Chester draw bias

The draw bias at Chester is well known so it's surprising that some profit can still be made from backing the low drawn horses.

Chester is Britain's tightest racecourse so the advantage of getting a low draw on the inside rail is significant. The handicap sprints can prove particularly lucrative especially if the horse is one of the top horses in the ratings.

Here's a quick little system which has made me a nice few bob down through the years:

* Race is a handicap sprint (5 and 6 furlong)
* Horse is drawn in stall one or two
* Horse is in the top three in the weights
 

This strategy has produced 32 winners from 114 bets since 2003 and a profit of €494 to a €10 stake at SP. Since Betfair SP was introduced in 2008, the profit has been €525 to a €10 stake, assuming you were on the maximum 5% commission.

For this reason and more, I'll be backing Royal Rascal in the 2.30, as discussed in today's Irish Independent article. 

Have a good day,

Wayne

Chester racecourse:

The week just gone

Having recorded a profit of €424 last week, I'm afraid this week didn't go so well and the loss in the last seven days was €128:

Not the end of the end of the world but it was a frustrating time nonetheless. Thursday was particularly bad and I got hammered with about seven or eight losing place lays in a row. With a strike rate of around 56%, I suppose eight losers in a row is unlucky but also to be expected now and again.

Today proved poor too and nothing clicked.

On a positive note, I somehow managed to show a small profit of a score on the football, having been well down at one stage last night. I backed Read Madrid in the Champions League final but they really underperformed in the first 80 minutes and Ronaldo barely got a kick of the ball. He's a bit too flash for my liking but when he's having a good day, he can be very special. Anyway my screen was red but with a few minutes to go, Real were giving it socks and I took a chance and backed the draw. That got me back to even, and then I re-invested forty quid for the extra time. In the end, I came out twenty quid in front which is not a lot in the grand scheme of things considering I showed over a ton loss for the last seven days but it was satisfying nonetheless as I'm not the biggest football punter in the world.

Another positive was the Irish 2,000 Guineas. I baced War Command each-way but he was withdrawn. I thought Kingman was a bit short at 8/11 but as it turned out, he was available at 1.90 shortly before the off, despite War Command's absence. So I had a few quid on at the last minute which was a nice boost.

Didn't get to trade too much as I'd a lot on. While it's dissappointing to show a loss, I'm not going to change anything going into next week. It was just one of those times were a couple of bad times came together.


Ronaldo had been to the hairdresser before last night's match:

Irish 2,000 Guineas at the Curragh

WAR COMMAND
AIDAN O'Brien's stranglehold on the Irish 2,000 Guineas (3.20 Curragh) was broken by Richard Hannon's Canford Cliffs in 2010, but it's been business as usual since for Ballydoyle who have now won five of the last six renewals. While quite a few raiders have landed the prize over the years, O'Brien's namesake Vincent O’Brien is the only other Irish-based trainer to win in the last 25 years (Prince Of Birds in 1988). In fairness, Aidan O'Brien does throw a number of darts at the board every year and he's responsible for 36pc of the field this afternoon with his team of five runners headed by War Command, which was ninth in the 2,000 Guineas at Newmarket. The red-hot favourite, of course, is John Gosden's Kingman, which was narrowly beaten by 40/1 outsider Night Of Thunder in the English Classic and at the time of writing, the best you can get about the Invincible Spirit colt is 8/11. Just like at Newmarket, I'm finding it hard to say anything negative about Kingman other than his price. Odds of 4/5 suggest he has a 58pc chance of winning but purely based on ratings, he's only 1lb superior to War Command and I suspect that this may be a bit more competitive than the market suggests. It would be harsh to describe War Command's Newmarket display as a total flop and once it became clear that he wasn't firing on all cylinders, Ryan Moore didn't punish him. His first run of the year was more lazy than anything else, but he looks the type to come on for the run. Indeed, Aidan O'Brien's Power came second-last in the Newmarket Guineas before winning the Irish version in 2012 and Roderic O'Connor travelled a very similar path a year before. At the prices then, it makes sense to swerve Kingman and back War Command each-way at 7/1, despite some concerns about the softer ground. Dermot Weld hasn't won this race since he sent Flash Of Steel in 1986 but his sole entry, Mustajeeb, also has claims at 6/1. He likes a bit of cut in the ground and despite the fact that he was getting weight all round, there was plenty to like about his victory over some older horses including Brendan Brackan in a Group Three at Leopardstown last time.
Across the water at Haydock, Kevin Ryan's Hot Streak (9/4) is tipped to reverse the Palace House form with Sole Power in the Group Two Temple Stakes (2.40). While the ground was described as firm yesterday, rain was expected overnight and soft ground would put Sole Power's participation in doubt. His trainer, Eddie Lynam, said he'll leave it as late as possible to make a decision as he wants to keep the horse in shape for the King's Stand Stakes at Royal Ascot. On the flip side, the owners of Hot Streak and Pearl Secret would like some give in the ground and they'll also consider withdrawing their horses if they are not happy with the going. Hot Streak, to be ridden by the highly regarded Oisin Murphy, showed plenty of promise as a two-year-old and shaped well on his return to racing when third under a 3lb penalty in the Palace House Stakes earlier this month.

Each-way
SHOT In The Sun steps back up to a mile for the Betfred Mobile Casino Silver Bowl Handicap Stakes (3.45 Haydock), having finished runner-up over seven furlongs in a handicap at York last time. The Richard Fahey trained filly has only finished outside the top two once in her latest eight races but would still appear to have room for manoeuvre off a mark of 84 today. At 8/1, she can be backed each-way. 

DO THE DOUBLE
SOCCER: CRISTIANO Ronaldo missed a couple of Real Madrid matches due to a thigh problem but he’s back for tonight’s Champion’s League final against Atletico Madrid and his presence can make all the difference. Credit goes to Atletico who have reached the European Cup final for the first time since 1974 but they’ve a poor record against their La Liga rivals, who have been in cracking form in Europe this term. Real can just about shade it this evening at 21/20.
HORSE RACING: PRICED in the region of 4/11, no-one will get rich backing Sitting Pritty but Tom Dascombe's filly is impossible to oppose in the maiden at Haydock (5.45) and is sure to be included as the banker in plenty of accumulators up and down the country today. She's rated 19lbs clear of her nearest rival in the betting Goadby, and jockey Stephen Craine should steer her home without breaking a sweat this afternoon. 

Today's selections
2.20 Goodwood: Gatewood
2.40 Haydock: Hot Streak
3.20 Curragh: War Command (e/w)
3.45 Haydock: Shot In The Sun (e/w)
5.45 Catterick: Sitting Pritty

The good, the bad and the good

A bit of a rollercoaster week which ended up nicely profitable in the end to the tune of €424:

However, I only began my €1,000 challenge on Thursday so I won't be counting all of that profit in the challenge.

I had a great bit of luck on Wednesday when I layed Aidan O'Brien's Timbuktu for a place which was as short as 1.12 in a maiden at Naas:

 It's great to get these ones up and that added around €158 to this week's total after commission.

On Thursday, I posted about doing a €1000 challenge and true to Murphy's law I then went and lost around 120 quid on Friday. I have to say, I was pretty peed off a about it as I was hoping to hit the ground running. That's racing for you though.

I'd an OK day on Saturday and my main tip in the paper, Olympic Glory, won the Lockinge at Newbury at 11/8. But unfortunately, I didn't have as much as expected on the damn thing. I had a small few quid on him on the exchanges but I planned on having an extra ton on him with good old fashioned cash. I went to Cashel with the family for a little break and was hoping to pay for some of it with Olympic Glory. But between the driving down and getting checked into the hotel etc, time ran away with me and before I knew it, the race was off. Still though, it was a good win and at least I earned something.

Arsenal let me down in a halftime/fulltime bet and it just goes to show that the FA Cup can still throw up shocks. Yes, Arsenal won but not as easily as I'd thought.

I went into today with my €1000 bank down at around €890 but, believe it or not, I managed to lay another one at 1.12 for a place and get it beat. The horse in question was Marinero for Tony Martin's yard and it finished fifth in the bumper at Limerick today. Happy days! It's not often you get a 1/8 shot beat so to get two in the same week is fantastic:

That earned me €166 before commission and brought today's P&L up to €188.31.

As I say, I earned over four ton this week but as regards the €1,000 challenge, I'll only include money earned since Thursday, which was just over 83 quid.

So the new total for the challenge is €1083.30. 

As mentioned before, I don't want to set too many targets for now for the challenge, I'd rather just see where it goes. But to double the bank, or even get to €1500 would be great and I could review from there.


I'm at the dentist tomorrow getting a shit load of work done all at once. I'm terrified of the dentist so I'm actually getting sedated and getting about seven things done including an extraction. Can't say I'm looking forward to it but I'm told that I won't care because of the drip so I'll see how it goes. I'll have to get my bets on in the morning as, apparently, I'll be up in the clouds for half the day. I know it's a bit silly for a grown man to fear the dentist so much but the last time I got a tooth pulled, it was a horrendous experience. Anyway, I digress.

To sum up the week, it was great, then terrible, then great. This morning, I certainly didn't expect to be in profit with my challenge so I'm very happy to be in the green this evening.

The Lockinge Stakes at Newbury

Going to have a decent enough bet on Richard Hannon's Olympic Glory for the Lockinge Stakes at Newbury. O'Brien's import looks the danger horse.

I've have him up in the paper as my main tip so I hope he delivers as he's a short enough bet to be putting up:

http://www.independent.ie/sport/horse-racing/olympic-glory-can-justify-odds-by-running-rings-around-rivals-30281464.html

Best of luck with your saturday bets. 

€1,000 challenge

It's been a while since I done any kind of challenge on the blog so I think I'll kick on off with a grand for a bit of fun and hopefully to make a few bob along the way. I always find that my dicipline is improved when people are reading/watching so a betting challenge now and again can be a good way to keep on the straight and narrow.

I won't set a target for the moment - I guess doubling the bank would be a great success initially and if I get that far, I'll reassess. 

The selections will be mostly the bets I proof to RacingIndex for Wayne Bailey Racing although there will be a few other backs, lays and trades thrown in too. I don't want to be a slave to posting daily profit and loss updates but I'll do a P&L at least once a week, maybe on Sundays. I'll kick it off tomorrow. 

***

Two monkeys:

Nice profits in the Betfair place markets

It's been a pretty good seven days with a profit of just under €450. Most of that came from the place lays that I do for Wayne Bailey Racing so I'm pretty pleased about that. I had 60 successful bets from 132 in the week so the profit is excellent from such a good strike rate. It also puts me well ahead of any other lay tipster on the site I proof the tips to RacingIndex. 

  

I don't want to come across as smug - I've had plenty of weeks where I've lost a lot but as mentioned a couple of days ago, I've been trying to enjoy the successes a little more as the bad days certainly hurt.

More of the same next week, please God!