.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
With Cheltenham finally here a lot of tips and information,
reliable and otherwise, will be bandied about this week but as I say every
year, the form book is your best friend when it comes to the top class races
and the quality doesn't get any better than this.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
While horse racing and betting is often accused of being
corrupt, at least you can be sure that every single horse will be trying its
best this week and with so many special offers from bookmakers, it's actually
become a little easier to make a profit following the top horses in recent
years. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Although we all love bagging a nice-priced outsider, you
certainly need a good reason to oppose the better horses at Cheltenham and
those that dislike backing favourites should consider being a little more
flexible in certain races for the week that's in it. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
To illustrate my point about the form standing up, take the
clear top-rated horse (on official ratings) in the non-handicaps: such horses
have won 36 times from 112 races (32pc) since 2008. Had you stuck a tenner on
each, you'd show a profit of €240. I'm not suggesting you blindly bet without
further analysis, but considering that simple approach has shown a profit in
seven of the last eight festivals, the top form horses should always be your
starting point. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
On that note, the Nicky Henderson-trained <b>Altior</b> looks a
solid bet around 7/2 in the opening Supreme Novices' Hurdle (1.30) with a
rating of 155, 2lbs ahead Willie Mullins' favourite Min. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
My main worry for Min is that he can get slightly worked up
at the racecourse and tends to race keenly. While the likely speed of the
Supreme Novices' might suit him, the hustle and bustle nature of the race, plus
the atmosphere from the crowd, might be unsettling. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Altior won a significant contest last time at Kempton and
although he hit a flat spot mid-race, he showed true class when asked to up his
game by Nico de Boinville. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Henderson hasn't won this since 1992 but with a place
strike-rate of 47pc in the last ten years, his horses are almost always
thereabouts.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The Champion Hurdle (3.30) has been blown wide open with
Arctic Fire and Faugheen out, and I get the feeling that some punters are
latching on to Annie Power almost by default. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
She was supplemented for the race as expected which is a big
vote of confidence, but it's over two decades since a female horse won and a
price of 7/4 or thereabouts is a little short for me. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Instead, a chance is taken on stablemate<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><b>Nichols Canyon</b>, expected go off at 5/1. A
below-par run in the Irish Champion Hurdle is forgiven as he'd had a tough race
previously and I expect him to bounce back to form today.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b>STAT ATTACK: ULTIMA HANDICAP CHASE</b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Despite sending a total of 19 runners to the Ultima Handicap
Chase (2.50) down through the years, Paul Nicholls has never had a winner.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
In the early 2000s, quite a few were fancied including
Colourful Life (7/1), Royal Auclair (7/1) and Ad Hoc (twice at 5/1 and 7/1) but
more recently, his horses have went off in double-figure prices. It seems the
market called it right, with the record of his last six runners reading 05UPU7.
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Still, the Ditcheat handler hasn't lost faith and is
represented by general 14/1 shot Southfield Theatre today.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b>RAC E-BY-RACE </b></div>
<b>
</b><br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b>GUIDE TO DAY 1</b></div>
<b>
</b><br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
1.30</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Min has so far lived up to the hype winning both races since
coming to Ireland, but he was 4/11 and 1/7 so this is his first real test and
he could be vulnerable to the likes of <b>Altior</b>. Nicky Henderson's charge will
also be tested like never before - but he has won over the course and distance
which may just give him an edge.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
2.05</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Willie Mullins has named <b>Douvan</b> as his best chance of a
winner this week so it's no surprise to see him as short as 4/11 in the
betting. Sizing John was second to Douvan over the Christmas at Leopardstown
and may be the one to follow him home again.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
2.50</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The Warren Greatrex-trained <b>Out Sam</b> is a worthy favourite
around 11/2 off a mark of 139. He beat Milansbar at Newbury last time and that
form has been boosted with Milansbar going on to win at Exeter. Jonjo O'Neill's
Holywell is another one for the shortlist.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
3.30</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
A wide-open renewal which can go to Willie Mullins'
second-string <b>Nichols Canyon</b>. He appeared tired when third in the Irish
Champion Hurdle which came quite soon after his success over Identity Thief in
the Ryanair Hurdle. Stablemate Annie Power is obviously the big danger but
looks a little skinny in the betting.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
4.10</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Once again, the strength of Willie Mullins' day-one team is
evident, and <b>Vroum Vroum Mag</b> can justify her price around evens to make it an
eight victory in-a-row for the stable in this race. She's extremely versatile
and has now racked up eight wins in as many races over both timber and fences.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
4.50</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
This looks quite tricky but odds in the region of 7/1 seem
quite fair for <b>Native River.</b> Trained by Colin Tizzard, the gelding seemed
distracted at Wetherby last time but he has a bit of talent deep down, and the
application of cheekpieces should help him concentrate.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
5.30</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b>Willow's Saviour </b>won a novice chase at Fakenham last time
and a mark of 138 looks quite lenient. Dan Skelton's nine-year-old was a decent
hurdler in his time, beating Ptit Zig to win the Ladbroke Hurdle at Ascot in
2013.</div>
<br />
<br />
****<br />
<br />
Described by the Racing Post as 'the best book of its type so far', <i>Sports trading on Betfair</i> by Wayne Bailey is now available:<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://www.amazon.co.uk/Sports-Trading-Betfair-Wayne-Bailey/dp/1910498319/ref=tmm_pap_title_0?_encoding=UTF8&sr=&qid=" target="_blank"><img alt="http://shop1.racingpost.com/Sports-Trading-On-Betfair-by-Wayne-Bailey-p/sportbet.htm" border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEghsmh8ZnoSJtKrz_PnzEpWokkEfRJXEfryaZcIcf72ScqPeuuIKEFGgop2QYbwBjjnWvhxbP2_b3ncsnx6fsN3okxO7V7Haw8XDjrB2B7zzDx8zK2R0WWQOIDo5GA_sixdwwSZCY2TCjk-/s320/STOB+cover.jpg" width="225" /></a></div>
<br />Wayne Bailey Racinghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06345487660269806703noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4886290627263554877.post-43885040899980965482016-01-05T10:33:00.000+00:002016-01-05T10:33:40.082+00:002016 betting and trading<!--[if !mso]>
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<img class="irc_mi" height="180" src="http://i.kinja-img.com/gawker-media/image/upload/s--RtwG5dYM--/ykvntwjoextzejcxw95f.jpg" style="margin-top: 17px;" width="320" /> </div>
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Well, that’s another year done and dusted. </div>
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As I always say
each year, I’m not really one for New Year resolutions – I prefer to add
changes slowly along the way each couple of months. Most people’s resolutions
go out the window after a few weeks but that’s generally because they take on too
much on in one go. If you are thinking of making some changes this year, start
with one or two small things and set a reminder in your calendar a month or two
away to add another, once you are used to the first changes. Works for me
anyhow. All that said, I guess January is as good a time as any to look back on
the year just gone and have a think about what’s in store:</div>
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<b>Book(s)</b><br />
2015 was a good one with regard to the book I wrote –<a href="http://www.amazon.co.uk/Sports-Trading-Betfair-Profitable-Exchange/dp/1910498319/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1451988685&sr=8-1&keywords=sports+trading+on+betfair"> Sports Trading on Betfair.</a> The Racing Post took over the title and now publish it in a smaller
compact version which is great. Although it was very difficult and time
consuming writing a book, I quite enjoyed the process and have started on
another book. In fact, I’m about halfway through the second book. The new book
is less specialised and is basically about horse racing betting and how to pick
winners. The working title is ‘<i>Professional Betting</i>’ and I’m going to explain
around seven or eight different strategies that I use each day to pick my horses. I recorded
each bet for the year 2015 and I’ll include the actual bets and P&L at the
back. I hope it will have a wider reach then the specialised <i>Sports Trading on
Betfair </i>although it would also have more competition. I’m hoping to have it out
in the spring, maybe around March/April all going well. </div>
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<b>Irish Independent column</b><br />
The Indo column finished the year about 38 points in profit to Betfair SP and
around 4pts in profit to traditional SP. I mentioned this in <a href="http://www.independent.ie/sport/horse-racing/wayne-bailey-get-the-new-year-off-to-a-cracking-start-with-yorkhill-34329747.html">Saturday’s column</a>
but it just goes to show how shopping around for prices can make a huge
difference in this game. The margins are so tight and you really need to have a
few accounts with various bookmakers and exchanges if you want to have any hope
of securing a profit. My own records show that more than eight times out of ten,
better prices were available on Betfair exchange (even considering commission) compared
to the bookmakers so that’s food for thought if you are loyal or slightly lazy and
always use the one bookmaker. A strategy that is breakeven to SP may well be
quite profitable on the exchanges. Obviously, the goal for 2016 is to keep the
column in profit and it would be great to beat the 2015 figure of 38 points or
so. </div>
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<b>Financial trading</b><br />
I haven’t actually got back into this yet. Time and money really. It’s been an
expensive year for us as a couple with lots of unexpected bills. We are also
trying to save for a deposit for a mortgage so I don’t have much spare cash
floating about for the financial trading right now. It’s definitely something I
remain interested in though and will no doubt come back to it at some stage or
other. </div>
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<b>Betfair trading/betting</b><br />
One of my new year resolutions is to find time to get back into trading as I
haven’t been at it too much lately. It’s a little easier to find time in the
summer when you have the evening races but I’ve had so much on midweek lately
that I can only grab a quick market here or there. That never really works too
well though, and you can find yourself not ‘tuned in’ when you only trade
sporadically. So for the new year, I’ve set myself a goal to trade at least 20
markets per week (or at least look at 20 markets per week to see if any
opportunities exist). Consistency is key when trading so I’m trying to get back
to it on a more structured level. 20 markets is not a whole lot at all but I'm really trying to focus on quality rather than quantity here and only work on markets which I find good to trade and have worked for me in the past. </div>
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<b>New betting strategies</b><br />
I’ve had to cut back my portfolio a little – as mentioned, it was an expensive
year for us bills wise – the two cars gave up on us meaning I’d to buy a new
one, the wife had some expensive dental work done on her teeth and a whole load
of other bills came along. All told, I think I withdrew around five grand from
Betfair to pay for some of the bills so things like the outsider place strategy
etc. which takes up a lot of liability have had to be put on the backburner as
I reduced my banks. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>As I build up my
tank again, I’ll add more strategies. It’s frustrating to have to withdraw
money to pay for bills but on the other side of the coin, isn’t that the whole
point of this? Extra money for those rainy days and all that.</div>
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<b>Health and fitness. </b><br />
No major goals here for 2016 only to get back to going running 3 times per week
(I must admit I’ve been a bit lazy and have cut it down to two recently). I’m
also trying to keep the cholesterol down and have decided to have a vegan day
once a week (don’t laugh!) just to see. I read a book called <a href="http://www.amazon.co.uk/China-Study-Comprehensive-Nutrition-Implications/dp/1932100660/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1451989317&sr=8-1&keywords=the+china+study">The China Study</a>
which basically says a whole food plant-based diet is best for us although I
don’t think I could go the whole hog. This is a start although I haven’t turned
into some sort of crusty and still have a good steak and a bottle of wine every
so often. </div>
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<b>Wayne Bailey Racing</b><br />
It was another profitable year for my tipping website <a href="http://www.waynebaileyracing.com/">www.waynebaileyracing.com</a> with a
profit of just under €600 to a €10 stake (see chart below from the proofing website
<a href="http://www.racing-index.com/tipsters/proofed/waynebaileyracing_as.html">Racing Index</a>). That’s a healthy return although it’s disappointing that it is
less than the 2014 return. I’ll keep it going anyway and see what 2016 brings.
Around November, I began proofing some back bets to Racing Index with a view to
adding them to my website should they be successful. They got off to a flyer
and then absolutely tanked and remain around breakeven right now! I’ll continue
with those for a while though, as they have proved profitable for me long term.</div>
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Anyway, that’s about it for now. Thanks for the comments and
emails in 2015 and I hope 2016 is profitable for you.</div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Wayne</div>
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" width="400" /></div>
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Wayne Bailey Racinghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06345487660269806703noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4886290627263554877.post-23008106118823929812015-08-16T10:21:00.001+01:002015-08-16T10:23:58.173+01:00Sports Trading on Betfair now published by Raceform (£12.99)Hi all,<br />
<br />
I'm delighted to announce that my book 'Sports Trading on Betfair' is now published by Raceform.<br />
<br />
It's been produced for the much cheaper price of £12.99 and is available on the Racing Post site (click on image below). It's also available as a<a href="http://www.amazon.co.uk/Sports-Trading-Betfair-Profitable-Exchange-ebook/dp/B013TCIQA6/ref=sr_1_2?ie=UTF8&qid=1439716776&sr=8-2&keywords=wayne+bailey" target="_blank"> Kindle on Amazon. </a><br />
<br />
<a href="http://waynebaileyracing.blogspot.ie/2015/04/racing-post-review-of-my-book.html" target="_blank">Click here for a review of the book.</a><br />
<br />
Thanks for all your support with this project!<br />
<br />
Wayne<br />
<br />
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<a href="http://shop1.racingpost.com/Sports-Trading-On-Betfair-by-Wayne-Bailey-p/sportbet.htm" target="_blank"><img alt="http://shop1.racingpost.com/Sports-Trading-On-Betfair-by-Wayne-Bailey-p/sportbet.htm" border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEghsmh8ZnoSJtKrz_PnzEpWokkEfRJXEfryaZcIcf72ScqPeuuIKEFGgop2QYbwBjjnWvhxbP2_b3ncsnx6fsN3okxO7V7Haw8XDjrB2B7zzDx8zK2R0WWQOIDo5GA_sixdwwSZCY2TCjk-/s320/STOB+cover.jpg" width="225" /></a></div>
<br />Wayne Bailey Racinghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06345487660269806703noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4886290627263554877.post-66957232093859089092015-07-12T10:36:00.000+01:002015-08-16T10:18:39.536+01:00Standing still (and Conor McGregor)Hi folks, a very quick update on my '<a href="http://waynebaileyracing.blogspot.ie/2015/06/a-grand-little-system.html" target="_blank">living dangerously</a>' strategy which I've spoke of recently.<br />
<br />
It's hit a lull at the moment and seems to be one step forward and one step back. I don't think it's anything to worry about too much and standing still is better than going backwards. But it's a little frustrating as it hasn't yet kicked off on the €3 stakes.<br />
<br />
The bank's all time high was €1,352. It now stands at €1,128 having hit a few losers in a row which will happen from time to time.<br />
<br />
As I say, I'm not going to panic but I would like to see it kick back into life again. Here's the stats:<br />
<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
Number of bets: 2473</div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
Losing bets: 58<br />
Strike Rate: 97.65%<br />
Average stake: €2.13<br />
Current stake: €3.00</div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
Average price of bet: 43.23<br />
Average price of losing bets: 31.01</div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<b>Total profit: €1,128.64</b></div>
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<b>** </b></div>
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In other news, it was fantastic to see Conor McGregor win last night against Chad Mendes. At one stage, it looked like he was in trouble but he pulled it out of the bag and landed the killer blow. I know a lot of this is pure entertainment as some people can't warm to it but I'm starting to enjoy it more. Betting wise, McGregor was 4/7 but I'm not sure I'd be confident having a bet on that sport just yet. We get such a lob sided view of things here in Ireland and you barely hear much about McGregor's opponents. But it might be worth betting on in the future as it gets bigger and more exposure. Anyway, well done McGregor, you done the country proud.</div>
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<a href="http://shop1.racingpost.com/Sports-Trading-On-Betfair-by-Wayne-Bailey-p/sportbet.htm" target="_blank"><img alt="http://shop1.racingpost.com/Sports-Trading-On-Betfair-by-Wayne-Bailey-p/sportbet.htm" border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgqfET8_FNFe7X9MGTywocxFBJzwCLvDnE6pSfMMUfoZTL9ED-W2Sj8af_9WLR9-PN6zR81Yqn8hPQATUrQtHCvusqnOfRjrgoEj0IrGAw4zX-FeOGnzMWKem-nXvtWau8yMkf8jhIFPEuI/s320/STOB+cover.jpg" width="225" /></a></div>
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<span style="color: #888888;">Wayne Bailey's book '<b>Sports Trading on Betfair'</b> now availble. Click on the above image for more. <span style="font-size: xx-small;"><br /></span></span></div>
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Wayne Bailey Racinghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06345487660269806703noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4886290627263554877.post-88060865870609692112015-06-10T11:04:00.002+01:002015-06-10T11:14:45.042+01:00A GRAND little system<br />
Good morning folks, it's been a while since I put up a blog. I was away in Portugal last week so I haven't been doing much betting although I got back to it yesterday. Portugal was great craic - I went away with 12 lads from the local pub so it was plenty of fun and great weather too. It was a place called Albefeira (in the Algarve) and the weather was just perfect, around 25-30 degrees each day:<br />
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I'm not trading as much as I'd like due to time restrictions but I'll be back to it soon. I have automated some of my strategies and that's working out OK. Automation is a road I want to look into further - there's something great about heading out for the day, letting the computer do its thing according to your rules, and then (hopefully) coming home to a slightly bigger Betfair balance. But of course, automation comes with loads of extra risks and nothing comes easy. Plenty of stuff can't be automated and you can never account for those random events that happen when trading. But still, if you take the lead from the financial trading world (where there's a huge amount of automation), there are bound to be some opportunities with a bit of hard work. I'll keep working on it.<br />
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As regards the <a href="http://waynebaileyracing.blogspot.ie/2014/11/living-dangerously.html" target="_blank">living dangerously</a> strategy which I've posted about a few times before - it's going very well and I have the profit over the €1,000 mark at this stage. Basically, it involves rating horses, then laying the worst rated horses in the place market. It's risky though, as most horses are high prices although I do have a cut off at 100.0. Until very recently, I had been using €2 stakes but I've upped it to €3 since the bank hit one large (€1,000). Of course, I don't always get my money fully matched. Sometimes I will get a quid or two matched so the average stake has been €1.98. I'm leaving orders under the price a few minutes before the off and if it's not matched, that's fine. At this end of the market, you can't just take any old price just because it's an outsider. You have to be sensitive to getting the best price just as you would were it an odds on shot.<br />
While I haven't withdrawn the money, that's enough to cover my holiday which is what it's all about. It makes the long hours, late nights and early mornings worth it. <br />
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I'd love to get it to €2,000 soon at which point I'll increase the stakes to €4 but it's one step at a time and I'm acutely aware that a couple of bad bets in a row will wipe out hundreds from the bank. I'll keep the blog updated with progress. Here's a snapshot and a chart of how it's been going so far: <br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhYpHxOkBxLypWufbhY16WRhH8Cmi2FOv0Vff_Zylc6LIRJwLaRQI4RSnKg1nL1gCRe5rrxagemUnpyGEnMIvh8HQfp4wqDAXJMD9S3p8IcO8-FsJcAtUqOMg8vWVoUSPJ14uyClFMxex02/s1600/place+laying+wayne+bailey.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="189" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhYpHxOkBxLypWufbhY16WRhH8Cmi2FOv0Vff_Zylc6LIRJwLaRQI4RSnKg1nL1gCRe5rrxagemUnpyGEnMIvh8HQfp4wqDAXJMD9S3p8IcO8-FsJcAtUqOMg8vWVoUSPJ14uyClFMxex02/s320/place+laying+wayne+bailey.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
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Number of bets: 2081</div>
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Losing bets: 44<br />Strike Rate: 97.89%<br />
Average stake: €1.98<br />
Current stake: €3.00</div>
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Average price of bet: 44.17<br />
Average price of losing bets: 34.39</div>
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<b>Total profit: €1,090.55</b></div>
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<b>*** </b></div>
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<span style="color: #888888;">Wayne Bailey's book '<b>Sports Trading on Betfair'</b> is available on Amazon.<br /><span style="font-size: x-small;"><br /></span></span><br />
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<span style="color: #888888;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><a href="http://www.amazon.co.uk/Sports-Trading-Betfair-Profitable-strategies-ebook/dp/B00VJAAH62/ref=sr_1_1?s=digital-text&ie=UTF8&qid=1428061357&sr=1-1&keywords=sports+trading+on+betfair+wayne+bailey" rel="nofollow" target="_blank"><b>Click here for Kindle version (£9.89)</b></a><br /><a href="https://sites.google.com/site/waynebaileyracing/goog_393319196" target="_blank"><b><br /></b></a></span></span></div>
<span style="color: #888888;">
<span style="font-size: xx-small;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><a href="http://www.amazon.co.uk/Sports-Trading-Betfair-Profitable-strategies/dp/1500739391/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1428061416&sr=8-1&keywords=sports+trading+on+betfair+wayne+bailey" rel="nofollow" target="_blank"><b>Click here for Print version (£24.99)</b></a></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #888888;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><a href="http://waynebaileyracing.blogspot.ie/2015/04/racing-post-review-of-my-book.html" target="_blank"><b>Click here to read the Racing Post's book review</b></a></span></span></div>
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Wayne Bailey Racinghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06345487660269806703noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4886290627263554877.post-61616614738742744982015-04-26T12:27:00.000+01:002015-04-26T12:28:33.862+01:00Living dangerously (part 3)It's been a while since I updated progress on my '<a href="http://waynebaileyracing.blogspot.ie/2015/02/living-dangerously-part-two.html" target="_blank">Living Dangerously</a>' strategy where I lay high priced horses in the place markets based on my ratings.<br />
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It took a bit of a nosedive but has recovered and is currently showing a profit of €672.46 to a €2 fixed lay stake.<br />
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<b>The stats are:</b></div>
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Stake: €2 </div>
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Bets: 1511</div>
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Unsuccessful bets:32</div>
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Strike rate: 97.88%</div>
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Total profit: €674.17</div>
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<i><b>The chart:</b></i></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjh4c25Umhmxi1MfmAzyiRga_-bKCQIvVNIoERbiVrxwMjxFP4G0vR0OIMx4hid-nzpHb6Pm5uK88N9X2q7F4DfOzSKXA84ggUzVYazup4jXN0ChujE4R1xJRTOWkby3uDRYCC_HpGQ4p9Q/s1600/outsider+place+apr.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjh4c25Umhmxi1MfmAzyiRga_-bKCQIvVNIoERbiVrxwMjxFP4G0vR0OIMx4hid-nzpHb6Pm5uK88N9X2q7F4DfOzSKXA84ggUzVYazup4jXN0ChujE4R1xJRTOWkby3uDRYCC_HpGQ4p9Q/s1600/outsider+place+apr.jpg" height="186" width="320" /></a></div>
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Overall I'm quite happy with it and the profit of nearly 700 quid is nice to have although I've resisted the urge to up the stakes, especially since I went through a bad patch. It got off to a flyer and it's interesting to see it on a chart because had I started doing this at the beginning of the bad patch where it lost 200 quid, it's possible that I might have scrapped it. That's why it's important to let the data build and not to get too excited by a good start, or too downbeat about a poor run.<br />
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I might raise the stakes to €3 if or when I hit €1,000 profit. It's a slow burner but I'm happy to let it run in the background. A grand is the medium term target - it would be nice to reach that figure by the end of June but you can't really plan like that as a few losing bets in-a-row knocks you back quickly as you can see from the chart. I'll report back again soon on progress.<br />
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Wayne<br />
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<span style="color: #888888;"><a href="http://www.amazon.co.uk/Sports-Trading-Betfair-Profitable-strategies/dp/1500739391/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1428061416&sr=8-1&keywords=sports+trading+on+betfair+wayne+bailey" target="_blank"><img alt="Inline image 1" class="CToWUd" height="154" src="https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/?ui=2&ik=bc64909132&view=fimg&th=14cf4be66c115095&attid=0.1&disp=emb&realattid=ii_1497a7308b949c5c&attbid=ANGjdJ-j7H1IQ8N47KcPQQ4pUKROCazbuSHxqGcj0bg8uwimVj-OIcoaBGrB1FSEnc-Vlyh8dH-a3gYapBw4Z9FAc2PkbcOGoz9YuF-fCxD5mOA7HvhsRuKBviARg3Y&sz=w234-h308&ats=1430046706859&rm=14cf4be66c115095&zw&atsh=1" style="margin-right: 0px;" width="117" /></a></span></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span style="color: #888888;">Wayne Bailey's book '<b>Sports Trading on Betfair'</b> is available on Amazon.<br /><span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></span><br />
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<span style="color: #888888;"><span style="font-size: small;"><a href="http://www.amazon.co.uk/Sports-Trading-Betfair-Profitable-strategies-ebook/dp/B00VJAAH62/ref=sr_1_1?s=digital-text&ie=UTF8&qid=1428061357&sr=1-1&keywords=sports+trading+on+betfair+wayne+bailey" rel="nofollow" target="_blank"><b>Click here for Kindle version (£9.89)</b></a><br /><a href="https://sites.google.com/site/waynebaileyracing/goog_393319196" target="_blank"><b><br /></b></a></span></span></div>
<span style="color: #888888;">
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-size: small;"><a href="http://www.amazon.co.uk/Sports-Trading-Betfair-Profitable-strategies/dp/1500739391/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1428061416&sr=8-1&keywords=sports+trading+on+betfair+wayne+bailey" rel="nofollow" target="_blank"><b>Click here for Print version (£24.99)</b></a></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #888888;"><span style="font-size: small;"><a href="http://waynebaileyracing.blogspot.ie/2015/04/racing-post-review-of-my-book.html" target="_blank"><b>Click here to read the Racing Post's book review</b></a></span></span></div>
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Wayne Bailey Racinghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06345487660269806703noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4886290627263554877.post-72810362595664430592015-04-22T12:28:00.001+01:002015-08-16T10:01:08.883+01:00Racing Post review of my bookThe Racing Post reviewed my book <a href="http://shop1.racingpost.com/Sports-Trading-On-Betfair-by-Wayne-Bailey-p/sportbet.htm" target="_blank">Sports Trading on Betfair</a> on Sunday and I'm delighted to say that they seemed to like it a lot.<br />
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The full text of the review is below. Don't forget that a free chapter is available to download on <a href="http://www.waynebaileyracing.com/book">www.waynebaileyracing.com/book</a><br />
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<i>The Racing Post, Sunday 19th April 2015</i></div>
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<b>A comprehensive guide for both beginner and expert</b></div>
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Wayne Bailey has been busy. Although still only in his
mid-30s, the Dublin resident has crammed plenty into his years. A librarian by
trade, his is an accredited Betfair trainer (someone endorsed by the company to
show others how the exchange works at events in the UK and Ireland) who
graduated from university with a degree in social sciences and information
studies before completing a diploma in financial trading.<br />
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More recently he had studied psychology and the behaviour of the human mind and
also spent time as a professional gambler, as well as writing a betting column
for the Irish Independent. Somehow he has also found time to pen the wonderful
Sports Trading on Betfair.</div>
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Bailey's background makes him the perfect person to write a book on carving out
a living trading the often frenetic markets on the betting exchanges and he
does not disappoint. </div>
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In 190-odd pages of A4, Bailey manages to cover all you need to know. Starting
with a history of the exchanges and the very basics, the author swiftly moves
on to more complex ideas such as scalp trading and momentum swing trading in a
manner which, refreshingly, somehow manages the neat trick of being accessible
for the novice trader while not patronising those with more experience in the
field.<br />
While the early chapters may cover familiar ground for those who have spent
plenty of hours slavishly watching the movements of markets, they are still
well worth a read because - as the author points out early on - "sometimes
even traders are unaware of how important [a series of] numbers are and the
difference they can make to their bottom line".</div>
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An explanation of crossover points and resistance points, while invaluable to
any budding trader, will also prove to be of use to anybody who is looking at
using the exchanges just to place a straight back bet.<br />
A chapter on the various software packages available to traders is for once
worth a look and not just a glorified advert for the author's favoured tool,
and the sections on financial spread trading actually offer something of
substance as opposed to just being space fillers.</div>
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Laying the field and in-running markets are covered in sufficient detail and
while Bailey can hardly lay claim to reinventing the wheel here, at least he
does it in such a way that he sows the seeds of the concept in the mind of the
reader rather than laying down a list of hard and fast rules. As he is quick to
stress: "Selectivity is the key."</div>
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With an information-solid background, it is no surprise to learn that Bailey is
a meticulous planner - "keeping good record of your trades is
imperative" he says, and even the most slapdash of wannabe traders will
surely come away from this book in agreement with that sentiment.</div>
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Sports trading on Betfair is no get-rich-quick scheme. Nor does it promise to
be.<br />
Whit it is, though, is a comprehensive guide that will prove invaluable to
those wanting to make their first foray into trading while also proving to be a
great reference to those who have already done so. </div>
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This is not the first book on the subject and it probably won't be the last.
But it does collect a wealth of material for which other books and courses have
charged much more. If you can't make back the cover price by using the ideas
found here, then trading on the exchanges is probably not for you. The best
book of its type so far. </div>
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Paul Eacott</div>
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<a href="http://shop1.racingpost.com/Sports-Trading-On-Betfair-by-Wayne-Bailey-p/sportbet.htm" target="_blank"><img alt="http://shop1.racingpost.com/Sports-Trading-On-Betfair-by-Wayne-Bailey-p/sportbet.htm" border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgFwh_Y8uu7x6nwbOOYoiaN0Uf7mdhLa7GqWtQsIhdrWB_3rodK0OOfA_KtHA2tlO8D-Eaa67ViiRZVQqNMHGNnqBt2w1vPw2G-vvQbxfAI_0k8ta34lqZ9n_ehMUKTRTcLUYFbnsPkYfd6/s320/STOB+cover.jpg" width="225" /></a></div>
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Wayne Bailey Racinghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06345487660269806703noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4886290627263554877.post-57272108353791401572015-04-17T17:12:00.001+01:002015-08-16T10:03:26.988+01:00Getting banned by bookmakersSorry folks, time for a little rant.<br />
<br />
Some gamblers think the idea of getting their account closed down or severely limited by a bookmaker is a badge of honour but for me, it simply highlights how unfair this game actually is.<br />
<br />
For those of you that haven't been banned, it's pretty simple. If your account shows a decent profit, it will end up on the bookmaker's radar. Once that happens, they will check you out and monitor your bets. If you continue to win money, they will no longer accept bets from you or else 'limit your account' which means the size of the bets you can place are, say, less than a fiver or tenner on the favourite. <br />
<br />
Some friends of mine which I'd describe as 'casual punters' are often astonished at this. They are the type of punter the bookmaker loves - a tenner here on a horse, a fiver there on a match. Fun punters who are never really up in the long term, bar the odd lucky win. But if you happen to put in a bit of graft and earn a few quid, watch out. <br />
<br />
Bet365 are the latest bookie to knock me back - or Bet €3.65 I should say as that's about as much as I can get on with them these days. Here's an email they sent me a couple of weeks ago:<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiXx-Sh0nARlUOwoNZrb9cDzFFb-ViGSrPfxgdn62Si9BF9EqEZb535BIKYrxnFtCJvsfYE4joSVsgcR78mHo6Cdm2jLqADbEuQmKYGr072DHAaqRRmg45l00LjS6BovZWem4jkdldndKcP/s1600/bet365+knockback+email.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="82" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiXx-Sh0nARlUOwoNZrb9cDzFFb-ViGSrPfxgdn62Si9BF9EqEZb535BIKYrxnFtCJvsfYE4joSVsgcR78mHo6Cdm2jLqADbEuQmKYGr072DHAaqRRmg45l00LjS6BovZWem4jkdldndKcP/s1600/bet365+knockback+email.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
When they say that their services are still available to me, that's actually a joke. They didn't want to say I was banned I guess as it's bad for the image but as an example, here's what happens when I try to back a horse at 50/1:<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiF3_64ykn0Kb_Xi3-A0Bu2J5s6fso8NRGyXQ-C4Mf0wJoB67g2HwIgF-ly8qlKoOhzCyIlC1dfl_aujA5bPHWBXd72XtLSdf4WTw5gyGAJiwVf_CPtl-QQHJDIVKZkyEJShkS97jU5ZvAH/s1600/bet365+50+to+one.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiF3_64ykn0Kb_Xi3-A0Bu2J5s6fso8NRGyXQ-C4Mf0wJoB67g2HwIgF-ly8qlKoOhzCyIlC1dfl_aujA5bPHWBXd72XtLSdf4WTw5gyGAJiwVf_CPtl-QQHJDIVKZkyEJShkS97jU5ZvAH/s1600/bet365+50+to+one.jpg" width="237" /></a></div>
When you put in your stake - say a tenner, the <i>Bet Max</i> box changes it for you. As you can see, Bet365 will let me have<b> a whopping €0.27 on that horse</b>. Any more and it just won't go through.<br />
<br />
Call themselves layers? I say they should grow a pair.<br />
<br />
On a horse priced 5/4, they'll let me have as much as €10.80<br />
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<br />
<br />
I miss the old style layers who used to bet their opinion (rather than following the exchanges) and would take a risk. Not too many of them left sadly. The good ones would use their winning customers to mark their cards so in some parts, such customers were welcome. <br />
<br />
I'm singling out Bet365 here as they are the latest to limit my account but it's across the board as anyone who tries to get more than a hundred quid on anything will tell you. Again, if anyone thinks that this is some kind of boast, it's certainly not. I've had long term losing accounts which were limited after a string of wins over the space of a week. <br />
<br />
Fair enough, bookmakers are businesses and they have to limit risk. I understand all that. But I hate when I hear them try to justify this behaviour by telling us that they simply like to have casual punters which like to have a fun bet. That's their market, they say. Oh really? Well, I know a man who lost over €30K with an Irish bookmaker and never got a tap on the shoulder to tell him to stop. It's pretty much ruined his life. If it were a level playing field, both the big winners plus the big losers would get their stakes limited. <br />
<br />
It's the double standards that annoy me. If they are only interested in fun punters who bet a fiver or a tenner on a Saturday, that's fair enough but that's not the case. They also want the poor ba***rd that loses his wages every week and goes home to the missus empty handed. In short, they want it both ways and they have it both ways. <br />
<br />
By the way, the total I won with Bet365 was in the region of €950 (over the space of one month). While just under a grand is a lot of money in any man's language, it's hardly JP McManus stuff now is it?<br />
<br />
As I say, it's not just Bet365, they all do it. I've had accounts shut down over a few hundred euro, it's not always big money. And yet these same firms go and complain that the exchanges have ruined the industry! A funny bunch, the lot of them.<br />
<br />
Anyway, life's too short to complain too much so I'll leave it there. Have a good weekend everyone.<br />
<br />
Wayne<br />
<br />
*** <br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman,serif;">Wayne's book <i>Sports Trading on Betfair</i> is out now:</span></span></div>
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<a href="http://shop1.racingpost.com/Sports-Trading-On-Betfair-by-Wayne-Bailey-p/sportbet.htm" target="_blank"><img alt="Sports Trading on Betfair" border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEitPQON63j9TBsM9_kddY96DvdM3-Vc_SSA1RrU6yySroowV9y3J1Qlim_krrFw-ib1PygMGFRK_x3-0I4dMYREXI9jFdQ1KL7gPKFMvbdYXCOyFB1GawcpGzfAgjwQOM44jQup4klY-p_B/s320/STOB+cover.jpg" width="225" /></a></div>
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<br />Wayne Bailey Racinghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06345487660269806703noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4886290627263554877.post-74927520324879171982015-04-11T10:52:00.000+01:002015-04-11T10:52:37.442+01:00Aintree Grand National 2015Now, keep in mind that I haven't picked the Grand National winner since
1990 when I won £8 backing Mr Frisk at 16/1 with my lucky millennium
fifty pence. Minus the price of a pint for me da, God rest him, who
placed the bet for me on the Kim Bailey trained gelding. Anyway, as
Johnny Logan would say, what's another year? Here goes:<br />
<br />
<br />
<a href="http://www.independent.ie/sport/horse-racing/mccoy-win-would-be-a-dream-but-call-on-soll-for-a-value-bet-31133896.html">http://www.independent.ie/sport/horse-racing/mccoy-win-would-be-a-dream-but-call-on-soll-for-a-value-bet-31133896.html</a><br />
<br />
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<br />
<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: xx-small;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman,serif;">Wayne's book <i>Sports Trading on Betfair</i> is out now:</span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
</div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
</div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
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<span style="font-family: Times New Roman, serif; font-size: xx-small;"><a href="http://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/product/1500739391/ref=as_li_tl?ie=UTF8&camp=1634&creative=19450&creativeASIN=1500739391&linkCode=as2&tag=golturtra-21&linkId=DQ4X3763Y5AW4H5F" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://ws-eu.amazon-adsystem.com/widgets/q?_encoding=UTF8&ASIN=1500739391&Format=_SL250_&ID=AsinImage&MarketPlace=GB&ServiceVersion=20070822&WS=1&tag=golturtra-21" /></a></span></div>
Wayne Bailey Racinghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06345487660269806703noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4886290627263554877.post-36484375672500947102015-04-03T09:33:00.000+01:002015-04-03T12:43:58.103+01:00Sports Trading on Betfair (book): Kindle version now availableGood morning folks,<br />
<br />
I'm pleased to announce that my book 'Sports Trading on Betfair' is now available on Kindle as well as in physical format.<br />
<a href="http://www.amazon.co.uk/Sports-Trading-Betfair-Profitable-strategies-ebook/dp/B00VJAAH62/ref=sr_1_1?s=digital-text&ie=UTF8&qid=1428061357&sr=1-1&keywords=sports+trading+on+betfair+wayne+bailey"><br /></a>
<a href="http://www.amazon.co.uk/Sports-Trading-Betfair-Profitable-strategies-ebook/dp/B00VJAAH62/ref=sr_1_1?s=digital-text&ie=UTF8&qid=1428061357&sr=1-1&keywords=sports+trading+on+betfair+wayne+bailey">Kindle version</a><br />
<a href="http://www.amazon.co.uk/Sports-Trading-Betfair-Profitable-strategies/dp/1500739391/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1428061416&sr=8-1&keywords=sports+trading+on+betfair+wayne+bailey"><br /></a>
<a href="http://www.amazon.co.uk/Sports-Trading-Betfair-Profitable-strategies/dp/1500739391/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1428061416&sr=8-1&keywords=sports+trading+on+betfair+wayne+bailey">Print version</a><br />
<br />
Don't forget, there is a free chapter on my website available to give you a flavour of the book:<br />
<br />
<a href="http://www.waynebaileyracing.com/book">www.waynebaileyracing.com/book</a><br />
<br />
Happy Easter to all readers.<br />
<br />
WayneWayne Bailey Racinghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06345487660269806703noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4886290627263554877.post-21603066892291808472015-03-14T08:03:00.002+00:002015-03-14T08:03:22.700+00:00Lingfield Winter Derby<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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WITH hoof marks still fresh in the ground at Prestbury Park
after a hugely enjoyable Cheltenham Festival, it's a little hard to think about
flat racing, especially with Aintree and Punchestown still to come. But the
Winter Derby (3.05) Lingfield is the first Group race of the British season and
it's a signal that we must, as my sat nav would say, recalibrate. The flat
season proper kicks off with the Lincoln at Doncaster in just a couple of weeks
so the Winter Derby acts as a warm up act as we try to take our mind off
hurdles and fences. Regular readers will have had to put up with me moaning
about how I lost a fortune backing Jeremy Noseda's Grandeur in the trial for
this last month, although I also said I'd consider backing him again. But
having checked the betting, I've decided to oppose him this afternoon as I was
looking for something a bit bigger than 5/1. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Of course if he goes on to win, I'll be left
pulling my hair out in frustrating - but when I priced up this race when the
declarations came out, I had him down as a 7/1. In the long term, I have to
trust that such underpriced bets are best avoided. The one that beat him in the
Derby Trial was <b>Grendisar</b>, and Marco Botti's five-year-old gets the nod to
complete the double today priced in the region of 4/1. Botti has said that he
came out of his last race in great form and he comes here with every chance - although
it must be said that he's a quirky sort and he usually idles mid-race. What he
really needs is a strong gallop and a somewhat aggressive ride so I hope to see
jockey Martin Harley stay up with the pace and give him a shake as soon as he
starts to relax. That Winter Derby trial was his third Listed win in the space
of a year and he hasn't finished outside the top two in nine races and his
record on the all-weather is certainly impressive. All considered, 4/1 is a
fair price. Along with Grandeur, Tryster has a good chance of troubling the
selection. Charlie Appleby's gelding has beaten some useful sorts to complete a
hat-trick of wins in all-weather handicaps and the assessor always seems to be
one step behind. He's progressive, that's for sure, although this will be the
biggest test he's faced in some time. </div>
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<span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman,serif;">Wayne's book <i>Sports Trading on Betfair</i> is out now:</span></span></div>
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Wayne Bailey Racinghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06345487660269806703noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4886290627263554877.post-13539585463659580692015-03-13T09:30:00.002+00:002015-03-13T09:30:38.207+00:00Cheltenham Festival day four (Friday)Nothing spectacular yesterday but a profitable day overall with a 9/1 winner. Here's today's race-by-race guide which I wrote for the Irish Independent. <br />
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1.30
<br />
Peace And Co will be popular in the betting but the trial he won for
this race was weak and the pace was very slow. At 9/4, he’s too short
for me. Preference is for BELTOR at 6/1. A son of Derby winner
Authorized, he won a Grade Two at Kempton on soft ground.
<br />
2.05
<br />
A tricky race to decipher, SORT IT OUT gets the each-way vote at 14/1 or thereabouts. Edward Harty’s
gelding flew home at my local track Leopardstown in an 18-runner
handicap last month and is taken to progress even further.
<br />
2.40
<br />
The Nick Williams-trained TEA FOR TWO was beaten in a novices’ hurdle at Ascot last time but is best
judged on his previous handicap win at Kempton. Priced as high as 25/1,
he’s another one to take each-way.
<br />
3.20
<br />
Both Holywell and Djakadam are ones for the shortlist but I reckon
<br />
SILVINIACO CONTI’s time has come. A faller in this in 2013 and
fourth in a messy renewal last year, he has perked up in his latest two
races wearing cheekpieces. He’s definitely the one they have to beat.
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4.0
<br />
Just two 11-year-olds have won this race since 1987 so older
horses are usually best avoided. One of the best hunter chasers around,
the Warren Greatrex-trained PAINT THE CLOUDS stands out as a horse which
is laid out for this.
<br />
4.40
<br />
Willie Mullins has had a great festival and a chance is taken on
<br />
MCKINLEY to add to his tally. He was disappointing in a Grade One
at Leopardstown last time but the handicapper has given him a break here
and he’s entitled to go well off a rating of 136. Should be
thereabouts.
<br />
5.15
<br />
The final race has been renamed this year in honour of the soon to
be retired Tony McCoy, and his mount Ned Buntline is bound to be
popular. But he’s a little short at 5/1 and BELLENOS makes appeal at a
decent each-way price. I’ll also keep TURN OVER SIVOLA onside in the
place-only markets on the exchanges.
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<span style="font-size: small;">
</span>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman,serif;">Wayne's book <i>Sports Trading on Betfair</i> is out now:</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times New Roman, serif; font-size: xx-small;"><a href="http://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/product/1500739391/ref=as_li_tl?ie=UTF8&camp=1634&creative=19450&creativeASIN=1500739391&linkCode=as2&tag=golturtra-21&linkId=DQ4X3763Y5AW4H5F" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://ws-eu.amazon-adsystem.com/widgets/q?_encoding=UTF8&ASIN=1500739391&Format=_SL250_&ID=AsinImage&MarketPlace=GB&ServiceVersion=20070822&WS=1&tag=golturtra-21" /></a></span></div>
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<a href="https://www.blogger.com/null" name="anchor1"></a>Wayne Bailey Racinghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06345487660269806703noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4886290627263554877.post-19405452032268326302015-03-12T07:50:00.001+00:002015-03-12T07:53:31.767+00:00Cheltenham Festival day three (Thursday)Another great day yesterday with a 25/1 winner and a 9/2 winner, although I wish I had more on the big priced one. Never happy are we? !<br />
<br />
Anyway, we push on with day three. Here's today's race by race guide for the <a href="http://www.independent.ie/sport/horse-racing/">Irish Independent.</a> Best of luck with your Festival bets.<br />
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1.30
<br />
Willie Mullins’ Vautour (15/8) will be all the rage for this but might be a bit on the short side so PTIT
<br />
ZIG is nominated at 100/30. Paul Nicholls’ gelding normally jumps very
soundly but made a rare error and fell in the Ascot Chase. Worth another
chance at a fair price.
<br />
2.05
<br />
Just one horse aged five (Pragada in 1988) has won the Pertemps Network
Final since it was established in 1974 so Dawalan and Aqalim have their
work cut out. At 7/1, CALL THE COPS gets the vote following a recent
three-mile victory at Doncaster. Second in the 2013 Champion Bumper,
Regal Encore is the Danger Horse under champion jockey Tony McCoy.
<br />
2.40
<br />
A good race for punters, just one Ryanair Chase winner in the last
ten years was priced in double figures. Ma Filleule is popular in the
betting but her recent Grade One second place was weak and preference is
for DON COSSACK, which is shaping up to be a seriously talented chaser.
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3.20
<br />
Both Zarkandar and Saphir Du Rheu are ones for the shortlist but
don’t overlook DEDIGOUT each-way from Tony Martin’s yard. He’s in great
form and will have no problem with the distance. He prefers the ground a
little soft so a bit of rain overnight would help. Overpriced at 20/1.
<br />
4.00
<br />
One of the hardest races of the Festival for punters, Salut Flo
(2012) was the only winner priced in single figures in the latest 14
renewals. I won’t spend too much on this but I’ll have a small each-way
punt on DE BOITRON (50/1), which is said to have perked up following a
breathing operation.
<br />
4.40
<br />
A tricky handicap for amateur riders, Sue Smith’s VINTAGE STAR
looks generous at 16/1. He likes to race prominently so his jockey is
best advised to get up ahead of the traffic early. He looked tired when
third in the Grade Two Peter Marsh Chase but he’s had a nice break and
may bounce back here.<br />
<br />
<div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Times New Roman, serif; font-size: xx-small;">Wayne's book <i>Sports Trading on Betfair</i> is out now:</span></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Times New Roman, serif; font-size: xx-small;"> </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times New Roman, serif; font-size: xx-small;"><a href="http://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/product/1500739391/ref=as_li_tl?ie=UTF8&camp=1634&creative=19450&creativeASIN=1500739391&linkCode=as2&tag=golturtra-21&linkId=DQ4X3763Y5AW4H5F" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://ws-eu.amazon-adsystem.com/widgets/q?_encoding=UTF8&ASIN=1500739391&Format=_SL250_&ID=AsinImage&MarketPlace=GB&ServiceVersion=20070822&WS=1&tag=golturtra-21" /></a></span></div>
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Wayne Bailey Racinghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06345487660269806703noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4886290627263554877.post-43938050012284533402015-03-11T07:22:00.000+00:002015-03-11T07:25:46.803+00:00Cheltenham Festival day two (Wednesday)Morning folks, a cracker of a day yesterday with two 8/1 winners and an 11/1 winner. Hope it's not all downhill from here!<br />
<br />
Here's today's race-by-race guide for the <a href="http://www.independent.ie/sport/horse-racing/">Irish Independent:</a><br />
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1.30
<br />
Willie Mullins’ yard provides the market leaders in Nichols Canyon and
OUTLANDER and it’s the last named of the two which makes the most appeal
at 7/2. A fivetime winner, he progressed enough to turn the tables on
Martello Tower in a Grade Two at Leopardstown. Keep Vyta Du Roc onside
in the place-only markets at 2/1.
<br />
2.05
<br />
Six-year-olds often struggle in the RSA Chase so today’s favourite Don
Poli is opposed for that reason. David Pipe’s KINGS PALACE looks a good
alternative at carpet (3/1) and the sevenyear-old made an impressive
recovery to put Vivaldi Collonges to the sword at Newbury last time,
having landed badly three fences out.
<br />
2.40
<br />
Favourites have a poor record in the Coral Cup so don’t give the
bookmakers too much money here. MIJHAAR is a big outsider at 33/1 but
gets a token each-way vote to get back to form and improve on a
disappointing showing in a graded handicap at Sandown.
<br />
3.20
</div>
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The 2013 winner Sprinter Sacre was not himself when losing his
comeback race at Ascot but connections are keeping the faith in the
horse. However, SIRE DE GRUGY can take advantage of any weakness and win
this for the second year running for Gary and Jamie Moore.
<br />
4.00
<br />
Enda Bolger has a good record in this race, although he’s drawn a
blank since 2009. The race’s most successful jockey, Nina Carberry,
teams up with QUANTITATIVEEASING which has a good chance now back over
his preferred distance.
<br />
4.40
<br />
Paul Nicholls’ QUALANDO gets a tentative vote at 14/1 following a
recent novices’ hurdle success at Exeter but it’s not a race for heavy
punting.
<br />
5.15
<br />
Willie Mullins’ horses are bound to be popular given his record in
this race but a chance is taken today on David Pipe’s MOON RACER at 7/1
which showed very smart form to win two bumpers in 2014.<br />
<br />
<br />
<div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Times New Roman, serif; font-size: xx-small;">Wayne's book <i>Sports Trading on Betfair</i> is out now:</span></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Times New Roman, serif; font-size: xx-small;"> </span></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
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<span style="font-family: Times New Roman, serif; font-size: xx-small;"><a href="http://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/product/1500739391/ref=as_li_tl?ie=UTF8&camp=1634&creative=19450&creativeASIN=1500739391&linkCode=as2&tag=golturtra-21&linkId=DQ4X3763Y5AW4H5F" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://ws-eu.amazon-adsystem.com/widgets/q?_encoding=UTF8&ASIN=1500739391&Format=_SL250_&ID=AsinImage&MarketPlace=GB&ServiceVersion=20070822&WS=1&tag=golturtra-21" /></a></span></div>
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<a href="https://www.blogger.com/null" name="anchor1"></a>Wayne Bailey Racinghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06345487660269806703noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4886290627263554877.post-80992798990043354062015-03-10T10:41:00.000+00:002015-03-10T10:41:08.349+00:00Cheltenham Festival day one (Tuesday)Hi folks, here's my race-by-race guide for day one which I've wrote for the Irish Independent:<br />
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<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
1.30</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
L'ami Serge has won all three races for Nicky Henderson and
beat the talented Jolly's Cracked It by fourteen lengths in the Tolworth Hurdle
at Sandown. The form from his Newbury Handicap has worked out well with a
couple of those going on to win since, and 3/1 looks generous enough
considering he's only 2lbs behind Douvan on official ratings. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
2.05</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
This should be a straight-forward penalty kick for Un De
Sceaux although at 8/13, it's not worth the risk. He beat Clarcam with ease in
a Grade One at Leopardstown last time but Vibrato Valtat has plenty of talent
too and has already won a number of Graded races for Paul Nicholls. At 11/10,
Vibrato Valtat is a confident selection in the place only markets on the
exchanges. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
2.40</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
I don't like betting big in the handicaps but The Druids
Nephew might be the one to side with now back over fences. He was out of his
depth in the Cleeve Hurdle last time but he's smarter over fences and this race
has been his target for some time.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
3.20</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Faugheen is clearly something special which you have to be
to win a Champion Hurdle but he's never faced rivals of this calibre and his
price is a little short. Last year's winner Jezki is a fair price at 4/1 and
can get the better of regular sparring partner Hurricane Fly.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
4.00</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Annie Power is far superior to any of these but that's
reflected in her short price. She hasn't raced since May which is a slight
concern. As an each-way alternative, consider Carole's Spirit, a tough enough
sort that never gives up.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
4.40</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Gordon Elliott's Cause Of Causes certainly wasn't disgraced
when second in the Kim Muir last year and gets a tentative vote at 8/1 to
trouble the likely favourite Very Wood. Alan King's Sego Success will love the
trip and won't be too far off.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
5.15</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
A tricky handicap in which stakes should be kept to a
minimum. Generous Ransom is a progressive sort and deserves his place at the
head of the market but Irish Cavalier makes more appeal each-way at 12/1.
Rebecca Curtis' gelding was second to the favourite in a handicap here in
January but first time cheekpieces may just sharpen her up.</div>
Wayne Bailey Racinghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06345487660269806703noreply@blogger.com0