Two winners yesterday but nothing to write home about. A tricky enough card today with the highlight being The Galway Plate. JP McManus has a few horses entered and has a great record in this race. We also have the Sussex Stakes at Goodwood for which Kingman is very difficult to oppose. Plenty to look forward to today then - here's today's Irish Independent article:
RUM AND BUTTER
THE 20/1 which was widely available over the weekend for Alderwood to win
today's Galway Plate (5.30) has predictably been slashed since Tony McCoy opted
to ride the Tom Mullins trained ten-year-old. Now chalked up as low as 6/1 in
places, he's part of a seven-strong JP McManus contingent as the leading owner
attempts to win the race for the third year in-a-row. The heavily backed Carlingford
Lough was a very popular winner under McCoy last year at 7/2 and Alderwood will
surely raise the roof if the champion jockey gets him home ahead of all others
this evening. But I have my doubts over McCoy's choice, and have opted to back another
McManus horse, Rum And Butter, which
was available at 20/1 with a number of firms yesterday. Don't get me wrong, I
know I'm not qualified to question the champion jockey's decisions considering
the only time I've sat on a horse was when, at the age of six, my old man threw
me and the brother up on the back of a piebald in a housing estate in
Ballybrack. That ended with a split-head and a trip to Loughlinstown hospital
so it's somewhat surprising that I'm still interested in even watching the
animals today. But coming at it from a punter's point of view, which is my
brief here, it worries me that Alderwood hasn't been seen in 275 days when
finishing second-last in a Grade Three at Naas (having jumped poorly throughout).
Yes, he may be working well at home and connections know a lot more about the horse
than we do, but I still feel there's nothing like racecourse experience to prep
a horse well. To come back and win such a competitive affair after a big
lay-off is a tough ask. Conversely, Rum And Butter has been in flying form,
winning three on the trot including a seven-runner novice at Market Rasen
recently at the expense of Scots Gaelic. He remains unbeaten over fences and I
don't think he's unduly punished carrying 10st 11lbs. Dessie Hughes' Art Of
Logistics has claims too, while Paul Nicholls' Caid Du Berlais has not been
sent here just to enjoy the scenery.
In the preceding maiden (4.45), Dermot Weld's Whitey O' Gwaun is nap material albeit at a restrictive price of
5/6. A half-brother to several smart winners, his disappointing run in a handicap
at the Curragh last time can be overlooked as he needed to oil the hinges after
ten months off.
In the opening maiden hurdle (3.0), take a chance on Most Peculiar at 4/1. Willie Mullins' five-year-old shaped well
when third to King Leon on his hurdling debut at Ballinrobe, and went one
better in a bumper at Cork to finish second to MacBride, an Aidan O'Brien
trained gelding which has since won another bumper at Tipperary.
Selections
3.0: Most Peculiar
3.35: Cacheofgold
4.10: Dubawi Phantom (e/w)
4.45: Whitey O' Gwaun (nap)
5.30: Rum And Butter
6.05: Sister Slew (e/w)
6.40: Focussed
7.10: Brooch
CALIBRATE
WITH a strike-rate of one in five, Aidan O'Brien's unraced two-year-olds are always
highly regarded and I suspect that Ask Me Nicely will prove popular at 8/1 for
the Topaz E.B.F. Fillies Maiden (6.05), as we push on with day two of the
Galway Festival. She's well bred and is closely related to some smart winners
including Beethoven although, like more than half the field here, she will be
racing for the first time. Both O'Brien and Dermot Weld have dominated this
race in recent years and we have to go back to 2005 to find a winner which was
not from Ballydoyle or Rosewell House with Weld saddling the most recent
victor, Tarfasha. To be honest, there's a lot of guesswork involved here but the
market will be a good guide and the Weld trained Chinese Light gets the nod at 9/4. The fact that she's a full
sister to Group One winner Chinese White does not go unnoticed.
With a total prize fund of €115,000, the Topaz Mile (6.40) is the feature race
of the day and as one would expect, the 21-runner handicap is a competitive
affair which, from a betting point of view, looks wide open. As is so often the
case at Galway, once again it's the Dermot Weld horse which catches the eye and
at odds of 14/1 or thereabouts, Calibrate
can be backed each-way. She showed some promise here last year but was
ultimately unsuccessful when making her debut in a maiden, but later showed her
worth by landing a similar race at Gowran. This term, she attempted a handicap
at the Curragh and while the result looks poor (seventh of nine runners), she
actually shaped much better than it appears on paper. She was still going well
when hampered a furlong out but wasn't given a rough time by Pat Smullen once
it was clear she wouldn't be taking home some prizemoney. The handicapper has
left her with room to manoeuvre off a mark of 93 although the topweight, Balty
Boys, looks set to give her a run for her money having landed a competitive
handicap at Newmarket last time.
Gordon Elliott has had a few near-misses at Galway down through the years but Takeyourcapoff might be the one to get
him back in the winners' enclosure at Ballybrit in the Caulfieldindustrial.com
Handicap (7.10) at a generous enough price of 7/1. This mare is another one of
his useful dual purpose recruits and she beat some decent sorts to win a
handicap hurdle at Roscommon back in June.
In the concluding maiden, I realise I'm on dangerous ground opposing the Weld
trained favourite (Antique Platinum), but I like the look of David Marnane's Henson,
which should be available somewhere in the region of 3/1. He's a bit of an
oddball to be honest and at times he can almost look disinterested - yet he's
rarely out of the frame and I reckon he'll shed the maiden tag sooner rather
than later.
Good morning folks, The seven-day Galway Festival is here and alongside Goodwood, there should be some good betting opportunities throughout the week. Fancy O'Brien's horse in the maiden and I reckon Weld's bumper horse has been laid out for today. Below is today's Irish Independent article.
JAMAICA
THE 52-race, seven-day marathon that is the Galway Festival kicks off with a
Novice Hurdle this evening (5.10), where Henry
Higgins (10/1) can get punters off to a good start from Charles O'Brien's
yard. The four-year-old was last seen on the flat at Leopardstown in early June
when going from last to first to win a decent enough handicap with plenty to
spare at odds of 7/2. I reckon he's beginning to run out of options on the
level but he's relatively unexposed over timber, and his latest effort in this sphere (fifth of nine runners in a
Grade Two juvenile hurdle at Fairyhouse) wasn't the worst considering the
ground was quite testing. O'Brien says he'll continue to mix both codes for the
moment and I doubt he'll go home empty handed this evening.
An hour later, Aidan O'Brien's Jamaica
(nap) looks like banker material in the maiden at what seems to be a very
reasonable price of 6/4. A son of Galileo, the two-year-old was an eye-catcher
in the parade ring on his debut maiden at the Curragh in late June, shaping well
to finish third behind the even-money favourite and stablemate Gleneagles (which
has since gone on to win a Group Three at Leopardstown). He stayed on strongly
in the final furlong and unless one of the unraced horses here produces something
special, Jamaica should dispose of his rivals handy enough leaving the likes of
Vocaliser or Dudes And Diamonds to battle it out for minor honours.
The big race of the day is the Connacht Hotel Handicap and there are at least
half a dozen horses which I'm finding hard to cross off my list. As such, stakes
will be kept reasonably modest (6.45). It will be interesting to see if money
comes for Tony Martin's Quick Jack, which has been useful over both codes,
winning a handicap at Newmarket in August and also novices' handicap hurdle at
Cheltenham in November. He's beaten a number of these before and may have some
more to come before the handicapper catches up but I doubt the bookmakers will
take any chances here and he'll probably go off around 4/1, which is a little
short for me in a 23-runner field. Instead, Storm Away gets a tentative each-way vote at 16/1. The
five-year-old mare won a maiden at Wexford back in May after which trainer Pat
Flynn mentioned that Galway might be a good target before they send her
hurdling.
It's almost obligatory to back a Dermot Weld horse at Galway, and Call Vinnie (15/8) can send punters
home with a smile on their face in the concluding bumper at 8.15. Weld has a
very good record in these races at Galway with eight wins from 21 runners in
the past ten years, and Call Vinnie comes here in good shape having won a
point-to-point at Templemore back in April.
Selections
5.10: Henry Higgins
5.40: Oscar Vespasian
6.10: Jamaica (nap)
6.45: Storm Away (e/w)
7.15: Tom Dooley
7.45: Primogeniture
8.15: Call Vinnie
Sorry folks, it's been ages since I updated. I've been mad busy with this and that.
A very brief summary of the last month:
The place lays took an absolute hammering but recovered well and I'm now over 100 points in profit for Wayne Bailey Racing on Racing Index:
This is good as it attracts more subscribers but I have to be careful not to take on too many as the liquidity in the place markets is low and prices can be moved quite easy.
The automated trading strategy has been up and down as well. It got off to a flyer and hit €170 profit (to a €10 trading stake) quite quickly but took a hammering last week. It's recovered a bit and now stands at €130 profit:
The €1000 challenge was put on ice as I was busy on other things but I hope to revive that soon and I'll post in due course.
Otherwise, the betting has been going OK. Had a nice big bet on Slade Power last week and I'm hoping for a bit of success in the Irish Oaks with Marvellous which is currently trading about 5/1 although this market is very open and at least four horses have serious claims.
Here's today's Irish Independent article which looks at the Irish Oaks:
Looking forward to Conor McGregor tonight in the UFC in Dublin. He's 9/2 on so I won't be having a bet but he's great craic and has plenty of charisma. Should be a good one.
Sorry for the lack of updates lately, I've been mad busy
with work. A quick review of the past week or two.
Place lays have been absolutely terrible. Took an absolute
hammering and they went from over 100pts profit to about 79pts profit:
A drop of 20pts is tough to take although looking at the
chart gives me some comfort as it shows the overall long term picture.
Hopefully they will get back on track soon.
Part of my challenge included some place laying so that's
taken a hit - I'll update that with a proper P&Lwhen I get a bit of time.
On a positive note, the strategy I mentioned a few weeks ago
(automated inplay trading) is working quite well. I'm only using €10 stakes at
the moment as it's still on test but so far so good. Basically, I set up a spreadsheet
with Gruss Software with a load of triggers to place bets under certain
conditions in-running. It's more or less an automated version of what I was
doing myself although you can never totally replicate how you would act in any
given situation.
At the moment, if the trade goes well I earn €4 and if it
goes wrong I lose €2. The strike rate is just under 50% which is fantastic as
it produces around 15 trades a day. Unfortunately, it's not as simple when you
want to scale up. A lot of people add a zero and think that if they were using
€100, they would be earning €40 per winning trade. But the more you scale up,
the bigger the effect your stakes have on the market. This is especially true of
thinly traded in-running markets such as Irish racing. While €100 might be OK, €1000 might be totally out of place.
But I'll keep plugging away and have decided to increase the
stakes this weekend in preparation for Royal Ascot. Not sure how it will work
there but at least it's been a good distraction to work on while the place lays
were taking a hammering!
I'm opposing Australia with the possibility of the ground softening up. It's a funny one - if he wins, a lot of people will be kicking themselves because O'Brien has been on about how good he is for months. We can't say we were not told about him, that's for sure but still, I reckon he's just a bit too short at 6/4. True Story wouldn't want it too soft either but looks a decent value bet at a double figure price.
Aidan O'Brien has described Australia as the best horse he has trained
As I watched the build-up to the Carl Froch
versus George Groves fight last week, I quietly hoped to myself that
the match-up would go some way to living up to the hype the TV stations
were generating.
Thankfully, we got as far as the eighth round before Froch
knocked out Groves, so I guess you could say the spectators got some
bang for their buck, so to speak.
But so often in that sport you can be left feeling empty-changed when a fighter fails to live up to his billing.
Just
like boxing, racing relies heavily on a good story to promote the
sport, and each generation needs a Frankel or a Nijinsky, a Kauto Star
or an Arkle.
Trying to find the next big star is what racing is
all about for owners, trainers, jockeys and punters alike, and there's
no bigger stage for a horse to make his mark than the Derby, which goes to post today at 4.0.
Famously described by Aidan O'Brien as the best he's ever trained, Australia
comes to Epsom with a lot of expectation on his shoulders although
whether he can live up to his lofty description remains open to
question.
It is often said that great horses can handle various
types of conditions, but O'Brien has made it clear that Australia would
prefer good ground.
I don't think O'Brien is trying to make excuses, but I sometimes
wonder if he regrets describing the colt in such glowing terms so early
on.
As of yesterday, the weather forecast for the Surrey area was
for heavy, thundery showers, so it was no surprise to see Australia's
price drift out since Monday from 4/5 to 6/4.
A son of Galileo and
Ouija Board (Derby and Oaks winners respectively), his breeding
certainly suggests he'll step up in distance and improve on his third
place in the Guineas.
Coupled with the fact that he's top of the
official ratings in such a good quality race, this would make him hard
to oppose under normal circumstances – but I still feel he's too short,
given the doubts about the weather, despite the recent ease in price.
One horse that won't be inconvenienced by the ground is Kingston Hill – Roger Varian's colt won the Racing Post Trophy on poor going as a two-year-old.
He
failed to make an impression in the Guineas and some have questioned
whether he can cut it at the top, but he should improve over the middle
distances and remains a very live threat to the favourite at 7/1.
However, at 12/1, True Story gets the nod this afternoon for the Saeed bin Suroor/Kieren Fallon
combination. He dismissed his rivals in eye-catching style in the
Feilden Stakes at Newmarket back in April (beating subsequent winner
Barley Mow), and he also appears to be the type that would appreciate
the step up in trip.
While his third place in the Dante seemed a
little disappointing at the time, he was only a length and-a-half behind
the winner, The Grey Gatsby, which has since gone on to win the French
Derby.
The last horse to win the Epsom Derby at a double-figure
price was Luca Cumani's High-Rise (20/1) in 1998 on soft enough ground
and, while True Story wouldn't want it heavy, his trainer reckons
good-to-soft would be fine.
DO THE DOUBLE Racing
Cirrus Des Aigles is a worthy favourite at 4/5 for the Coronation Cup at Epsom (2.40).
Despite
the fact he's now aged eight, he showed no signs of slowing down when
taking the Group One Prix Ganay at Longchamp and followed up with a
recent win in the Prix d'Ispahan. With his preferred soft ground a
distinct possibility, he should have enough to see off the likes of
Flintshire and Talent. Gaelic football
Jim
Gavin has said there are no guarantees in sport and that tomorrow's
opponents, Laois, are one of Dublin's biggest threats in Leinster this
year.
The O'Moore County deserve respect and it's good to see that
Dublin are taking nothing for granted. However, at 1/40, it's almost
impossible to see any other result other than a comprehensive victory
for the champions.
Back Bernard Brogan to score a goal anytime at 11/10 (Paddy Power).
EACH-WAY OUTSIDER
THE
Peter Crate-trained Elusivity (10/1) slips in to the Epsom Dash (3.15)
at the bottom of the weights at 8st 5lbs and he's definitely one to
watch off a lenient mark of 88. He has found himself in the frame twice
this year off that rating and is due to go up 2lb for his latest race at
York, so he comes here today effectively a couple of pounds well-in.
- See more
at:
http://www.independent.ie/sport/horse-racing/true-story-can-pull-off-fairytale-epsom-shock-for-fallon-30336009.html#sthash.iLMnG0q5.dpuf
TRUE STORY
AS I watched the build up to the Carl Froch versus George Groves fight last
week, I quietly hoped to myself that the matchup would go some way to living up
to the hype the TV stations were generating. Thankfully, we got as far as the
eight round before Froch knocked out Groves
so I guess you could say the spectators got some bang for their buck, so to
speak. But so often in that sport, you can be left feeling empty-changed when a
fighter fails to live up to his billing. Just like boxing, racing relies
heavily on a good story to promote the sport and each generation needs a
Frankel or a Nijinsky, a Kauto Star or an Arkle. Trying to find the next big
star is what racing is all about for owners, trainers, jockeys and punters alike,
and there's no bigger stage for a horse to make his mark than the Derby, which goes to post
today at 4.0. Famously described by Aidan O'Brien as the best he's ever
trained, Australia
comes to Epsom with a lot of expectation on his shoulders although whether or
not he can live up to his lofty description remains open to question. It is
often said that great horses can handle various types of conditions but O'Brien
has made it clear that Australia
would prefer good ground. I don't think O'Brien is trying to make excuses but I
sometimes wonder if he regrets describing the colt in such glowing terms so
early on. As of yesterday, the weather forecast for the Surrey area was for
heavy, thundery showers so it was no surprise to see Australia's price drift out since Monday
from 4/5 to 6/4. A son of Galileo and Ouija Board (Derby and Oaks winners respectively), his breeding
certainly suggests he’ll step up in distance and improve on his third place in
the Guineas.
Coupled with the fact that he's top of the official ratings in such a good
quality race would make him hard to oppose under normal circumstances - but I
still feel he's too short with doubts about the weather, despite the recent
ease in price. One horse that won’t be inconvenienced by the ground is Kingston
Hill and Roger Varian's colt won the Racing Post Trophy on poor going as a
two-year-old. He failed to make an impression in the Guineas and some have questioned
whether he can cut it at the top, but he should improve over the middle
distances and remains a very live threat to the favourite at 7/1. But at 12/1, True Story gets the nod this afternoon
for the Saeed bin Suroor/Kieren Fallon combination. He dismissed his rivals in
eye-catching style in the Feilden Stakes at Newmarket back in April (beating subsequent
winner Barley Mow in the process), and he also appears to be the type that
would appreciate the step up in trip. While his third place in the Dante seemed
a little disappointing at the time, he was only a length and-a-half behind the winner,
The Great Gatsby, which has since gone on to win the French Derby. The last
horse to win the Epsom Derby at a double-figure price was Luca Cumani's
High-Rise (20/1) in 1998 on soft enough ground, and While True Story wouldn’t
want it heavy, his trainer reckons good-to-soft would be fine.
Each-way
THE Peter Crate trained Elusivity (10/1) slips in to the Epsom
Dash (3.15) at the bottom of the weights at 8st 5lbs and he's definitely one to
watch off a lenient mark of 88. He's found himself in the frame twice this year
off that rating and is due to go up 2lbs for his latest race at York; so he
comes here today effectively a couple of pounds well-in.
DO
THE DOUBLE
GAELIC FOOTBALL: JIM Gavin has said there are no guarantees in sport and that
tomorrow’s opponents, Laois, are one of Dublin’s
biggest threats in Leinster this year. The O'Moore
County deserve respect and it’s good to see that Dublin are taking nothing for
granted - but at 1/25, it’s almost impossible to see any other result other
than a comprehensive victory for the champions. Back Bernard Brogan to score anytime at 11/10 (Paddy Power). RACING: Cirrus Des Aigles is a worthy favourite at 4/5 for the Coronation Cup at Epsom
(2.40). Despite the fact he's now aged eight, he showed no signs of slowing
down when taking the Group One Prix Ganay at Longchamp, and followed up with a
recent win in the Prix d'Ispahan. With his preferred soft grounda distinct possibility, he should have enough
to see off the likes of Flintshire and Talent this afternoon.
Aidan O'Brien has described Australia as the best horse he has trained
As I watched the build-up to the Carl Froch
versus George Groves fight last week, I quietly hoped to myself that
the match-up would go some way to living up to the hype the TV stations
were generating.
Thankfully, we got as far as the eighth round before Froch
knocked out Groves, so I guess you could say the spectators got some
bang for their buck, so to speak.
But so often in that sport you can be left feeling empty-changed when a fighter fails to live up to his billing.
Just
like boxing, racing relies heavily on a good story to promote the
sport, and each generation needs a Frankel or a Nijinsky, a Kauto Star
or an Arkle.
Trying to find the next big star is what racing is
all about for owners, trainers, jockeys and punters alike, and there's
no bigger stage for a horse to make his mark than the Derby, which goes to post today at 4.0.
Famously described by Aidan O'Brien as the best he's ever trained, Australia
comes to Epsom with a lot of expectation on his shoulders although
whether he can live up to his lofty description remains open to
question.
It is often said that great horses can handle various
types of conditions, but O'Brien has made it clear that Australia would
prefer good ground.
I don't think O'Brien is trying to make excuses, but I sometimes
wonder if he regrets describing the colt in such glowing terms so early
on.
As of yesterday, the weather forecast for the Surrey area was
for heavy, thundery showers, so it was no surprise to see Australia's
price drift out since Monday from 4/5 to 6/4.
A son of Galileo and
Ouija Board (Derby and Oaks winners respectively), his breeding
certainly suggests he'll step up in distance and improve on his third
place in the Guineas.
Coupled with the fact that he's top of the
official ratings in such a good quality race, this would make him hard
to oppose under normal circumstances – but I still feel he's too short,
given the doubts about the weather, despite the recent ease in price.
One horse that won't be inconvenienced by the ground is Kingston Hill – Roger Varian's colt won the Racing Post Trophy on poor going as a two-year-old.
He
failed to make an impression in the Guineas and some have questioned
whether he can cut it at the top, but he should improve over the middle
distances and remains a very live threat to the favourite at 7/1.
However, at 12/1, True Story gets the nod this afternoon for the Saeed bin Suroor/Kieren Fallon
combination. He dismissed his rivals in eye-catching style in the
Feilden Stakes at Newmarket back in April (beating subsequent winner
Barley Mow), and he also appears to be the type that would appreciate
the step up in trip.
While his third place in the Dante seemed a
little disappointing at the time, he was only a length and-a-half behind
the winner, The Grey Gatsby, which has since gone on to win the French
Derby.
The last horse to win the Epsom Derby at a double-figure
price was Luca Cumani's High-Rise (20/1) in 1998 on soft enough ground
and, while True Story wouldn't want it heavy, his trainer reckons
good-to-soft would be fine.
DO THE DOUBLE Racing
Cirrus Des Aigles is a worthy favourite at 4/5 for the Coronation Cup at Epsom (2.40).
Despite
the fact he's now aged eight, he showed no signs of slowing down when
taking the Group One Prix Ganay at Longchamp and followed up with a
recent win in the Prix d'Ispahan. With his preferred soft ground a
distinct possibility, he should have enough to see off the likes of
Flintshire and Talent. Gaelic football
Jim
Gavin has said there are no guarantees in sport and that tomorrow's
opponents, Laois, are one of Dublin's biggest threats in Leinster this
year.
The O'Moore County deserve respect and it's good to see that
Dublin are taking nothing for granted. However, at 1/40, it's almost
impossible to see any other result other than a comprehensive victory
for the champions.
Back Bernard Brogan to score a goal anytime at 11/10 (Paddy Power).
EACH-WAY OUTSIDER
THE
Peter Crate-trained Elusivity (10/1) slips in to the Epsom Dash (3.15)
at the bottom of the weights at 8st 5lbs and he's definitely one to
watch off a lenient mark of 88. He has found himself in the frame twice
this year off that rating and is due to go up 2lb for his latest race at
York, so he comes here today effectively a couple of pounds well-in.
- See more
at:
http://www.independent.ie/sport/horse-racing/true-story-can-pull-off-fairytale-epsom-shock-for-fallon-30336009.html#sthash.iLMnG0q5.dpuf
WAYNE Bailey was born in Dublin where he still lives with daughter. A librarian by profession, Wayne has always had a passion for betting and trading and has spent various periods throughout his life as a professional gambler. In 2007, he graduated from University College Dublin with a degree in social science and information studies and four years later, he completed a diploma in financial trading from the Irish Institute of Financial Trading. More recently, he studied psychology and the behaviour of the human mind. Wayne is a regular contributor to various newspapers and websites in the UK and Ireland, and he currently pens the Betting Ring column which enjoys a large dedicated following every Saturday in Ireland’s largest selling newspaper The Irish Independent. Wayne's book 'Sports Trading on Betfair' was published in 2014. Email: waynebaileyracing@gmail.com
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