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Monday, July 30, 2012

Galway Festival betting 2012 day one tips

The seven days of Galway are here again but we also have Glorious Goodwood too so it should be a busy week.

Unless you've been living under a rock, you should know by now that Dermot Weld is the man to watch and his record there is unrivalled. Here's the trainer's record at the Galway course since 2003 (not just the Festival). Stats are from Horse Race Base:

I've an article in the Irish Independent each day so here's today's fancies. Not very original of me in napping the O'Brien hotpot but I've a couple of others at decent prices:

Separate from my newspaper articles, I had been posting up some 'form study' bets over the past few months. Each morning, I get up early and go through the form books for bets. It was proving quite profitable at first but took a nosedive - although I've got my head back in front once again.

I stopped sticking them up here as I didn't know if anyone was bothered but since removing them, I've received a number of emails asked me to include them again - so I'll post them again from now on. I'm not making any promises on these though and if you follow, it's at your own risk. I've none for today but I guess now would be a good time to look at where they are at:

Basically, I've had 298 bets and 151 winners (51%). The average price (Betfair SP) has been 3.03. It's currently showing a profit of €129 to a €10 stake at BSP but at one stage, it was up to €310. The longest sequence of winners in-a-row was 9 and the longest sequence of losers was 6.

It's probably best illustrated by the chart:

As you can see, the profits flew up at first but then came crashing back down. Around bet number 289, you can see that I came back to break-even point. At this stage, I stopped betting for a while and reviewed all my records. I've since made some changes and we have lift off again but I've no idea if it will continue to be profitable so if you are following, do it with money you can afford to lose.


With regard to my trade where I bought the Euro, it's currently showing a profit of €22.00.  This strategy which I read in Mastering The Trade is new to me, hence the small 20c stake.

But pennies make pounds and I'm glad to make something out of the trade. My exit point uses the candlestick charts and is a two day trailing stop. So you can see from the chart, the lowest point on the candle two days ago was 1.2241 (I've drawn a line here). This is my stop loss and will be adjusted tomorrow where I'll use the next candle:

Anyway, I best be getting back to work so best of luck with your betting and trading for today.


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