Saturday's bets

Morning folks,

Sorry for the lack of updates recently. As always, I'm up to my eyes with diffrent projects and time is limited. I'll do a review soon. For now, here's today's Indo article:

Galway & Goodwood betting, Saturday

A cracker of a day yesterday with a 12/1 (18/1 on Betfair) and a 9/2 winner. More of the same today please!


Here's today's Irish Independent article:

CALL VINNIE
IN Monday's Irish Independent, I tipped up the Dermot Weld trained Call Vinnie for the bumper and as he picked up around the home turn, I called for a round of drinks at the bar with the five-year-old seemingly home and hosed. In-running punters on the machine thought so too and gelding traded as low as 1/4 before being outstayed by the more experienced bumper horse Princely Conn. The pints went down well with the lads but it was an expensive reminder for me that the hill at Galway can empty out a tank in a flash, and just like Cheltenham, you should never count your chickens at Ballybrit until the horse is safely across the line. Still, the experience will have done some good and McNamara teams up with the point-to-point winner once again this evening to hopefully make amends in the Ladbrokes Top Treble Flat Race (5.55). At 7/4, I reckon there's a good chance of getting my money back although I've a slight concern that Tony Martin's Fill Your Hands (9/2) may scupper the bet, having finished third in a bumper at Kilbeggan in May. As we saw with Thomas Edison in the Galway Hurdle this week,  Martin certainly knows how to prepare a horse for a specific race and the market should be  a good guide to his chances.
Dessie Hughes' Off The Charts  has claims at 6/1 in the Ladbrokes Handicap Hurdle (3.10) but the Martin Brassil trained topweight Celestial Prospect gets my vote at 7/1 following a minor success at Cork last time. Previously, he beat the smart handicapper Acapulco Gold in a competitive handicap hurdle Gowran and I suspect the assessor does not yet have his measure despite his rating going up by a stone to 134 in the space of three months.
In the south of England at Goodwood, Aidan O'Brien's Venus de Milo can raid the lion's share of the £200,000 prize on offer for the Markel Insurance Nassau Stakes (3.15), priced around 9/4. Second in the Group One Pretty Polly Stakes at Irish HQ, she beat Dazzling to win the Munster Oaks at Cork in June and it will be disappointing if she doesn't make the most of the opportunity in what is a somewhat substandard renewal of this Group One. The main concern is that her best form is mostly over a mile and-a-half but unlike some of her rivals, she's a proven performer on firmer ground which may prove decisive. Of the rest, you'd expect Alain de Royer-Dupré's Narniyn to give a good account of herself at 7/2. She's won a number of Group Threes and must be respected although she seems to act best on soft going and might find today's conditions a bit too quick. Mango Diva (4/1) is the best of the domestic challengers for Michael Stoute.  Her trainer has won this race seven times (most recently in 2004) and some of her best races came in and around this distance. 

EACH-WAY
AS usual, the Stewards' Cup at Goodwood (3.50) is extremely competitive, and Muthmir is sure to prove popular following his demolition job in the Sky Bet Dash last week. But all that is priced in to his odds of 6/1 and preference is for Ninjago which is expected to go off at a decent each-way price of 14/1. The Richard Hannon trained colt was fifth in this race last year and it might be worth forgiving a poor showing in the Wokingham last time out. 

*Last week's each-way selection, Dont Bother Me, was placed at 16/1. 

DO THE DOUBLE
GAELIC FOOTBALL: MEATH take on Armagh at five o' clock today but having been torn apart by Dublin in the Leinster Final, confidence in the Royal camp is bound to be low. If they couldn't muster up a fight against their old rivals Dublin, it's hard to see them progressing much further. Meanwhile Armagh come here in decent form following two good victories over Tyrone and Roscommon and momentum is on their side. At 4/5 to qualify, The Orchard County are a confident bet this evening.
RACING: AIDAN O'Brien's Marchese Marconi is a half brother to Endless Power and shaped well on his hurdle debut when second of 24 runners at Punchestown back in May. He's also useful on the flat and has since won a minor event for amateur riders at Limerick. He remains open to improvement over hurdles and a price of 11/8 seems reasonable in the opening Ladbrokes Mobile Maiden Hurdle at Galway this afternoon (2.35). 

* Last week's double was successful at an overall price of just over 11/2. 

Today's selections
2.35 Galway: Marchese Marconi
3.10 Galway: Celestial Prospect
3.15 Goodwood: Venus de Milo
3.45 Galway: Spryt
3.50 Goodwood: Ninjago (e/w)
5.55 Galway: Call Vinnie

Galway Races bettting, Friday

Good morning folks,

Just a couple of short priced winners yesterday so nothing special, although my place lays for Wayne Bailey Racing produced a profit of five points so some money made overall. Can't believe we are at day five of Galway already - here's today's Irish Independent article:

SHOW COURT
THOSE of us who write about horseracing usually start looking at the potential runners a few days in advance, and unless the race in question has a strong ante-post market, we don't always have the luxury of forecast prices available. But strangely enough, this has proved beneficial to me as it forced me to learn how to price up races for myself. If the first thing you do is look at the prices when trying to figure out a race, your judgement will inevitably be clouded when trying to find the most likely winner. Although it's difficult, pricing up a race from scratch is something I'd encourage all readers to try and once the race is over, it's can be very interesting to compare your notes to the industry SPs and also the finishing positions of the horses. Yesterday morning, I priced up the Guinness Handicap (6.50) and had Dermot Weld's Show Court as a 6/1 shot so I nearly choked on my Coco Pops when the first round of tissue prices were issued which had him down at 20/1. Not all bookmakers will let you have a bet the day before but some will, so I got on the phone and rang around to see if anyone would bite anywhere near those odds. Occasionally, you will get your bet on at a great price doing this although lately, I find that bookmakers have become a lot more cautious and now seem to take their lead from the exchanges on the day of the race. Unfortunately, I didn't get on this time and the second round of forecast prices had him down at 8/1 - but that's still a couple of points higher than what I had him priced at so it's a value bet to me. I guess that some people will be put off by his latest race when last of six runners in a handicap at the Curragh but that was simply a case of shaking off the cobwebs after nine months off ,and he's best judged on his previous race when second in a good quality handicap at Leopardstown. He's down 1lb to 87 and we should see a rejuvenated animal today. Panama Hat (4/1) and Egyptian Warrior (5/1) have claims too, while Aidan O'Brien's topweight El Salvador also catches the eye with Donnacha O'Brien's claim likely to prove useful.
In the following Guinness E.B.F. Maiden (7.25), the O'Brien trained colt Falkirk (nap) is tipped at 2/1 to see out the mile and-a-half distance ahead of Weld's filly Massinga (15/8). He should have won a maiden at Gowran last time and was leading two out - but he carried his head a bit high and seemed to get distracted in the final furlong, eventually getting outbattled by Good Tradition. His loss was mostly down to inexperience but it was a big improvement on his debut and further progress can be expected today.  

Selections
5.10: Maxim Gorky
5.40: Bleu Ciel Et Rouge
6.15: Shamiran (e/w)
6.50: Show Court
7.25: Falkirk (nap)
7.55: Botanical Lady
8.25: Shu Lewis