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Friday, November 4, 2011

Betfair, Greece & trading the Euro/Dollar

Sorry folks, haven’t posted all that much lately, mainly because I haven’t been trading much.
On the Betfair front, I haven’t been around during the day as I’ve a lot on with work and most of the evening stuff has been crap. I’m finding it harder than ever to make money from the low quality all-weather meetings and I get the feeling that there’s not much non-trader money in the markets that can be picked up. The liquidity is low and you see the markets getting manipulated quite a bit so I’m thinking of quitting the poor quality evening stuff – or at least reduce stakes.
On the financial trading, I haven’t done much either as the markets have been mad with all the chaos over Greece. Good old George Papandreou really threw a grenade into the room when he said he’d have a referendum on the bailout!  Now he’s backtracked but you’d wonder what he was thinking all along.Whether you agree or disagree with the whole bailout thing, most sides would agree that they are all as mad as hatters.
I’ve been keeping an eye on the Euro against the USD on all of this and was a bit surprised that it didn’t drop a little further. For a good few weeks, it traded in a range from around 1.40 to 1.45 but then took a dive for the month of September. It recovered a bit in October but it’s too hard to predict at the moment and I reckon the best option is to go to cash right now and sit it out for a bit. At times like this, I like to go to my demo account - in that way, I’m continuing to trade (and keep on top of the markets) but not risking any money. There are other influencing factors of course but until the Greece (and possibly Italy!) thing settles, it could be choppy waters. As I type, we are at 1.38 or thereabouts. 

Managed to make  €320 day-trading the S&P 500 today with a bank of 20K.  Pity it was my demo!!

EUR/USD daily chart & my S&P trade.

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