Strange day

Spent the day trading today with a monkey (€500) and it turned out to be a very strange day. I started off using my new strategy but I accidentally left a lay stake go in running and it got hit costing me 80 quid straight off. Really bad start! What's more, I was green for that race beforehand so it was a double blow.

When you lose like that early on, it's not good for the state of mind although I tried my best to trade as if it didn't happen. The new strategy didn't work quite as well as I thought it would and while I was breaking even for a while, I've pinpointed some areas where I need some work.

I decided to change tack about 3.30 and went all out, trying to get my money turned over as safely as possible. I'm quite proud as I didn't have any losing races since changing plan.

Then Betfair went down for about twenty minutes which wasn't ideal as it disrupted the flow. For the last few races, I pulled out all the stops trying to finish the day in profit. I probably took a few extra risks to be honest but I managed to put in a decent session and pull in some good results. Overall I finished the day a tenner down which isn't too bad I guess considering how it started.

I'm trying to tell myself it wasn't a day wasted but I can't help feeling a little dejected to finish with a loss having put so much energy into it. A nice pint of stout to calm the stress will be welcome!

Saturday's Irish Independent article

Plenty of racing today following the break for Good Friday. I've put a monkey in my testing account and I'm going to trade my new strategy for the day to see how I get on. I'll report back with a P&L over the weekend. Rather ironically, it's been a while since I spent a whole day trading as I've been working hard on my upcoming book (about trading!). It will be good to be back in the thick of the action on a busy Saturday.  I see Jupiter Rex is back out for Venetia Williams, back over fences - she's really excelled in finding races for this horse and it will be a big surprise to see it beat - although at the prices, it won't be making me rich. Anyway, here's today's Irish Independent article:

Break

Hi all,

Sorry, haven't posted much lately as I've taken a little unplanned break from betting. No real reason, it was just some time to relax after a busy period over Cheltenham. My missus is off for a few days too so we've been out and about but I don't think I've missed too much with the weather being poor. We also have Aintree and Punchestown coming up so I'll be busy once again then too.

Over the past week or two, I've been working on a new trading strategy that has worked a few times so far but I can't wait to try it out with proper money - maybe I'll give it a go on Saturday. I don't want to say too much as I'm thinking of putting it in my book as a chapter if it works out but it is more or less similar to the S&P Gap trade strategy I've posted on here a number of times. Obviously, I've had to adjust to the sports markets as they don't really 'gap' as such but the idea is that the market has a memory so you back or lay and wait for the market to return to a certain price that the horse traded at in the past. Early days, but promising. I'm going to throw a monkey (€500) in the testing account over the weekend and see how I go.

There's no racing tomorrow being Good Friday. That suits me fine as I'm a Christian and like to take the day off to begin the Easter. But religion aside, it bugs me listening to all the people moaning about the lack of racing. FFS, there's racing on 363 days a year - there's too much of it on and most of it is low quality. Do we really need another day of class six no-hopers running around again just to keep a few compulsive gamblers happy? As I say, we have a busy time ahead with Aintree, Punchestown and the flat kicking off too so I'm just going to enjoy the quiet time while I can.

Happy Easter to all readers.

One for today

Just having the one bet today at Cork at 4.30 - Unoccupied gets a 4lb penalty for Sunday's win but is due to go up 11lbs. He looks well-in but how much his latest race took out of him remains to be seen. Might go each-way around 5/1 to be on the safer side.

Back to normality

Hi folks, haven't posted in a while - I was away on a stag weekend after Cheltenham and got back on Sunday. I took it easy on Monday and wasn't online but then I had to head to bed all yesterday with a horrible migraine.

Anyway, getting back to the festival, Friday was a cracking day with three great winners - really needed those after a woeful Thursday. That's it for another year although it looks like Punchestown could be shaping up to be a cracker with some of the same horses involved including Sprinter Sacre.
 
The Cheltenham Festival System that I posted up here worked well again this year, there were six winners from ten bets and a profit of over 4.24pts was shown (a little higher to BSP):

I didn't follow the system to the letter this year and missed out on one or two wins but that's the way it goes. I got a few compliments from people that saw it in the Indo and tried it out so I'm glad some people made a few quid.

Of course, the meeting had a bit of a cloud over it with JT McNamara getting seriously injured - please God he makes a speedy recovery.

On the Friday, I felt really bad for Jane Mangan missing out on that win, she looked a cert on Oscar Delta before being unseated. There was nothing she could do but I'm sure she was heartbroken. I think she's a great jockey and is well worth following.

Haven't done much on the financials lately but it looks a bit tricky to trade. Bernanke is expected to talk about QE so that could send the markets either way. Coupled with the whole Cyprus thing, we could be in for a rocky ride and I'm going to avoid trading for today.

Cheltenham Festival betting 2013: Friday, day four

A day for the bookies yesterday with a few double-figure priced winners. Here's hoping the punters can turn the tables today.

Today's Irish Independent article:

BOBS WORTH
ANTHONY Storr (1920-2001) was a well-known English author and psychiatrist and his work is often quoted by academics around the world. Storr once said that in order to be successful in the field of psychology, "the professional must learn to be moved and touched emotionally, yet at the same time stand back objectively". I reckon Storr's phrase is equally applicable to the business of betting on horses and in a sport which draws huge passion and emotion, it's often quite difficult to remain objective when studying the form. In a big race like the Gold Cup (3.20), it's particularly hard to remain impartial when one of the horses on the card has won for you before and it's quite natural as a punter to look more favourably on an animal that has lined your wallet in the past.  Having won a nice few quid on him in the Hennessy Gold Cup at Newbury, I find myself in that situation with Bobs Worth and I hope I'm not getting sucked into backing him just because he done me a good turn in the past. But having studied the runners as best one can and considered all the options, I still think Nicky Henderson's eight-year-old is the one to side with today, priced around 5/2. It's quite amusing to think that no-one wanted to buy him as a yearling; Henderson picked him up for just twenty grand some time later and he's certainly got his money's worth. He's got guts, he's got a huge heart and he always gives his best although on the downside, all Gold Cup winners since 1991 had raced more than once in the season. Bobs Worth missed his intended prep race, the Argento Cotswold Chase, due to a dirty scope but I wouldn't be getting overly concerned about his lack of recent action as Nicky Henderson has always been keen not to over-do it. It's noteworthy too that Bobs Worth has never been beaten at the course (for wins here including last year's RSA Chase) so there's no fear of him getting stage-fright on the big day. His jumping was strikingly accurate in the Hennessey despite the heavy weight burden and if he's on song today, he could be unstoppable. Of course Sir Des Champs (3/1) loves Cheltenham too and he's screaming out for this trip. It cost me a fair few bob opposing him in the Irish Hennessey and his presence has the potential to make this year's Gold Cup a classic. Long Run has become a real staying type lately and he would have been right at the top of my shortlist had the ground come up heavy. Condition's don't appear to be in his favour today although the fact that he's never finished outside the top three in his 24 races to date gives him plenty of appeal each-way. Silviniaco Conti (4/1) looks outstanding and was mighty impressive in the Charlie Hall at Wetherby but I'm not the only one who feels that he may be best suited to a less undulating track than Cheltenham.

LAY OF THE DAY
Salsify won the CGA Foxhunter Chase Challenge Cup (4.00) at last year's festival and it seems that punters have latched on to the eight-year-old again, pushing his price down to 5/2. He has strong claims to complete the double but Chapoturgeon, Cottage Oak and  Tricky Trickster will all be breathing down his neck and his price is simply too short in such a big field.

STAT ATTACK
WHILE a number of favourites have been beaten in recent years, the Gold Cup (3.20) hasn't thrown up too many shocks lately and the last horse to win priced in double figures was the Paul Nicholls trained See More Business (16/1) in 1999. Each of the last twelve winners were found in the first three in the betting although last year's winner, Synchronised (8/1), just about made that statistic having traded as high as 16/1 the morning of the race.

RACE-BY-RACE GUIDE
1.30
Our Conor proved himself as the best juvenile hurdler in Ireland when easily taking a Group One at Leopardstown last month and one of the horses he beat that day, Flaxen Flare, has franked the form by winning the Fred Winter on Wednesday. He'll take all the beating in the opener at 3/1.
2.05
A tricky race to figure out, the dual purpose gelding Kian's Delight is worth a second look at 25/1. He had a spin on the all-weather at Kempton recently to keep him fit and it wouldn't be a total shock to see him settle for minor honours.
2.40
The Rebecca Curtis trained At Fishers Cross has now won four in-a-row and the horse he beat here on trials day, The New One, won Wednesday's novice hurdle. A cracking prospect at 9/4.
3.20
An intriguing renewal where a strong case could be made for a number of horses including Sir Des Champs, Silviniaco Conti and Long Run. But Bobs Worth's performance when beating subsequent Lexus Chase winner Tidal Bay in the Hennessy at Newbury stands out, and his course form is a major plus.
4.00
Chapoturgeon is taken to reverse the placings with last year's winner Salsify. The selection was held off the pace a little too long last year but still produced a noble effort in defeat by a length when asked to kick on. Lessons have been learned and he can go one better today.
4.40
Gordon Elliott's Toner D'Oudairies has been running reasonably well over fences without setting the world alight but he can make his presence felt back over the smaller obstacles. Second in this race last year, he still has improvement to come and should be worth a small each-way punt at 10/1.
5.15
Oh Crick won this race in 2009 and while it's over a year since he's seen the winner's enclosure, he wasn't disgraced when fourth last time out in the Rifles Handicap Chase. He may just sneak a place at 20/1.

Cheltenham Festival betting 2013: Thursday, day three

A frustrating one yesterday with Tofino Bay trading at 1/100 in-running before getting beat and Boston Bob hitting 1/4 in-running before falling. They would have been two nice winners but those are the breaks. One a more positive note, there was a lovely gap trade on the S&P500 which banked a nice few bob. I've managed to get most of those right this year and it's increased my bank by 25% which is a great return. That said, the S&P has been easy enough to trade as it's been only going one way all year. Anyway, we move on to Thursday at Cheltenham, which is World Hurdle day. Here's today's Irish Independent article:

OSCAR WHISKY
DOES anyone remember the alternative currency in existence in 1980s Ireland? Butter vouchers were liberally distributed to people on the dole and they were supposed to help out struggling families with their shopping. But because business owners could convert them to cash with no questions asked, the vouchers were essentially as good as money and most shops would accept them for all sorts of purchases; from bread and milk to a packet of Woodbines. Indeed, in 1988, my old man sent me down to the local independent bookmaker with a handful of vouchers to back Galmoy in the World Hurdle and the clerk behind the counter took the bet from me, aged eight, without batting an eyelid. Times sure have changed although the battle with the bookmakers remains constant. Galmoy won the race for a second consecutive year under Tommy Carmody at 2/1 and part of my father's winnings were paid out in butter vouchers - which was no problem at all as the local pub accepted them as cash too. Baracouda, Inglis Drever and Big Buck's would all go on to win the race more than once and connections of the latter have said that he won't be seen again before the 2014 World Hurdle. If he is still injured and doesn't make the race, he'll be retired. He got me out of jail more than once on a Thursday but this year, I'll be relying on Nicky Henderson's Oscar Whisky to relieve the bookmakers of some cash and it could be a cracking race (3.20) as Reve De Sivola, which beat the selection by a neck last time out, also makes the line-up. Why should Oscar Whisky reverse the placings today? For a start, the ground was heavy in the Cleeve Hurdle which was not ideal for both but probably suited Reve De Sivola a little better. With soft ground expected today, they'll go that bit faster and the pace may hinder Reve De Sivola who has often been less than fluent with his jumping. Oscar Whisky's trainer can't figure out why he flopped in last year's World Hurdle but judging by his races since, it looks like a one-off bad day at the office. He travels well and is a genuine sort that can be trusted to give punters a good run for their money. In the Ryanair Chase (2.40), Riverside Theatre is a nice price at 5/1 to follow up last year's win. The heavy ground can be blamed on his lacklustre performance in the King George at Kempton last time and if we overlook that result, he has a fantastic record when fresh. Cue Card is running some career-best races this season and is almost certain to go close. 

LAY OF THE DAY
Inching Closer won the Pertemps Final Handicap Hurdle (2.05) back in 2003 but it has been a dismal race for punters since, with just one favourite placed. Sam Winner looks set to go off around 4/1 this year but when you consider that the latest nine winners were priced in double figures, his odds today looks decidedly short. Lay the six-year-old in the place market at even-money. 

STAT ATTACK
WITH a strike-rate of 29%, the Paul Nicholls/Ruby Walsh combination often sends the bookies running for cover and Wonderful Charm is bound to attract a certain level of support in this afternoon's Ladbrokes World Hurdle (3.20). However, a lack of maturity often sees younger horses struggle over the longer distances at the festival and no five-year-old has ever won the race. Fifteen have taken part since 1997 but less than half of those have managed to place. 

RACE BY RACE GUIDE
1.30
Dynaste looks the real deal over fences. He was oozing class when winning the Kauto Star Feltham Novices' Chase in December and his short price of 7/4 is justified.
2.05
This race has become a bookmaker benefit in recent years and the average SP of the winner since 2004 is 23/1. American Trilogy might be worth a small each-way bet at 16/1 now that he's been dropped in the weights.
2.40
Cue Card comes here in the form of his life and his sure to make his presence felt although his odds are a little on the short side at 11/4. First Lieutenant is expected to give a good account of himself, but a chance is taken on Riverside Theatre at 5/1 to bounce back from a poor display on heavy ground in the King George.
3.20
Big Buck's won't get an opportunity to emulate Golden Miller and Quevega by winning a festival race five years on the trot but owner Andy Stewart has said that they will be back to have a crack at the 2014 renewal. In his absence, Oscar Whiskey can land the spoils at 10/3. The eight-year-old was beaten by a neck by Reve De Sivola in the Cleeve hurdle here last time but he's proved he can stay the distance and should reverse the placings today on better ground.
4.00
Ballynagour landed a gamble at Warwick in fine style last month and the form has been franked as the horse he beat that day, Golden Chieftain, went on to win the JLT Specialty Handicap Chase on Tuesday. He looks a seriously good horse and is a confident selection today, priced around 7/2.
4.40
A tricky handicap to decipher where at least nine or ten runners have claims. The Venetia Williams trained Relax has been in good form of late and is given a token each-way vote off what looks to be a fair weight.
5.15
Tuesday's race has been rescheduled but the selection remains the same. Enda Bolger specialises in the cross country and has had the winner or runner-up of this race in seven of the last eight renewals. Nina Carberry had to settle for second place on Tofino Bay yesterday (traded at 1/100 in-running) but she can land a festival win today on board Bolger's Arabella Boy, priced around 7/2. 

Cheltenham Festival betting 2013: Wednesday, day two

Today's Irish Independent article:

BOSTON BOB
WHEN you see a horse at a very skinny price, it's your job as a punter to look for chinks in its armour and try to find a reason to take it on. So-called good things get beaten all the time and already this year we've seen plenty of shocks in the markets including Good Evans, Spirit Of Shankly and Cockney Sparrow  which were beaten at 2/13, 1/6 and 1/6 respectively. While I do accept that the market is more efficent at the shorter end, plenty of hype horses get beaten at the Festival and for the past few weeks, I've been trying to come up with a list of reason to oppose Sprinter Sacre in the Queen Mother Champion Chase (3.20). But I've been left holding my pen, staring at a blank piece of paper and I have to concede that the seven-year-old looks bombproof.  It all invokes memories of the great Moscow Flyer and Barry Geraghty is a very lucky man to get the chance to ride both. Some believe he's much better than Moscow Flyer; although with superlatives being dished out like there's no tomorrow it's worth reminding ourselves that Sprinter Sacre hasn't yet taken part in a Champion Chase so let's give him a chance to prove himself at the top. Still though, it's what Cheltenham is all about and it will be good for the sport to have another chasing superstar with so many of the old guard winding down in recent years. If we are to find a negative, it's that Sprinter Sacre hasn't really met a serious rival that was up to his level but that's hardly his fault and he comes to Prestbury Park with an unblemished chasing record. Last year, I foolishly took him on in the Arkle but I certainly won't be clicking the pink button on the machine today. To drum up a few quid, bookmakers have specials in the 'betting without Sprinter Sacre' markets and I wouldn't put anyone off Sizing Europe or Wishful Thinking if you are thinking of having a play but for me, it's one of those races to savour and enjoy without a penny leaving the wallet. In the RSA Chase, (2.40), Ruby Walsh has picked Paul Nicholls' Unioniste over Willie Mullins' Boston Bob but I hope the Kill native lives to regret that decision and the latter looks a decent bet around 11/4. Both trainers have good records in the race and while it's far from a simple match race, I'm expecting both horses to be battling it out in the final stages. A very smart hurdler, Boston Bob has plenty of stamina to see out the trip and I suspect he'll make a very good chaser in the seasons to come. At times, he appears workmanlike but he gets the job done and it's hard to pick holes in his chase form. Unioniste is not dismissed easily although I can't say I'm entirely convinced by his latest win in a Novice Chase at Newbury at the expense of Hadrian's Approach. It was a messy affair where he needed to go all out for the win, having being less than fluent over the seventh fence. There's not much separating the pair and I actually think this could turn out to be the best race of the day.

STAT ATTACK
WITH British, Irish and French form to assess, chief handicapper Phil Smith has said that the Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle (4.40) is one of the hardest races of the year to rate and the race has thrown up quite a few unexpected results since it was established in 2005. Fitness is essential it seems, and seven of the eight winners had raced in the previous 25 days. Backers of the likely favourite Saphir Du Rheu may find that statistic a little unsettling as the Paul Nicholls trained gelding hasn't been seen since winning a novice hurdle at Taunton on 7th January. 

LAY OF THE DAY
ON official ratings, there's only 1lb separating Back In Focus and Tofino Bay in the John Oaksey National Hunt Chase (1.30) yet the former is trading around 11/4 and the latter is expected go off at a double figure price. While Back In Focus is respected, a case could be made for a number of others including Rival D'estruval, Godsmejudge and Hawkes and I suspect this race will be closer than the market suggests. At the prices, Back In Focus is opposable today.

RACE-BY-RACE GUIDE
1.30
Nina Carberry can get backers off to a good start on board Tofino Bay at 10/1. He was below par at Navan last time but he's expected to stay the extra distance this afternoon.
2.05
Willie Mullins' Pont Alexandre looks a fantastic prospect and at 6/4, the Grade One winner can follow up his latest impressive victory at Leopardstown.
2.40
Despite the fact that Ruby Walsh has abandoned Boston Bob in favour of Unioniste, Boston Bob looks a stayer in the making and should be able to grind them down on the soft ground.
3.20
No need for a bet here. Sit back and enjoy the majestic Sprinter Sacre become racing's latest superstar.
4.00
A big-field handicap where stakes should be kept to a minimum. Black Thunder gets a token each-way vote at 20/1. He won a couple of novice hurdles last term and could have more to come before the handicapper catches up.
4.40
Some readers may remember Zamdy Man winning on the flat at Newmarket last summer. He's still learning the ropes as a hurdler but he's got plenty of scope for improvement and can be backed each-way at 20/1.
5.15
With seven wins since the race was established in 1992, Willie Mullins' entries demand attention. But Tony Martin's Golantilla looked exceptionally good when storming home to win a bumper at Cork recently and the fact that Barry Connell paid €375,000 for the gelding says a lot. Early odds of 8/1 seem generous.

Cheltenham Festival betting 2013: Tuesday, day one

It's Christmas!!!

The best few days of the year are finally here. Day one is important for a lot of people with the Supreme Novice and Champion Hurdle. Then, of course, there's Simonsig. I risk looking like a right Wally but I've decided to oppose, reasons explained in today's Irish Independent article (see below). Have a good one and remember to pace yourself if you want to see out the four days.




MY TENT OR YOURS

FINANCIAL traders will be familiar with the term 'analysis paralysis' and it usually happens when a trader has too many indicators on his chart, some of which are telling him to buy a stock and some of which are telling him to sell. At this stage, I feel like that about Cheltenham and between formbooks, preview nights, magazines and jockey/trainer interviews, I've probably found a good reason to back every single runner this week. The more one seems to study, the harder it is to decide on what to back. Information overload can make the festival seem daunting but if you stick to what you've seen with your own eyes and back proven form horses rather than tips and whispers, you shouldn't go too far wrong. One horse we all seen hack up in the Betfair Hurdle last time was My Tent Or Yours and the six-year-old made a mockery of his mark of 149, beating some very good horses in the process. Yes, Supreme Novice hotpots do get turned over all time but the selection is definitely exceptional and he appears to have buckets of natural talent. He jumps well, he's proven in a big field and he has a high cruising speed so I don't think Tony McCoy will be left wanting as they turn for home and face the hill. This one looks the real deal and could be a Champion Hurdler in the making. Speaking of the Champion Hurdle (3.20) I'm going to sit on the fence somewhat and split my stake up to back both Hurricane Fly and Rock On Ruby at an overall price of even-money. I'm still quite worried about Zarkandar though so stakes will be kept to a minimum to keep the stress-levels down on day one. 

LAY OF THE DAY
A mate of mine has promised to buy me five pints of stout if Simonsig is beaten in the Arkle; a bold statement coming from a man who still has first Holy Communion money stashed away at home. The general consensus is that those of us opposing the seven-year-old need our heads examined but at 4/7, all the value is long gone and it is worth pointing out that layers would have shown a small profit opposing all horses priced even-money or less at the festival since 2006. He does look outstanding but let's not get too carried away with his two wins over fences as they were both in small fields with no real strong opposition. A dirty scope ruled him out of the Game Spirit so a lack of a prep race means he hasn't been seen since December 27th. In his hurdling career, he only came off the bridle once but he found little and was beaten fair and square by Fingal Bay. That's a while ago now but Overturn certainly won't go down easy and it will be interesting to see how Simonsig reacts if he's asked to fight for the race over a trip which might not be his optimum. 

STAT ATTACK
THE Philip Hobbs trained Rooster Booster (2003) became the first nine-year-old to win the Champion Hurdle since 1992 and generally speaking, older horses have a poor record in this race. While the number of older horses entered over the years hasn't been huge, it's noteworthy that only three aged older than eight have won since 1951. A worry for backers of Binocular, Hurricane Fly and Khyber Kim?

RACE-BY-RACE GUIDE
1.30
The festival curtain raiser has an awful habit of throwing up surprises and the last horse to win priced under 6/1 was Brave Inca in 2004 so caution is advised. However, My Tent Or Yours' performance in the Betfair Hurdle was outstanding and it's rare we see a novice easily dismiss some very good handicappers in that fashion. I'm struggling to find a reason to oppose at 13/8.
2.05
Nicky Henderson's Simonsig is the festival banker for many but his odds are restrictive and it might be worth looking elsewhere for better value. Overturn has looked a natural in his three unbeaten chase runs to date and if he goes off in front at a good clip as expected, he'll give Simonsig his toughest workout to date.
2.40
A tricky race where stakes should be kept fun-size. Pete The Fete came on in leaps and bounds this term but was showing the effects of a long campaign when pulled up at Kempton last time. He's had a few weeks to recover and gets a tentative each-way vote at 33/1 in places.
3.20
Rock On Ruby bids to become the first horse since Hardy Eustace to do the Champion Hurdle double while Hurricane Fly seeks to emulate Comedy Of Errors (1975) by regaining the crown he lost the previous year. Both have serious claims and dutching (backing both) the pair at an overall price of even-money should be considered.  Fifth in the race last year, Zarkandar is another one for the short-list.
4.00
Enda Bolger has had the winner or runner-up of this race in seven of the last eight renewals. The race went to Philip Hobbs' Balthazar King last year but Bolger's Arabella Boy can reclaim it for the Irish in 2013 with Nina Carberry on board, priced around 7/2.
4.40
Willie Mullins' Quevega is impossible to oppose as she goes for her fifth win in this race. The last horse to win five consecutive festival races was Golden Miller (1932-1936 Gold Cups) but this high class mare is in a league of her own. With 21lbs in hand on official ratings, she should win with ease.
5.15
Gordon Elliott knows how to raid a prize and CD winner Carlito Brigante is respected. However, Venetia Williams Shangani is on an upward curve at the moment with recent handicap wins at Sandown at Catterick. He may have a bit more to come before the handicapper catches up and odds of 8/1 or thereabouts have each-way appeal.