The 2,000 Guineas at Newmarket

Morning folks,

With Punchestwon now finishing and the first Classic of the season today, we are well and truly into flat mode. This afternoon's Guineas is a cracking renewal with most of last year's juvenile's taking part. The favourite will be hard to beat but at a nice price, I reckon Toormore has strong claims. Here's today's Irish Independent article:

TOORMORE
AIDAN O' Brien has described Australia, the exciting son of Galileo and Ouija Board, as possibly the best horse he's ever trained. On the face of it, that makes the three-year-old highly appealing for this afternoon's 2000 Guineas considering O’Brien’s already saddled six winners of that race not to mention four Derby winners. But I still feel it's best to judge a horse on what you see on the racecourse rather that what you hear from the yard and you also have to consider that his breeding suggests he’ll shine most brightly over the middle distances as he matures, rather than a mile. As such, he's opposable today at 11/4 although his excellent juvenile campaign (two wins from three including a Group Three) does imply there’s plenty to look forward to this year. Perhaps he'll be one to back later in the season but I'd rather see some more action from the colt before I commit any hard earned cash to a docket with Australia’s name on it. Stablemate War Command (8/1) is actually rated 2lbs superior although that one does have five races under the belt including a victory last time in the Group One Dewhurst at Newmarket. A horse he beat in that race, Outstrip, franked the form by winning at the Breeder's Cup and with further improvement likely, War Command shouldn't be too far off today. John Gosden’s unbeaten Kingman absolutely routed his rivals in the Greenham last month and it was good to see that the surgery he had to have a chip removed from a joint at the end of last season has had no ill effects. He could be the real deal and it's hard to write anything negative about him today, other than to say his price of 6/4 is a little short considering this year's Classic is shaping up to be a very strong renewal indeed. Richard Hannon, whose father trained three Guineas winners, throws three darts at the board as he attempts to win his first Classic. Of those, Toormore definitely stands out and is tipped at 15/2 to follow up his success in the Craven stakes here three weeks ago. Toormore also beat Outstrip last season and a subsequent trip to Ireland for the National Stakes at the Curragh proved lucrative where an eye catching performance confirmed his status as one of the best juveniles around. While Be Ready's flop made the selection's job much easier in the Craven last time, he won the race with plenty in hand although I do admit it wasn't the flashiest performance in the world. Still, he seems the type of horse that can be relied upon to get the job done regardless of style and I'm confident he's good enough to give the favourite a run for his money at a nice price this afternoon.
Earlier on the same card, Irish Derby winner Trading Leather looks a solid bet at 5/4 in the Group Two Qatar Bloodstock Jockey Club Stakes (3.10). One of the leading juveniles in 2012, the Teofilo colt will wear the blue of Godolphin for the first time following his sale at the end of last season. Placed in the International Stakes at York and the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Ascot, the four-time winner was last seen when third in the Irish Champion Stakes at Leopardstown. He was no match for the Fugue and Al Kazeem on the day but gave a good account of himself nonetheless and the step down in class here should do the trick.  

Each-way 
THE opening Qatar Racing Suffolk Stakes Handicap at Newmarket (2.05) is a tricky enough affair but Roserrow offers some each-way value at 12/1 representing the Andrew Balding yard. The gelding went up 2lbs for his second place in handicap at Nottingham last time which isn't too harsh, and this useful handicapper rarely runs a bad race.  

DO THE DOUBLE
RACING: SIR Michael Stoute's Waila should take all the beating in the Listed Fillies' EBF Stallions Daisy Warwick Stakes at Goodwood (2.20), priced around 6/5. While she finished well down the field in a Group One at Ascot last time, the experience will have done her good and the lightly raced filly should find herself back in the winners' enclosure today.
SOCCER: WEST Ham's defence has looked particularly weak of late and they haven't kept a clean sheet in their last ten league matches. Tottenham, who have scored twelve goals in their last four games, pay a visit this afternoon should be a safe enough bet at 10/11 with Tim Sherwood’s men now two wins away from equalling their highest Premier League points total of 72.

Today's selections
2.05 Newmarket: Roserrow (e/w)
2.20 Goodwood: Waila
3.10 Newmarket: Trading Leather
3.50 Newmarket: Toormore
4.05 Goodwood: Zibelina
4.20 Punchestown: Tiger Roll

Bet365 Gold Cup Chase at Sandown

Morning folks, a mixed day of flat and jumps today. It will be good to see Sire De Grugy out at Sandown although the price is very restrictive. In the Whitbread, I've gone for Same Difference which is not very original but I think he's dropped down enough in the weights to give him a good chance. Here's today's Irish Independent article:

Saturday's bets

A quiet day today with Listed class the best we have on offer. Facny a couple of horses though so we'll give it a lash. Here's today's Irish Independent article:

Laying horses in the place markets & automated trading on Betfair

I don't agree with having racing on Good Friday so no bets for me today.

I spent most of today working on tomorrow's Irish Independent article but I also spent some time reviewing some systems and strategies. I'm delighted with how well my place lays are going and 2014 is continuing to be as good as 2013:

The profit to a tenner since 2008 is over four grand which is great and I've made a nice few quid off them this year already so fingers crossed they keep going in the right direction. I've been proofing them to Racing Index which is a handy way to get more people to my site www.waynebaileyracing.com and at the moment, I'm topping the table for those that are proofing for under a year. 

I'm probably coming across as a little boastful here which is not my intention - I'm simply very happy to be making some money in the palce markets as it's an area which took a long time for me to crack.

***

I've also been working on an automatic trading strategy. I set the software to place bets under certain conditions and then I leave it run for the day. I'm always wary about this type of thing and making money while you do other things seems to good to be true. But so far, it's worked OK with just two losses from around 40 trades. I've tweaked it slightly in the past while to keep the losses to a minimum and I hope that will improve things a little.

The profit using €20 stakes is around €6 which isn't too bad although as you can see from the graph, a single loss can knock you back quite a bit as I'm greening up the profitable trades but not the losing ones:

It needs work but I enjoy working on it and am quitely confident I can improve it. If so, I'll increase the stakes. If any other readers are trying out automatic trading, I'd welcome your thoughts.

Wayne

Some fresh ideas / Scottish Grand National at Ayr

Hi folks,

I've been working on some new ideas and it's been a quite a productive day. On the trading side, I've come up with an idea to automate some strategies which I use whereby bets will be fired in under certain circumstances. I was only using minimum stakes on that but I got most markets right and it's going in the right direction.

I've also been working on my place lays too which are going very well. I don't like tweaking them too much as they've shown a lot of profit over the years but I toyed with some ideas today and made some money. It's great to be finally make some money in the place markets as I struggled there for years. I made about €140 today but I'm most happy about the consistency and there were very few losing markets:

Back to the regular racing - we've the Scottish Grand National at Ayr to get stuck into. There's also some decent flat racing on so here's hoping I'll have a few more pounds on Saturday night than I do on Saturday morning. Here's Saturday's Irish Independent article:

HADRIAN'S APPROACH
BOTH Merigo and Hello Bud won the Scottish Grand National (3.50) aged 11 in recent years, but the only horse aged 12 or more to win since the race was transferred to Ayr in 1966 was Wilsford. That was back in 1995 and just like the English Grand National at Aintree, older horses tend to struggle. Admittedly, horses aged 12 or more usually make up a very small proportion of the field each year but those that do take part rarely make an impression and for betting purposes, I reckon they are best avoided. Paul Nicholls' Tidal Bay tops the weights and the 13-year-old came home unscathed after the Aintree equivalent last week having unseated Sam Twiston Davies at the first Canal Turn. Tidal Bay is rated 166 and will shoulder the maximum 11st 12lbs but because the minimum weight any horse is allowed to carry here is 10st, those rated less than 140 will all be 'out of the handicap'. In other words, all horses numbered 12 to 30 on the card will be carrying more weight than they should be. It's no surprise then, that majority of the market leaders come from the top part of the weights although whether Tidal Bay (14/1) can remain competitive at this stage of his career remains to be seen. He's a great horse and records are there to be broken but at the prices, I think it's best to look elsewhere for the winner. One horse that might be overpriced each-way at 16/1 is Nicky Henderson's Hadrian's Approach, and Barry Geraghty went easy enough on him when it became clear he wouldn't be finishing near the money in the three mile handicap chase at the Cheltenham Festival. While it would be fair to describe that race as a setback, he previously won the Graduation Chase at Newbury off this mark (146) without too much fuss and it's my guess that he's still favourably handicapped. The going at Cheltenham was good to firm but he acts best on ground which is on the softer side of good so today's conditions are likely to bring out the best in him. Henderson, who is yet to win the Scottish National, reports that the seven-year-old has come out of Cheltenham in good shape and connections are quietly confident he can manage to place at the least. Lucinda Russell's Green Flag also catches the eye but might be a little short at 7/1. He clocked up a hat-trick of wins over fences in October and November, and ran a cracking race when fourth in the aforementioned three mile handicap at Cheltenham.
On the flat at Newbury, Lady Cecil's Noble Mission makes appeal at 5/1 in the Group Three John Porter Stakes (1.50). The son of Galileo was beaten in this race last year at 5/4 but he's since won a Listed race at Newbury and was a good fourth in Hardwicke Stakes at Royal Ascot. While he was outclassed in a Group Two at Longchamp last time, his nearest rival today Astonishing has at least 2lbs to make up on official ratings. 

Each-way
THE Scottish Champion Hurdle (2.40 Ayr) is a limited handicap and the inclusion of My Tent Or Yours (10/11) means that eight of the eleven runners will be racing out of the handicap. One that does get in off his proper racing weight is Gordon Elliott's Flaxen Flare, and he's generally available at a nice each-way price of 10/1. The favourite will be very hard to beat but Elliott is adept at raiding prizes across the water and the consistent five-year-old ran right up to his best when fifth in the Vincent O'Brien County Handicap Hurdle at Cheltenham last time.

DO THE DOUBLE
SOCCER:  LIVERPOOL are now as short as 15/8 to win the League and in an absolutely mouth-watering clash tomorrow, they welcome 4/5 title favourites Manchester City to Anfield. The Reds know they were unlucky to be beaten at the Etihad earlier this season but home advantage will give them an edge this time and Brendan Rodgers' men are playing with an ever increasing level of style and confidence. This could be a high scoring affair but Liverpool are tipped to just about shade it at 6/4.
RACING: THE Marco Botti trained Al Thakhira was below form in Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf last time but she was quite impressive when winning a maiden at Yarmouth and later the Group Two Rockfel Stakes at Newmarket. As such, her current price of 14/1 for the 1,000 Guineas looks about right. Santa Anita is best forgotten and she can get her campaign back on track in the Group Three Fred Darling Stakes at Newbury this afternoon (2.20), priced around3/1.

Today's selections
1.50 Newbury: Noble Mission
2.20 Newbury: Al Thakhira
2.40 Ayr: Flaxen Flare (e/w)
2.55 Newbury: Astaire
3.50 Ayr: Hadrian's Approach (e/w)

 

Aintree Grand National 2014

Morning all, it's the big one today. Here's today's Irish Independent article:

CHANCE DU ROY
SAMUEL Langhorne Clemens, familiar to most by his pen name Mark Twain, once said that 'history doesn't repeat itself but it does rhyme'. Twain's phrase is worth keeping in mind when trying to make a shortlist for today's Grand National at Aintree (4.15), and a lot of punters will look back through the list of previous National winners to see what sort of traits are required in order to win the world's greatest steeplechase. Stats and trends certainly have their place and looking back at the past can help create a profile of the type of horse it takes to win - although you have to use your common sense and allow for some flexibility. Indeed, one of the most important things that history tells us about this race is that almost anything can happen.  Until 2009, for example, French-bred horses were unpopular as they hadn't won since 1909 - but Mon Mome changed all that at 100/1 and another French-bred, Neptune Collonges, followed up in 2012 at 33/1. But having said that, it's hard not to be influenced by certain statistics. For instance, the last time a 13-year-old won, Brendan Behan was still in cloth nappies (1923) and that puts me right off Paul Nicholls' Tidal Bay, which tops the weights at 11st 10lbs. Experience is all well and good but I just can't be having him at 14/1 despite the fact that he ran a cracker in third in the Welsh National back in December. Just like Mon Mome, he might prove his doubters wrong - but the record books tell us that it takes a younger set of legs to successfully tackle Aintree's famous fences over a distance of nearly four and-a-half miles. Swing Bill, which snuck in at the opposite end of the weights, is of a similar vintage to Tidal Bay although the bookies don't give that one much hope at 66/1.
The horse that ticks all the right boxes is Rebecca Curtis' Teaforthree which has been trained all season with this race as the target. Third last year off 151, the ten-year-old comes here in good shape having had an easy enough time of it in the Gold Cup. He's a great jumper and is 2lbs lower than 2013 so it would be no surprise to see him in the thick of the action once again. But he's not exactly value at 8/1and for that reason, I'm crossing him off my list, albeit reluctantly. For those looking for a nice outsider, consider Chance du Roy at 33/1, trained by Philip Hobbs with Tom O'Brien booked to ride. Although the Grand National has been made easier in recent years, not every horse can handle these fences but the selection won the Becher Chase in December and was second in the Topham Chase back in 2012. On the negative side, he's yet to prove his stamina over the trip but his weight of 10st 6lbs seems fair enough and if he puts in a good round of jumping and stays out of trouble, he's entitled to be thereabouts.
Considering he won the Gold Cup in 2011, Long Run deserves a mention and Sam Waley-Cohen proved just how effective he is over these fences when steering Warne to victory in the Fox Hunters' Chase on Thursday. But sadly, Long Run seems to be in decline and his jumping often lets him down. Of course, you need more than one running for you in this race and of the rest, Rocky Creek has strong each-way claims at 16/1. He's in good form, he's a great jumper and the vibes from Nicholls' yard are all positive. A lack of experience has put some backers off but to me he looks unexposed and the form from his latest race when second in the Argento Chase has worked out well. 

DO THE DOUBLE
SOCCER: WEST BROM have now gone 11 League games without a clean sheet and they could find life tough away to a Norwich City side which are unbeaten in their last six home games. Norwich still have to play Liverpool, Manchester United, Chelsea and Arsenal so they'll be aware of how important it is to get some points in the bag today. Bank on The Canaries to score the first goal this afternoon at 10/11.  
RACING: FORMERLY known as the Liverpool Hurdle, the Silver Cross Stayers' Hurdle (2.50 Aintree) looks difficult to decipher but it may well end up as a match between At Fishers Cross (5/2) and Zarkandar (11/4). Third in the World Hurdle at Cheltenham, At Fishers Cross finished two lengths ahead of Zarkandar but the latter was trying out the distance for the first time and has excuses. If given a more positive ride this afternoon, he should improve enough to reverse the placings. 

Today's selections
2.05 Aintree: Trifolium
2.50 Aintree: Zarkandar
3.40 Lingfield: American Hope
4.15 Aintree: Chance du Roy (e/w)
4.15 Aintree: Rocky Creek (e/w)


Over 300 POINTS PROFIT to date! See WAYNEBAILEYRACING.COM for more details.  

Aintree Grand National meeting 2014

Some good racing on today - most looking forward to watching The New One in the Aintree Hurdle. I backed him in the Champion Hurdle but he had wretched luck behind Our Conor. At the prices (4/11), he's not a bet today but I'll cheer him on nonetheless.

In the Betfred Bowl, I'm siding with Silviniaco Conti. I have a strategy for the top non handicap chases whereby I'll simply back the top rated horse provided its rating is 165+. I also have a rule that they must have ran within the last sixty days (so I'm relatively confident their rating is accurate).

Since 2003, there's been 85 winners from 174 bets (49pc) and the profit to a 1pts stake at SP is 45pts.

Aside from the stats, I think he ran a cracking race in a strange Gold Cup so he should be in with a shout today at 9/4. I just hope Cheltenham didn't take too much out of him but he's got 8lbs in hand so perhaps he can just about do it. If not, Dynaste will be there to pick up the pieces.


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