Good weekend

Haven’t posted for a while as I was away in Carlow at a cousin’s wedding this weekend so I wasn’t online much.
 
Well, what can one say about Frankel in the 2,000 Guineas on Saturday eh? Fantastic stuff! It normally bugs me when people call a horse a ‘cert’ in racing but I’ve been banging on about this one for quite some time and it was one of those occasions where he was still massive value, even though he was odds-on. I had a nice few ton on him (done it the old way with cash in the bookies) which paid for my hotel for the weekend. I had a brilliant time at the wedding, and to top it off, Dublin’s hurlers win the league – what more could a man ask for!
 
Didn’t get much sports trading done obviously but elsewhere, I went short on gold twice last week – once when it hit $1534 and again when it hit $1547. I’m actually still keen on gold long term but I just thought it was extending a little too wildly and predicted that people would take some profit. Then, all this craic with Osama Bin Laden kicks off and I was unsure how the markets would react (if they were even going to react to that event at all). Today, gold dropped a fair few points back down (I don’t think it was related though) and I got a little nervous and sold out. I could have got out for a profit at one stage but waited a bit too long and the price started recovering. Overall, I lost about a pony (€25) on the trade but I was glad to get out without too much damage as it’s all a little uncertain at the moment, and to be honest, I haven’t been keeping on top of the news wires etc with Easter holidays and bank holidays and what not.
 
I’ve been waiting to get back in on gold for some time and being honest with myself, I’ve missed some cracking opportunities trying to wait for the ‘right’ moment. In some ways, there never really is a ‘right’ price. There’s just prices!
But that said, my records show that gold has been (by far) my best commodity for trading so it’s something I want to keep on top of and it’s something I enjoy holding.
 
Not sure what price I’d like to get in at again, I’m going to wait for a boring non-news week sometime and sit down and give it more thought and study and see where I’m going with it.
 
On the racing front, we’ve Punchestown this week and it’s normally something I spend a few days at. This year however, I’m a bit tied up with work and don’t want to take any more time off. I’ve pretty much taken all of August off so I can go to Canada with the family then spend a week in Gran Canaria with some mates too – so I’ll have to clock in some hours in the 9-5 as it will be an expensive couple of weeks! Hopefully, I’ll get to watch some of Punchestown on the box – it feels weird not being there and there’s some cracking races on the cards. I don't really have any real strong opinions on it as I haven't really spend much time studying the cards - I'll just watch as much of it as I can and make some notes at the end - don't think I'll do much betting though.

Turning over your money

I've often mentioned how important it is to turn as much money as possible over through Betfair - although when I say that, I mean try do as many quality trades as possible, rather than trading for the sake of it.

Sometimes, the amount one can turnover is quite astonishing - even with a small bank. Peter Webb sums it all up well in a good post on his blog. This is well worth a read:

http://www.betangel.com/blog_wp/2011/04/24/gambling-millions/

Give me five minutes with somebody and I can teach you how to put through enormous sums through a market at relatively little risk, you wont make or lose much, but you will be able to say that you gambled millions that day, an impressive feat; or is it?
I have often been misquoted, especially when it comes to numbers. But one thing that is fairly certain in the modern betting age, is that racking up bets in the millions is actually quite an achievable feat, even for a novice. Sometimes this has been put up as a negative, that people are using exchanges for ‘serious’ activity. But the reality couldn’t be more stark, lets have a look at the real deal behind the numbers.
Lots of products exist out there now for putting bets on while you are busy doing something else. We have two very useful tools in Bet Angel, Guardian, the multi market, auto switching tool and Excel spreadsheet integration. Using these two tools you can set up Bet Angel to places bets in your absense and it will happily chug away to your exacting criteria all day and night.
One of the huge draws to betting exchanges is the small overound on the book. In the bad old days bookmakers could print money by maintaining a super high over round. This ensured even given a bad run that they would end ahead. On exchanges the book is very very close to break even and with each year that passes it gets even closer. The hurdle to profitability is actually very small now. To jump that hurdle and make it worth while you need to do things.
First, you need an edge, even a very small one will do nowadays. Your edge could be timing, selection based, system based, logic, psychology; there are many. For example, a strong winning run in a sports events leads gamblers to often assume that the chance of something happening is more likely. Value is often created at this exact point for the opposing reason. Your edge can be quite small now and still be profitable thanks to exchanges. Once you have found your edge you need to exploit it with money, but the contradiction on exchanges is that while the hurdle is small, the market is very efficient and therefore any edge is also very, very small.
So the answer is to put lots of money through the markets to magnify any edge you have.  Tomorrow, a public holiday in the UK, we have ten race meetings and total over 60 horse races. If you put through a £100 bet on each race you would place in total £6000 in just one day! Of course you only need a tiny bank to do this as each race starts and finishes quickly (excluding races that clash). Increase this amount to £1000 and you would put through £60k in one day. Is this realistic?
This is where betting on the volatility of odds really comes into its own. If you don’t want to risk £1000 in one shot you can break it up into chunks of say £100 or ten lots to reach your £1000 in bets. If we took the low assumption of just 10,000 races a year on average, your £1000 per race would scale up to the astonishing sum of £10m a year in gambles. Even a tiny, tiny edge on £10m can make things a worthwhile endeavour, all this with a tiny bank. On the flip side though, I should point out that if you don’t have an edge then your bank will disappear in double quick time as that negative edge multiples on the downside. When people talk about an edge, the image that springs to my mind is a cliff edge. To make money in the long term in any market you need to know where the edge is without falling off it!
But, in summary, even using small amounts you can effectively leverage that into what seems fairly astonishing sums just by re-using it as often as you can. This allows you to earn good money even with a tiny edge.

External sites:

GOLD TURTLE TRADERS SYSTEM:  £200 STARTING BANK NOW £6,490

Still alive

Haven’t updated in a while so I just thought I’d pop on and say hi.

 

I’ve been trying to spend a bit more time with my family in the evenings and weekends hence the lack of posting recently. But things are good generally although I’m not getting as much trading done as I’d like to.

 

I’ve been a bit busy with a few things – it was the wife’s 30^th birthday at the weekend – we had a great party with a DJ and all that lark - then I went to a Christening on Sunday so I wasn’t doing much in the way of punting.

 

This weekend, I’m thinking of bringing my daughter into the league final (Gaelic Football). She’s six and a half and it would be her first ever Dublin match. On the Easter Monday, we have the Irish Grand National at Fairyhouse and I’m half thinking of going to that too. I got free tickets from my local Ladbrokes shop which was grand – although I must admit, I went a few years ago and I wasn’t cracked about it. It was hard to get a drink and a bet on with the crowds and we ended up watching the big race on the screen. Although that was in the mad so-called Celtic Tiger days so I’d imagine the crowd might not be as big as it was in 2006. I’ll have a think about it, but I’d like to give it another try.

 

Regarding trading, gold has finally gone past $1,500 today. I had bought a small amount a few days ago at $1492 when the whole question of the USA not being able to pay its debts was raised. I sold at $1498 as I figured people would take their profits when the price hovered around $1500 and it might bounce back down.  But it broke through the barrier all the same and pushed up for a few points. How high will it go? It’s hard to say really – I didn’t think it would hit $1500 quite so quickly but it’s still staying strong. I think I’ll wait a couple of weeks before getting involved again just to see if it settles or whether this is another big breakout.

 

Meself and herself at her 30th:

 

Grand National

I haven't backed a National winner since 1990 (Mr Frisk) so I wouldn't be going mad with stakes today! However, it's a fantastic occasion and I'm looking forward to picking some horses out of the paper with my six-year-old daughter.   Great stuff!

Anyway, here's my Indo column for today:

http://www.independent.ie/sport/horse-racing/silver-by-nature-worth-shot-in-dark-2614782.html

Eleven grand - but not enough

Sold my Brent Crude Oil (May delivery)  for the Delta Index competition today which netted me over €11,000 - however, because I took a major hit on Platinum some weeks ago, it only brings me back to the 20K mark so it won't be near enough to climb the competition leaderboard. Still, I'm pretty happy to have made a good recovery and as always,  it's been a good learning experience.

In my other live accounts, I sold my gold a while back but I see it hit another all-time high today. I'm waiting to get back in on gold (probably should have already) as I still think it's one for long term growth despite the all-time highs it's hitting. When you consider inflation, it's not really all that high and with no real signs of the worldwide economies in the Western world settling down, I think it will remain a 'safe haven' for investors, for another while yet anyway.

I was waiting until it dropped to around $1400 before buying but perhaps I'll have to look at that again. Wonder will it hit $1500 before long?



Delta Index Oil trade:

A handy €57

I was writing for tomorrow's newspaper and also doing a few bits and bobs for Betfair so I didn't get to trade all of today's races. However, I did get 11 done and made €56.96 which is grand. Wasn't going mad with my stakes as I couldn't really give it my absolute attention but I still managed a clean sweep which is always a bonus.

Getting out of gold

Gold has been up and down lately – I bought a tiny amount  a few days ago at $1434.40 (just 20cent worth) but I was never quite happy for some reason and a few hours later, it was €30 in the red. But I held out for a recovery which happened yesterday and I sold at $1438.40.  Total profit: A whopping €8!!

Did you ever buy something and then regret it? That’s how I felt and I should have got out earlier although at least no damage is done to the account. I’m still keen on Gold long term though and will buy again soon when the price drops a little. 

On the bank shares, it has been quite interesting in the early trading: http://www.rte.ie/news/2011/0401/banks.html

Irish Life and Permanent were down nearly 70pc at one stage which is huge. Bank of Ireland seem to be doing OK and have recovered. At the time of writing, they can be bought at 30 cent – and although that still seems tiny compared to what they once were, it’s a big leap from 22 cent the other day. 

Latest Gold Trade: