Cheltenham Festival day three (Thursday)

Another great day yesterday with a 25/1 winner and a 9/2 winner, although I wish I had more on the big priced one. Never happy are we? !

Anyway, we push on with day three. Here's today's race by race guide for the Irish Independent.  Best of luck with your Festival bets.

1.30
Willie Mullins’ Vautour (15/8) will be all the rage for this but might be a bit on the short side so PTIT
ZIG is nominated at 100/30. Paul Nicholls’ gelding normally jumps very soundly but made a rare error and fell in the Ascot Chase. Worth another chance at a fair price.
2.05
Just one horse aged five (Pragada in 1988) has won the Pertemps Network Final since it was established in 1974 so Dawalan and Aqalim have their work cut out. At 7/1, CALL THE COPS gets the vote following a recent three-mile victory at Doncaster. Second in the 2013 Champion Bumper, Regal Encore is the Danger Horse under champion jockey Tony McCoy.
2.40
A good race for punters, just one Ryanair Chase winner in the last ten years was priced in double figures. Ma Filleule is popular in the betting but her recent Grade One second place was weak and preference is for DON COSSACK, which is shaping up to be a seriously talented chaser.

3.20
Both Zarkandar and Saphir Du Rheu are ones for the shortlist but don’t overlook DEDIGOUT each-way from Tony Martin’s yard. He’s in great form and will have no problem with the distance. He prefers the ground a little soft so a bit of rain overnight would help. Overpriced at 20/1.
4.00
One of the hardest races of the Festival for punters, Salut Flo (2012) was the only winner priced in single figures in the latest 14 renewals. I won’t spend too much on this but I’ll have a small each-way punt on DE BOITRON (50/1), which is said to have perked up following a breathing operation.
4.40
A tricky handicap for amateur riders, Sue Smith’s VINTAGE STAR looks generous at 16/1. He likes to race prominently so his jockey is best advised to get up ahead of the traffic early. He looked tired when third in the Grade Two Peter Marsh Chase but he’s had a nice break and may bounce back here.

Wayne's book Sports Trading on Betfair is out now:

 

Cheltenham Festival day two (Wednesday)

Morning folks, a cracker of a day yesterday with two 8/1 winners and an 11/1 winner. Hope it's not all downhill from here!

Here's today's race-by-race guide for the Irish Independent:

1.30
Willie Mullins’ yard provides the market leaders in Nichols Canyon and OUTLANDER and it’s the last named of the two which makes the most appeal at 7/2. A fivetime winner, he progressed enough to turn the tables on Martello Tower in a Grade Two at Leopardstown. Keep Vyta Du Roc onside in the place-only markets at 2/1.
2.05
Six-year-olds often struggle in the RSA Chase so today’s favourite Don Poli is opposed for that reason. David Pipe’s KINGS PALACE looks a good alternative at carpet (3/1) and the sevenyear-old made an impressive recovery to put Vivaldi Collonges to the sword at Newbury last time, having landed badly three fences out.
2.40
Favourites have a poor record in the Coral Cup so don’t give the bookmakers too much money here. MIJHAAR is a big outsider at 33/1 but gets a token each-way vote to get back to form and improve on a disappointing showing in a graded handicap at Sandown.
3.20

The 2013 winner Sprinter Sacre was not himself when losing his comeback race at Ascot but connections are keeping the faith in the horse. However, SIRE DE GRUGY can take advantage of any weakness and win this for the second year running for Gary and Jamie Moore.
4.00
Enda Bolger has a good record in this race, although he’s drawn a blank since 2009. The race’s most successful jockey, Nina Carberry, teams up with QUANTITATIVEEASING which has a good chance now back over his preferred distance.
4.40
Paul Nicholls’ QUALANDO gets a tentative vote at 14/1 following a recent novices’ hurdle success at Exeter but it’s not a race for heavy punting.
5.15
Willie Mullins’ horses are bound to be popular given his record in this race but a chance is taken today on David Pipe’s MOON RACER at 7/1 which showed very smart form to win two bumpers in 2014.

Wayne's book Sports Trading on Betfair is out now:

 

Cheltenham Festival day one (Tuesday)

Hi folks, here's my race-by-race guide for day one which I've wrote for the Irish Independent:

1.30

L'ami Serge has won all three races for Nicky Henderson and beat the talented Jolly's Cracked It by fourteen lengths in the Tolworth Hurdle at Sandown. The form from his Newbury Handicap has worked out well with a couple of those going on to win since, and 3/1 looks generous enough considering he's only 2lbs behind Douvan on official ratings.

2.05

This should be a straight-forward penalty kick for Un De Sceaux although at 8/13, it's not worth the risk. He beat Clarcam with ease in a Grade One at Leopardstown last time but Vibrato Valtat has plenty of talent too and has already won a number of Graded races for Paul Nicholls. At 11/10, Vibrato Valtat is a confident selection in the place only markets on the exchanges.

2.40

I don't like betting big in the handicaps but The Druids Nephew might be the one to side with now back over fences. He was out of his depth in the Cleeve Hurdle last time but he's smarter over fences and this race has been his target for some time.

3.20

Faugheen is clearly something special which you have to be to win a Champion Hurdle but he's never faced rivals of this calibre and his price is a little short. Last year's winner Jezki is a fair price at 4/1 and can get the better of regular sparring partner Hurricane Fly.

4.00

Annie Power is far superior to any of these but that's reflected in her short price. She hasn't raced since May which is a slight concern. As an each-way alternative, consider Carole's Spirit, a tough enough sort that never gives up.

4.40

Gordon Elliott's Cause Of Causes certainly wasn't disgraced when second in the Kim Muir last year and gets a tentative vote at 8/1 to trouble the likely favourite Very Wood. Alan King's Sego Success will love the trip and won't be too far off.

5.15

A tricky handicap in which stakes should be kept to a minimum. Generous Ransom is a progressive sort and deserves his place at the head of the market but Irish Cavalier makes more appeal each-way at 12/1. Rebecca Curtis' gelding was second to the favourite in a handicap here in January but first time cheekpieces may just sharpen her up.

Winter Derby Trial at Lingfield

I quite like this race - it usually attracts the same sort of horses each year and the form usually stands up. It's been one for the punters with the last seven favourites all winning. It could be close, but I fancy Grandeur to win this for the second year in-a-row. Today's column:

http://www.independent.ie/sport/horse-racing/grandeur-to-punish-bookies-for-second-time-at-lingfield-31009894.html

Wayne's book Sports Trading on Betfair is out now:

 

Living dangerously (part two)

Hi folks, just an update on the 'Living Dangerously' post I made a while back.

In short, it's a strategy whereby I lay big priced horses in the place markets based on my ratings. It's a risky strategy as it involves laying at prices of up to 100.0. You can read more by clicking on the link above.

Anyhow, here's a quick review. It's still in the black although I have hit a rough patch at the moment. Despite this, I still think it has plenty of potential and am happy with how it is going. I've earned just over a monkey (€500) from 787 bets to a €2 stake (I began in November) but as I say, it's been a little tricky lately. Still, I'll keep at it and if I earn another monkey in that space of time again, I'll be well pleased.

The stats:

Bets: 787
Unsuccessful bets: 15

Strike rate: 98.09%

Total profit: €501.75

The chart:

I'll keep going with it anyhow and update the blog now and again.

Wayne

Wayne's book Sports Trading on Betfair is out now:

Sports Trading on Betfair book: Free sample chapter

Hi all,

As most of you know, I published a book a few months ago called Sports Trading on Betfair. Thankfully, it's selling well and the response has been good. For those thinking about buying it, I've put up a sneak preview on my site.

To download this free sample chapter, click here:

FREE SAMPLE CHAPTER FROM 'SPORTS TRADING ON BETFAIR' BOOK

 Once again, thanks to those who have been in touch by email and best wishes for 2015.

Wayne

New Year 2015: thoughts and ideas

Happy New Year folks, hope 2014 was a profitable one.

I’ve often said that I’m not one for new year resolutions – January is just another month and I believe new goals and ideas should be set all the way through the year. In fact, people usually set themselves too many goals all at once every January, so much so that the changes become overwhelming, and thus they fail to continue with their resolutions.

But I suppose us humans like to compartmentalise our time on this earth, and January is as good a time as any to review the year just gone and look ahead so here’s a few thoughts about where I’m at and what I’d like to do. As I say, all of this won’t start on the 1^st January, rather, I’ll come back to this list throughout the year and add changes over time.

Book and newspaper column
I published my first book in 2014 ‘Sports Trading on Betfair’ which was a huge achievement. As a librarian by profession, I suppose I’ve always wanted to write a book but it was a hell of a lot harder than I anticipated. For 2015, I want to keep promoting it as the sales have been good. I’m toying with the idea of writing a less specialised book along the lines of ‘how to pick winners’ or ‘how to profit from horseracing’. I think a less technical, less graphic-heavy book would be much easier to write but I’ll hold off for now and concentrate on selling the one I have out already. Something to ponder though.

As always, I want to keep my Irish Independent column in the black for the upcoming year. Writing is something I enjoy doing and would like to do more of it. I'm very lucky to have a piece in a national newspaper each week so fingers crossed I get some good winners in 2015.

Financial trading
I went to cash some time back and have put this on the backburner. No big reason and I was showing a modest profit – it’s just time. As always, time is limited so I’m concentrating on making money on the exchanges, rather than trying to spread myself too thinly. It’s definitely something I continue to have an interest in though, and it’s definitely something I’ll come back to. I may look at some strategies which don’t take up a lot of time later on this year and build again from there.

Betfair trading and betting

Once again, getting time is the key but I hope to do as much as possible, especially in the summer months. I’ve been working on some automated trading setups which have proved slightly profitable so far so I’m keen to work on those in 2015. Ironically, I didn’t get a huge amount of trading done in 2014 as I was writing the book about it but I hope that can change in 2015.

Wayne Bailey Racing
It’s been a very good year for my tipping website www.waynebaileyracing.com with a profit of around €1888 to a €10 stake. I’ve quite a few loyal subscribers and you always get the odd few each month that only hang around for a while. But each subscription is a few quid so I’m hoping to continue to build the figures. I've been the top lay tipster for over a year now on Racing Index (a tipster proofing site) which helps a lot so I want to maintain my position at the head of the table.

New betting strategies
Alongside my traditional betting and trading, I came up with some new betting strategies in 2014. I want to continue to try these out and improve on them in 2015. If I can automate them, all the better. One that has potential is the laying certain outsiders in the place markets if they match my criteria (explained HERE). I’ve only been doing it for about a month but I’ve the best part of a monkey earned using a €2 stake. That was over 357 bets. Of course, all it takes is a couple of bad bets to knock me back down but as you can see, the graph is going in the right direction and I’m building a bit of a buffer for when the bad times come:

 

Health and fitness

Two major goals were ticked off in 2014. I completed the Insanity workout which was a damn hard few weeks. I also ran the Dublin marathon which was a good achievement too. People often say they get addicted to marathons but for me, it was very tough on the legs which always seem to pain once I run past 15K. I’ll never say never but I’m not in any rush to do another marathon and you have to listen to the body or else you will do it damage. That said, the feeling crossing the finish line was fantastic and you never know. For 2015, I will continue to keep fit and tone up using some light dumbbell work and running 5K two or three times a week. Last year, I found out I had high cholesterol so I had to change my diet to get it down. This means eating a lot healthier which is no bad thing and I’ll continue to improve my diet and watch the alcohol intake too in 2015.

That’s about it really – as I say, it’s not a good idea to start a load of goals in the first week in January. Too much change is overwhelming and unsustainable. If you are making any changes this year, do it gradually and add something new every month or so.

Thanks for all the comments, emails and well wishes in 2014, I hope all readers have an even better year in 2015.

Wayne

Wayne's book Sports Trading on Betfair is out now: