Trading software

Thursday, March 7, 2013

Bet number 100

A win yesterday on the favourites strategy - that brings the total number of bets to 99 so today is the last bet of the 100 bet trial. Should be priced around even money:

3.15 Carlisle - Witness In Court
Irish point winner who emphatically got it right on second hurdles start when a 22-length winner at Sedgefield in December. Better form in defeat in a hot 3m novice latest, and wisely back in trip.

After 99 bets, I've had 47 winners (47.47%) and shown a profit of €130.80 to a €10 stake. Bets were recorded to Betfair SP and deduct the maximum 5% commission.

I guess a 13.21% return on investment is very good (try asking the bank for that) and at the start of the trial, I would have certainly settled for that. However, having had the profit up past €200 at one stage, I won't pretend I'm not a little disappointed by the decline. What to do next is the question. I had planned on hitting this with decent sized stakes should it prove profitable but the recent decline has hit my confidence somewhat and perhaps I should go for another while to get some more data under the belt. I'll have a think about it. The place betting on it is going OK so I'd like to test that a bit more.I guess I should be happy but my brain has created an anchor at €200 and it's hard to be happy if I'm not past that. Humans are strange beings - no pleasing us!

On a more positive note, I have another strategy I'm working on which focuses on bigger priced horses that has been working well. I've 14 winners from 96 bets on that for a profit of 21pts. But with a strike rate of less than 15%, the losing runs are long and sometimes confidence sapping.

On the financial trading front, I haven't been doing much lately as I've had a lot of work on and haven't been at the computer much. Really missing my iPhone now as I missed out on two decent trades in the past week which would have netted me about a ton. It's amazing how reliant we've become on technology and I must now admit that I really am a slave to it. One thing I don't miss though, is the urge to check facebook on my phone all the time. It's mostly just rubbish but there's always an urge through boredom to have a flick through. I hadn't been on facebook in a while and when I went on last night, I quickly got tired scrolling down through the same old stuff and I realise I'm not missing much really.

Speaking of facebook, the share price is back up above $27 having traded around $17 or $18 dollars near the end of last year. It's a decent recovery but nowhere near the IPO in the high thirties.

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