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Wednesday, August 4, 2010

4th Aug 2010 - Big bets a signal for action?

Starting bank: €1,000 (beginning of May 2010)
Target for end August: €1,215.51
Today’s opening bank: €1,245.90
Today’s closing bank: €1,257.44
Today's profit: €11.54
Today's turnover: €2,411.14

I got in late (8.30pm) but I was keen to trade the last couple of races following a long break so I fired up the laptop and earned €11.54. I’m very pleased with this amount as I’ve been away for a while and I’m always cautious after a break.

One possible opportunity I’m going to look at further arose again this evening and I took advantage. There was an Irish race where there was just a few hundred on each side but someone put in a very big lay and took out quite a bit of money (around 3 ticks worth). While it makes sense that a big lay should help push out the price, I think people over-react when they see a big bet go in and they try get on the bandwagon.

Sure enough, the price kept drifting for about five ticks, but then levelled out and stalled for a moment. This moment seems to be a good point to back; as the market says “Hang on, let’s not get carried away - the horse has become a value price again”

If found that you can get a good one or two ticks (back then lay) as the price often drops back down just a little.

I’m going to try it out with small stakes each time I see it and make a note of my progress.

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