Crazy scenes on Betfair

From Scott Ferguson's blog  - some major screw up somewhere. Have a look at this:

http://www.sportismadeforbetting.com/2011/12/its-all-gone-pete-tong-at-betfair.html

Winner alright, winner alright

Drove to Dún Laoghaire and beyond in the car yesterday and won the €150. Happy days!

Learning to drive

Haven't been out and about in the car as much as I wanted to but I still have a week to win the bet with the missus.

She's driving years and thought I'd never bother to learn so a few weeks ago, we struck a €150 bet that I'd drive down to her work before Christmas and pick her up and drive home.

She works in Dún Laoghaire which is a busy town so it could be tricky as I've only ever drove on quiet roads on Sundays - but I'm going to kick on this week with plenty of practice. The car is big enough (Mitsubishi Lancer) so it's a little tricky to get used to compared to the motorbike but I'm really enjoying learning.

It would be a nice couple of bob to have for Leopardstown if I win the bet ;-)

Betting wise, I had a good day yesterday for the Irish Independent with a 12/1 winner (Raya Star). I'm pretty chuffed about that as I think I've had around 4 or 5 profitable weekends in a row at this stage. I consider myself a better punter on the flat but I've been doing quite good at this time of the year on the jumps.I'd been going through a rough patch for a while late summer so some nice priced winners are most welcome, especially at this time of the year.

Don't think I'll get to trade today on Betfair as I want to get out driving when I'm done my form study. Nearly done but there's nothing standing out so I might have a blank day on the betting front.

The car:

Nearly there

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As mentioned a few times, I’ve been getting up at six every morning to put in some good old form study work. It’s been tough to do but I’m getting loads done in the extra few hours in the morning and I’m going to keep it up. I don’t find a bet every day but I thought I’d track my progress and see how I get on over 100 bets and whether or not I can make the midweek stuff pay anymore. I’m half thinking of getting the tipping site going again as I used to make a few bob from it (I didn’t charge – I made money from donations and affiliate links) and so I may start proofing the bets again. 

Still have some things to think about but my 100 bet trial is close to an end as it’s gone well thankfully. There’s a picture below showing the progress on a chart, but here’s the basics:

Bets: 91
Wins: 50
Strike Rate: 55%
ROI: 32.72%
Average Betfair SP: 3.04
Longest sequence of winners in a row: 7
Longest sequence of losers in a row: 5
Profit to €10 stake at Betfair SP: €301

I’m delighted with this as I’m happy to operate at the lower end of the market price wise, and it suggests that money can be made on the shorter ones. The average price has been around 2/1. Short prices are nice in that you get plenty of feel good winning streaks - although the downside of course is that a losing streak can take time to recover from. 

Before I decide if I’ll start posting up my bets again, I’ve some stuff to do/think about. First of all, my site is lying idle for ages and needs a cleanup and a revamp. Second, I’ve to decide on a staking plan – the above is recorded to level stakes which is the best way to do a trial – but in reality, some sort of ratchet plan using  a percentage of the bank would yield a better return. 

Of course, all of the above assumes I’m going to remain profitable – I’m not stupid enough to take that as a given though. Things change all the time and a bad run can be just around the corner. Who knows, my next sequence of 100 bets cold hit plenty of losers and bad luck and may not pay – but I’ll plug ahead anyway and see how we go. Just one bet today, Pride Of the Artic at 2.35 Gowran - but this is a tricky and I have my reservations so please don't take that as a tip or anything.

With regard to trading the financials, the markets are not buying this Euro deal at all and we’ve finally dropped into the 1.20s with the Euro against the dollar. To be honest, I think they are all a bunch of morons – they brought even more uncertainty to the markets with this ‘plan’ just before the Christmas break.

It’s also looking increasingly likely that there may need to be a referendum on the deal in Ireland. Would it pass? I’m not so sure. People are tired of Europe, tired of politics, and tired of being broke. Remember the posters for the Lisbon treaty and the Nice treaty?    “Lisbon equals jobs, vote yes”   .... “Nice equals jobs, vote yes” . 

People were told that if they voted no, they would endanger the economy. So they voted yes. But where did it get us. Where the fuck are the promised jobs?  They may have a hard time selling this as the two other treaties didn’t deliver on what they promised, mainly jobs. 

Plus the idea of a financial tax in Europe but not Britain could damage us badly. Why would anyone stay in Dublin getting taxed out of it when they could just pop across to the city in London to do business without the tax?

Anyway, it’s a bit silly of the Irish government to be coming out scare mongering already telling us to vote yes – when the bloody content of the deal hasn’t even been agreed yet!

The economy is a mess either way so I don’t know that a yes or a no vote on this would change that. I dunno, you really can’t trust anyone with your money these days, can ye?

Progress on the form study so far:

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Euro down & in-running madness on Betfair

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Well, the markets are not really buying this new Eurozone deal it seems and as some suspected, it’s really just another small plaster on an open wound. It gets them a little more time but it’s not a real solution to be honest and I’m not so sure a referendum would pass in countries like Ireland should it arise.  Where do we go from here? It’s hard to say. After a day of falling slowly yesterday, traders have taken a bearish view of the currency against the dollar and as I type, we are now down to the 1.30s. 

From memory, we haven’t traded this low since January and you’d have to wonder if it will continue to slide should it break into the 1.20s.

On Betfair, there was in-running madness, joy - and carnage for some at Catterick today:

The winner Dystonia’s Revenge traded at the maximum odds of 1000 (999-1) on Betfair; €36 matched at that price.

Runner-up Eighteen Carat (caught close home) traded at the minimum odds of 1.01 (1-100).
Quel Ballistic (hampered and unseated 2 out) traded at 1.11 (1-9).
Faller Corkage (8 lengths clear when falling 2 out) traded at 1.15 (1-7).
Third-place Definite Appeal traded at 1.48 (just over 4-9).

Wonder how many banks were boosted/busted on that one!


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Tricky times

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It's been a funny week in the financials with everyone waiting on the big EU summit on Friday. It's kinda exciting to see which way it's all gonna go and it no matter what 'side' you are on, at least it's starting to finally come to a head. There's been a lot of uncertainty and I find it difficult to trade so hopefully by the new year we will at least know where we stand.

Regarding Betfair, the Irish government has announced in the budget that they plan to tax betting exchanges. How this will work remains to be seen and it seems very hard to police. There have been announcements on this before and nothing has happened so I'll see what happens over the next few weeks before I worry too much about it.

Anyway, I'll leave you all with this picture. Ciao!

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A good month

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November 2011 is now gone forever and were into a new month. November was pretty good and I’m very pleased with how the form study has been going (the screenshot shows the last 30 bets or so). As you can see, I’ve now got 70 bets under the belt and the profit to a tenner is €243.10.  I’m still going to wait until I’ve got 100 bets under the belt before posting these on my site and putting decent money on. You can’t help thinking that a ton on each would have yielded a profit of well over two large by now but I’m trying not to think that way as you can get cocky and carried away. As you can see, I record quite a bit about each selection (most of it will only make sense to me) so over time, I can filter out what is or isn’t working. 

Again, I don’t want to get too cocky and it’s possible that I just hit a streak of luck but the more bets I get under the belt, the more my confidence grows. It hasn’t been easy though – I’m up at six in the morning most days now and by the time 9pm comes around, I’m knackered. 

But getting up at six has also helped my financial trading and the couple of hours I get in the morning before I bring my daughter to school is a great time to get stuff done. It's nice a peaceful and quiet and I've found that I enjoy working away while everyone is still in bed.  I’ve been trying out some new strategies in the financial market s and so far, I’m churning a small profit. Again, I’ll wait some time before going at it with big stakes as I want to get into a routine. 

One of the lads asked me down for poker tonight and I would have loved to go as I haven’t played in ages. However, I promised my daughter I’d watch the Late Late toy show with her later so I guess I gotta stick to my word! Like many Irish homes, staying up late for the Toyshow was a big tradition in my house each year and it's good to do it now with my own family. We might get to play poker tomorrow though, so I’ll see how it goes.

November was also a good month for my Irish Independent column so I’m pleased about that. I had hit a poor spell for a while but as the National Hunt form starts to bed down a bit, it’s getting a little easier. I’m going to go with Sizing Europe in the tingle creek but it’s a tricky race and it won’t be easy to win. 

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