The main problem was trying to keep an eye on all the prices and trying to work out how much they have moved by so I automated it in a spreadsheet today.
Basically, the spreadsheet links in with Betfair through Betting Assistant and the live prices are displayed in the spreadsheet. I've set the spreadsheet up to alert me to back or lay by turning blue or pink once the market has changed. I'm getting better with excel and this is proving very handy!
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Hi Wayne,
ReplyDeleteAny chance of more details of this new strategy? Thanks
Well, it's still in test so I don't want to promote it as some sort of workable strategy just yet. But in basic terms, the idea is...
ReplyDeleteAt any given time, the price is what it is represents all known information about the horse. If we pause for a moment, the horse should have a 50% chance of going up and a 50% of going down, provided the price doesn't stay exactly still.
However, a horse that is on an upward or downward trend actually tends to keep moving with the trend and it's not 50/50. Say for example, a horse has moved 5% or 10% upwards. The theory says that it's no longer 50/50, the chances are it will continue to go up.
It also assumes that horses rise and fall further than people expect them to.
So basically, you wait for a price to rise or fall by a set amount (say 5% or 10% or whatever). When this happens, you follow the direction but keep a stop loss in place too.
Thanks for the reply, though don't completely understand the strategy yet. Is it similar to your trading 'resistance points' strategy? Do you just consider say the favourites, or you consider any horse? thanks
ReplyDeleteNo, it's a different strategy which measures how far a horse's price has moved. Once it moves a certain %, it then becomes a back or lay. Don't want to go into too much detail until I know it works in case people start following it and losing money.
ReplyDeleteOk, thanks. Please keep us updated. Cheers
ReplyDelete