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Thursday, August 2, 2012

Galway Festival betting tips, Thursday, day four

It could have been a great day yesterday but I ended up with a mixed bag that included plenty of frustration.

In the first at Galway, Too Scoops was chinned on the line having traded at 1/10 in-running. I reckon there was interference that cost him but there's no point in complaining. Later, Our Connor also looked the winner all-over and also traded at 1/10 in-running before getting chinned on the line aswell. Ouch!  Luckily, the nap of the day Fatcatinthehat won which was great as it was my biggest bet of the day.

The form study bet, Pearl Sea, won too so that was another few quid back. Can't help feeling a little short-changed on the day though. Still, that's the joys and sorrows of racing for you.

Today could be tricky again but we'll see what happens - today's Irish Independent article is posted below.

Frankel was his usual awesome self and I see connections are considering the Prix Du Moulin. He may also go to Ascot on October 20th which leaves me in a bit of a dilema. I was thinking of going to the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe this year as it has been a while since I went. It's my birthday month in October and I like to take a weekend away to celebrate but I may consider Ascot instead as that may well be Frankel's last race. I'll have a chat with the bosswoman and see what the craic is. 

Longchamp racecourse, Paris:


On the financials, I've been busy doing a little bit of selling - again, I'm using the 'tops and bottoms' strategy as explained in Mastering The Trade.

Yesterday's sell on the GBP/USD is in profit of about fifteen quid. Again, I'm looking for some short term trades that only last a few days but I've just sold Silver, Gold, the Dax and the Dow. My stakes are very small but overall, I'm using up margin of about a ton (€100).

I could be in for a bit of a rollercoaster ride today though - what will today's ECB meeting produce? I kinda feel that Draghi has put himself in a bit of a corner by saying they will take very strong measures to save the Euro. Other than bond buying, what else can they do?  So if we don't see some bond buying, he could risk looking foolish. Anyway, we'll wait and see...


As mentioned, I'd one winner on the form study bets yesterday and these seem to be picking up again. Not counting my chickens though - it's not long ago I was down at break-even so I'm being cautious and not lumping too much money on. I've one bet for today and it will probably be quite short - here's what Timeform have to say:

6.10 Ffos Las - Silken Express
Very green when narrowly denied on AW debut at Southwell (5f) last month having been very well backed. Sets a decent standard on that form, and looks sure to improve ahead of switch to turf.


Here's today's Irish Independent article - best of luck with your trading and betting today:

THE missus has fears that I’m some sort of masochist, but each morning I like to go onto the Met Eireann website to find out what the weather is going to be like for the day – and while browsing the site yesterday, I read that July 2012 was the coldest and wettest on record in Ireland in 40 years.
As I look out the window at yet more dark clouds, I don’t have much hope for a reprieve in August and you would have to feel for the Galway racegoers who have had to retire to the bars to watch much of the action so far this week.
We had a little bit of sunshine yesterday, but more showers are expected in the west this morning, so for the Guinness Galway Hurdle, make sure your selection can handle the going as it’s a tough enough race to win on a good day, never mind when the ground is soft or heavy.
We’ve a couple of mud- lovers going to post, but one that’s sure to handle the conditions is the John Carr- trained BENASH, whose best lines of form come on soft or heavy ground.
A resourceful sort, he’s useful enough over fences too and has kept himself fit on the level by placing in a couple of maidens last month.
He’s definitely best over timber though and at 20/ 1, you could do worse things this week than take him each- way. Willie Mullins’ Drive Time is a big danger to the bet and I’ve a feeling this gelding is a good few pounds ahead of the handicapper.
He’s another that has done well on the Flat lately and with Ruby doing the steering, he’s in safe hands.
In the Guinness Series Novice Chase, DAZZLING SUSIE is the nap of the day, priced around 5/ 2.
Her trainer John Phelan said she was “exceptional” following her first schooling over fences and she lived up to her billing by later taking a beginners chase and then a novice chase back in June.

Finally, the obligatory Dermot Weld selection is YELLOW ROSEBUD in the Arthur Guinness European Breeders Fund Corrib Fillies Stakes ( 3.35).
She wasn’t keen on the good ground in the Irish 1,000 Guineas last time, but I’m confident we’ll see a much improved performance from the three- year- old today.

1.50 Silverhand
2.25 Dazzling Susie nap
3.0 Waydownsouth (e/w)
3.35 Yellow Rosebud
4.10 Thynetocatcher
4.50 Benash (e/w)
5.30 King Of Oriel
6.05 Cooper's Dream

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