I've always wondered who the headcases are that lay horses in the place markets at large prices.
Is there money to be made? Possibly, so I decided to join them and see.
I've back tested a ratings system I've created which lays horses in the place markets if they meet certain criteria - most horses are large prices although I do have a cut-off at 100.0.
Basically, the ratings system was created by myself and the rules are that the bottom quarter of the list of rated horses are layed in the place market. In other words, the worst horses (according to my ratings) are layed. The results are very impressive to the minimum €2 stake, producing a grand or two per year (assuming commission is 5%):
Of course, backtesting is one thing and it's always different in real life so I've been doing this in a separate account for the last seven days and already, it's produced over €120 in profit:
That looks great on paper but I suppose it masks the risks. I've had two big losers during that period (one at 55.0 and one at 22.0) but it's kept in profit. However, had I hit a 200.0 shot, I'd be well in the red now. [EDIT: I mean to say a €200 loser which is the 100.0 cut off at the minimum €2 stake).
The big losers will come eventually and it's really a matter of hoping that an extraordinary amount of them don't come along (which is possible but unlikely). When I hit a big loser, it would be nice to have built up a bank to cover it but we'll see how it goes.
It requires plenty of bottle to lay at those prices but so far, so good. I'm not counting my chickens as I know that the worst case scenario is always possible but I'll keep going for a bit and report on progress.
Wayne's book Sports Trading on Betfair is out now: