Trading software

Saturday, October 6, 2012

Saturday and Sunday's bets

'Twas was a great day yesterday with a couple of decent priced winners. On the downside, my financial trades got stopped out for a loss but the racing more than made up for it. Here's today's Irish Independent article.

IT has been a week of surprises in the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe market with CAMELOT and Great Heavens both declared, Danedream and Nathanial both ruled out; and Frankie Dettori offered a gilt-edged ride for Aidan O’Brien. Even though tensions between Godolphin and Ballydoyle have eased considerably over the past few years, the move is significant and it will be the first time the Italian native has taken the reins on an O’Brien horse since partnering Scorpion to victory in the St Leger back in 2005. It’s said that Joseph O’Brien can’t get the weight down to 8st 11lbs to ride Camelot which is somewhat disappointing; although with some analysts still blaming the jockey for Camelot’s loss at Doncaster, the young O'Brien would have found himself under the most intense pressure imaginable to get it right tomorrow. Deep down, perhaps he should feel a sense of relief now that the tremendous burden of restoring the horse’s reputation (not to mention value) has been lifted from his shoulders. With 24 Arc races including three wins under the belt, Dettori is a safe pair of hands although it still must be said that O’Brien is not without a chance on St Nicholas Abbey, which is generally available around 10/1. The betting proved entertaining this week with Danedream backed down from 999/1 to 9/1 on Betfair following rumours that she would be allowed to take her place. But such rumours proved unfounded and unfortunately, last year’s winner remains in quarantine at her training base in Cologne following an outbreak of swamp fever. Great Heavens seemed an unlikely runner and had also been matched at the maximum price on the exchange, but she was supplemented late on Thursday at a cost of €100,000 and now trades around 12/1. So, are we likely to see a flying dismount from Frankie at Longchamp tomorrow afternoon? That's a tricky question. If you're willing to forgive Camelot for Doncaster, then you'd have to say there’s a great chance of it happening. Who knows – perhaps Camelot’s not really the staying type after all and we may see a rejuvenated animal now that he's back at a mile and a half. While they weren't the strongest renewals, he did win the Guineas and the Derby after all, and at 11/4, I reckon it's just about worth giving him another chance of atonement. That said, it's hard to pick holes in the form of the second favourite, Japanese Triple Crown winner Orfevre. Rated 3lbs clear of the field by Timeform, he's been putting in some superb prep work over a mile at Chantilly and is sure to make Camelot work hard for his oats. On the negative side, Orfevre’s high draw in stall 18 could prove troublesome. Sea Moon is another one with claims and numerous bookmakers reported strong each-way support for the colt since Ryan Moore was confirmed fit to ride. So while it was disappointing to lose some high-profile entries, it’s still a fascinating contest overall. Admittedly, it’s not a very original pick - but Camelot narrowly gets the vote ahead of Orfevre to land France's most prestigious race. At Ascot, take a chance on MINCE at 5/2 in the group three John Guest Bengough Stakes (3.05). Trainer Roger Charlton had originally considered the Prix De L'Abbaye at Longchamp for his three-year-old but has opted to keep her on home soil as the filly goes for a four-timer to follow on from a career best at York last time.

A couple of months ago, I tipped ARNOLD LANE in the Betfair Summer double at Goodwood and he wasn't disgraced when coming second at 6/1 in what turned out to be a very competitive handicap. He's back in action today in the Betfred Challenge Cup (3.35 Ascot) and I remain convinced that we'll see him back in the winners enclosure sooner rather than later. Take him each way at 14/1.

Horseracing: MANDY LAYLA (11/8) didn't handle the heavy ground at Chester last time but she's dropped in class for this evening's Phil And Sandra Baddeley 40th Wedding Anniversary Selling Stakes at Wolverhampton (6.50) which should see her back to winning ways. She performs best when given a prominent ride so Tom Eaves is best advised to get her out in front early.
Soccer: Manchester City were lucky to get away with it in the Champions League on Wednesday and even Roberto Mancini has admitted that all is not well with the setup. With just one victory in the past five league meetings of the pair, City's record against Sunderland is a little suspect and odds of 2/7 for a home victory today look decidedly short. Back the Black Cats to land the 'double chance' bet (win or draw) at 3/1.

2.30 Ascot: Songcraft (e/w)
3.05 Ascot: Mince
3.35 Ascot: Arnold Lane (e/w)
6.50 Wolverhampton: Mandy Layla
3.25 Longchamp: Camelot (Sunday)

No comments:

Post a Comment