Trading software

Thursday, December 15, 2011

Nearly there

As mentioned a few times, I’ve been getting up at six every morning to put in some good old form study work. It’s been tough to do but I’m getting loads done in the extra few hours in the morning and I’m going to keep it up. I don’t find a bet every day but I thought I’d track my progress and see how I get on over 100 bets and whether or not I can make the midweek stuff pay anymore. I’m half thinking of getting the tipping site going again as I used to make a few bob from it (I didn’t charge – I made money from donations and affiliate links) and so I may start proofing the bets again. 

Still have some things to think about but my 100 bet trial is close to an end as it’s gone well thankfully. There’s a picture below showing the progress on a chart, but here’s the basics:

Bets: 91
Wins: 50
Strike Rate: 55%
ROI: 32.72%
Average Betfair SP: 3.04
Longest sequence of winners in a row: 7
Longest sequence of losers in a row: 5
Profit to €10 stake at Betfair SP: €301

I’m delighted with this as I’m happy to operate at the lower end of the market price wise, and it suggests that money can be made on the shorter ones. The average price has been around 2/1. Short prices are nice in that you get plenty of feel good winning streaks - although the downside of course is that a losing streak can take time to recover from. 

Before I decide if I’ll start posting up my bets again, I’ve some stuff to do/think about. First of all, my site is lying idle for ages and needs a cleanup and a revamp. Second, I’ve to decide on a staking plan – the above is recorded to level stakes which is the best way to do a trial – but in reality, some sort of ratchet plan using  a percentage of the bank would yield a better return. 

Of course, all of the above assumes I’m going to remain profitable – I’m not stupid enough to take that as a given though. Things change all the time and a bad run can be just around the corner. Who knows, my next sequence of 100 bets cold hit plenty of losers and bad luck and may not pay – but I’ll plug ahead anyway and see how we go. Just one bet today, Pride Of the Artic at 2.35 Gowran - but this is a tricky and I have my reservations so please don't take that as a tip or anything.

With regard to trading the financials, the markets are not buying this Euro deal at all and we’ve finally dropped into the 1.20s with the Euro against the dollar. To be honest, I think they are all a bunch of morons – they brought even more uncertainty to the markets with this ‘plan’ just before the Christmas break.
It’s also looking increasingly likely that there may need to be a referendum on the deal in Ireland. Would it pass? I’m not so sure. People are tired of Europe, tired of politics, and tired of being broke. Remember the posters for the Lisbon treaty and the Nice treaty?    “Lisbon equals jobs, vote yes”   .... “Nice equals jobs, vote yes” . 

People were told that if they voted no, they would endanger the economy. So they voted yes. But where did it get us. Where the fuck are the promised jobs?  They may have a hard time selling this as the two other treaties didn’t deliver on what they promised, mainly jobs. 

Plus the idea of a financial tax in Europe but not Britain could damage us badly. Why would anyone stay in Dublin getting taxed out of it when they could just pop across to the city in London to do business without the tax?

Anyway, it’s a bit silly of the Irish government to be coming out scare mongering already telling us to vote yes – when the bloody content of the deal hasn’t even been agreed yet!
The economy is a mess either way so I don’t know that a yes or a no vote on this would change that. I dunno, you really can’t trust anyone with your money these days, can ye?

Progress on the form study so far:


  1. Close win there in Gowran didn't do it myself as out of office. As for the Euro i see countries are already showing their doubt about the deal with Hungary Czech and Sweden unsure maybe Cameron done the right thing. Watch out in the 12:50 Ascot tomorrow my horse running minella Bliss :) not expecting a win lol just a good run gutted im missing it

  2. Good stuff Tony - best of luck - did yous own that one when it won in the summer? I think I remember seeing him around some courses in IReland. Not a huge fan of Cameron but I think he called this one right - especially the financial tax - I think that could be a bigger issue than people think.

  3. Yeah mate i was there when it won that was our 2nd race as owners i though Nicholls horse would hack up that day but Minella is a stayer and it showed, there are 10 of of us in syndicate. Since the win the handicapper put on 11lb but ran a good race last time out to finish 4th not expecting to be in top 3 tomorrow but he is there on merit so you never know