Cheltenham Festival 2016: day two betting

Morning everyone.

Not a bad day yesterday with three winners although with two of them odds-on, it didn't set the world alight. However Altior in the opening Supreme Novices' race was a decent price at just over 9/2 on Betfair and 4/1 SP.

Native River was second at 7/1 (hit evens in-running) which would have been nice but overall, I'm happy to make a modest profit on the day.

Very much looking forward to the Champion Chase. It's got a great narrative with the old horses taking on the new. I think the Mullins horse will get there, provided he stays up. Below is today's Irish Independent column - best of luck with your bets today. Race by race guide near the bottom of the page:

Un De Sceaux to dethrone the old guard in Champion

The 2013 Queen Mother Champion Chase (3.30) winner Sprinter Sacre will today attempt to emulate the great Moscow Flyer by winning the race aged in double figures.

But there's a reason the younger horses have a good record here and that's because it's usually run at a fierce pace. Unlike some of the less frantic staying races, it's extremely difficult to recover from a mistake over the two-mile trip so accuracy when jumping is of paramount importance.

I'm sure he'd raise the roof if he came home in front, and having backed him numerous times down through the years, I'll be kicking myself for not being a part of it. But Sprinter Sacre's had a number of problems since his outstanding win three years ago and it's a big ask.

Fair enough, he showed that he's still got something to offer when winning the Shloer Chase and the Desert Orchid Chase this term - but a price of 9/2 or thereabouts is a fair reflection of his chances.

2014 winner Sire De Grugy is also aged ten but was beaten by Un De Sceaux and Sprinter Sacre in his latest two races, and there's nothing to suggest the form will be reversed this afternoon.

Dodging Bullets is worth a mention too having won this race last year. With Sprinter Sacre and Sire De Grugy running far below their best in that renewal, the strength of that form is open to question but to win any race at Cheltenham is a big deal so I'm going to give credit where it's due. Unfortunately, he's been mostly out with injury and was beaten on his comeback run by Top Gamble in the Game Spirit Chase.

So with question marks over the last three winners of the race, the vote has got to go to Un De Sceaux, albeit at an odds-on price. He destroyed Sire De Grugy in the Clarence House, he has the speed for this type of race - and he jumps aggressively which all points to a first Champion Chase for Willie Mullins. But paradoxically, that vigorous jumping may actually be his Achilles heel. He's now fallen twice in his seven races over fences so it will be interesting to see if Ruby Walsh tries to temper his enthusiasm a little this afternoon.

Third in this last year, Special Tiara has place claims although he was beaten fair and square in the Tingle Creek by Sire De Grugy.

In the RSA Chase (2.10), 2014 World Hurdle winner More Of That will probably go off as favourite but I must admit that I've found it hard to get a handle on this horse.

While seven wins from eight runs is a fantastic record, his career has been going in a stop-start fashion for a number of years, and his latest race when winning a three-runner novice chase here in December didn't teach us much.

Previously, he won a novice chase with a bit more depth to it at the November meeting so he certainly has claims, but at the prices he's best avoided.

Gordon Elliott's No More Heroes ticks the right boxes for me. A good hurdler in his day, he's shaping up to be an even better chaser winning all three starts over fences, although the downside is that he hasn't had a race since December.

Having said that, Don Poli won this last year after a similar break and No More Heroes has done some schooling with Don Cossack which I'm sure has taught him quite a bit.

STAT ATTACK: NEPTUNE NOVICES' HURDLE

The Ferdy Murphy-trained French Holly won the Neptune Investment Management Novices' Hurdle (1.30) at the age of seven in 1998 priced 2/1 but overall, older horses have a very poor record here.

Since that success, some 50 horses aged seven or older have competed but not one has won. Parlour Games (13/2) and Outlander (4/1) finished second and sixth respectively last year in a race which went to Dermot Weld's Windsor Park (9/2). Weld saddles the only seven-year-old today, Vigil, which is expected to go off around 20/1.

RACE-BY-RACE

GUIDE TO DAY 2

1.30

Willie Mullins' Yorkhill is yet another top-notch prospect but this can go to Alan King's Yanworth, which was trading a shade odds-against yesterday evening. An outstanding course win here in January confirmed he's one of the best in this division.

2.10

This could end up being a match between More Of That and No More Heroes and preference is for the latter at a slightly bigger price. Gordon Elliott has some of the best chasers in training at the moment and this is one of them.

2.50

Quite a tough race for punters recently, Long House Hall gets an each-way vote around 14/1. Dan Skelton's gelding won a Cheltenham handicap hurdle in April, and he might be well handicapped on a mark of 140 considering he won a novices' chase at Bangor with plenty in hand.

3.30

Quite a number of previous winners have come back for more and Sprinter Sacre, Dodging Bullets and Sire De Grugy all deserve respect. But the fast-paced nature of the race may see the older horses struggle leaving Un De Sceaux to claim the prize for Willie Mullins.

4.10

Enda Bolger used to win this race regularly and Josies Orders' winning course and distance form gives him in edge - but he's very short in the betting and Third Intention gets the nod instead at an each-way price. His form has been up and down but this type of race might give him a lift.

4.50

The John Ferguson-trained Jaleo races in a handicap hurdle for the first time and an opening mark of 135 seems fair. He was full of zest when beating Our Thomas in a juvenile hurdle at Catterick last month and I've stuck him in the notebook as one to keep onside in his next few races.

5.30

Good recent form is a must in the bumper but this year, around two-thirds of the field have won their most recent race so that doesn't narrow it down very much. As always, the Willie Mullins' horses will prove popular in the betting but Nigel Twiston-Davies' Ballyandy has done little wrong and won a similar race here in November.

****

Described by the Racing Post as 'the best book of its type so far', Sports trading on Betfair by Wayne Bailey is now available:

Cheltenham Festival 2016: day one betting

Morning all, that time of year again.

Not much of an intro needed here, it's obviously the biggest week of the year for those of us involved with betting and trading. Here's today's Irish Independent column for day one. Race by race guide near the bottom:

Min looks exciting but the figures add up for Altior

These days, the sport known as bandy is similar to ice hockey - but the original game came from 16th Century France, and was actually a form of tennis.

It later became a stick-based game and while the Irish already had hurling, Bandy became popular for a while in Britain. When the ball was passed from player to player, it was said to be 'bandied' about and keeping the ball out of the hands of the opposition by regular passing was one of the skills of the game. 

With Cheltenham finally here a lot of tips and information, reliable and otherwise, will be bandied about this week but as I say every year, the form book is your best friend when it comes to the top class races and the quality doesn't get any better than this.

While horse racing and betting is often accused of being corrupt, at least you can be sure that every single horse will be trying its best this week and with so many special offers from bookmakers, it's actually become a little easier to make a profit following the top horses in recent years.

Although we all love bagging a nice-priced outsider, you certainly need a good reason to oppose the better horses at Cheltenham and those that dislike backing favourites should consider being a little more flexible in certain races for the week that's in it.

To illustrate my point about the form standing up, take the clear top-rated horse (on official ratings) in the non-handicaps: such horses have won 36 times from 112 races (32pc) since 2008. Had you stuck a tenner on each, you'd show a profit of €240. I'm not suggesting you blindly bet without further analysis, but considering that simple approach has shown a profit in seven of the last eight festivals, the top form horses should always be your starting point.

On that note, the Nicky Henderson-trained Altior looks a solid bet around 7/2 in the opening Supreme Novices' Hurdle (1.30) with a rating of 155, 2lbs ahead Willie Mullins' favourite Min.

My main worry for Min is that he can get slightly worked up at the racecourse and tends to race keenly. While the likely speed of the Supreme Novices' might suit him, the hustle and bustle nature of the race, plus the atmosphere from the crowd, might be unsettling.

Altior won a significant contest last time at Kempton and although he hit a flat spot mid-race, he showed true class when asked to up his game by Nico de Boinville.

Henderson hasn't won this since 1992 but with a place strike-rate of 47pc in the last ten years, his horses are almost always thereabouts.

The Champion Hurdle (3.30) has been blown wide open with Arctic Fire and Faugheen out, and I get the feeling that some punters are latching on to Annie Power almost by default.

She was supplemented for the race as expected which is a big vote of confidence, but it's over two decades since a female horse won and a price of 7/4 or thereabouts is a little short for me.

Instead, a chance is taken on stablemate  Nichols Canyon, expected go off at 5/1. A below-par run in the Irish Champion Hurdle is forgiven as he'd had a tough race previously and I expect him to bounce back to form today.

STAT ATTACK: ULTIMA HANDICAP CHASE

Despite sending a total of 19 runners to the Ultima Handicap Chase (2.50) down through the years, Paul Nicholls has never had a winner.

In the early 2000s, quite a few were fancied including Colourful Life (7/1), Royal Auclair (7/1) and Ad Hoc (twice at 5/1 and 7/1) but more recently, his horses have went off in double-figure prices. It seems the market called it right, with the record of his last six runners reading 05UPU7.

Still, the Ditcheat handler hasn't lost faith and is represented by general 14/1 shot Southfield Theatre today.

RAC E-BY-RACE

GUIDE TO DAY 1

1.30

Min has so far lived up to the hype winning both races since coming to Ireland, but he was 4/11 and 1/7 so this is his first real test and he could be vulnerable to the likes of Altior. Nicky Henderson's charge will also be tested like never before - but he has won over the course and distance which may just give him an edge.

2.05

Willie Mullins has named Douvan as his best chance of a winner this week so it's no surprise to see him as short as 4/11 in the betting. Sizing John was second to Douvan over the Christmas at Leopardstown and may be the one to follow him home again.

2.50

The Warren Greatrex-trained Out Sam is a worthy favourite around 11/2 off a mark of 139. He beat Milansbar at Newbury last time and that form has been boosted with Milansbar going on to win at Exeter. Jonjo O'Neill's Holywell is another one for the shortlist.

3.30

A wide-open renewal which can go to Willie Mullins' second-string Nichols Canyon. He appeared tired when third in the Irish Champion Hurdle which came quite soon after his success over Identity Thief in the Ryanair Hurdle. Stablemate Annie Power is obviously the big danger but looks a little skinny in the betting.

4.10

Once again, the strength of Willie Mullins' day-one team is evident, and Vroum Vroum Mag can justify her price around evens to make it an eight victory in-a-row for the stable in this race. She's extremely versatile and has now racked up eight wins in as many races over both timber and fences.

4.50

This looks quite tricky but odds in the region of 7/1 seem quite fair for Native River. Trained by Colin Tizzard, the gelding seemed distracted at Wetherby last time but he has a bit of talent deep down, and the application of cheekpieces should help him concentrate.

5.30

Willow's Saviour won a novice chase at Fakenham last time and a mark of 138 looks quite lenient. Dan Skelton's nine-year-old was a decent hurdler in his time, beating Ptit Zig to win the Ladbroke Hurdle at Ascot in 2013.

****

Described by the Racing Post as 'the best book of its type so far', Sports trading on Betfair by Wayne Bailey is now available:

2016 betting and trading

Well, that’s another year done and dusted. 

As I always say each year, I’m not really one for New Year resolutions – I prefer to add changes slowly along the way each couple of months. Most people’s resolutions go out the window after a few weeks but that’s generally because they take on too much on in one go. If you are thinking of making some changes this year, start with one or two small things and set a reminder in your calendar a month or two away to add another, once you are used to the first changes. Works for me anyhow. All that said, I guess January is as good a time as any to look back on the year just gone and have a think about what’s in store:

Book(s)
2015 was a good one with regard to the book I wrote – Sports Trading on Betfair. The Racing Post took over the title and now publish it in a smaller compact version which is great. Although it was very difficult and time consuming writing a book, I quite enjoyed the process and have started on another book. In fact, I’m about halfway through the second book. The new book is less specialised and is basically about horse racing betting and how to pick winners. The working title is ‘Professional Betting’ and I’m going to explain around seven or eight different strategies that I use each day to pick my horses. I recorded each bet for the year 2015 and I’ll include the actual bets and P&L at the back. I hope it will have a wider reach then the specialised Sports Trading on Betfair although it would also have more competition. I’m hoping to have it out in the spring, maybe around March/April all going well. 

Irish Independent column
The Indo column finished the year about 38 points in profit to Betfair SP and around 4pts in profit to traditional SP. I mentioned this in Saturday’s column but it just goes to show how shopping around for prices can make a huge difference in this game. The margins are so tight and you really need to have a few accounts with various bookmakers and exchanges if you want to have any hope of securing a profit. My own records show that more than eight times out of ten, better prices were available on Betfair exchange (even considering commission) compared to the bookmakers so that’s food for thought if you are loyal or slightly lazy and always use the one bookmaker. A strategy that is breakeven to SP may well be quite profitable on the exchanges. Obviously, the goal for 2016 is to keep the column in profit and it would be great to beat the 2015 figure of 38 points or so. 

Financial trading
I haven’t actually got back into this yet. Time and money really. It’s been an expensive year for us as a couple with lots of unexpected bills. We are also trying to save for a deposit for a mortgage so I don’t have much spare cash floating about for the financial trading right now. It’s definitely something I remain interested in though and will no doubt come back to it at some stage or other. 

Betfair trading/betting
One of my new year resolutions is to find time to get back into trading as I haven’t been at it too much lately. It’s a little easier to find time in the summer when you have the evening races but I’ve had so much on midweek lately that I can only grab a quick market here or there. That never really works too well though, and you can find yourself not ‘tuned in’ when you only trade sporadically. So for the new year, I’ve set myself a goal to trade at least 20 markets per week (or at least look at 20 markets per week to see if any opportunities exist). Consistency is key when trading so I’m trying to get back to it on a more structured level. 20 markets is not a whole lot at all but I'm really trying to focus on quality rather than quantity here and only work on markets which I find good to trade and have worked for me in the past.

New betting strategies
I’ve had to cut back my portfolio a little – as mentioned, it was an expensive year for us bills wise – the two cars gave up on us meaning I’d to buy a new one, the wife had some expensive dental work done on her teeth and a whole load of other bills came along. All told, I think I withdrew around five grand from Betfair to pay for some of the bills so things like the outsider place strategy etc. which takes up a lot of liability have had to be put on the backburner as I reduced my banks.  As I build up my tank again, I’ll add more strategies. It’s frustrating to have to withdraw money to pay for bills but on the other side of the coin, isn’t that the whole point of this? Extra money for those rainy days and all that.

Health and fitness.
No major goals here for 2016 only to get back to going running 3 times per week (I must admit I’ve been a bit lazy and have cut it down to two recently). I’m also trying to keep the cholesterol down and have decided to have a vegan day once a week (don’t laugh!) just to see. I read a book called The China Study which basically says a whole food plant-based diet is best for us although I don’t think I could go the whole hog. This is a start although I haven’t turned into some sort of crusty and still have a good steak and a bottle of wine every so often. 

Wayne Bailey Racing
It was another profitable year for my tipping website www.waynebaileyracing.com with a profit of just under €600 to a €10 stake (see chart below from the proofing website Racing Index). That’s a healthy return although it’s disappointing that it is less than the 2014 return. I’ll keep it going anyway and see what 2016 brings. Around November, I began proofing some back bets to Racing Index with a view to adding them to my website should they be successful. They got off to a flyer and then absolutely tanked and remain around breakeven right now! I’ll continue with those for a while though, as they have proved profitable for me long term.

Anyway, that’s about it for now. Thanks for the comments and emails in 2015 and I hope 2016 is profitable for you.

Wayne

Sports Trading on Betfair now published by Raceform (£12.99)

Hi all,

I'm delighted to announce that my book 'Sports Trading on Betfair' is now published by Raceform.

It's been produced for the much cheaper price of £12.99 and is available on the Racing Post site (click on image below). It's also available as a Kindle on Amazon.

Click here for a review of the book.

Thanks for all your support with this project!

Wayne

Standing still (and Conor McGregor)

Hi folks, a very quick update on my 'living dangerously' strategy which I've spoke of recently.

It's hit a lull at the moment and seems to be one step forward and one step back. I don't think it's anything to worry about too much and standing still is better than going backwards. But it's a little frustrating as it hasn't yet kicked off on the €3 stakes.

The bank's all time high was €1,352. It now stands at €1,128 having hit a few losers in a row which will happen from time to time.

As I say, I'm not going to panic but I would like to see it kick back into life again. Here's the stats:

Number of bets: 2473

Losing bets: 58
Strike Rate: 97.65%
Average stake: €2.13
Current stake: €3.00

Average price of bet: 43.23
Average price of losing bets: 31.01

Total profit: €1,128.64

**

In other news,  it was fantastic to see Conor McGregor win last night against Chad Mendes. At one stage, it looked like he was in trouble but he pulled it out of the bag and landed the killer blow. I know a lot of this is pure entertainment as some people can't warm to it but I'm starting to enjoy it more. Betting wise, McGregor was 4/7 but I'm not sure I'd be confident having a bet on that sport just yet. We get such a lob sided view of things here in Ireland and you barely hear much about McGregor's opponents. But it might be worth betting on in the future as it gets bigger and more exposure. Anyway, well done McGregor, you done the country proud.

 ***

Wayne Bailey's book 'Sports Trading on Betfair' now availble. Click on the above image for more.

A GRAND little system

Good morning folks, it's been a while since I put up a blog. I was away in Portugal last week so I haven't been doing much betting although I got back to it yesterday. Portugal was great craic - I went away with 12 lads from the local pub so it was plenty of fun and great weather too. It was a place called Albefeira (in the Algarve) and the weather was just perfect, around 25-30 degrees each day:

I'm not trading as much as I'd like due to time restrictions but I'll be back to it soon. I have automated some of my strategies and that's working out OK. Automation is a road I want to look into further - there's something great about heading out for the day, letting the computer do its thing according to your rules, and then (hopefully) coming home to a slightly bigger Betfair balance. But of course, automation comes with loads of extra risks and nothing comes easy. Plenty of stuff can't be automated and you can never account for those random events that happen when trading. But still, if you take the lead from the financial trading world (where there's a huge amount of automation), there are bound to be some opportunities with a bit of hard work. I'll keep working on it.

As regards the living dangerously strategy which I've posted about a few times before - it's going very well and I have the profit over the €1,000 mark at this stage. Basically, it involves rating horses, then laying the worst rated horses in the place market. It's risky though, as most horses are high prices although I do have a cut off at 100.0. Until very recently, I had been using €2 stakes but I've upped it to €3 since the bank hit one large (€1,000). Of course, I don't always get my money fully matched. Sometimes I will get a quid or two matched so the average stake has been €1.98. I'm leaving orders under the price a few minutes before the off and if it's not matched, that's fine. At this end of the market, you can't just take any old price just because it's an outsider. You have to be sensitive to getting the best price just as you would were it an odds on shot.
While I haven't withdrawn the money, that's enough to cover my holiday which is what it's all about. It makes the long hours, late nights and early mornings worth it.

I'd love to get it to €2,000 soon at which point I'll increase the stakes to €4 but it's one step at a time and I'm acutely aware that a couple of bad bets in a row will wipe out hundreds from the bank. I'll keep the blog updated with progress. Here's a snapshot and a chart of how it's been going so far:

Number of bets: 2081

Losing bets: 44
Strike Rate: 97.89%
Average stake: €1.98
Current stake: €3.00

Average price of bet: 44.17
Average price of losing bets: 34.39

Total profit: €1,090.55

***

Wayne Bailey's book 'Sports Trading on Betfair' is available on Amazon.

Click here for Kindle version (£9.89)

Click here for Print version (£24.99)

Click here to read the Racing Post's book review