Trading software

Thursday, January 17, 2013

Favourites betting strategy

Just a quick update on the favourites strategy. It's going well at the moment but I've decided it will be a test over 100 bets before I hit it with serious money. At the moment, I've had 32 winners from 62 bets (51.62%) and the profit to Betfair SP to a €10 stake (assuming commission is 5pc) is exactly €190. The average BSP was 2.91.

If the profit is anywhere near €300 when I finish the 100 bet trial, I'll be very happy. Again, it's early days and I'm not taking anything for granted - indeed, the 'form study' bets took off like this and hit 30pts profit before declining over the space of a year and finished up around 5pts in front. I've put those bets on ice at the moment to have a think about what to do with them.

Anyway, here's a chart showing progress of the favs strategy:

As I say, I'll hold off on the big stakes for now but if the chart is going in a similar direction after 100 bets, I'll give it a lash with a bank of a monkey (€500) or maybe one large (€1000) if I have enough to put by.

There's one bet for today, Brick Red, 3.20 Wincanton. It'll probably go off around 5/6. Here's what Timeform have to say:

Strong traveller who threatened to come good in handicaps, and did so emphatically when justifying strong support at Ludlow last week. Track will suit and well-in under a penalty.

Enjoy the day,


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