Monday

A couple of meetings cancelled today so two a couple of inplay trades:

Got my comeuppance

Done some trading yesterday and it wasn't going so well. Perhaps my mind wasn't on the job following some bad results or deep down I was doing some loss chasing - but whatever the reason, I committed a cardinal sin and let one of my trades go in-running with a big liability.

I'm raging with myself for doing it. It just goes to show that no matter how experienced you are, you are still susceptible to moments of madness.  

Unless you have  a clear strategy (like my inplay trades), going in-running is out and out gambling and I know deep down that it's Russian roulette.  Well the bullet was in my chamber yesterday and my account is now three and a half ton lighter. €361.05 to be exact:

Really pissed off with myself as I've been having a good few months and this was a stupid thing to do. That's what happens when you play games and I have to take it like a man I guess!


Just two bets for the inplay trading strategy for today. Best of luck with your betting/trading:

Fighting back?

I haven't mentioned the form study bets in a while but I'm still getting up early each morning and going through the form and trying to pick some good bets. At one point, it was around 30pts ahead and had a fantastic start. Then it all went arseways and dropped down to about 4pts profit. It's picked up again and I'm now around 15pts profit (see chart).  Not where I thought I'd be after around 250 bets but that's the way the cookie crumbles. At least it's not in the red I suppose and I'm looking forward to seeing how I perform when the flat season kicks in proper .

Two from two on the inplay trades yesterday so I'm happy with that. I've a few for today, pictured below the chart. 

Best of luck with your betting/trading today.

Friday

Rushing out to bring my daughter to school so no time for a write up. Two inplay trades for today:

Interesting

I've been going through my records on the inplay trades and one thing I've noticed is that horses priced above 10/1 tend to be more successful for my strategy than those priced under 10/1.

Regular readers will know that I try to back certain horses at Betfair SP then lay them off at 50pc of their price in-running. Have a look at the below charts - the first shows how the strategy performs to a €10 stake on my horses priced below 11.0 and the second shows how my strategy performs on horses priced above 11.0:

The horses priced under 10.0 rise to €100 and comes crashing back down. The horses above 11.0 are a good deal steadier and it's those that have made me my profit.

Should I just stick with horses above 11.0 then? I'm not sure to be honest- there's not a huge amount of data to go on.

I'm aware that I could be 'backfitting' this too. Isn't it funny how we always look at our data looking for a fix during a bad run? During the good times, we always think "If it's not broke, don't fix it". Perhaps a better way would be to do a review after a set number of weeks or number of bets, rather than just when things are going arseways.

I don't like changing things without a reason so if I'm to come up with a theory as to why the shorter priced horses perform worst, it is this:

Horses at the shorter end of the market are analysed more - therefore, their running style is more likely to be priced into the odds already. With big priced horses, they don't get as much attention or analysis. Therefore, when they start to perform well mid race, it's often a surprise and in-running punters may get a bit over-excited.

I dunno, it's just a theory. As I say, not a lot of data to go on and I'm conscious of how punters often tinker with things during a poor run in haste. I'll keep plugging away as I am for now and perhaps take a look at this again.

Unfortunately, Punchestown is getting messed up because of the weather. It's a shame really as it's a meeting I love. Looking forward to today's Quevega vs Voler battle - I think the former may come out on top but both are top animals. Could be a good one.

Anyway, here's today's inplay trades:

Wednesday's in-running trades

No time for a write-up today as I'm rushing out to bring my daughter to school. A poor day yesterday with a 4pt loss.

Punchestown festival 2012, betting in-running

Normally, I take a week off for Punchestown and go down for a few days but for the first time in years, I won't be able to as I've too much on.  I'm a bit behind writing the book so I have to keep plugging away at that and I've a rake of other stuff on this week. Hopefully, I'll be able to watch most of it on the box.

Don't really have any strong fancies for today other than Sir Des Champs but at 1/4, I wouldn't win any awards for originality there!

The in-running trades had a break-even day yesterday and still hovers around the €280 mark. As you can see from the chart, it's certainly going well but I have this stupid niggling feeling where I'm not happy until it's back over the €300 mark. I know this is all in the mind and a couple of points here and there don't really matter but it's one of those psychological things that become hard to ignore.

It's gas, because at the start of the month, 1st April,  I was at €197 and had you offered me a 42% increase in the size of the bank by the 24th April I'd have bit your hand off. So I know I should be very happy with €280  but the fact that the bank was above €300 in the past tempers that joy somewhat. In an ideal world, the bank would be always hitting new highs but losing periods are inevitable, although knowing this doesn't make it easier.

It's a strange old thing the human brain eh?  Actually on that note, I'm thinking of doing an evening course in psychology in Trinity later this year. I done some psychology and also some sociology as part of my degree in UCD and loved it. They were only short courses but it sparked an interest. When it comes to trading/betting, I'm realising that psychology is far more important than any other factor

Anyway, here's the chart showing progress and below is Tuesday's inplay trades: