Rollercoaster

One of those days today!

Made a loss of less than a fiver and you might think I'd be disappointed with that but I'm actually happy. Wasn't trading today - just traditional backing and laying, a good deal of which was in the place markets again. The reason I'm happy is that at one stage I was down nearly 100 quid and I thought it was only going to get worse - but it picked up in the second half of the day and I somehow got out alive:

Had it not been for one of my bets in the non-place markets, I would have actually made a profit today:

Overall though, I'm really warming to the place markets and while I don't want to count my chickens, I'm beginning to churn a profit at them. I've 217 bets under the belt in the place markets, mostly lays. I'm using a €20 liability on each bet and the profit at the moment is about 18pts, which equates to €357 in real terms.

Again, I'm around the block long enough to realise that it could be just a winning streak but I'll keep at it and please God it will continue to pay:

Irish 2,000 Guineas at the Curragh

Morning folks, I've decided to oppose Magician in the Irish Guineas. I might look foolish afterwards if he bolts up - but I just can't be having him at that price with the ground good to firm. Today's Indo article:

Place laying: nice 1/8 loser

Bagged myself a nice 1/8 loser laying in the place markets yesterday:

Sandanski was trading at 1.12 just before the off and I just thought that was way too low. Not often you get these ones right but for a liability of just over a score, I earned myself a nice €171 quid:

The thing to remember about the Betfair place markets is that non-runners don't change the number of places paid. So for example, if an eight runner race became seven runners, there are still 3 places paid on Betfair. I remember being caught out with this years back as a layer!

With a couple of non-runners and still 3 places on offer, Sandanski was being backed like it couldn't lose but anything can happen and it's often worth taking a small risk of twenty quid on these sorts with the chance of a big payout. It doesn't always work of course, but a few of these a month can really make a difference.

Overall, the place market betting and laying is still going well. I'm risking around €20 on each back or lay and after 132 bets, the profit is at €327. Here's a chart showing the ups and downs of the bank:

One problem I'm having (when I place the bets in the mornings) is that non-runners reduce your stakes as Betfair re-arrange the market. So some of the bets were not for twenty quid, but less. I've been a bit busy lately though so couldn't place the bets later in the day. Ideally, I should place them close to the off as the markets become liquid but sometimes I have to click the SP button and take a chance.

Anyway, all told, I'm happy with how it is going although yesterday's win skews the P&L and I don't want to be over-optimistic.

On the financial trading front, people are asking if the S&P500 bull run has come to an end following a load of selling yesterday and overnight:

Personally, I'm not too committed to being a bull or a bear and am happy to trade in either direction. Not sure what to do this morning though. There's quite a big gap trade on offer as the price now is a good deal lower than last night's close. Some decent money could be made if the Americans start buying again when they hit their desks in an hour or so but if I buy, I risk catching a falling knife. I'll see how we are doing around 11.30am but I reckon I'll buy and keep my stop loss around one and-a-half times my stake.

Saturday

Morning folks, today's Irish Independent article:

Howdy

Just popping in to say hello as I haven't posted in a while. It's been a busy time with work so I haven't had much time to blog.

A few updates:

Place backing and laying
Still going well. I'm only risking twenty quid per bet (or twenty quid liability when laying) and I'm mixing a few strategies together to try make a few quid. After 92 bets, I'm up about two ton so I'm very happy with that indeed as it's effectively 10pts. Again, very early days and I'm not getting ahead of myself but I'd love to crack the place markets as they've frustrated me over the years.

Financial trading
Still making new highs on the S&P and I'm just jobbing the market, buying the gaps and dips. I've an open trade today - the gap between this mornings price and last night's close was about 40 pips. I normally like to see a bigger gap but I've went ahead and bought the S&P to take a chance. The trade has just pushed into profit so fingers crossed the Americans, who have now hit their desks, are feeling patriotic.

Vicky Miller
As mentioned, she sadly broke her leg on Friday. We may just look at getting another horse, we'll have to wait and see. It's a tough game sometimes and it's really unfortunate but these things happen. I'll update if or when we get a new horse.

Book
I'm still writing my book about trading on the exchanges. When I started, I thought it would take me a few weeks but how wrong I was! I've about 80% of it done now (excluding editing) and I just want to get it finished now as I don't want the information too dated. As mentioned before, I've had interest from publishers but I really need to kick on and get it done.

Running
Still out running 2-3 times a week. My daughter joined Taekwondo recently (which I'm very happy about - great for discipline) so I'm out running each evening she goes to the dojang as it's not worth my while going home. Running is now fitted back into a schedule so it's much easier to be disciplined.

Anyway, that's it for now, I hope to post later in the week and perhaps I'll discuss the place betting in a bit more detail when time allows.

Profit from backing/laying in the place markets:

Saturday

Really bad news on Vicky Miller. Anyone who saw the race yesterday will have seen her going well but then pulled up. Sadly, she broker her leg when she came down wrong over one of the hurdles. It's a cruel game sometimes.

Saturday's Irish Independent article:

New horse, Betfair place betting

Morning all.

Looking forward to tomorrow. I've bought a (modest!) share in a horse named Vicky Miller via Winning Ways and she has an entry at Downpatrick (Friday) in the 5.55:

http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/racecards/10-05-2013/downpatrick/racecard/559941/irish-stallion-farms-european-breeders-fund-mares-maiden-hurdle

As some of you know, we bought a horse some years back but it didn't turn out too good as he kept picking up injuries and every time we planned a race for him, something would go wrong. That's the way it goes sometimes so hopefully we have a bit more luck with this one. The difference here though, is that we are leasing her. It's a great way to do it as you get the benefits of prizemoney if she wins but there's a simple upfront monthly fee. It's less complicated than when we went to Goffs and bought a horse ourselves.

She's raced in four bumpers so far, the best of which was when she was beaten by a head at Clonmel. This is her first race over hurdles so being honest, we don't really know how it will go but the bookmakers have chalked her up at 8/1 early doors.

She's in training with Gordon Elliott and we hope to have some good days out over the summer.

On the betting front, I've had a fairly good week. As you can see, most of the money was made from the place markets:

Having spent many years losing money in the place markets, I finally feel I'm getting somewhere and have been trying different things out in the past few weeks backing, laying and trading. I'm not getting too ahead of myself though, it could be just a lucky run. But I'd love to crack these markets as they have been a source of frustration over the years.

On the financial trading, the rally on the S&P 500 continues. I'm still just jobbing away on it, buying the dips but I've been staying away from selling as the market just keeps on pushing higher. It has to end some time but I'll take a few points here and there while it's going.

It was interesting to see Manchester United's shares stay relatively stable over the past few days and they currently sit just under 18.50:

I wondered if the price would fall with the news of Alex Ferguson leaving but prices actually rose over the past few days and then dropped slightly. I guess the news was already built into the price and the market knew he couldn't hang around for ever. I often moan about football but he's been absolutely incredible. The amount of years he gave to the club is amazing - especially in this day and age where people are disposable if they don't produce instant results.

Sir Alex Ferguson, back in the day:

Whoosh!

I mused in my last post whether the S&P would break through the 1600 barrier - and break through it sure did on Friday:

Still no sign of this rally ending - I guess there hasn't been much bad news about in a while. It's gotta end sometime but for now, I'm certainly staying on the bull side and buying any dips.

In the racing, we have the first Classic of the season. Absolutely can't wait! I'm having a decent sized bet on Dawn Approach although the drift in price since yesterday morning is somewhat unsettling. Here's today's Irish Independent article, best of luck if you are having a bet: