Trading software

Monday, November 28, 2011

Driving, Euro trading, Betfair trading, Racing tips

As mentioned, I’m learning to drive and I’m quite proud of myself after yesterday. OK, it was only half a mile, but I drove down to the local train station and back, taking in some tight bends and a hill start along the way. This was my first time on the open road and while I was a little nervous, I felt a great buzz afterwards. I’m determined not to lose that bet with the missus and I think she’s getting worried! The car has a slow puncture though, so I’ll have to get that sorted today or tomorrow. I used to fix punctures years back when I worked in a garage so I should be able to do it myself. I’m going to try to keep up the driving as much as I can – even just small journeys but often will help.
With regard to the trading (financial markets), I’ve been staying away as I just can’t see any opportunities. No point in trying to trade for the sake of it. The Euro (versus USD) is a puzzle right now – there’s been bad news for most of the week but it has rallied strongly this morning (see picture below). At 7.45 am, we were down around 1.3282 but as I type, we are already up touching near 1.34. A good bounce trade if you can get it but I’m sitting it out for a bit as I’m finding it hard to trade. There’s rumour of a massive IMF loan being made available, mainly for Italy, but we’ll wait and see if that materialises.  
Haven’t really been trading on Betfair much – I’m working during the daytime and I decided to knock the evening all-weather on the head as I wasn’t making money on that. I hope to get back to it soon though and I’ve bought a new microphone as I’ve had a number of emails asking me if I’d make some more youtube videos. I’ve some time off over the Christmas and new year so I hope to clock up plenty of hours then – although I do want to actually go to some of Leopardstown (as I do every year). I’ve also had a few emails asked if I’d run a trading course for those that are trying to learn – I’ve no immediate plans to do so but it is something I might think about in the future. There could be a couple of bob in it if I got the right numbers – but when you start charging people for stuff, there comes a lot of responsibility and extra hassles. I’ll think about it after Christmas maybe but for now, it’s an idea that is being put on the long finger.
I was complaining about a bad run on the horses a few days back but I’ve had a good turnaround and hit six winners in-a-row with the form study stuff I’ve been doing. Funny how things can turn around quite quickly. Years back, I would panic during the bad spells and start changing things around. But when you start to fiddle with things, sometimes you  muddle the whole thing up and end up worse off. You have to prepare for the bad runs and take them on the chin. Likewise, you can’t let the good runs go to the head. Individual races don’t really matter too much – it’s all about grinding it out over the long term. I’m back over the 50% strike rate which is pleasing so fingers crossed, it continues to go well. As mentioned, I may re-establish the free tipping website in the future if these continue to be successful. I didn’t charge for the tips in the past but I used to make a nice couple of bob from affiliate links and also donations. I said I’d give it 100 bets before I started proofing again, just to make sure I could still make it pay, and also to make sure I could get up early every day and put in the graft! So far, I’ve had 31 wins from 61 bets and the profit to a ten euro stake is around €196. Generally speaking, I’ve been focusing on the shorter end of the market and the average Betfair SP is 3.32. I'm comfortable with this although the margins are tight. Sometimes there seems to be an obsession with punters trying to get ‘value’ bets at big prices but value can be found at all ends of the market and I don’t have any rules about what price I will or wont take. Some people won’t back odds-on for example but the only rule I follow is that the horse should have a better chance of winning (in my opinion) that the odds suggest. If so, then it’s a bet. I don't really understand the idea of not taking short prices. If a full strength Manchester United showed up to play the local pub team and someone offered you 10/11 on United, would you refuse as you don't back odds on? OK, it's a silly example but ye get the point. 
I got up early and done some work this morning and picked out two interesting ones – although I’m going to watch the market as I’m not 100% on either of them. In the 1.30 at Folkstone, Ohio Gol d looks like a good thing and my own ratings have him some 20lbs clear of the field. But 1/2 seems a little tight with some unexposed sorts in the field. Hmm, I’ll have to study this on a bit more.
In the 2.55 at Ffos Las, Azitone looks well ahead of the handicapper and by my reading of the form, she should win with plenty in hand. But I have reservations about this one too – I’ve been watching some of her races and she’s not what you would call genuine. Like most of the fairer sex (!), she’s  contrary and she only gives it her all when she feels like it. She’s currently trading around 11/10 and I think I’ll have to do a bit more work on this race too before I decide to back.So overall, I think caution is the theme for today.
Anyway, that’s enough rambling from me for now - best of luck with your punting, trading, or whatever else you get upto today.  

Euro/Dollar 15 minute chart:


  1. Did you see As Der Fer in the 3 miler at Ffos las won by 16L just had 50/1 e/w on betfred for Welsh National now down to 20/1 well worth a shout i reckon

  2. Just popped out to pick up my daughter from school so I missed that one Tony - will watch the replay and stick that one in the tracker, cheers.