Galway Festival Betting 2012, day two, Tuesday

First of all; Galway.

Got out of jail with just a single winner in the last yesterday although anyone who chose to follow Dermot Weld as mentioned in the article would have been quids in. Disappointed overall so here's hoping for a better day today - once again I've an article in the Irish Independent:

HOW much importance one should give to previous winning course form when assessing a horse's chance is open to debate, but it's certainly not a hindrance to have the letter 'C' listed next to your selection on the racecard. And at places like Galway, it's good to know your horse has successfully found his way home in front before. Saint Gervais is the only one in the Topaz Novice Hurdle field (4.0) with wining form at Ballybrit; although it must be acknowledged that the race he won here was a bumper so it's probably stretching it a bit to call that piece of form significant. Still, there are plenty of other reasons to back the John Kiely trained gelding in the opener, not least of which was a very reasonable comeback run at Killarney mid-July following a break of twelve weeks. He never truly threatened the winner Keep It Cool, but as an exercise in shaking off cobwebs in preparation for the Festival, it served its purpose well. In April, he found success in a weak maiden at Clonmel but significantly, he was able to follow up that win with another victory in a fairly useful handicap at Cork before he took a break. The likes of Zuzka and He's Our Man are not ruled out with ease but I've a strong feeling that there's more to come from the selection and he can get punters off to a good start today at 3/1. Shortly after the Angelus bells have rung, Magical Dream is worth a speculative punt at Caulfieldindustrial.com European Breeders Fund Fillies Maiden (6.10). A daughter of Galileo, this filly went in my notebook as one to watch following an interesting debut in a fillies' maiden at Naas. Seamie Heffernan took the reins in what turned out to be a competitive affair won by outsider Viztoria, but a change of tactics by Joseph O'Brien today may help her cause. At Naas, Heffernan kept her off the pace early on but he soon found himself off the bridle and had to make up ground. In fairness, she made headway when asked and finished strongly and while I don't blame the jockey, perhaps a slightly more forceful ride by O'Brien might prove more effective today.

TODAY'S SELECTIONS

4.0 Saint Gervais
4.30 Devil's Elbow
5.0 Voleuse De Coeurs
5.35 Pintura
6.10 Magical Dream (nap)
6.40 Golden Shoe (e/w )
7.10 Hai

****

With regard to the form study bets, I've two for today. Here's what Timeform say about them:

6.10 Galway - Magical Dream
Well bred filly, dam 7f/1m (Matron/Lockinge Stakes) winner, out of useful performer up to 1m. In need of experience when third to Viztoria in maiden at Naas and looks sure to progress.
8.50 Worcester - The Sliotar
Winning hurdler/chaser who has been lightly raced in recent times. Pulled well clear with a handicap debutant at Southwell last week, and no doubting he's handicapped to strike with blinkers on.

***

I got stopped out on my EUR/USD trade so I only made a profit of €17.60 on that in the end:

Could've cashed out for a profit of over €40 at one stage so it's a bit of a bummer but profit is profit and it all adds up.

We could have a busy week on the markets  this week with the Fed having a meeting, and ECB meeting and the non-farm payrolls on Friday.

As I write, the Euro is 1.2262 against the dollar so it will be interesting to see where that will be by close of business Friday:

Best of luck with your trading/betting.

Galway Festival betting 2012 day one tips

The seven days of Galway are here again but we also have Glorious Goodwood too so it should be a busy week.

Unless you've been living under a rock, you should know by now that Dermot Weld is the man to watch and his record there is unrivalled. Here's the trainer's record at the Galway course since 2003 (not just the Festival). Stats are from Horse Race Base:

I've an article in the Irish Independent each day so here's today's fancies. Not very original of me in napping the O'Brien hotpot but I've a couple of others at decent prices:

Separate from my newspaper articles, I had been posting up some 'form study' bets over the past few months. Each morning, I get up early and go through the form books for bets. It was proving quite profitable at first but took a nosedive - although I've got my head back in front once again.

I stopped sticking them up here as I didn't know if anyone was bothered but since removing them, I've received a number of emails asked me to include them again - so I'll post them again from now on. I'm not making any promises on these though and if you follow, it's at your own risk. I've none for today but I guess now would be a good time to look at where they are at:

Basically, I've had 298 bets and 151 winners (51%). The average price (Betfair SP) has been 3.03. It's currently showing a profit of €129 to a €10 stake at BSP but at one stage, it was up to €310. The longest sequence of winners in-a-row was 9 and the longest sequence of losers was 6.

It's probably best illustrated by the chart:

As you can see, the profits flew up at first but then came crashing back down. Around bet number 289, you can see that I came back to break-even point. At this stage, I stopped betting for a while and reviewed all my records. I've since made some changes and we have lift off again but I've no idea if it will continue to be profitable so if you are following, do it with money you can afford to lose.

***

With regard to my trade where I bought the Euro, it's currently showing a profit of €22.00.  This strategy which I read in Mastering The Trade is new to me, hence the small 20c stake.

But pennies make pounds and I'm glad to make something out of the trade. My exit point uses the candlestick charts and is a two day trailing stop. So you can see from the chart, the lowest point on the candle two days ago was 1.2241 (I've drawn a line here). This is my stop loss and will be adjusted tomorrow where I'll use the next candle:

Anyway, I best be getting back to work so best of luck with your betting and trading for today.

Wayne

Trading the Euro currency

The EUR/USD trade I done yesterday is nicely in profit - I bought at 1.2153 and we are now trading around 1.2365. Good news then. But the bad news is that my stake was tiny at 20c so that means my current profit is only €42.40 on the trade. But it was never meant to be a big stakes trade so I'm happy enough with how it is going and if I bank even a pony (€25) by the end of it, that's fine. Pennies make pounds and I'm in no rush. 

Open trade:

My get out strategy is based on the candlestick charts and will use a two-day trailing stop. It's kinda hard to explain as I haven't yet been in the trade two days but tomorrow, my stop loss will be moved to yesterday's lowest wick on the candle. Then the day after, today's lowest wick will be the get out point and so on.

EUR/USD daily chart as of 3.10pm today:

Forex trading EUR/USD, Marathon running training

I've just bought the Euro against the dollar at at 1.2153 with a stop loss at 1.2042.

No, I haven't changed my long-term view on the currency and I'm still not too keen on it but in the shorter term, I think we've come to the end of a little bear run and we may see a small bounce. This is a new strategy I'm trying and it's based on something I read in this book:  Mastering the Trade, Second Edition: Proven Techniques for Profiting from Intraday and Swing Trading Setups.
7
Only using small stakes - I'll see how it goes and report back when I'm stopped out or when I take my profits.

Sometimes it's hard to back against your macro view (mine is that the Euro will slide further) with a micro view bet and it somehow feels wrong for me to back the Euro right now but nothing goes down in a straight line and good traders should be able to take advantage of the ups and downs along the way - even if the overall trend is down. Separating my macro view from my short-term trades is something I'm working on doing and I'm implementing some strategies to help me.

EUR/USD daily chart:

***

I went for a 24km run last night as part of my marathon training - once again, my knees are in bits but not as bad as the last time which is encouraging. I've been having a look and it seems I should be doing some ITB stretching for this so I'm going to check that out.

I always stick on a non-fiction audiobook while I'm running which is a great way to learn a few things for the couple of hours that I'm out.

Marathon training

Going to attempt a half-marathon again tomorrow - the last day I tried I did it but I was absolutely wrecked and, foolishly, hadn't done a warm-up. I'm going to be a bit more prepared tomorrow and I'll see how it goes.

On a similar note, I got my hands on the Insanity workout programme. A friend is doing it and is loving it although it is sixty damn hard days of training.  I'd like to try it - I have it on my 'to do before Christmas' list:

http://www.amazon.co.uk/Insanity-Ultimate-Workout-Fitness-Program/dp/B002QZ1RS6/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1343128908&sr=8-1

The King George VI & Queen Elizabeth II Stakes at Ascot

Looking forward to this one - I backed Danedream each-way and put him in today's Independent. Looks like a cracking race. Not a bad weekend of sport with a Dublin v Meath Leinster Final tomorrow - still not sure if I'll go in or not.

2011 Arc winner Danedream:

http://www.independent.ie/sport/horse-racing/danedream-set-to-score-for-germans-3174913.html



DANEDREAM TO SCORE FOR GERMANS

SHE initially had problems with her public image, but during World War II, the Queen consort Elizabeth (or the Queen Mother as she was later known) gained respect for standing up to the Germans alongside her husband, King George VI, when she refused to leave London during the blitz.
"The children won't leave without me. I won't leave without the King -- and the King will never leave," she declared.
Interestingly, the race that carries both their names, The King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes (4.35 Ascot), has never been won by a German-trained horse (not that a huge number have contested it), but the Peter Schiergen-trained Danedream ticks all the right boxes to put that right.
This year's renewal is top notch, which partly explains why the Cologne-based selection is trading at a double-figure price on the exchanges and, while I don't underestimate the quality of the opposition, the 2011 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe winner risks being overlooked in the betting, with punters getting stuck into Nathanial and Sea Moon instead.
Drift
St Nicholas Abbey had been the ante-post favourite, but he went cold in the market and now trades around the 3/1 mark.
On Thursday, a mate who works in Ladbrokes assured me that there was no obvious reason for the drift in price, but, to be honest, I wasn't too keen on the five-year-old anyway, partly because he appears to have a preference for going left-handed and he also likes better ground.
Coral reported some reasonable sized bets for the son of Montjeu on Thursday and he may well be vying for favouritism if more money arrives.
Regarding Nathanial (5/2), I can't really say anything negative about last year's winner following a fine display in the Coral-Eclipse, although I wonder if that race -- his seasonal debut -- was a little tough on the colt and it should be noted that the gap between the Coral-Eclipse and the King George is a little shorter than normal this year.
Sea Moon (11/4) is still unbeaten in two starts this season and certainly has strong claims, but I have Danedream right up there with the market leaders on ability, so at the prices, she's an each way no-brainer for me. Last year's victory in Paris is by far her strongest form and, while she hasn't been running to that level this season, her fourth place of four runners in the Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud can be overlooked as the race lacked any pace due to the small field.
A competitive 10-runner field at Ascot will almost certainly see her improve and I wouldn't be at all surprised to see the prize money go back to Germany.
Another one to watch is the Japanese horse, Deep Brillante, which is generally available at 16/1.
He's already won over £2m and as the only three-year-old in the field, he gets a very handy 12lb weight allowance.
EACH-WAY OUTSIDER
At 16/1 and higher, Van Ellis is worth a shot in the Betfair Summer Double International Stakes at Ascot (3.55). Mark Johnston's colt had plenty in hand when winning a fairly strong handicap at Chester, but the handicapper has still left room for improvement and another strong run is expected.
TODAY'S SELECTIONS
2.10 Ascot: Tornado
3.10 Newmarket: Bible Belt
3.55 Ascot: Van Ellis (e/w)
4.35 Ascot: Danedream (e/w)

So what have I missed?

My first post in over two weeks. Had a really nice holiday down in Kilkee - the weather was terrible but we were expecting that so we made the most of it anyway. Sadly, I had to cut the trip a little short due to a death in the family.

I didn't get to watch much racing so I've mountains of stuff to catch up on. Similarly, I've a lot to catch up on in the financial markets so I'm just going to spend the next couple of days getting back to grips with things.

I see the Fed Chairman is to speak tonight - will he announce QE3? That will send the markets moving so it could be choppy today in anticipation of a move either way. Having been away from the markets, I think I'll take a watching brief for today.

***

Ben Bernanke - will he send the markets up or down later?

Kit Kat time

Summer holidays are here and it's time to take a break.

This year, we are staying in Ireland on holidays so here's hoping the weather holds up. I've a few days of work left and I'll have an article to do for the Indo this weekend but then we are heading to Kilkee with family and friends. Can't wait - even though we are not doing anything extravagant, it's going to be great to take some time out to relax. We will have the cars with us so if it pisses rain, we can always head to places like Galway and Limerick for stuff to do other than the beach.

 As I say, I've some bits and pieces to do before I got but I'll be taking a break from the daily racing and trading from now so this will probably be my last post for a fortnight or so.

With regard to the running, I'm hoping to do 20K today when the missus gets back from work. I often download some non-fiction audiobooks to listen to while I'm running and I find this a great way to take my mind off the exercise and also educate myself a little while I'm at it. 

Ciao!

Kilkee horse-shoe shaped beach: