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Saturday, August 4, 2012

Saturday

Yesterday's non-farm payrolls gave the markets a boost - which paired away most of my gains on my short trades. I got stopped out for a seventeen quid loss on the Dow. My other trades are still open: Gold, Silver, and GBP/USD but as I say, the rise in the markets after the NFPs has paired my gains. I'll hold on for now and see what next week brings.

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I've just the one form study bet today - here's Timeform's comments:

2.30 Thirsk - Geanie Mac
Speedily bred, but improved for step up to this trip when runner-up on handicap bow at Folkestone 9 days ago. Blinkers she wore there retained, and leading claims at this lowly level.

Currently trading around 9/5 on the machine but I'm quietly confident that we'll see a good performance.

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Dublin are playing tonight but I've decided to save a few quid and watch it on the box at home - I've spent a fortune already this week and went out for a meal with the wife and daughter last night. I'm also going out for a few jars tomorrow so I can't really justify the cost of going to the match and all it entails. I'll watch it on the box instead - Dublin should win handy enough and I reckon the 'over 1.5' goals at 8/13 is a great bet.

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Finally, here's today's Irish Independent article - best of luck with your trading and betting:





THE FUGUE
EARLIER this week, I heard a bloke on the radio complaining about the amount of alcohol consumed at the Galway Races but if you think Irish society is out of control in 2012, spare a thought for a German traveller by the name of Puckler, who attended a race meeting at Galway in 1828. Shocked by what he saw, he put pen to paper and I came across an account of his trip this week in an excellent book entitled Poor Green Erin by Eoin Bourke. According to Pucker, Irish racegoers have:
"a total incapacity to resist Poitín as long as they have a penny in their pocket to procure it. Wild melee's break out any minute... hundreds of drunkards accompanied our carriage as we drove from the racecourse to the town and more than ten times, brawls broke out among them... these things are characteristics of an only half-civilised people. With the amount of guests in the town it was with great trouble that we found a miserable lodging".
I think it's safe to say we are a bit more civil in this day and age although just like Puckler, I've often found myself bedding down in some miserable lodging at Galway, having left it far too late in the day to book a nice hotel. Centuries pass, but some things never change. Over-indulgence and dodgy accommodation aside, it's been an enjoyable festival overall but with the quality of racing declining as the week draws to a close, attention now turns across the water to the final day at Goodwood, where the feature race is the Group One Markel Insurance Nassau Stakes (3.15). Last year, Sir Henry Cecil's Midday became the most successful horse in the race's history by winning it for a third time but it's hard to fancy his 2012 entry, Timepiece, which was most disappointing in her two starts this season, despite a very successful campaign last term. Roger Varian's Nahrain has very strong claims, winning her first four races including the Prix de l'Opera at Longchamp - and while her subsequent second place in the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf was a great achievement, she raised some questions when putting in a lacklustre performance in a Group Two at Ascot last time. Perhaps she needed the run after a break but she'll have to be back to her best if she's to make it home in front today. Then winner then, may come from John Gosden’s yard and at current prices, THE FUGUE just about gets the nod ahead of stablemate Izzi Top with Richard Hughes and William Buick taking the reins on those receptively. The latter has won three Group races already this year but with just a few pounds separating the top half of the field, I can't justify backing her as short as 15/8. The Fugue was a little bit unlucky to only come third in the Oaks; she was badly hampered throughout, and her second place in the Ribblesdale three weeks later deserves credit considering the Oaks took a lot out of her. She's had a nice six-week break and if on top form today, she will take all the beating, priced around 7/2.

EACH WAY OUTSIDER
ELUSIVE PRINCE carries a penalty into today's Stewards' Cup (3.55 Goodwood) but he's still relatively unexposed and is worth a small punt at 25/1. The four-year-old made all when winning a handicap on heavy going at Chester last time but he adapts to various ground conditions and might have a bit more to come before the assessor catches up. With a great record around Goodwood, Borderlescott will be interesting to watch at a double figure price although at eleven years of age, you'd have to feel that the handicapper has his measure.

DO THE DOUBLE
Gaelic Football: Dublin fans were happy to see their side drawn against Laois for tonight's All-Ireland quarter-final and it's hard to envisage any other result than a comprehensive win for the Liffeysiders. At 1/8, there's not much point in backing them to win so make the most of Paddy Power’s offer of 8/13 on there being OVER 1.5 GOALS at Croke Park this evening.
Horseracing: Following some modest form over the one mile distance on the all-weather this season, GEANIE MAC proved far more useful when stepped up in trip by an extra four furlongs in a handicap at Folkestone last week and was the surprise runner-up at 25/1. A repeat of that form in today's Yorkshire Outdoors Adventure Experiences Maiden Selling Stakes (2.30 Thirsk) should see her go close, and the 3/1 on offer early-doors looks generous.

TODAY'S SECECTIONS
1.45 Newmarket: Strictly Silca
2.30 Thirsk: Geanie Mac
3.15 Goodwood: The Fugue
3.55 Goodwood: Elusive Prince (e/w)


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