Not much of an intro needed here, it's obviously the biggest week of the year for those of us involved with betting and trading. Here's today's Irish Independent column for day one. Race by race guide near the bottom:
Min looks exciting but the figures add up for Altior
These days, the sport known as bandy is similar to ice
hockey - but the original game came from 16th Century France, and was actually
a form of tennis.
It later became a stick-based game and while the Irish
already had hurling, Bandy became popular for a while in Britain. When the ball
was passed from player to player, it was said to be 'bandied' about and keeping
the ball out of the hands of the opposition by regular passing was one of the
skills of the game.
With Cheltenham finally here a lot of tips and information,
reliable and otherwise, will be bandied about this week but as I say every
year, the form book is your best friend when it comes to the top class races
and the quality doesn't get any better than this.
While horse racing and betting is often accused of being
corrupt, at least you can be sure that every single horse will be trying its
best this week and with so many special offers from bookmakers, it's actually
become a little easier to make a profit following the top horses in recent
years.
Although we all love bagging a nice-priced outsider, you
certainly need a good reason to oppose the better horses at Cheltenham and
those that dislike backing favourites should consider being a little more
flexible in certain races for the week that's in it.
To illustrate my point about the form standing up, take the
clear top-rated horse (on official ratings) in the non-handicaps: such horses
have won 36 times from 112 races (32pc) since 2008. Had you stuck a tenner on
each, you'd show a profit of €240. I'm not suggesting you blindly bet without
further analysis, but considering that simple approach has shown a profit in
seven of the last eight festivals, the top form horses should always be your
starting point.
On that note, the Nicky Henderson-trained Altior looks a
solid bet around 7/2 in the opening Supreme Novices' Hurdle (1.30) with a
rating of 155, 2lbs ahead Willie Mullins' favourite Min.
My main worry for Min is that he can get slightly worked up
at the racecourse and tends to race keenly. While the likely speed of the
Supreme Novices' might suit him, the hustle and bustle nature of the race, plus
the atmosphere from the crowd, might be unsettling.
Altior won a significant contest last time at Kempton and
although he hit a flat spot mid-race, he showed true class when asked to up his
game by Nico de Boinville.
Henderson hasn't won this since 1992 but with a place
strike-rate of 47pc in the last ten years, his horses are almost always
thereabouts.
The Champion Hurdle (3.30) has been blown wide open with
Arctic Fire and Faugheen out, and I get the feeling that some punters are
latching on to Annie Power almost by default.
She was supplemented for the race as expected which is a big
vote of confidence, but it's over two decades since a female horse won and a
price of 7/4 or thereabouts is a little short for me.
Instead, a chance is taken on stablemate Nichols Canyon, expected go off at 5/1. A
below-par run in the Irish Champion Hurdle is forgiven as he'd had a tough race
previously and I expect him to bounce back to form today.
STAT ATTACK: ULTIMA HANDICAP CHASE
Despite sending a total of 19 runners to the Ultima Handicap
Chase (2.50) down through the years, Paul Nicholls has never had a winner.
In the early 2000s, quite a few were fancied including
Colourful Life (7/1), Royal Auclair (7/1) and Ad Hoc (twice at 5/1 and 7/1) but
more recently, his horses have went off in double-figure prices. It seems the
market called it right, with the record of his last six runners reading 05UPU7.
Still, the Ditcheat handler hasn't lost faith and is
represented by general 14/1 shot Southfield Theatre today.
RAC E-BY-RACE
GUIDE TO DAY 1
1.30
Min has so far lived up to the hype winning both races since
coming to Ireland, but he was 4/11 and 1/7 so this is his first real test and
he could be vulnerable to the likes of Altior. Nicky Henderson's charge will
also be tested like never before - but he has won over the course and distance
which may just give him an edge.
2.05
Willie Mullins has named Douvan as his best chance of a
winner this week so it's no surprise to see him as short as 4/11 in the
betting. Sizing John was second to Douvan over the Christmas at Leopardstown
and may be the one to follow him home again.
2.50
The Warren Greatrex-trained Out Sam is a worthy favourite
around 11/2 off a mark of 139. He beat Milansbar at Newbury last time and that
form has been boosted with Milansbar going on to win at Exeter. Jonjo O'Neill's
Holywell is another one for the shortlist.
3.30
A wide-open renewal which can go to Willie Mullins'
second-string Nichols Canyon. He appeared tired when third in the Irish
Champion Hurdle which came quite soon after his success over Identity Thief in
the Ryanair Hurdle. Stablemate Annie Power is obviously the big danger but
looks a little skinny in the betting.
4.10
Once again, the strength of Willie Mullins' day-one team is
evident, and Vroum Vroum Mag can justify her price around evens to make it an
eight victory in-a-row for the stable in this race. She's extremely versatile
and has now racked up eight wins in as many races over both timber and fences.
4.50
This looks quite tricky but odds in the region of 7/1 seem
quite fair for Native River. Trained by Colin Tizzard, the gelding seemed
distracted at Wetherby last time but he has a bit of talent deep down, and the
application of cheekpieces should help him concentrate.
5.30
Willow's Saviour won a novice chase at Fakenham last time
and a mark of 138 looks quite lenient. Dan Skelton's nine-year-old was a decent
hurdler in his time, beating Ptit Zig to win the Ladbroke Hurdle at Ascot in
2013.
****
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