Royal Ascot 2012, day one betting

Great to have some top notch racing back and kicking it all off is the world's best horse, Frankel:

He's impossible to oppose although there's no real point in backing at seven-to-one on either really so it's probably just one to watch and enjoy. I quite fancy Simenon each-way at 5pm although I don't think I'll get the price I want so may not have a bet.

I love the Royal festival and hopefully, the extra interest in Ascot will see more liquidity across all races in general. Up a couple of points on the inplay trades since I made some changes so I'm hoping for a good day on those:

With regard to the financial trading, I'm still bearish on the Euro. The markets rallied a little yesterday after the Greek elections but it still doesn't solve anything. Greece is still in a mess and Spain's bond yield is once again above the bailout seven percent level. There was a small rally today although that's probably because the FED will be making some noises tomorrow. Overall though, I think this is a bears market over the next few weeks.

Greek elections

The Euro held up reasonably well yesterday despite this weekend's Greek elections. It's around 1.266 against the dollar but I still think it's a sell on the rallies. The Greek election could actually end up being some sort of vote for them on the Euro so we'll watch with interest.

Not a great day of racing today with Royal Ascot just around the corner - looking forward to that.

Today's traditional back bet:

Today's inplay trades:

European Championships betting

Well, Ireland's Euro 2012 has come to an end, as expected. A few people are blaming Trap but the reality is that the players are not in the same league as the likes of Spain. They did their best and the results showed the gap between the teams. We can't really complain - if this were racing, it would be like Frankel taking on some middle of the road jobber horse that runs around Dunstall park every week. Time to take the Irish flags down and get the Dublin ones out - my first love.

My bet on the Netherlands looks down the drain at this stage but I'm thinking of dutching both Spain and Germany to win at an overall price of 4/5. Both look a different class. 

With regard to the running, I'm strongly thinking about doing the Dublin marathon in October. I'll have to get into training soon if I'm to do it as it is 26 miles long (42km). I've never done a marathon before but I can run long distances no bother so I think it would be a good challenge. It would give me a goal to work towards with my running and I might collect a few bob for charity along the way. I'll have a think about it over the next few days although I'm not underestimating how difficult it might be.

I'm going to avoid the financial markets today as it's just too unpredictable. We've Spain and the bonds issue and we also have the Greek elections. The anti-bailout party there is making ground and anything could happen. I'm going to wait until next week to see what way the breeze is blowing.

Today's traditional back bets:

Today's inplay trades:

Spain and the Euro, the price of gold

No, not the football tonight where where we need a miracle - I'm talking about the financial markets.

The package Spain got has had no positive impact it seems, and their borrowing costs rose above seven percent in the past 24 hours. This is bailout territory, there's no getting away from it. But we can't just keep bailing everyone out, something's gotta give.

For now, I'm selling the Euro again and keeping my stop losses tight enough. We've also the Greek elections to think about so it could be a bit of a mad time for a while.

I bought a small bit of gold some time back at $1555 an ounce and that decision proved a good one. It's now trading around $1620 so I've moved my stop loss to $1600 and I'll just let it run. As usual, I'm kicking myself I didn't buy more! I only went in with small change but still, it's good to be in profit.

I didn't get a chance to have a look at horseracing today so no bets.

Gold rise over the past few days:

Wednesday

Not a bad day yesterday - the inplay trades had two wins and one level while the regular back bet was a non-runner.

A couple for today...


Back bets:

Inplay trades:

Review

As discussed in earlier posts, I've been through my betting and trading records with a fine tooth comb so a couple of small changes are in order.

Form study bets:
I don't think I'm doing too much wrong here although I've made one or two minor tweaks and excluded certain races. I'll keep recording and see how it goes. It's still in profit but has lost some money in recent months. One bet on that today:

Inplay trades:
The inplay trades proved interesting to look at. The Irish bets, it seems, are not proving profitable. I reckon that there is too little liquidity in these markets in-running for the strategy to work properly. This brings me on to liquidity in general - I've decided to keep an eye on the class of the race too. If I'm correct, the higher class races should have a better strike rate than those that have little liquidity. Have a look at these charts:

Here's the general in-running trades charts including all UK and Irish bets (backing with a €10 stake and laying off with €20 in-running at half the Betfair SP). You can see how it rose up and fell back down again:

Next, this chart shows the Irish only bets. You can see that they are losers overall, despite going into profit early on:

Finally, this chart shows the UK trades only. It has dropped a little in recent times but it's still a good deal healthier than the first chart:

So from here on in, the Irish trades will be excluded. I'll also keep a keen eye on the race quality to see if the better races return more profit.

I've a couple for today:

Hopefully this will give a little shot in the arm but I'll keep on monitoring it. As regards the dutching, I'm still doing that at home - it's not setting the world on fire but it's ticking away and the data is building.

 Best of luck with your trading and betting.

Take some time to read this

I've been made aware of a blog which is well worth reading. It's by a man who is trying to recover from gambling. 

http://betfair2ga.blogspot.ie

This seems like a genuine attempt by someone to get his life back on track. Gambling addiction is a very serious issue and perhaps it is glossed over by some of us involved in the industry. 

As a newspaper tipster, I often feel quite odd about my losing selections. I often wonder did someone put their last few quid on my tip and go home to the wife with nothing. 

While we all must make our own choices, those of us who 'promote' gambling in any way must also listen out for the people on the other end of it. 

A few years ago, someone I knew lost everything he had through gambling including his family. Like alcohol, gambling can be one of the most destructive things you can do if you can't moderate it or quit. Actually, it's arguable that it is more dangerous than drink because there are only so many Euros or Pounds a man can spend in one day on alcohol. The amount one can spend on gambling has no limit. 

Anyway, I wish the author well - it's great that he has faced up to the mess he has created. No matter how much he owes, no matter how much shit he is in, it is great that he's decided to face it. 

Have a read - it might inspire some others that are having problems. I always find that writing is very therapeutic. I hope the author keeps up the blog and that it acts as some sort of channel for his energy. 

Fair play to him, facing up to something like this is a massive thing in life.