Euro 2012 betting

The European Championships kicked off yesterday - I'm looking forward to this and trying to make a couple of bob.

There's been some good pics going around facebook - this one made me smile:

Ireland are 4/1 to get out of the group and 100/1 to win it so we are very much outsiders on all fronts. I'd love to see us get out of the group - it would be a great boost for the country. It's great to see everyone get in the mood and enjoy themselves as there's so much doom and gloom at the moment. I have the house decked out in flags and whatnot so I'm looking forward to tomorrow night.

As regards bets, I have both Ireland and Croatia to score tomorrow at 6/5. For the tournament winner, I have the Netherlands who are trading around 6/1.

Not much quality racing on today - I've a few bets but I mainly focused on the football for my Irish Independent column:


***

I OFTEN wonder how many families have kept the glass milk bottles issued by Premier Dairies to celebrate the capital's 1,000th birthday in 1988. Or the millennium 50 pence coins – anyone remember those? During that year, the country went bananas issuing commemorative collectables and my grandfather always told me to keep them safe as they “would be worth a mint” by the time I was 30.
As an eight- year- old, I believed every word he said ( I think he believed it himself), but recently, I checked how much those milk bottles were selling for online and was gutted to see that the most you'd get for one now is a little more than a tenner.
The other big event that year was the European Championships and, even though I was quite young, I can easily recall how massive an occasion it was – being the first time Ireland had qualified for a major tournament. My father bought me a ‘ Jack's Army' cap and I hardly took it off all summer. Maybe it's from watching ‘ Reeling In The Years,' but I've a crystalclear recollection of Ireland beating England and the whole nation going into party mode.
MEMORIES
A draw with the Soviets and the loss to the Netherlands meant we didn't go further, but it was a taste of things to come with Italia ' 90 just around the corner.
Both my grandfather and father are no longer with us, but the ‘ Jack's Army' cap still survives and I've proudly hung it up over the TV in time for tomorrow as a reminder of those great times.

Nostalgia aside, we will have a tough task in getting out of the group and at 4/ 1, we are the outsiders of the four to make the quarter- finals.
Still, stranger things have happened, and a result against Croatia would give a fantastic boost to the campaign. I don't want to look too far ahead though, and I'm going to take each match and betting market as it comes.
Tomorrow night looks tricky, but a punt on both teams to score could be worth a shot and is available at 6/ 5.
They may have beaten us in ' 88 but, as regards the overall winner, there could be money to be made by backing THE NETHERLANDS at 13/ 2.
Some readers may remember me tipping them for the 2010 World Cup for which they reached the final, although they found it hard to keep their heads in the last game and the ref flashed his cards a record number of times for a final. If they show a bit more discipline in this tournament, they could go all the way.

In the racing, there's a distinct lack of quality contests on offer today, but the John Gosdentrained STARBOARD has claims in the Free Betting With Freebets. co. uk Conditions Stakes at Doncaster ( 4.20), priced around 11/ 8.

DO THE DOUBLE
Soccer
I'm backing the Netherlands to win Euro 2012 and it's worth noting that they have scored more goals than any other side in qualifying for the tournament. At a general 4/6, they should be a safe enough bet to get their campaign off to a good start this evening against Denmark.
Horseracing
Listen And Learn is impossible to oppose in the bumper at Worcester (3.50). He'll be short around 1/2, but he is bred for better things -- and judging by his debut race, when just denied by Billy Twyford, he should take all the beating.

EACH WAY OUTSIDER
AT 25/ 1 and higher, LAS VERGLAS STAR is a touch too big for the John Halewood Memorial Handicap at Chester ( 3.10). While he failed to make an impact in both his races this season, he was a decent handicapper last term winning two races. He's dropped a couple of pounds in the weights and is expected to show improvement this afternoon.

SELECTIONS

7.00Windsor: Bunce
3.10Chester: Las Verglas Star (e/ w)
3.50Worcester: Listen And Learn
4.20Doncaster: Starboard
Ireland v croatia: Both teams to score
Euro2012: Netherlands to win

 LAST WEEK'S WINNERS
Pastoral player: Won at 3/ 1
St nicholas abbey: Won at 8/ 11
Desert law (e/ w): Placed at 11/ 1
Camelot: Won at 8/ 13 

- Wayne Bailey

Time to take stock

Oh, The grand old Duke of York,

He had ten thousand men;

He marched them up to the top of the hill,

And he marched them down again.

And when they were up, they were up,

And when they were down, they were down,

And when they were only half-way up,

They were neither up nor down.

I've decided to temporarily suspend the inplay trades for a while until I get a chance to go through them with a fine tooth comb. As you can see, they started off brilliantly and went on a big upward curve but in recent weeks, they kinda fell off the cliff. I was marched right up the hill, and then came back down. I'm still in profit of around €80 to a €10 stake but having been up over €300 at one stage, I don't feel too satisfied with that anymore, considering how much effort and time is going into this. So I'm going to check out my records to check things like whether laying at 50pc is the best option, what races do and don't work etc. etc. I'll post any findings here and perhaps pick up the €500 challenge later on:

With regard to the Dutching, the 100 bet trial came to an end. CLICK HERE FOR MORE. I'm glad I beat the books and made a profit although it was nothing spectacular. I'll keep doing these myself at home for another 100 bets or so and see what comes up. 

Regarding the traditional back bets, I also hope to review those again this week. They are just about in front at the moment but have done precious little lately. Here's today's bet anyway:

Now that the bank holiday weekend etc is out of the way, I'm going to start getting up at 6am again. I was up that early this morning and it's amazing how much you can get done from 6am to 8am. I'll drop my daughter to school for 9am and then I'll go for a run. I'm still trying to keep fit and am meeting my goals on that front. Going running is great - it ensures I'm not sluggish during the day but also ensures I'm tired enough in the evenings to go to bed at about 12. Six hours sleep is enough for me at night although I know that eight is recommended. But as a man once said, sleeping is the closest thing you can do to being dead, so you don't want to be doing too much of it. 

I've made it my business to start trading the financials again from this week - I was doing well at that but kinda got out of it for a while. I've had a look but can't find any trades today but I'll keep my eyes peeled. 

In a hurry

Sorry - not much time for a write up as I want to take my daughter out today as it is sunny - if I get a chance, I'll post some updates on things later this evening but briefly...

Inplay trades - starting to suffer again. I'm going to suspend the €500 challenge on these until I get a chance to review them (hopefully I'll get to do that this evening). They were flying at first and have since nosedived - I'll sift through my data and see what comes up. I'll keep doing them for now but not as part of the challenge. I'll pick up on that again soon and post about it accordingly.

Dutching - Today's six bets will bring it neatly to 100 bets. Fingers crossed I get a few points today and finish a few points ahead. I'll then consider what to do next.

Here's today's traditional back bets:

Today's inplay trades:

The Derby, Dublin v Louth

It was a good day all round yesterday with a nice return on my Irish Independent column. I enjoyed the Derby and you've got to hand it to Camelot and Joseph O'Brien - for a moment, I thought he'd left it too late and his price drifted out to 5.5 in-running but he powered on home and he really is a class act. I hope he goes on to the St Leger to try complete the triple crown as he'd be the first horse since Nijinsky to do it.

I had St Nicholas Abbey in a double and the second part of that is for Dublin to score first today so fingers crossed. That match throws-in at 4.30 so I look forward to that. Dublin should win by a country mile in fairness and their price of sixteen to one on is about right.

I've one traditional back bet today and a few inplay trades. Best of luck with your betting/trading:

Back bet:

Inplay trades:

Epsom Derby 2012, Dutching, Trading on Betfair

A good weekend of sport ahead with the Epsom Derby and Dublin playing in Croke Park tomorrow. I don't think I'll get to go but I'll get to see it on the box at least. As regards the Derby, it's hard to see past Camelot although Bonfire could be a good each-way 'bet to nothing'.

Busy enough day on the Dutching trial which is currently about 5pts in profit. I've also a few inplay trades which are posted below. Here's today's Irish Independent article with my thoughts on the day:

***

STUDENTS of American politics may be familiar with the life and times of Richard 'Boss' Croker, who was born in Blackrock, Cork, in 1843.
Croker's family left for America when he was a small child, so he grew up in New York where he later became head of Tammany Hall, a hugely influential political organisation, which regularly assisted the massive immigrant population in the city.
But it's fair to say that not all members of Tammany Hall were upstanding pillars of society, and the colourful Croker was known to receive large bribes from the owners of saloons, brothels and illegal gambling dens.
His interest in gambling, however, was not confined to the backstreet bookies of Brooklyn and in 1907, a horse he owned named Orby won Britain's most prestigious race, the Epsom Derby.
Croker died in his native Ireland in 1922 leaving behind a $4m fortune and the pall-bearers included Arthur Griffith and Oliver St John Gogarty.
The reason I mention Croker is because this year's Derby (4.0 Epsom) will have just nine runners and the last time we had a field that small was when Orby was ridden to victory in the colours of Croker 105 years ago.
achievement
Interestingly, Orby was actually the first Irish-trained winner of the race, which was a major achievement at the time, considering the Derby had been on the go since 1780.
Of course, we are well accustomed to Irish trained victories these days with numerous winners this century alone -- and it's no surprise to see the Aidan O'Brien-trained Camelot head the market at 8/15 following an impressive victory in the Guineas.
I must admit that I wasn't that keen on the three-year-old for that race, opting to back Caspar Netscher instead, but I've since jumped on the bandwagon (albeit a little late) and I don't think there's much point in opposing today, especially considering the size of the field.
His breeding suggests he'll show yet more improvement over a mile and a half and this one could go on to become a real star.
For each-way backers, Bonfire could be a good 'bet to nothing' around 4/1 and he's the one most likely to breathe down the favourite's neck. He should also get the trip and if the assessor has it right, the Andrew Balding-trained colt only has two pounds to make up on the favourite.
But backing horses at those prices won't pay for many Bank Holiday pints of plain, so attention is turned to Haydock, where Pastoral Player makes appeal at 6/1 in the Group Three Timeform Jury stakes (2.35).
This very smart handicapper confirmed his ability when winning a valuable handicap at Ascot in October, following on from a few tricky contests where things just didn't go his way.
The handicapper put him up 6lbs for his efforts, but that didn't seem to hamper him too much on his return to racing this season when finishing sixth of 24 runners in the Betfred Victoria Cup.
Expect the five-year-old to rattle the cage of likely favourite Red Jazz today.

Each-way Outsider
AT 12/1, Desert Law is overpriced for the Investec Specialist Bank 'dash' Handicap at Epsom (3.15). He almost always races at six furlongs, but, having watched a few replays of him in action, I get the impression that he'll enjoy the minimum distance today.

Today's Selections
2.35 Haydock: Pastoral Player
2.40 Epsom: St Nicholas Abbey
3.10 Haydock: Mohedian Lady (e/w)
3.15 Epsom: Desert Law (e/w)
4.00 Epsom: Camelot

Do the double
Horse racing
St Nicholas Abbey won the 2011 Diamond Jubilee Coronation Cup at Epsom and can do so again today (2.40) priced around 8/15. His defeat at The Curragh last time is excused as the pacemaker left him with too much to do, but his previous second placing by a neck in the Sheema Classic at Meydan proved that the four-year-old had retained all of his old ability.
Gaelic football
As one would expect, Fine Gael TD and Louth manager Peter Fitzpatrick has been talking up his county's chances ahead of their championship clash with Dublin. But realistically, the gap between these teams is massive and it's almost impossible to envisage the Wee County coming out on top at Croke Park tomorrow.
The bookies have the Dubs as virtual certs at 1/16, but more value can be had by backing Dublin to score first at 8/15 with Ladbrokes.

- Wayne Bailey

Irish Independent

Dutching on Betfair

I'm up to bet 82 in my Dutching trial (of 100 bets) and am currently in profit of nearly €50 to a €10 stake.

I guess I'm pleased with this although as you can see from the chart below, the profit was over €100 at one stage then dipped into the red, and then recovered again.

While I'm happy to be in profit, I much prefer a smoother ride!  Still though, I've built some data to work with and perhaps I can do some analysis and improve things further. I'll keep going until the 100 bets anyway and report back then:

Friday

Apologies, haven't been around much this week. I've a few dutch bets for today and a few traditional back bets - had too much on and didn't get a chance to do the inplay trades. Hope to get back on track tomorrow.

Back bets: