Sorry for the lack of updates lately, I've been mad busy
with work. A quick review of the past week or two.
Place lays have been absolutely terrible. Took an absolute
hammering and they went from over 100pts profit to about 79pts profit:
A drop of 20pts is tough to take although looking at the
chart gives me some comfort as it shows the overall long term picture.
Hopefully they will get back on track soon.
Part of my challenge included some place laying so that's
taken a hit - I'll update that with a proper P&Lwhen I get a bit of time.
On a positive note, the strategy I mentioned a few weeks ago
(automated inplay trading) is working quite well. I'm only using €10 stakes at
the moment as it's still on test but so far so good. Basically, I set up a spreadsheet
with Gruss Software with a load of triggers to place bets under certain
conditions in-running. It's more or less an automated version of what I was
doing myself although you can never totally replicate how you would act in any
given situation.
At the moment, if the trade goes well I earn €4 and if it
goes wrong I lose €2. The strike rate is just under 50% which is fantastic as
it produces around 15 trades a day. Unfortunately, it's not as simple when you
want to scale up. A lot of people add a zero and think that if they were using
€100, they would be earning €40 per winning trade. But the more you scale up,
the bigger the effect your stakes have on the market. This is especially true of
thinly traded in-running markets such as Irish racing. While €100 might be OK, €1000 might be totally out of place.
But I'll keep plugging away and have decided to increase the
stakes this weekend in preparation for Royal Ascot. Not sure how it will work
there but at least it's been a good distraction to work on while the place lays
were taking a hammering!
I'm opposing Australia with the possibility of the ground softening up. It's a funny one - if he wins, a lot of people will be kicking themselves because O'Brien has been on about how good he is for months. We can't say we were not told about him, that's for sure but still, I reckon he's just a bit too short at 6/4. True Story wouldn't want it too soft either but looks a decent value bet at a double figure price.
Aidan O'Brien has described Australia as the best horse he has trained
As I watched the build-up to the Carl Froch
versus George Groves fight last week, I quietly hoped to myself that
the match-up would go some way to living up to the hype the TV stations
were generating.
Thankfully, we got as far as the eighth round before Froch
knocked out Groves, so I guess you could say the spectators got some
bang for their buck, so to speak.
But so often in that sport you can be left feeling empty-changed when a fighter fails to live up to his billing.
Just
like boxing, racing relies heavily on a good story to promote the
sport, and each generation needs a Frankel or a Nijinsky, a Kauto Star
or an Arkle.
Trying to find the next big star is what racing is
all about for owners, trainers, jockeys and punters alike, and there's
no bigger stage for a horse to make his mark than the Derby, which goes to post today at 4.0.
Famously described by Aidan O'Brien as the best he's ever trained, Australia
comes to Epsom with a lot of expectation on his shoulders although
whether he can live up to his lofty description remains open to
question.
It is often said that great horses can handle various
types of conditions, but O'Brien has made it clear that Australia would
prefer good ground.
I don't think O'Brien is trying to make excuses, but I sometimes
wonder if he regrets describing the colt in such glowing terms so early
on.
As of yesterday, the weather forecast for the Surrey area was
for heavy, thundery showers, so it was no surprise to see Australia's
price drift out since Monday from 4/5 to 6/4.
A son of Galileo and
Ouija Board (Derby and Oaks winners respectively), his breeding
certainly suggests he'll step up in distance and improve on his third
place in the Guineas.
Coupled with the fact that he's top of the
official ratings in such a good quality race, this would make him hard
to oppose under normal circumstances – but I still feel he's too short,
given the doubts about the weather, despite the recent ease in price.
One horse that won't be inconvenienced by the ground is Kingston Hill – Roger Varian's colt won the Racing Post Trophy on poor going as a two-year-old.
He
failed to make an impression in the Guineas and some have questioned
whether he can cut it at the top, but he should improve over the middle
distances and remains a very live threat to the favourite at 7/1.
However, at 12/1, True Story gets the nod this afternoon for the Saeed bin Suroor/Kieren Fallon
combination. He dismissed his rivals in eye-catching style in the
Feilden Stakes at Newmarket back in April (beating subsequent winner
Barley Mow), and he also appears to be the type that would appreciate
the step up in trip.
While his third place in the Dante seemed a
little disappointing at the time, he was only a length and-a-half behind
the winner, The Grey Gatsby, which has since gone on to win the French
Derby.
The last horse to win the Epsom Derby at a double-figure
price was Luca Cumani's High-Rise (20/1) in 1998 on soft enough ground
and, while True Story wouldn't want it heavy, his trainer reckons
good-to-soft would be fine.
DO THE DOUBLE Racing
Cirrus Des Aigles is a worthy favourite at 4/5 for the Coronation Cup at Epsom (2.40).
Despite
the fact he's now aged eight, he showed no signs of slowing down when
taking the Group One Prix Ganay at Longchamp and followed up with a
recent win in the Prix d'Ispahan. With his preferred soft ground a
distinct possibility, he should have enough to see off the likes of
Flintshire and Talent. Gaelic football
Jim
Gavin has said there are no guarantees in sport and that tomorrow's
opponents, Laois, are one of Dublin's biggest threats in Leinster this
year.
The O'Moore County deserve respect and it's good to see that
Dublin are taking nothing for granted. However, at 1/40, it's almost
impossible to see any other result other than a comprehensive victory
for the champions.
Back Bernard Brogan to score a goal anytime at 11/10 (Paddy Power).
EACH-WAY OUTSIDER
THE
Peter Crate-trained Elusivity (10/1) slips in to the Epsom Dash (3.15)
at the bottom of the weights at 8st 5lbs and he's definitely one to
watch off a lenient mark of 88. He has found himself in the frame twice
this year off that rating and is due to go up 2lb for his latest race at
York, so he comes here today effectively a couple of pounds well-in.
- See more
at:
http://www.independent.ie/sport/horse-racing/true-story-can-pull-off-fairytale-epsom-shock-for-fallon-30336009.html#sthash.iLMnG0q5.dpuf
TRUE STORY
AS I watched the build up to the Carl Froch versus George Groves fight last
week, I quietly hoped to myself that the matchup would go some way to living up
to the hype the TV stations were generating. Thankfully, we got as far as the
eight round before Froch knocked out Groves
so I guess you could say the spectators got some bang for their buck, so to
speak. But so often in that sport, you can be left feeling empty-changed when a
fighter fails to live up to his billing. Just like boxing, racing relies
heavily on a good story to promote the sport and each generation needs a
Frankel or a Nijinsky, a Kauto Star or an Arkle. Trying to find the next big
star is what racing is all about for owners, trainers, jockeys and punters alike,
and there's no bigger stage for a horse to make his mark than the Derby, which goes to post
today at 4.0. Famously described by Aidan O'Brien as the best he's ever
trained, Australia
comes to Epsom with a lot of expectation on his shoulders although whether or
not he can live up to his lofty description remains open to question. It is
often said that great horses can handle various types of conditions but O'Brien
has made it clear that Australia
would prefer good ground. I don't think O'Brien is trying to make excuses but I
sometimes wonder if he regrets describing the colt in such glowing terms so
early on. As of yesterday, the weather forecast for the Surrey area was for
heavy, thundery showers so it was no surprise to see Australia's price drift out since Monday
from 4/5 to 6/4. A son of Galileo and Ouija Board (Derby and Oaks winners respectively), his breeding
certainly suggests he’ll step up in distance and improve on his third place in
the Guineas.
Coupled with the fact that he's top of the official ratings in such a good
quality race would make him hard to oppose under normal circumstances - but I
still feel he's too short with doubts about the weather, despite the recent
ease in price. One horse that won’t be inconvenienced by the ground is Kingston
Hill and Roger Varian's colt won the Racing Post Trophy on poor going as a
two-year-old. He failed to make an impression in the Guineas and some have questioned
whether he can cut it at the top, but he should improve over the middle
distances and remains a very live threat to the favourite at 7/1. But at 12/1, True Story gets the nod this afternoon
for the Saeed bin Suroor/Kieren Fallon combination. He dismissed his rivals in
eye-catching style in the Feilden Stakes at Newmarket back in April (beating subsequent
winner Barley Mow in the process), and he also appears to be the type that
would appreciate the step up in trip. While his third place in the Dante seemed
a little disappointing at the time, he was only a length and-a-half behind the winner,
The Great Gatsby, which has since gone on to win the French Derby. The last
horse to win the Epsom Derby at a double-figure price was Luca Cumani's
High-Rise (20/1) in 1998 on soft enough ground, and While True Story wouldn’t
want it heavy, his trainer reckons good-to-soft would be fine.
Each-way
THE Peter Crate trained Elusivity (10/1) slips in to the Epsom
Dash (3.15) at the bottom of the weights at 8st 5lbs and he's definitely one to
watch off a lenient mark of 88. He's found himself in the frame twice this year
off that rating and is due to go up 2lbs for his latest race at York; so he
comes here today effectively a couple of pounds well-in.
DO
THE DOUBLE
GAELIC FOOTBALL: JIM Gavin has said there are no guarantees in sport and that
tomorrow’s opponents, Laois, are one of Dublin’s
biggest threats in Leinster this year. The O'Moore
County deserve respect and it’s good to see that Dublin are taking nothing for
granted - but at 1/25, it’s almost impossible to see any other result other
than a comprehensive victory for the champions. Back Bernard Brogan to score anytime at 11/10 (Paddy Power). RACING: Cirrus Des Aigles is a worthy favourite at 4/5 for the Coronation Cup at Epsom
(2.40). Despite the fact he's now aged eight, he showed no signs of slowing
down when taking the Group One Prix Ganay at Longchamp, and followed up with a
recent win in the Prix d'Ispahan. With his preferred soft grounda distinct possibility, he should have enough
to see off the likes of Flintshire and Talent this afternoon.
Aidan O'Brien has described Australia as the best horse he has trained
As I watched the build-up to the Carl Froch
versus George Groves fight last week, I quietly hoped to myself that
the match-up would go some way to living up to the hype the TV stations
were generating.
Thankfully, we got as far as the eighth round before Froch
knocked out Groves, so I guess you could say the spectators got some
bang for their buck, so to speak.
But so often in that sport you can be left feeling empty-changed when a fighter fails to live up to his billing.
Just
like boxing, racing relies heavily on a good story to promote the
sport, and each generation needs a Frankel or a Nijinsky, a Kauto Star
or an Arkle.
Trying to find the next big star is what racing is
all about for owners, trainers, jockeys and punters alike, and there's
no bigger stage for a horse to make his mark than the Derby, which goes to post today at 4.0.
Famously described by Aidan O'Brien as the best he's ever trained, Australia
comes to Epsom with a lot of expectation on his shoulders although
whether he can live up to his lofty description remains open to
question.
It is often said that great horses can handle various
types of conditions, but O'Brien has made it clear that Australia would
prefer good ground.
I don't think O'Brien is trying to make excuses, but I sometimes
wonder if he regrets describing the colt in such glowing terms so early
on.
As of yesterday, the weather forecast for the Surrey area was
for heavy, thundery showers, so it was no surprise to see Australia's
price drift out since Monday from 4/5 to 6/4.
A son of Galileo and
Ouija Board (Derby and Oaks winners respectively), his breeding
certainly suggests he'll step up in distance and improve on his third
place in the Guineas.
Coupled with the fact that he's top of the
official ratings in such a good quality race, this would make him hard
to oppose under normal circumstances – but I still feel he's too short,
given the doubts about the weather, despite the recent ease in price.
One horse that won't be inconvenienced by the ground is Kingston Hill – Roger Varian's colt won the Racing Post Trophy on poor going as a two-year-old.
He
failed to make an impression in the Guineas and some have questioned
whether he can cut it at the top, but he should improve over the middle
distances and remains a very live threat to the favourite at 7/1.
However, at 12/1, True Story gets the nod this afternoon for the Saeed bin Suroor/Kieren Fallon
combination. He dismissed his rivals in eye-catching style in the
Feilden Stakes at Newmarket back in April (beating subsequent winner
Barley Mow), and he also appears to be the type that would appreciate
the step up in trip.
While his third place in the Dante seemed a
little disappointing at the time, he was only a length and-a-half behind
the winner, The Grey Gatsby, which has since gone on to win the French
Derby.
The last horse to win the Epsom Derby at a double-figure
price was Luca Cumani's High-Rise (20/1) in 1998 on soft enough ground
and, while True Story wouldn't want it heavy, his trainer reckons
good-to-soft would be fine.
DO THE DOUBLE Racing
Cirrus Des Aigles is a worthy favourite at 4/5 for the Coronation Cup at Epsom (2.40).
Despite
the fact he's now aged eight, he showed no signs of slowing down when
taking the Group One Prix Ganay at Longchamp and followed up with a
recent win in the Prix d'Ispahan. With his preferred soft ground a
distinct possibility, he should have enough to see off the likes of
Flintshire and Talent. Gaelic football
Jim
Gavin has said there are no guarantees in sport and that tomorrow's
opponents, Laois, are one of Dublin's biggest threats in Leinster this
year.
The O'Moore County deserve respect and it's good to see that
Dublin are taking nothing for granted. However, at 1/40, it's almost
impossible to see any other result other than a comprehensive victory
for the champions.
Back Bernard Brogan to score a goal anytime at 11/10 (Paddy Power).
EACH-WAY OUTSIDER
THE
Peter Crate-trained Elusivity (10/1) slips in to the Epsom Dash (3.15)
at the bottom of the weights at 8st 5lbs and he's definitely one to
watch off a lenient mark of 88. He has found himself in the frame twice
this year off that rating and is due to go up 2lb for his latest race at
York, so he comes here today effectively a couple of pounds well-in.
- See more
at:
http://www.independent.ie/sport/horse-racing/true-story-can-pull-off-fairytale-epsom-shock-for-fallon-30336009.html#sthash.iLMnG0q5.dpuf
Not a bad week just gone with a profit of just under four
ton made:
That brings the bank for my €1,000 challenge to €1,160.92
which is pleasing enough. The money was made through a combination of my place
lays, some back bets and some trading and took in a total of 155 markets.
I'm particularly pleased with my place lays - I'm proofing
them to Racing
Index and after yesterday, I've now pushed past 100 points profit to a 1
point stake over the space of just under a year. The next best tipster has 23 points profit so it's a pretty darn
good performance, if I may say so myself:
Some high points in the week just gone included laying Bespoke Lady at 1/7:
I'd €144 on that (which was only a liability of a score) so
it was a nice few quid earned.
While I haven't exactly made any money from it, the next
Celtic manager market has been interesting. I got a tip to back Owen Coyle so I
backed him at 3.0. Sure enough, his price came in and I layed him off at 1.9.
In retrospect, I should have greened up rather than laying with the same stake as it now looks likely that Roy Keane
will take over but I still have a no risk bet on Coyle which is grand:
That's the thing about betting or trading the next manager
markets: it's not actually about who's going to get the job, it's about
predicting how the betting public are going to react to stories. That's how the
money is made. I've no hard data to back this up but I reckon a great strategy
in these markets is to lay the field around evens or odds on. Rumours abound,
fuelled by the media (even more so than the horseracing) and people over react.
In the Celtic manager market , for example, Owen Coyle, Henrik Larsson and now
Roy Keane have all been odds on.
As I say, I haven't made any money on it and my free bet is
unlikely to come in - but next manager markets are something I might look into
more.
Anyway, I've a busy enough day today with the racing so I'll
sign off now. Best of luck with your bets,
WAYNE Bailey was born in Dublin where he still lives with daughter. A librarian by profession, Wayne has always had a passion for betting and trading and has spent various periods throughout his life as a professional gambler. In 2007, he graduated from University College Dublin with a degree in social science and information studies and four years later, he completed a diploma in financial trading from the Irish Institute of Financial Trading. More recently, he studied psychology and the behaviour of the human mind. Wayne is a regular contributor to various newspapers and websites in the UK and Ireland, and he currently pens the Betting Ring column which enjoys a large dedicated following every Saturday in Ireland’s largest selling newspaper The Irish Independent. Wayne's book 'Sports Trading on Betfair' was published in 2014. Email: waynebaileyracing@gmail.com
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