Trading software

Friday, April 11, 2014

Some fresh ideas / Scottish Grand National at Ayr

Hi folks,

I've been working on some new ideas and it's been a quite a productive day. On the trading side, I've come up with an idea to automate some strategies which I use whereby bets will be fired in under certain circumstances. I was only using minimum stakes on that but I got most markets right and it's going in the right direction.

I've also been working on my place lays too which are going very well. I don't like tweaking them too much as they've shown a lot of profit over the years but I toyed with some ideas today and made some money. It's great to be finally make some money in the place markets as I struggled there for years. I made about €140 today but I'm most happy about the consistency and there were very few losing markets:

Back to the regular racing - we've the Scottish Grand National at Ayr to get stuck into. There's also some decent flat racing on so here's hoping I'll have a few more pounds on Saturday night than I do on Saturday morning. Here's Saturday's Irish Independent article:

BOTH Merigo and Hello Bud won the Scottish Grand National (3.50) aged 11 in recent years, but the only horse aged 12 or more to win since the race was transferred to Ayr in 1966 was Wilsford. That was back in 1995 and just like the English Grand National at Aintree, older horses tend to struggle. Admittedly, horses aged 12 or more usually make up a very small proportion of the field each year but those that do take part rarely make an impression and for betting purposes, I reckon they are best avoided. Paul Nicholls' Tidal Bay tops the weights and the 13-year-old came home unscathed after the Aintree equivalent last week having unseated Sam Twiston Davies at the first Canal Turn. Tidal Bay is rated 166 and will shoulder the maximum 11st 12lbs but because the minimum weight any horse is allowed to carry here is 10st, those rated less than 140 will all be 'out of the handicap'. In other words, all horses numbered 12 to 30 on the card will be carrying more weight than they should be. It's no surprise then, that majority of the market leaders come from the top part of the weights although whether Tidal Bay (14/1) can remain competitive at this stage of his career remains to be seen. He's a great horse and records are there to be broken but at the prices, I think it's best to look elsewhere for the winner. One horse that might be overpriced each-way at 16/1 is Nicky Henderson's Hadrian's Approach, and Barry Geraghty went easy enough on him when it became clear he wouldn't be finishing near the money in the three mile handicap chase at the Cheltenham Festival. While it would be fair to describe that race as a setback, he previously won the Graduation Chase at Newbury off this mark (146) without too much fuss and it's my guess that he's still favourably handicapped. The going at Cheltenham was good to firm but he acts best on ground which is on the softer side of good so today's conditions are likely to bring out the best in him. Henderson, who is yet to win the Scottish National, reports that the seven-year-old has come out of Cheltenham in good shape and connections are quietly confident he can manage to place at the least. Lucinda Russell's Green Flag also catches the eye but might be a little short at 7/1. He clocked up a hat-trick of wins over fences in October and November, and ran a cracking race when fourth in the aforementioned three mile handicap at Cheltenham.
On the flat at Newbury, Lady Cecil's Noble Mission makes appeal at 5/1 in the Group Three John Porter Stakes (1.50). The son of Galileo was beaten in this race last year at 5/4 but he's since won a Listed race at Newbury and was a good fourth in Hardwicke Stakes at Royal Ascot. While he was outclassed in a Group Two at Longchamp last time, his nearest rival today Astonishing has at least 2lbs to make up on official ratings. 

THE Scottish Champion Hurdle (2.40 Ayr) is a limited handicap and the inclusion of My Tent Or Yours (10/11) means that eight of the eleven runners will be racing out of the handicap. One that does get in off his proper racing weight is Gordon Elliott's Flaxen Flare, and he's generally available at a nice each-way price of 10/1. The favourite will be very hard to beat but Elliott is adept at raiding prizes across the water and the consistent five-year-old ran right up to his best when fifth in the Vincent O'Brien County Handicap Hurdle at Cheltenham last time.

SOCCER:  LIVERPOOL are now as short as 15/8 to win the League and in an absolutely mouth-watering clash tomorrow, they welcome 4/5 title favourites Manchester City to Anfield. The Reds know they were unlucky to be beaten at the Etihad earlier this season but home advantage will give them an edge this time and Brendan Rodgers' men are playing with an ever increasing level of style and confidence. This could be a high scoring affair but Liverpool are tipped to just about shade it at 6/4.
RACING: THE Marco Botti trained Al Thakhira was below form in Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf last time but she was quite impressive when winning a maiden at Yarmouth and later the Group Two Rockfel Stakes at Newmarket. As such, her current price of 14/1 for the 1,000 Guineas looks about right. Santa Anita is best forgotten and she can get her campaign back on track in the Group Three Fred Darling Stakes at Newbury this afternoon (2.20), priced around3/1.

Today's selections
1.50 Newbury: Noble Mission
2.20 Newbury: Al Thakhira
2.40 Ayr: Flaxen Flare (e/w)
2.55 Newbury: Astaire
3.50 Ayr: Hadrian's Approach (e/w)


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