Bank shares

Had an interesting discussion with the missus the other night about buying/selling bank shares - and that discussion has become more interesting with today's events.

The missus was asking how low could Bank of Ireland shares go and if they are worth a punt. At the moment, they are around 22 cent but they have been lower. It's my own opinion that they are too risky to buy as the state may well step in further and that could render them pretty useless.

I suggested that Permanent TSB might be worth short selling as the shit will hit the fan when people start defaulting on their mortgages - I should have bloody took my own advice (!) as low and behold, they drop 45% yesterday in anticipation of Thursday's 'stress tests' results on the banks.


We didn't buy or sell in the end as I reckon it's best to wait until after the reports are published but I read tonight that Permanent TSB, Bank of Ireland and Allied Irish Bank shares have all been suspended on the Irish stock exchange. Obviously, they want to stop people trading on inside info (or rumours) but it will be interesting to see where it all goes when the shares go back on the market.

Bank of Ireland monthly chart:

Something new

Excluding the very odd US race, I haven't really traded non UK or Irish races much but I'm having a play around with Meydan (Dubai) today since it's a big meeting. Have to say, I'm pleasantly surprised and found it easy to trade.


In the screenshot for example, I turned over 1K on both the back and lay sides in about four trades on JJ The Jet Plane - around 3 mins before the off. There was plenty of activity and is was handy enough to trade. Not going to go to town with my stakes but it's interesting to try something new.

Back to normality

It's been a long week!

Well, Cheltenham has come and gone – it was an extremely busy week for me as I had a lot of writing on but it was great to be able to pull in a nice few quid from newspapers etc as I didn’t make money from punting. 

 I’ve quite a few things coming up that are going to cost a few quid – the missus’ 30^th, a trip to Oslo and also a cousin’s wedding so Cheltenham is a big week of the year for those of us involved with racing and it’s a good chance to earn some decent bread. 

Punting wise, day one and two were horrendous and I was well down but a decent bet on Big Buck’s on day three got me out of a hole and a couple of wins on Friday at Cheltenham and elsewhere saw me get out alive – just about. 

I didn’t really get to trade that much but I sometimes find the really big meetings tricky in some ways as your money is always at the end of a big queue. It’s good to see the liquidity in the markets obviously but there also comes a point where it gets difficult to get matched outside of the available prices. 

I read on Peter Webb’s blog that Betdaq was providing some nice opportunities so I’ll have to keep an eye on that over the summer for the likes of Royal Ascot etc. 

The flat racing returned today at the Curragh and this is something I welcome. It may not be as exciting for some people but my own betting records show that I’m better at backing on the flat so I’m looking forward to the upcoming season. 

Didn’t get out running much this week with the Festival so I went for a jog today. Have to say, it felt great as the sun was shining. It’s great to see some good weather and it was lovely to go running in the sun for a change. I was out a bit socialising over the weekend too so it’s good to sweat some of that out of the system!

I see that Leopardstown is on next week - I haven’t been out racing in quite a while so I think I’ll try my best to get up. My daughter is six and a half now and often asks me to bring her so I may just see how she likes it. She went up before when she was four but I don’t think she remembers. There’s a trials day on so there’s one or two reasonable races on the card.

It’s been a long but productive week and I’m looking forward to chilling out tonight and just sitting back and reading the Sunday papers.

Phew!

For the second year running, Big Buck's saved my bacon at the Cheltenham Festival. I had my biggest bet of the Festival on him  and if he had lost, it would have been absolute curtains for me as I've had a torrid time and plenty of bad luck. Was unlucky with Wishful Thinking today in the first, he hit 1/3 in running but got beat. But sin é. I had hoped to get some trading done during the day but I got caught up with writing work.

Happy St Patrick's Day to one and all.

Tomorrow's race-by-race guide for the Indo:

RACE-BY-RACE GUIDE
1.30
The JCB Triumph Hurdle is open to four-year-old novices only so it can be a bit of a scrum at the start as the inexperienced horses jostle for position. Sam Winner can be forgiven for his odds-on defeat at Chepstow last time because of the ground, and 6/1 looks big.
2.05
Alarazi will pick up a £75,000 bonus from Paddy Power if he wins any race at Cheltenham following victory in the Imperial Cup on Saturday. He ran well at this course before, and looks well treated under a 5lb penalty.
2.40
Did you know that Albert Bartlett is Britain's leading grower and packer of potatoes? I didn’t either until I looked him up on the Interweb! Anyhow, the race they sponsor is an exhausting test for staying hurdlers and it takes a tough sort to win. Bobs Worth has been powering home over shorter distances and should appreciate the step up to three miles.
3.20
The last time a horse over the age of ten won the Gold Cup, Peter Sarstedt was singing “Where do you go to my lovely” in the charts. Yes, it’s was 1969 when What A Myth won at the age of twelve but Denman may be able to take it this year at the grand old age of eleven. He deserves huge credit for managing third place in the Hennessy considering he was giving some two stone two the field. It’s his last crack at this and 6/1 is a great each-way price.
4.0
Last year’s winner Baby Run is the one to beat. He’s a fine jumper and seems to be improving with age. Enda Bolger’s On The Fringe will give him the most to worry about.
4.40
Another one of the newer races, the first two runnings have gone to outsiders. Only 14lbs cover the field and this looks extremely tricky for punters. My money will stay safe in the wallet.
5.15
It may be the ‘great get-out stakes’ but the last race of the Festival is not one for heavy punting. Nicky Henderson’s Anquetta is a smart, lightly raced sort and will be suited by the stiff two-mile distance.

When's the flat season begin!! ?

 Money down the drain

Another losing day for me at Cheltenham - it's been pretty tough going on the bank! I hope Big Buck's and Poquelin can do the business on Paddy's Day as they are my biggest bets thus far.

At least it was a good day for the Irish but I can help longing a little for the flat, as I find it much better for punting. I'm probably only saying that because I'm losing though and a good day tomorrow will have me loving Cheltenham again. Here's my Irish Independent race guide for Thursday...

RACE-BY-RACE GUIDE

1.30

The Jewson Novices’ Chase is new race for the festival and is not to be confused with the old Jewson Novices' Handicap Chase. Wishful Thinking is a useful sort that is on the up; and his previous course experience should prove useful. 

2.05

A horrible race for backers where the favourite rarely performs. Unless you are into laying favourites on the exchanges, this contest should be avoided.

2.40
It’s hard to get away from Paul Nicholls’ Poquelin. He found plenty when it mattered in the Vote A. P. Gold Cup at this course in December and looks the one to beat.

3.20

Will this end up as a match between Big Buck’s and Grands Crus? It’s a mouth-watering prospect as both horses are in cracking form and are the best in their division. It could be tight but Big Buck’s should have a couple of pounds in hand… for now!

4.0

A big field handicap, and not a race for heavy punting. Aigle D´Or may still have more to come before the handicapper catches up. 

4.40

Any market moves for Ferdy Murphy’s Galant Nuit would be interesting but if you’re in the red by this stage of the day, keep your money for tomorrow as it’s definitely not a race for chasing losses.

Sigh...

Feeling tired and deflated after today. Cheltenham was very tough and I lost quite a bit of money. I've a load to do this evening too so I'll probably be up until the small hours. Not only that, Oil and Gold took a dive today and while I haven't traded out yet, at the moment my holdings are in the red to the tune of around €200.

So I'm feeling pretty glum tonight  :-(


You've got to take the good days with the bad I guess and here's hoping for some better luck on Wednesday.



My race-by-race guide for the Irish Independent:

1.30
An amateur jockeys race which has turned into a bookmakers’ benefit fund over the years. If a gun were put to the head, Charles Byrnes’ Alpha Beat would get the nod but favourites have a poor record in this and it’s a race best watched.
2.05
Some good animals have come out of this over the years and the list of previous winners include Danoli, Istabraq and Hardy Eustace. Even in poor ground, Jessica Harrington’s Oscars Well has a great turn of foot and has the ability to go one better than the Willie Mullins trained So Young.
2.40
The formbook says Time For Rupert will win this with a little bit in hand but the lack of a run this year is of some concern. Aiteen Thirtythree, Jessies Dream, Wymott and Mikael D'haguenet can’t be scratched for the list either so it might be best to sit this one out.
3.20
Master Minded make hard work of the Victor Chandler Chase but Tony McCoy admitted afterward that he gave him a poor ride. Bib Zeb will probably go off as favourite but he’s been taking on the same horses in small fields in Ireland so I’m not convinced we’ve learned anything new. If both horses run to form, Master Minded should just about edge it.
4.0
Some big gambles have been ruined by outsiders in this race over the years so be careful if following the money. It’s hard to find the winner in such a big field but Howard Johnson’s Arcalis is a reliable enough sort and could be worth a few pence each-way around 16/1.
4.40
A race for four-year-old novices only. The word on the street is that Venetia Williams has been preparing Tenor Nivernais for this all season and at 6/1, he can be taken each-way.
5.15
The Irish have a great record in the bumper winning 14 for the last 18 renewals; although Cue Card was a surprise winner for Colin Tizzard at 40/1 last year. I’ve a feeling the prizemoney will stay in Britain again this year and based on his Newbury form, the progressive Ericht (Nicky Henderson) is worth a punt around 6/1.

The wait is over

Well, it's that time of the year again - can't believe it's been a year already. Really looking forward to the racing this week - I'll have an article in the Indo each day which keeps me well busy. Not going mad on day one but here's my quick newspaper summary of tomorrow's racing:

RACE-BY-RACE GUIDE

1.30
Cue Card is the one to beat but he’s just too short at 7/4. Paddy Power have a money-back offer if he wins so with that safety net in mind, I’m going dutch (back both) Zaidpour and Spirit Son at an overall price of 12/5.
2.05
Medermit has a good record at Cheltenham and although most of those races were over sticks, he can jump well at a fast pace which is an essential skill for the Irish Independent Arkle Chase. This is Alan King’s best hope of a winner at the Festival and is definitely the one to beat at 11/4.
2.40
The JP McManus owned Sunnyhillboy (6/1) has been laid out for this race and slots in nicely in the weights off 139. Adams Island (16/1) has place claims now back at his favoured distance.
3.20
Hurricane Fly is hugely exciting in Ireland but will he handle Cheltenham? Menorah has an obvious chance too but Khyber Kim has the form in the book and could be the each-way bet of the day at 10/1.
4.00
This used to be the Enda Bolger benefit race but the form of old stalwarts Garde Champetre and L’Ami has been up and down of late and it may be time to look elsewhere. Oscar Bay is the absolute outsider of the field but he’s a tough old sort and could be worth a couple of pennies in the place market on the machine. 
4.40
Willie Mullins’ Quevega is considered the banker of the festival for many; but she’s now gone odds-on and it’s not worth the risk. Banjaxed Girl is a fluent jumper and could spring a surprise at 16/1.
5.15
Not a race for heavy punting, but David Pipe’s Swing Bill is of interest at a double figure price. A quick return to racing after ten days is not ideal but he’s held in high regard at the yard and is in with an outside chance.