Friday's bets, Notre Dame fighting Irish

Another good day yesterday with Heezagray winning at 3/1 on the machine. It's been a pretty good week on the horses, it must be said. I've earned a couple of ton from the GGs this week which is great as I've a few plans for the weekend and I was getting a bit skint.

I've two form study bets for today - here's Timeform's comments:

3.25 Sandown - Rock God
Shirocco half-brother to French 9f/1¼m winner Faraway Run. Showed plenty when a promising second in 7f maiden at Goodwood early this month, quickening to lead briefly. Sets the standard here.

4.50 Killarney - Everything Zain
Modest maiden on Flat who fit from that sphere took well to hurdling when second to ready winner Top Man Michael in a 2m maiden at Roscommon earlier this month. Looks good to go one better here.

With regard to the financial trading, I woke up to see some beautiful blue screens today:

It's always an amazing feeling when each of your trades are in the black (or blue in this case!) so I'm enjoying it while it lasts. Fair enough, it's only €70 and there's no guarantee that the markets won't reverse - but if you add that to the €35 banked on oil already this week, plus a couple of ton in profit from the horses, it's been a nice week overall. The stakes are small on each trade (just 20c) but it just goes to show how you can get good leverage from your money.


Lot's of Americans in town this weekend for the Notre Dame v Navy game, including some nice cheerleaders!  I don't know much about American Football but there's a good atmosphere and I'd be concious of the great rivalry, and of course, the strong Irish Notre Dame links.  A mate of mine actually has the Fighting Irish leprechaun tattooed on his arm which looks pretty cool.  My brother, who runs an Irish bagpiper for hire webiste, has been asked to play a few tunes for a group of them on the way down Lansdowne Road which could be a bit of craic.

Off now to finish off tomorrow's Irish Independent article. Best of luck with your trading and betting.

Thursday, horse racing tips & trading

Another good day yesterday with a couple of nice prices winners - had some NRs too.

In the form study, I only have one today:

5.10 Font - Alfraamsey
Won 3 times in juvenile hurdles last season. None too fluent but stuck to task behind Hes Our Lad on recent chase debut and no surprise to see him go one place better here.

In the handicaps, Heezagrey (7.10 Font) looks like a good bet as he's unpenalised for Monday's win over timber.


With regard to the financial trading, my Brent Crude Oil hit its trailing stop and got me out for a profit of €34.20.

Quite happy with that and it has put the overall bank for this particular strategy into profit. I've still five trades running and they show a profit at the moment of around a pony (€25).

Wednesday's betting tips

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A great day yesterday with three winners on the horses - two of them were odds-on but I made a nice few bob out of Flying Doctor which was available around the 3/1 mark on the machine. The gelding actually hit 37/1 in-running on Betfair and I thought his goose was cooked but he eventually won. I'm thinking of going to the Dublin v Mayo all-Ireland semi-final this weekend so it was nice to earn a couple of quid to help pay for that.

I've been up since 6am studying the form and have found a few I think are worth a couple of quid. I've four on the form study, and two handicappers. Here's Timeform's comments.

7.50 Kempton - Moment Of Time
Placed in listed company at 3 yrs, and pick of these on her best efforts, but only third in a C&D maiden last time, and while not beaten far there, is clearly not bombproof. Tongue tied now.

4.55 Killarney - Orgilgo Bay
Will do better over further but sets strong standard on his 2 runner-up efforts, sticking to task when going down by ¾ length in Tipperary listed race last time (strong form). The one to beat.


7.10 Wolverhampton - Light From Mars
Won 2011 Newbury Spring Cup for David Nicholls. Not the force of old, though has shown a bit more on back of a break for new yard over C&D last twice. Shortlisted now in a seller.


2.50 Worcester - Royale's CharterChased home smart rivals on first 2 starts over fences. Still going well when unseating/falling in couple of competitive handicaps in January and strong claims on return to action.


Elsewhere in the handicaps, I like the look of First Morning (3.50 Worc) and Simarian (4.50 Worc), both of which look a pound or two ahead of the handicapper with penalties.


No new spread trades on the financials but my open trades are still currently in profit to the tune of fifty odd quid:

These are medium term trades based on a strategy I read in the excellent book Mastering the Trade
I don't want to sound like an ad for that book but it has helped me greatly and is well worth a read.


All trades in this strategy have stop losses, so I should just leave them be and check how they are doing each morning - but it's sooooo tempting to log in and check on them throughout the day. At one stage yesterday, they were down to about €6 in profit so it kinda goes to show what sort of swings we are dealing with here. Again, I shouldn't take too much notice of the daily ups and downs but I'm only human and it's impossible not to wonder how they are doing.



So far, my gold trade is a loser - I'd be a bit disappointed if I get stopped out for a loss on that one as gold is something I've done very well out of over the past couple of years. Very happy with the Brent Crude Oil sell though - with petrol prices going through the roof, I think we'll all be happy to see prices fall.

 As regards fitness, I went for a run yesterday (about 4K). I've quite a lot on this week but I hope to get out for something similar tomorrow. I'm still planning on doing the Dublin Marathon in late October but I must actually go and register this week which will make it certain.




Best of luck with whatever you do today.

Tuesday's bets, trading silver and gold, Apple shares

I've a couple of bets on the form study today, here's what Timeform have to say about each:

4.55 Ballinrobe - Missunited
Dual bumper winner who made a successful hurdling debut at Listowel in June. Encouraging second to Oilily in maiden at Leopardstown on Flat debut and reproduction of that should be enough.

7.10 Sedge - Dream Risk
Not been with current yard long and ran out easy winner of 2m Worcester conditionals handicap last week. No penalty to carry here and obvious claims.

Earlier, Flying Doctor (4.40 Sedgefield) looks fairly well in under a penalty and could be worth a couple of shekels.

***

I woke up this morning to see my open trades in profit to the tune of €52.40:

This is good news as it was showing a loss the other day. Both the S&P500 trade and the CAS/USD trade hit their trailing stop loss and got me out at break-even on each. As you can see, the Brent Crude Oil is performing particularly well and I'm hoping it drops further so I can move my stop loss down to a certain win situation.

This morning, I've sold gold (something I rarely do!) and also sold silver at 1660.10 and 30.65 respectively. It feels a bit strange selling gold as it's something I'm bullish on in the long term. It's also something I've made money from buying in the past but I kinda feel this particular rise has ran out of steam for now.

Of course, things may change later this week at Jackson Hole (a US financial summit) but for now, I'm a little bearish on metals.

Apple Shares hit another all-time high yesterday and are currently around $675. As mentioned before, I haven't been involved but the rise has been unreal. I still worry about the lack of new products but Samsung took a real blow. When it will run out of steam is anyone's guess.

Apple's two-year price chart from Yahoo finance:

***

With regard to the marathon training, I haven't got too much done recently as I've been busy with other stuff. I'm going to go for a 4K run this morning but when the schools are back next week, I'll have a better routine and should be running again 3-4 times per week.

Best of luck with your betting and trading today.

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Trading Brent Crude Oil

It's the last week of summer so we might have a quiet few days before it all kicks off again. My financial trades have gone slightly into profit and I've added to my positions by selling Brent Crude Oil at $114.81 a barrel.

In the racing, I've one form study bet from Dundalk - here's Timeform's comment:

9.15 Dundalk - Shu Lewis
Landed a hat-trick of bumpers last year, and showed plenty on last month's Flat debut at Down Royal. Well capable of winning a race like this. First go on polytrack.

Other ones to watch today are Neighbourly (3.40 DownP) and Tasheba (2.15 Bang), which could be a couple of pounds ahead of the handicapper.

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Excellent book: Quiet, by Susan Cain

This aint related to betting or trading in any way but I'm just about finished a book which I thought was excellent so I thought I'd recommend it here.

Despite the fact that I blog regularly and write for a bestselling newspaper, I'm actually a quiet person at heart and wouldn't really be described as 'outgoing'.

It's not that I don't like having a laugh or having a bit of fun - I do. But I'm also happy in my own company too and don't feel the need to be the centre of attention or always express myself.

People like me are often described as introverts, and being introverted is usually seen as a negative in today's world - but with so many noisy people out there blabbing about nothing, sometimes it's nice that people are quiet and I usually value the opinions of other people who don't just talk for the sake of it.

Quiet: The power of introverts in a world that can't stop talking

This book looks at this issue and so much of it rang true. Cain is an excellent writer and the book was very entertaining. Well worth a read if you are one of those quiet people like me - but even my extroverted wife found it very interesting too:


Our lives are driven by a fact that most of us can't name and don't understand. It defines who our friends and lovers are, which careers we choose, and whether we blush when we're embarrassed.
That fact is whether we're an introvert or an extrovert.
The introvert/extrovert divide is the most fundamental dimension of personality. And at least a third of us are on the introverted side. Some of the world's most talented people are introverts. Without them we wouldn't have the Apple computer, the theory of relativity and Van Gogh's sunflowers.
Yet extroverts have taken over. Shyness, sensitivity and seriousness are often seen as being negative. Introverts feel reproached for being the way they are.
In Quiet, Susan Cain shows how the brain chemistry of introverts and extroverts differs, and how society misunderstands and undervalues introverts. She gives introverts the tools to better understand themselves and take full advantage of their strengths.
Passionately argued, superbly researched, and filled with real stories, Quiet will permanently change how we see introverts - and how you see yourself.

Blue to red, Apple and Samsung

Well, the trading gods must have read my post yesterday and thought I was being boastful as my winning trades have turned around and are now break-even (well, -20c actually!). It's always a rollercoaster in this game and at one stage, my trades were in profit to the tune of three score and five yesterday (€65). As mentioned though, this is based on technical analysis and has clear entry and exit points (that haven't yet been hit).  I guess that's one of the downsides of TA - I left some money on the table yesterday. So my blue (profitable) trades have gone red (loss). But sure we will see what Monday brings anyway.

Current positions:

By the way, I'm sure everyone has heard about Apple winning its patent case against Samsung:

http://www.rte.ie/news/2012/0825/apple-samsung-trial.html

I've been keeping an eye on Apple shares on this blog for some time, just out of interest really and I haven't bought or sold any.  In the pre-markets, the shares are up a couple of percent on the news so it will be interesting to see what happens on Monday when the stock markets open again.

In the racing, I've a couple of the form study bets today:

2.15 Goodwood: Sky Lantern
8.00 Redcar: Aubrietia


I also have an article in the Irish Independent with a few selections:

http://www.independent.ie/sport/horse-racing/motivado-can-show-rivals-the-way-home-3209770.html

Best of luck with your betting today.

Beautiful blue, technical analysis trading

Woke up this morning to see all yesterday's trades in profit. This rarely happens and even though I had kept stakes to a minimum, it's a nice profit of €50.80 overall. Normally, profit is coloured green and losses are coloured red but in my spread trading account, profit is in blue for some reason:

Of course, I shouldn't count my chickens before they've hatched. Any sort of news in the markets could send them shooting the other way - but at the moment, the current profit means that the strategy I'm trying is working so far (although I've still a long way to go before I try it with serious money). The strategy, which tries to identify the end of a short-term trend, is based purely on technical analysis - this is both good and bad. The bad side is that the fundamentals are ignored and the entry and exit is only based on charts but on the plus side, it helps you ignore the noise and there's no grey areas about when to open and close your trades.

In the racing, a horrible run of eight losers in-a-row on the form study bets came to an end yesterday. I'm still a little bit in profit but the bank has been dented. One for today:

2.45 Ffos Las -  Gold Show
Made the frame 8 times in various company up to 1¼m. More exposed than most, but ran creditably when 1¼ lengths second over C&D last time, and sure to be thereabouts once more.

In the handicaps, Khan Tengri looks a few pounds better than its racing weight in the 5.55 at Kilbeggan.

Frankel & FTSE, DOW and FOREX trading

I mentioned a strategy some time back which I read in Mastering the Tradethat basically looks for the end of a short term bull or bear run. It has pointed to some trades today and I've sold the FTSE, bought the USD/CAD and sold the DOW.  Yesterday's sell on the S&P500 is still open.

These trades generally last only a few days so I'll report back with my P&L soon. 


In the racing, wasn't Frankel just amazing?

Can you imagine if he went for the Arc? I doubt it would happen but after yesterday's race, I'm strongly thinking of going to Ascot in October to see his last race. He's not just the horse of a generation, he's the horse of a century and it would be a shame if I didn't make the effort to go see him.

With the form study bets, I've just one for today but it's a really short price unfortunately, probably about 1/2. Here's Timeform's commets:

5.15 Tipp - Line Drummer
Derby entry who has shown fair form on both starts to date, still green when third to Thunder Mountain at Galway last time, hanging badly left. Looks the one to beat.


Elsewhere, Amazing Valour looks worthy of a punt in the 3.50 at Ffos Las. He won at Southwell the other day so carries a penalty but I reckon he's still a few pounds ahead of the handicapper.

Dell shares, S&P500 trading, Frankel at York

A few weeks ago, I mentioned how poorly Dell were doing in recent times and yesterday, they released more bad results. That saw them drop around 4%.  Unless they pull something out of the bag, you can't help but be bearish about their future. At one time, they had a huge media presence but now you hardly ever hear about them. The price of shares has dropped to about a quarter of what it was in 2005. I was in college back then and everyone had a dell, including myself. But they somehow haven't kept up and the fall-off in PC sales has hit them bad. With all the tablets and mobiles moving on in strides, it's hard to see where a tradional PC maker will go from here.

Dell one-year chart:

The Standard and Poor's 500 Index reached a four-year high yesterday, hitting over 1422 at one stage and as I type, we are around the 1410 mark. Byron Wein reckons it will hit 1500 by the end of the year but I'm not as bullish as that and still think the US economy is shaky. But let's be honest - none of us know really how it will go and these are strange times. If I catch a ride on a trend along the way (up or down!), I'll be happy enough.


EDIT 8.50am: I've just decided to take a chance that we are coming to the end of a little bull run and I've sold the S&P at 1410.5

By the way, Nick Leeson's article is another good one this week and he talks about how prison might be a good thing for some of our bankers - worth a read:


http://www.thejournal.ie/readme/nick-leeson-jail-time-lessons-561158-Aug2012/

In the racing, I've no bets for today but I'm looking forward to the world's greatest racehorse, Frankel, make his penultimate appearance at York this afternoon. I hope his trainer Sir Henry Cecil can make it to the course - he is getting treatment for cancer at the moment and has been a bit weak. It's great to see him continue training and get a horse like Frankel. In the betting, the colt is trading around 1/7 and it is the first time he has raced beyond a mile. The O'Brien horses will probably try stretch things out and make it a stamina test but Frankel has some 17lbs in hand on Timeform ratings and should once again confirm why he is considered the best flat horse of all time.

Frankel at Ascot:

George Soros trading, Manchester United shares, Apple shares

A couple of interesting stories on some shares I've been keeping an eye on: MANU and APPLE

Firstly, Manchester United. It appears that George Soros, the legendary Hungarian-born trader that made over a billion when his fund 'broke the bank of England' on black Wednesday, has bought shares in the football club. 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-19328750

I suggested recently that they could be a sell and the price has dropped down to around $13 but it will be interesting to see if the Soros news will give it a bit of a lift. On the pitch, they weren't great last night to be honest!

Elsewhere, APPLE has become the largest company in trading history. I'm glad I chickened out a while back and didn't sell - I would have got burned fairly bad and I think I dodged a bullet by being cautious. The price rise has been fairly dramatic recently:

While they haven't yet announced it, it seems they have new iPhones and iPads on the way. While I'm still too much of a chicken to make a call on the price, I'll continue to watch with interest. 

http://www.cnbc.com/id/48731168

No luck yesterday in the racing - I've just one bet for today. She has fairly strong claims but I reckon I'll be lucky to get even-money:

5.10 Sligo - Dorothy Parker
Filly by Mujadil who cost just €5,000 as a yearling. Couple of promising efforts over 5f at Curragh earlier this year and looks to hold strong claims provided not ring rusty after 4 months off since.

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Monday

Couldn't find any trades on the financial markets this morning - I always find Monday mornings a bit tricky though as the market seeks direction.

A couple of bets on the horses for today:

4.10 Strat - Ahyaknowyerself
Scored twice over hurdles this summer (including here). In the process of showing improved form when falling 2 out at Newton Abbot (19f) recently and major player if none the worse for that.

8.20 Kemp - Grilletto
From successful North American family. Built on debut effort when third in a 7f maiden here last time. Doesn't set a particularly high standard but still merits respect.

Buying and selling facebook shares

Had a great couple of days off and I enjoyed my cousin's wedding immensely. It's nice to get away from trading and betting now and again and re-charge the batteries. Having said that, I'm spending time reading the news today and catching up with what I missed.

Facebook shares have been particularly interesting this week with some staff selling their shares now that the time period that prohibits them selling their shares has come to an end:

Facebook shares this week:

Weeks ago, I suggested that Facebook was a sell and the shares are now down around $19, roughly half of what they were once worth. Unfortunately, I didn't really give it a lash with serious money - not quite sure why but hey ho.

 I've no open trades on Facebook at the moment and I'm kinda unsure as to where they will go next. On the one hand, the trend is definitely down and there's no real reason to suggest a reversal - although some recent selling by staff (and other traders trying to catch that wave) has blurred the picture somewhat so I think they are best left alone for a week or two at least.

The fundamentals haven't really changed and in my opinion they were not too strong in the first place; where Facebook will continue to make money from other than ads remains to be seen.

Having said all that, it's a site that has become a big part of a lot of people's lives and that's gotta be worth something I guess. Anyway, we'll continue to watch this with interest.

Elsewhere, I've been working on some strategies which I read in

Big Money, Little Effort by Mark Shipman

Basically, the book talks about moving average systems and so far I've had some success - even though I've only been testing with pennies.  I may post more on these strategies in the future but for now, I want to do some more testing. 

***

On the racing front, I've three bets for Saturday. Here's what Timeform have to say about each:

4.40 Chester - Bountiful Girl
Second career win when cashing in off sliding mark at Carlisle (9f) in July. Good second at Beverley (1¼m) in mid-week, and major player on these terms if this doesn't come too quickly.

1.40 Newmarket - Strictly Silca
Has some fair form to her name, including second to Toronado in 7f Ascot listed event last month. Does to bounce back from a slightly disappointing effort in maiden company last time, though.

1.45 Ripon - Bachotheque
Been unlucky not to win a maiden so far, finding frame on first 3 outings. Possibly found race coming too soon at York last time and worth another chance to get off mark in this company.

Enjoy the weekend and best of luck with your trading and betting.

Wayne

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Day off

My cousin is getting married today (congrats Leanne!) so I'm having a day off the betting and trading. Got up at 8am this morning which felt like a bit lie-in as I'm normally up at six.

Looking forward to a day off, just taking it easy with friends and family.

Betfair trading book

I had a productive day yesterday and got most of a chapter finished on my book about trading on the exchanges. I'm a fair bit behind schedule though and need to set aside more time to write.

I'm a librarian by profession so down through the years, thousands of books have passed through my hands but only now am I coming to realise the time and effort that goes into each. Still, it's quite rewarding and the ideas are starting to flow again following a little spell of writers' block.

In the racing, I've one bet for today in the 5.45 at Southwell: Club House

 I'm hoping get 5/2 or thereabouts on this two-year-old which, unusually, has been gelded already. First Serve is the obvious danger to the bet but here's what Timeform have to say about the selection:

From family of high class 1½m performer Shirocco. Consistent efforts all starts over 6f in maidens/nursery, finding frame in last 3, though not certain drop in trip suits with headgear now fitted.

****

Couldn't find any decent trading opportunities in the markets this morning - it's a quiet time of the year generally and trading volumes are quite low which often makes it tricky. I've no open positions at the moment so I'll continue to spend my time reading a few books and what not.

***

Finally, just wanted to make my readers aware of an excellent blog post by a mate of mine.

Anyone with an online presence (which is most people these days) should find plenty of food for thought and it is well worth a read:

http://deisesupes.wordpress.com/2012/08/14/a-scattered-mess-of-opinions-definitely-not-related-to-marketing/

Best of luck with whatever you do today and drive safely if you are on the roads - the weather is supposed to get mental later.

Wayne

Katie Taylor's homecoming, Bray

Took a half-day yesterday to go out to Bray to see Katie Taylor's homecoming: There were huge crowds there and my young daughter enjoyed it immensely. She really is a great role-model for the young ones - as a father, it's concerning to see the influences the kids have these days but Katie Taylor is just fantastic - an inspiration to us all and she proves what hard work and dedication can achieve. She's also quite religious too which is nice and refreshing in this day and age where anyone with any sort of belief gets ridiculed. This pic is from the Irish Independent, absolutely wonderful:

The fireworks in Bray later that evening were great and my missus came out for that too. Overall, a great day. Credit goes to Bray Town Council and all the organisers, it was a great event.

***

With regard to the financial trading, I got stopped out for a (very) small profit on my FOREX trade which means I've no open positions at the moment. Had a look through the markets this morning but couldn't find anything. No real direction yet this week and traders seem cautious. It's really just a case of waiting to see where we are going but in the meantime, I'll sit it out until something obvious comes up.

Yesterday's S&P gap trade worked perfectly so a few bob was earned there. 

***

Went through the formbooks too this morning and there's no obvious bets on the racing either so a quiet day all-round.

I'm hoping to get another chapter done on my book this week so I'll get to work on that now. I'm a bit behind target with the book as I've been quite busy over the past few weeks.

By the way, I started an excellent book recently Come into My Trading Room      
It's by Alexander Elder - I'll do a review when I'm finished but so far, it is excellent - highly recommended. Actually, I did listen to one of his books  before named Trading for a Living
and didn't seem to get a huge amount out of it but to be honest, I don't think trading books are good on MP3 and I think I'll get the hard copy and try it again.

Right, better get back to work - best of luck with your trading and betting.

S&P 500 trading, Facebook shares

There's a nice downside gap on the S&P 500 this morning so I've bought it and hope to see it close by the afternoon. This trade is the S&P Gap trade I discussed last year and is one I've done quite well overall.

Elsewhere, my EUR/GBP trade is in profit - only eight quid at the moment but I'm using minimum stakes as it's something new I'm trying so I won't be winning or losing big on that overall.

On the racing front, I've been up since about six looking through the cards but I really can't find any opportunities today so that's best left alone.

Finally, it could be a tricky week for those that have bought Facebook shares. This week sees the ending of the time period where staff of the company are prohibited from selling the shares they acquired. While some will surely hold onto the shares, others are going to cash in which will see a good deal of supply enter the market, possibly pushing the price lower once again.

Overall, it's been pretty dismal for the buyers and the shares, which were once near $40 are now around $22:

EUR/GBP trading

I'll keep this short as I've been up since 6.30am and it's now heading for one in the morning so it's been a hell of a long day.

Fantastic win for Katie Taylor, she's an inspiration to us all and a great role model.


Forgot to mention yesterday that I sold the Euro against the Pound at 0.7882. Only used pennies as my stake as it's something new I'm working on which means my profit thus far is paltry at less than a fiver but again, it's a new strategy on working on so I'm more or less paper trading for now:

Unlucky with the form study bet, Smart Daisy K, which traded around 1/10 in-running but still got beat. I've two for Friday - but you won't be getting rich on these and both are odds-on:

2.20 Lingfield - Hairy Rocket
Showed good speed to score on debut at Windsor, and best effort when third in Queen Mary at Royal Ascot. Disappointed in Chantilly Group 3 last time, but should bounce back here.

3.00 Musselburgh - Liber
Easy maiden winner at Carlisle (5f) in May and held form since, most recently when landing a minor event at Bath with plenty in hand. Hard to envisage defeat here on that evidence.

Buy Manchester United shares ?

Manchester United will be trading on the New York Stock Exchange's Euronext by the end of the week but for me, they might be a sell rather than a buy.

They will be known as MANU for trading purposes:

http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/MANU?countryCode=US

Shares are expected to trade between $16 and $20 so we will wait and see but I get the feeling that this could be a little like Facebook with shares peaking early on then dropping.

I'd be lying if I said I've done an in-depth analysis of the club or anything - but it's just a general hunch. They have debts of $684 million and although that's reduced somewhat recently, it's still a hell of a lot.

The buyers will point to the worldwide fan base and United are said to be the biggest supported club in the world - but that's already going to be priced in. Plus, what if they go downhill? Not entirely impossible. Ferguson won't be in charge forever and there will be changes over the next few years. For better or worse remains to be seen. Even a small dip in form on the pitch will see them lose money and that might have an effect on the price. They need the TV money, the Champions League money etc etc so that all depends on performance. In fairness though, that's not dissimilar to any other business I guess.

Their fanbase will grow depending on success and I think buyers have to factor that into the equation.

Like facebook, you always get the people and fans who want to buy shares and be part of the story. This often inflates the price early on but once the shares are sold to these people, the demand wanes. If I see this happen, I may get in and sell. One to watch anyway!


Quite proud of my caption here, by the way:

The Theatre of dreams - will it prove nightmare for MANU buyers?

***

Not a bad old day on the racing yesterday with Rising Legend winning at a Betfair SP of 3.37. I've one bet today, here's Timeform's comment. It looks like the filly will go off around evens:

6.20 Chepstow - Smart Daisy K
Plenty of speed in pedigree and made a pleasing start when ¾-length second of 9 to Redressthebalance (good winner since) on 5.7f Bath debut (good to soft ground) in June. The one to beat.

***

Very proud of the Irish medals in the Olympics yesterday. Katie Taylor was her usual brilliant self and goes for gold this evening. It would be absolutely fantastic if she wins and she has really given the nation a boost - especially after a woeful Euro 2012. Please God, she goes all the way to gold.

Paddy Barnes became the first Irish boxer to win medals at separate Olympic Games - a fantastic achievement. He had a tough fight last night but got there in the end. He's up against it now but best of luck to him and he has already done his country proud.

Cian O'Connor won bronze too and despite the odd negative comment, I'm glad for him. What happened in the past happened and I wouldn't condone it - but he's done the time for the crime so to speak, and I believe that every man deserves a second chance in life. He's learned from his mistake and to overcome his demons and go back and win a medal at this level, despite the negativity, is a great achievement. 

Best of luck with your trading and betting today. 

Katie Taylor - a great ambassador for the country:

External sites:

GOLD TURTLE TRADERS SYSTEM:  £200 STARTING BANK NOW £6,490

Katie Taylor to win silver Olympic medal

Hopefully!

Taylor beat Mavzuna Chorieva of Tajikistan handy enough before so fingers crossed for her this afternoon. I must admit, I had to google Tajikistan - it's amazing how you hear so little about certain countries in the media etc:

Anyhow, Taylor has already done us proud as did Michael Conlan last night.

*** 

On the financial trading, I've been stopped out of my open positions - some for a loss. It was probably a bit of a gamble to be trading near the end of last week with a few crucial meetings on but interestingly, it was the FOREX trades that netted me profit with the commodities and the Indices trades losers. FOREX is something I want to do more of and I'm still very much learning the ropes.

***

Two formstudy bets today, Timeform comments below:

3.20 Brighton - Rising Legend
Hasn't looked especially progressive, but placed all 4 starts to date, achieving decent level of form in the process. Shaped as though return to this trip would suit when runner-up over 6f last time.

5.35 Sligo - Strapless
Cheaply bought sister to Irish 1m winner Miracle Cure, by Whipper out of an Irish maiden. Placed all 5 starts in maidens, and though not at best last twice she sets the standard.

Blank day

Hi folks, I've a few things to do with the family this morning so haven't had time to look at trading/betting  - so there's no bets/trades today.

Katie Taylor @ the Olympics

What a great sportsperson and a fantastic ambassador for Ireland:

Looking forward to the fight and I'm going to head out with the family for a few pints and a bit to eat. She's 1/8 in the betting which seems a little short but she really is fantastic and hopefully, she'll get Gold by the time the Olympics are done.

On the racing front, I've two bets for today although the one at Ripon is a very short price - here's what Timeform have to say on each:

3.20 Naas - Boston Rocker
€35,000 filly by Acclamation who made all in a 6f Fairyhouse maiden in June and best effort yet when ½-length second to Parliament Square in listed heat at Tipperary since (Blue Bullet fourth).

2.15 - Ripon - Royal Aspiration 
Runner-up in couple of 5f maidens in June and latest 2½ lengths tenth of 22 in the Super Sprint at Newbury represented much-improved form given the quality of that field. Obvious claims here.

Saturday

Yesterday's non-farm payrolls gave the markets a boost - which paired away most of my gains on my short trades. I got stopped out for a seventeen quid loss on the Dow. My other trades are still open: Gold, Silver, and GBP/USD but as I say, the rise in the markets after the NFPs has paired my gains. I'll hold on for now and see what next week brings.

***

I've just the one form study bet today - here's Timeform's comments:

2.30 Thirsk - Geanie Mac
Speedily bred, but improved for step up to this trip when runner-up on handicap bow at Folkestone 9 days ago. Blinkers she wore there retained, and leading claims at this lowly level.

Currently trading around 9/5 on the machine but I'm quietly confident that we'll see a good performance.

***


Dublin are playing tonight but I've decided to save a few quid and watch it on the box at home - I've spent a fortune already this week and went out for a meal with the wife and daughter last night. I'm also going out for a few jars tomorrow so I can't really justify the cost of going to the match and all it entails. I'll watch it on the box instead - Dublin should win handy enough and I reckon the 'over 1.5' goals at 8/13 is a great bet.

***

Finally, here's today's Irish Independent article - best of luck with your trading and betting:

THE FUGUE

EARLIER this week, I heard a bloke on the radio complaining about the amount of alcohol consumed at the Galway Races but if you think Irish society is out of control in 2012, spare a thought for a German traveller by the name of Puckler, who attended a race meeting at Galway in 1828. Shocked by what he saw, he put pen to paper and I came across an account of his trip this week in an excellent book entitled Poor Green Erin by Eoin Bourke. According to Pucker, Irish racegoers have:

"a total incapacity to resist Poitín as long as they have a penny in their pocket to procure it. Wild melee's break out any minute... hundreds of drunkards accompanied our carriage as we drove from the racecourse to the town and more than ten times, brawls broke out among them... these things are characteristics of an only half-civilised people. With the amount of guests in the town it was with great trouble that we found a miserable lodging".

I think it's safe to say we are a bit more civil in this day and age although just like Puckler, I've often found myself bedding down in some miserable lodging at Galway, having left it far too late in the day to book a nice hotel. Centuries pass, but some things never change. Over-indulgence and dodgy accommodation aside, it's been an enjoyable festival overall but with the quality of racing declining as the week draws to a close, attention now turns across the water to the final day at Goodwood, where the feature race is the Group One Markel Insurance Nassau Stakes (3.15). Last year, Sir Henry Cecil's Midday became the most successful horse in the race's history by winning it for a third time but it's hard to fancy his 2012 entry, Timepiece, which was most disappointing in her two starts this season, despite a very successful campaign last term. Roger Varian's Nahrain has very strong claims, winning her first four races including the Prix de l'Opera at Longchamp - and while her subsequent second place in the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf was a great achievement, she raised some questions when putting in a lacklustre performance in a Group Two at Ascot last time. Perhaps she needed the run after a break but she'll have to be back to her best if she's to make it home in front today. Then winner then, may come from John Gosden’s yard and at current prices, THE FUGUE just about gets the nod ahead of stablemate Izzi Top with Richard Hughes and William Buick taking the reins on those receptively. The latter has won three Group races already this year but with just a few pounds separating the top half of the field, I can't justify backing her as short as 15/8. The Fugue was a little bit unlucky to only come third in the Oaks; she was badly hampered throughout, and her second place in the Ribblesdale three weeks later deserves credit considering the Oaks took a lot out of her. She's had a nice six-week break and if on top form today, she will take all the beating, priced around 7/2.

EACH WAY OUTSIDER

ELUSIVE PRINCE carries a penalty into today's Stewards' Cup (3.55 Goodwood) but he's still relatively unexposed and is worth a small punt at 25/1. The four-year-old made all when winning a handicap on heavy going at Chester last time but he adapts to various ground conditions and might have a bit more to come before the assessor catches up. With a great record around Goodwood, Borderlescott will be interesting to watch at a double figure price although at eleven years of age, you'd have to feel that the handicapper has his measure.

DO THE DOUBLE

Gaelic Football: Dublin fans were happy to see their side drawn against Laois for tonight's All-Ireland quarter-final and it's hard to envisage any other result than a comprehensive win for the Liffeysiders. At 1/8, there's not much point in backing them to win so make the most of Paddy Power’s offer of 8/13 on there being OVER 1.5 GOALS at Croke Park this evening.

Horseracing: Following some modest form over the one mile distance on the all-weather this season, GEANIE MAC proved far more useful when stepped up in trip by an extra four furlongs in a handicap at Folkestone last week and was the surprise runner-up at 25/1. A repeat of that form in today's Yorkshire Outdoors Adventure Experiences Maiden Selling Stakes (2.30 Thirsk) should see her go close, and the 3/1 on offer early-doors looks generous.

TODAY'S SECECTIONS

1.45 Newmarket: Strictly Silca

2.30 Thirsk: Geanie Mac

3.15 Goodwood: The Fugue

3.55 Goodwood: Elusive Prince (e/w)

Galway Festival Betting Tips, Friday, day five

It was a bit of a rollercoaster day for my bank balance on Thursday with the financial trades doing very well but the racing at Galway doing woeful. I was particularly gutted with the nap of the day, Dazzling Suzie, as I had a pretty hefty bet on that one - but she just couldn't find anything when she got to the hill. Yellow Rosebud was also disappointing and was beaten by a head.

As mentioned, I sold Silver, Gold, the Dax and the Dow. I also have an open sell on GBP/USD.  While the Dax got stopped out, the rest of them quickly went into profit as the markets fell following the ECB meeting.

At one stage, I was up over €100 in profit but as I stand, I'm up 80 odd quid:

Again, the stakes were small but I didn't want to use up too much margin as it is a new strategy that I'm working on. It's nice to get something back on the day following a poor day on the horses so hopefully they stay well in the black - although I'm keeping an eye on the markets as they always get choppy around non-farm payrolls.

***

The form study bet, Silken Express, won fine so I'm delighted with that. Again, I'm not counting my chickens but it's good to see a recovery on those following a poor spell not so long ago. I've two form study bets for Friday, both from Galway - here's Timeform's comments:

5.40 Galway - Nupur
Dark Angel half-sister to 3 winners abroad, including useful French 7.5f winner Double Vie. Promising second to Harasiya on debut and unsuited by steady pace at Naas last time. Should do better.

8.15 Galway - Distant Memories
Useful performer who landed listed race at Pontefract for Tom Tate in 2011. Showed useful form over hurdles for current yard and looks to have been found a good opportunity returned to the Flat.

***

With regard to the running, I got out on Thursday morning for a bit. I've had a mad busy week and am quite tired now so I'm not sure when I'll go out again. I want a small bit of time to myself over the Bank Holiday weekend as I've put in about 50 hours this week already across all codes. I may get out on Sunday or Monday, I'll see how it goes.

Finally, here's Friday's Irish Independent article. Hope it proves fruitful, could do with an extra few bob for the long weekend:

NURPUR
DAY five at Galway has arrived which means we're well past halfway . It's a tough old slog and there's been plenty of ups and downs for punters in the four days just gone. I've had my own rollercoaster ride with the bookmakers this week and alongside some decent priced winners, I've had a fair share of bad luck including two horses getting chinned on the line on Wednesday; both of which had traded at 1/10 in-running in their respective races before getting beat. After four days of gargle and gambling, punters at Ballybrit will find the tiredness setting in around now but it's important not to lose focus, and the formbook deserves just as much attention on Friday as it did on Monday. The famous American Football  coach Vince Lombardi once said that fatigue makes cowards of us all - but there's plenty more action to come so we'll keep the pot of coffee on the boil and see what the rest of the week throws up. Today's card looks decidedly tricky with some of the handicaps particularly difficult to decipher but I reckon there's at least one race that should be straightforward enough, where NURPUR (nap) can be backed at a fairly generous price of 6/4 in the Guinness 17:59 European Breeders Fund Median Auction Maiden (5.40). On paper, her fifth place from six runners in a maiden at Naas last time is off-putting but she was unprepared for the late burst of pace two furlongs out from Ger Lyons' winner Lightnin Hopkins and it's fair to say she was simply caught napping on the job. That's not much consolation for those that backed her at 8/15 but she did show ability when runner-up in her debut race at Leopardstown and I've no doubt that jockey Chris Hayes will keep a close eye on the moves of his six other rivals today. Dermot Weld's colt Muaanid can chase them home. In the Guinness Galway Blazers Handicap Chase (6.15), consider the old-timer AGUS A VIC at 8/1. At eleven years of age, he's no spring chicken but he proved at Punchestown that he can still run a big race and at these weights, the handicapper has given him a fighting chance this evening. 

TODAY'S SELECTIONS
5.10 Carlowsantana
5.40 Nurpur (nap)
6.15 Agus A Vic
6.50 Man of God (e/w)
7.25 Pale Mimosa
7.55 Merkel
8.25 Distant Memories