Happy Christmas

Morning all,

It's the calm before the storm. There's no racing for three days and then we hit St Stephens' Day which is full on. Happy Christmas to all readers, I hope it's a happy and peaceful one.

Wayne

Festive finances

Morning folks, it's the last big betting weekend before Christmas so here's hoping a few quid is earned. Looking forward to Leopardstown this year - I'll probably head up for a couple of days although I usually avoid St Stephens' Day as I like chilling out at home and watching the King George. Here's today's Irish Independent article - hopefully a few quid can be added to the festive betting pot:

Wayne's book Sports Trading on Betfair is out now:

Living dangerously

I've always wondered who the headcases are that lay horses in the place markets at large prices. 

Is there money to be made? Possibly, so I decided to join them and see. 

I've back tested a ratings system I've created which lays horses in the place markets if they meet certain criteria - most horses are large prices although I do have a cut-off at 100.0. 

Basically, the ratings system was created by myself and the rules are that the bottom quarter of the list of rated horses are layed in the place market. In other words, the worst horses (according to my ratings) are layed. The results are very impressive to the minimum €2 stake, producing a grand or two per year (assuming commission is 5%):

Of course, backtesting is one thing and it's always different in real life so I've been doing this in a separate account for the last seven days and already, it's produced over €120 in profit:

That looks great on paper but I suppose it masks the risks. I've had two big losers during that period (one at 55.0 and one at 22.0) but it's kept in profit. However, had I hit a 200.0 shot, I'd be well in the red now. [EDIT: I mean to say a €200 loser which is the 100.0 cut off at the minimum €2 stake).

The big losers will come eventually and it's really a matter of hoping that an extraordinary amount of them don't come along (which is possible but unlikely). When I hit a big loser, it would be nice to have built up a bank to cover it but we'll see how it goes.

It requires plenty of bottle to lay at those prices but so far, so good. I'm not counting my chickens as I know that the worst case scenario is always possible but I'll keep going for a bit and report on progress.

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Wayne's book Sports Trading on Betfair is out now:

The Betfair Chase at Haydock

Afternoon all,

Looking forward to the Betfair Chase at Haydock. Looks super competitive and a good case could be made for half the field. Should be a good one - here's today's Irish Independent column:

The Paddy Power Gold Cup at Cheltenham

Today's column:

http://www.independent.ie/sport/horse-racing/prep-race-has-cantlow-primed-for-victory-in-paddy-power-gold-cup-30746439.html

The November Handicap at Doncaster

 Can't believe we are at the end of the flat season already! Today's Doncaster Handicap looks as tricky as ever. Not a race for heavy punting, but we'll give it a spin nonetheless. Here's today's column:

http://www.independent.ie/sport/horse-racing/kings-hollow-penny-worth-a-few-euro-in-wincanton-contest-30727734.html

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Wayne's book Sports Trading on Betfair is out now:

The National Hunt is back

Good morning all,

The National Hunt season kicks back in proper today with a Grade One from Down Royal and the Charlie Hall at Wetherby. A good day ahead hopefully - here's today's Irish Independent article:

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Wayne's book Sports Trading on Betfair is out now:

The Dublin Marathon

Yesterday, I completed one of my long terms goals and ran a marathon. It was very tough, especially considering I was a groomsman at a wedding over the weekend and had a fair few pints.

I'm absolutely wrecked today but I feel good about myself as it took a lot of time and commitment to do the training. Not sure if I'd do it again in a hurry although you never know. But I have that box ticked on the 'to do' list and that's quite satisfying.  I learned quite a lot about my own body through the whole process and I've a much better appreciation of what I'm capable of - but just as importantly, I know I have certain limits too. Sometimes it's good to push the limits to see if your assumptions about yourself are correct. I also have a better appreciation of how those poor long distance chasers must feel!

At the finish line yesterday

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Wayne's book Sports Trading on Betfair is out now:

The Racing Post Trophy

Morning folks,

Here's today's Irish Indpendent article. Have a good weekend,

Wayne

Sports Trading on Betfair - New video on Youtube

New video for the book. View here:

Champions Day at Ascot

 
                                       

Good morning folks, I've had a great reception to the book (above) and have sold a few copies already without any real advertising. Thanks to those who bought!



Not a bad day of racing ahead with Champions Day at Ascot. I've a feeling a couple of the French horses will do well. Here's today's Irish Independent article:

http://www.independent.ie/sport/horse-racing/heads-big-hope-can-show-right-spirit-in-champion-stakes-30673410.html

New book: Sports Trading on Betfair

Hi folks,

After lots of delays, my book has finally gone on sale. It's up on Amazon at the moment and I'm chatting to a publisher/distributor about getting it into some shops in the future. It's quite specialised so it's probably best to sell it online for now but we'll see how it goes :-). At the moment, it's a good old-fashioned paper book rather than electronic. There are a number of piracy issues when you put it out there electronically so I'll have to have a think about whether I want to go down that road later. Anyway, it's been a lot of hard work but it's great to finally see it in print. There are very few books about trading out there so hopefully there's a market for it.

Wayne

                                 

Cesarewitch Handicap at Newmarket

It looks like a tricky day of racing overall - but sure we'll give it a lash!  Here's today's Irish Independent colunn:

Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe weekend

Good afternoon all, a good weekend last week with the main bet, Tiggy Wiggy, winning at 6/4 and Tagula Night also coming home at 8/1.

More of the same this weekend please! Not a bad weekend with a Group One today and then, of course, the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe tomorrow. Bring it on!

Today's Irish Independent column:

Cheveley Park Stakes at Newmarket

Morning all, here's today's Irish Independent article. Absolutely cracking weekend of sport with the racing, football and hurling on:

The Mill Reef Stakes at Newbury

Good afternoon all, here's today's Irish Independent article:

Irish Champions Weekend

I'm not normally one that goes for novel events in racing but I have to say, the Irish Champions Weekend is a great idea. There's around 10 Group races across the cards today and tomorrow at Leopardstown and the Curragh and it's great to see the likes of Australia at Leopardstown tonight. Irish racing is among the best in the world at times so I hope to get to see as much of it live as I can. Britain also has the St Leger today so we've plenty to look forward to.

Anyway, here's today's Irish Independent article:

True greats like Australia are a real treat for Irish racegoers

BACK in the mid 90s, I was sitting watching Bret ‘ The Hitman’ Hart smash a chair over Stone Cold Steve Austin’s head on the tele one Sunday morning, when my late father threw my coat at me and told me to come up to Leopardstown if I wanted to see some real entertainment.

The ‘ People’s Champion’ Danoli had been declared for The Hennessy Gold Cup and although I was only sixteen, I knew that the chance to see some real racing greats doesn’t come around too often. So on a cold February morning, we made our way up to the racecourse with a f lask of hot whiskey in tow to keep us warm on the five-mile stroll from Ballybrack.

The betting ring was busy and Imperial Call looked the one to beat at even-money. But when push came to shove in the last mile, Danoli just kept on giving and outstayed Jodami to win by one and-a-half lengths at 6/1. My father commented on how well Danoli had travelled, and the advertising executives from Toyota cars must have agreed, as they launched a billboard campaign just a couple of weeks later with the slogan ‘In a perfect world, we’d all travel as sweetly as Danoli’.

Leopardstown has seen some proper legends cross the line over the years and Dubliners are in for a real treat this evening as Australia, which travels just as sweetly on the f lat as Danoli did over jumps, goes to post for this evening’s Irish Champion Stakes (6.50) as part of the newly established Irish Champions Weekend.

Famously described by Aidan O’Brien as the best he’s ever trained, I foolishly opposed the dual Derby winner a couple of times this season in the hope that he’d been overhyped but there’s no doubt about it, the son of Galileo and Ouija Board is the real deal. He’ll probably go off in the region of 1/3 so from a betting point of view, it’s mostly a non- event although there are never any certainties in this game and it’s worth remembering that his dam was beaten in this race at 11/4 in 2006, while his sire shocked all of us when losing at 4/11 in 2001.

Across the water, Kingston Hill’s St Leger bid (3.50) was thrown into doubt on Thursday when trainer Roger Varian said he may not head to Doncaster if the ground ends up fast due to a lack of watering. In my view, Varian has become a bit too precious at this stage and racing journalist Paul Haigh was right a number of years ago when he suggested that ‘ firm-ground horses should have rights too’ after Ascot watered unnecessarily.

If he does race, he’s likely to be short around 11/4 and preference is for John Gosden’s Romsdal, which was trading around 5/1 yesterday evening. Third in the Derby behind Australia and Kingston Hill, he was disappointing in the King George but he’s been touted as a Leger horse for some time now and the step up to a mile and six should suit him well.

EACH-WAY

GREAT St Wilfrid winner Out Do is back in action for this afternoon’s Ladbrokes Portland Handicap (2.40 Doncaster), a race which is always extremely competitive.

The David O’Meara trained fiveyear- old overcame traffic problems at Ripon in a first time visor and eventually won handy enough - but the handicapper has left him some room for improvement raising his mark just 3lbs to 97.

He’s rarely out of the frame and at 10/1 this afternoon, he’s entitled to go close.

DO THE DOUBLE

RACING

AIDAN O’Brien’s TAPESTRY should prove hard to beat at 13/8 in the Group One Coolmore Fastnet Rock Matron Stakes at Leopardstown (5.45).

She flopped in the 1,000 Guineas but there was obviously something amiss and she’s since proved her worth when beating 1/5 favourite Taghrooda in the Yorkshire Oaks. Rizeena is likely to follow her home.

SOCCER

BOTH Arsenal and Manchester City have had slow enough starts to the season with the former notching up just one win from three games and the latter putting in a very poor 90 minutes when beaten 1-0 by Stoke.

The pair meet this afternoon but when you take recent form into account, it’s very difficult to strongly fancy either side and BACKING THE DRAW looks the most attractive option here at 13/5.

Sprint Cup at Haydock

Afternoon all,

It's going to be a tricky old race but I'm looking forward to the Sprint Cup at Haydock. Here's today's Irish Independent article:

Saturday's bets

Morning folks,

Sorry for the lack of updates recently. As always, I'm up to my eyes with diffrent projects and time is limited. I'll do a review soon. For now, here's today's Indo article:

Galway & Goodwood betting, Saturday

A cracker of a day yesterday with a 12/1 (18/1 on Betfair) and a 9/2 winner. More of the same today please!


Here's today's Irish Independent article:

CALL VINNIE
IN Monday's Irish Independent, I tipped up the Dermot Weld trained Call Vinnie for the bumper and as he picked up around the home turn, I called for a round of drinks at the bar with the five-year-old seemingly home and hosed. In-running punters on the machine thought so too and gelding traded as low as 1/4 before being outstayed by the more experienced bumper horse Princely Conn. The pints went down well with the lads but it was an expensive reminder for me that the hill at Galway can empty out a tank in a flash, and just like Cheltenham, you should never count your chickens at Ballybrit until the horse is safely across the line. Still, the experience will have done some good and McNamara teams up with the point-to-point winner once again this evening to hopefully make amends in the Ladbrokes Top Treble Flat Race (5.55). At 7/4, I reckon there's a good chance of getting my money back although I've a slight concern that Tony Martin's Fill Your Hands (9/2) may scupper the bet, having finished third in a bumper at Kilbeggan in May. As we saw with Thomas Edison in the Galway Hurdle this week,  Martin certainly knows how to prepare a horse for a specific race and the market should be  a good guide to his chances.
Dessie Hughes' Off The Charts  has claims at 6/1 in the Ladbrokes Handicap Hurdle (3.10) but the Martin Brassil trained topweight Celestial Prospect gets my vote at 7/1 following a minor success at Cork last time. Previously, he beat the smart handicapper Acapulco Gold in a competitive handicap hurdle Gowran and I suspect the assessor does not yet have his measure despite his rating going up by a stone to 134 in the space of three months.
In the south of England at Goodwood, Aidan O'Brien's Venus de Milo can raid the lion's share of the £200,000 prize on offer for the Markel Insurance Nassau Stakes (3.15), priced around 9/4. Second in the Group One Pretty Polly Stakes at Irish HQ, she beat Dazzling to win the Munster Oaks at Cork in June and it will be disappointing if she doesn't make the most of the opportunity in what is a somewhat substandard renewal of this Group One. The main concern is that her best form is mostly over a mile and-a-half but unlike some of her rivals, she's a proven performer on firmer ground which may prove decisive. Of the rest, you'd expect Alain de Royer-Dupré's Narniyn to give a good account of herself at 7/2. She's won a number of Group Threes and must be respected although she seems to act best on soft going and might find today's conditions a bit too quick. Mango Diva (4/1) is the best of the domestic challengers for Michael Stoute.  Her trainer has won this race seven times (most recently in 2004) and some of her best races came in and around this distance. 

EACH-WAY
AS usual, the Stewards' Cup at Goodwood (3.50) is extremely competitive, and Muthmir is sure to prove popular following his demolition job in the Sky Bet Dash last week. But all that is priced in to his odds of 6/1 and preference is for Ninjago which is expected to go off at a decent each-way price of 14/1. The Richard Hannon trained colt was fifth in this race last year and it might be worth forgiving a poor showing in the Wokingham last time out. 

*Last week's each-way selection, Dont Bother Me, was placed at 16/1. 

DO THE DOUBLE
GAELIC FOOTBALL: MEATH take on Armagh at five o' clock today but having been torn apart by Dublin in the Leinster Final, confidence in the Royal camp is bound to be low. If they couldn't muster up a fight against their old rivals Dublin, it's hard to see them progressing much further. Meanwhile Armagh come here in decent form following two good victories over Tyrone and Roscommon and momentum is on their side. At 4/5 to qualify, The Orchard County are a confident bet this evening.
RACING: AIDAN O'Brien's Marchese Marconi is a half brother to Endless Power and shaped well on his hurdle debut when second of 24 runners at Punchestown back in May. He's also useful on the flat and has since won a minor event for amateur riders at Limerick. He remains open to improvement over hurdles and a price of 11/8 seems reasonable in the opening Ladbrokes Mobile Maiden Hurdle at Galway this afternoon (2.35). 

* Last week's double was successful at an overall price of just over 11/2. 

Today's selections
2.35 Galway: Marchese Marconi
3.10 Galway: Celestial Prospect
3.15 Goodwood: Venus de Milo
3.45 Galway: Spryt
3.50 Goodwood: Ninjago (e/w)
5.55 Galway: Call Vinnie

Galway Races bettting, Friday

Good morning folks,

Just a couple of short priced winners yesterday so nothing special, although my place lays for Wayne Bailey Racing produced a profit of five points so some money made overall. Can't believe we are at day five of Galway already - here's today's Irish Independent article:

SHOW COURT
THOSE of us who write about horseracing usually start looking at the potential runners a few days in advance, and unless the race in question has a strong ante-post market, we don't always have the luxury of forecast prices available. But strangely enough, this has proved beneficial to me as it forced me to learn how to price up races for myself. If the first thing you do is look at the prices when trying to figure out a race, your judgement will inevitably be clouded when trying to find the most likely winner. Although it's difficult, pricing up a race from scratch is something I'd encourage all readers to try and once the race is over, it's can be very interesting to compare your notes to the industry SPs and also the finishing positions of the horses. Yesterday morning, I priced up the Guinness Handicap (6.50) and had Dermot Weld's Show Court as a 6/1 shot so I nearly choked on my Coco Pops when the first round of tissue prices were issued which had him down at 20/1. Not all bookmakers will let you have a bet the day before but some will, so I got on the phone and rang around to see if anyone would bite anywhere near those odds. Occasionally, you will get your bet on at a great price doing this although lately, I find that bookmakers have become a lot more cautious and now seem to take their lead from the exchanges on the day of the race. Unfortunately, I didn't get on this time and the second round of forecast prices had him down at 8/1 - but that's still a couple of points higher than what I had him priced at so it's a value bet to me. I guess that some people will be put off by his latest race when last of six runners in a handicap at the Curragh but that was simply a case of shaking off the cobwebs after nine months off ,and he's best judged on his previous race when second in a good quality handicap at Leopardstown. He's down 1lb to 87 and we should see a rejuvenated animal today. Panama Hat (4/1) and Egyptian Warrior (5/1) have claims too, while Aidan O'Brien's topweight El Salvador also catches the eye with Donnacha O'Brien's claim likely to prove useful.
In the following Guinness E.B.F. Maiden (7.25), the O'Brien trained colt Falkirk (nap) is tipped at 2/1 to see out the mile and-a-half distance ahead of Weld's filly Massinga (15/8). He should have won a maiden at Gowran last time and was leading two out - but he carried his head a bit high and seemed to get distracted in the final furlong, eventually getting outbattled by Good Tradition. His loss was mostly down to inexperience but it was a big improvement on his debut and further progress can be expected today.  

Selections
5.10: Maxim Gorky
5.40: Bleu Ciel Et Rouge
6.15: Shamiran (e/w)
6.50: Show Court
7.25: Falkirk (nap)
7.55: Botanical Lady
8.25: Shu Lewis

Galway Hurdle betting - Thursday (Ladies Day)

A cracker of a day yesterday with four winners including an 11/2 and a 12/1 (16/1 on Betfair).

Another good day too for my place lays on www.waynebaileyracing.com which is going very well. For 2014, it's produced a profit of £1480 at Betfair SP to a £10 stake which is a fantastic return if I may say so myself.

It's Galway Hurdle day today which, as one would expect for the richest hurdle race in Ireland, is very competitive. Here's today's Irish Independent article:

PARLOUR GAMES
AS a general rule, British trained horses don't have a great record in the Galway Hurdle (4.55) although in 2010, Donald McCain's Overturn ran a cracker carrying 11st 6lbs to take the prize across the water for the first time since 1991. Since then, normal service has been resumed with horses trained by Paul Flynn and Michael Winters (twice) claiming the richest National Hunt race in Ireland. Of course, British trained horses only made up a small percentage of all runners down through the years so it would be foolish to overlook them based on a small sample size - and I've a sneaky feeling that John Ferguson's Parlour Games has a better chance than odds of 12/1 would suggest.  With four wins on the flat and two over hurdles, the six-year-old certainly has talent and even though his weight of 10st 12lbs off 141 might appear restrictive,  he gave the impression that he's plenty of improving to come when defying a penalty to land a facile victory in a novices' hurdle at Market Rasen a couple of weeks ago. That was just his third race since switching from the flat, and from what we've seen so far, a decent future awaits under the winter code. Leading Irish fancies Thomas Edison (4/1) and Bayan (7/1) will certainly be no pushovers but with some bookmakers offering five places on each-way bets, it's worth taking a chance on a talented horse at a double-figure price.
IN the opening beginners chase (1.50), Elegant Statesman can get the Ladies Day crowd off to a flying start with layers expected to open up around carpet (3/1) for the Henry De Bromhead trained gelding. The assessor had piled the lead on following some notable performances last season and it all came to a head when the son of Vinnie Roe could make no impression in a handicap at Leopardstown at Christmas. He got back on track when coming second in a maiden chase after seven months off at Kilbeggan recently, and the JP McManus owned seven-year-old has enough talent to see off the likes of Tylers Cottage and Our Man Zebo.
Half an hour later, Alelchi Inois (11/10) is napped to take the Guinness Harp Novice Chase (2.20). A French import, he won a maiden hurdle on his first start for Willie Mullins last year and he went in the notebook as one to watch over sticks; but later made no impact when stepped up in class to graded level. Mullins has since tried him out over fences and that's where his future lies it seems with two wins in that sphere in as many races.
Finally, Dermot Weld's Tested should take all the beating at 3/1 in the Listed Fillies Stakes (3.40). She finished mid-division in the Irish 1,000 Guineas, but bounced back to form when taking a Listed race with a bit to spare at Naas last time.

Selections
1.50: Elegant Statesman
2.20: Alelchi Inois (nap)
3.0: Sister Slew
3.40: Tested
4.15: Ground Invasion
4.55: Parlour Games (e/w)
5.35: Pirate Cove
6.05: Clondaw Farmer