Trading software

Thursday, November 17, 2011

Update: racing tips, financial trading, Euro 2012, books on trading

Haven’t been online much this week so hence the lack of blogging but here’s a quick update of what’s been going on:

Form study
Going much better than expected. As mentioned, I’m putting the work in each morning and being very selective. The long term view is to get the free tipping site back up in running if I continue to be successful. So far, I’ve had 23 winners from 46 bets – the strike rate has been remarkably consistent around the 50pc mark. I’m very pleased with this win rate as the average price is 3.2 (Betfair SP). A price of 3.2 suggests that the horses should have a win rate of only 31pc so a win rate of 50pc is great. The profit to a €10 stake is €179.90. The longest sequence of winners was seven in-a-row and the longest sequence of losers was 3 in-a-row. I don’t want to get carried away, any high strike-rate strategy is bound to hit on nice winning streaks and that’s possibly what happened - although as the bank and the number of bets build, so does my confidence. If the profit to a tenner is anywhere between €250 to €300 when I’ve 100 bets under the belt, I’ll be a happy bunny. Just one bet for today (Rith Bob, 1.40 Wincanton) although the price will be short. 

Diploma in financial trading
Is going great – we are into week 6 and have covered tonnes of stuff. Really starting to form a view on things and the course was definitely worth the money. Some of the work we are doing really reinforces the idea that simplicity is often the key. Who was it that said KISS (keep it simple, stupid)? I think this principle is definitely worth thinking about in trading. Again, some of it is obvious – risk reward ratios, stop losses, not fighting the market, learning to live with a lot of small losses... It’s stuff most traders should know inside out but rarely follow. The course reinforces it all but also gives strategies and insights from traders that have been doing it for a living for donkeys years. 

The markets
Haven’t had the chance to trade Betfair in a while with work etc, and the evening racing now finished. I said I’d leave the poor all-weather stuff alone for a bit as I was losing money on it so I’ve done that. On the financials, I’ve been trading in small sums and also using the demo account. I’ll continue to do this until I’m finished the course as I still feel I’m learning all the time.  I’ve been mainly selling the euro and trying out some stuff we learned on the S&P on the course. I still have a fairly bearish view overall. I was probably moving a fair bit off my horse racing brief but in my Irish Independent ‘Betting Ring’ column on Saturday, I suggested that the Euro would fall a couple of cent against the dollar this week and it’s went from 1.37 to near 1.34. I’m happy about that – but my racing tips that week turned out to be donkeys! Ah well, ye win some and you lose some. 

Ireland soccer
Fantastic to see Ireland qualify for Euro 2012 and it kinda takes me back to the good old days of ‘Jacks Army’. Please God, we’ll have some good times in the summer – half thinking of going over for a match or two. 

Currently reading Mastering the trade by John F. Carter. I’m not far into it, just three chapters, but I can tell that this is a really excellent book. It’s very readable (which is rare in the trading genre!) and has plenty of real life examples and strategies. It’s good on the psychology of trading too which is of huge importance. Most trading books are hard work but this one is enjoyable to pick up. I recently finished God in the pits, confessions of a commodities trader by Mark Ritchie. It was a very interesting read (although it’s a good few years old) and mainly concentrates on how he is trying to lead a good (religious) life alongside his other life in the often murky world of trading. It’s very interesting although it’s more of a biography than a trading book.

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