Katie Taylor to win silver Olympic medal

Hopefully!

Taylor beat Mavzuna Chorieva of Tajikistan handy enough before so fingers crossed for her this afternoon. I must admit, I had to google Tajikistan - it's amazing how you hear so little about certain countries in the media etc:

Anyhow, Taylor has already done us proud as did Michael Conlan last night.

*** 

On the financial trading, I've been stopped out of my open positions - some for a loss. It was probably a bit of a gamble to be trading near the end of last week with a few crucial meetings on but interestingly, it was the FOREX trades that netted me profit with the commodities and the Indices trades losers. FOREX is something I want to do more of and I'm still very much learning the ropes.

***

Two formstudy bets today, Timeform comments below:

3.20 Brighton - Rising Legend
Hasn't looked especially progressive, but placed all 4 starts to date, achieving decent level of form in the process. Shaped as though return to this trip would suit when runner-up over 6f last time.

5.35 Sligo - Strapless
Cheaply bought sister to Irish 1m winner Miracle Cure, by Whipper out of an Irish maiden. Placed all 5 starts in maidens, and though not at best last twice she sets the standard.

Blank day

Hi folks, I've a few things to do with the family this morning so haven't had time to look at trading/betting  - so there's no bets/trades today.

Katie Taylor @ the Olympics

What a great sportsperson and a fantastic ambassador for Ireland:

Looking forward to the fight and I'm going to head out with the family for a few pints and a bit to eat. She's 1/8 in the betting which seems a little short but she really is fantastic and hopefully, she'll get Gold by the time the Olympics are done.

On the racing front, I've two bets for today although the one at Ripon is a very short price - here's what Timeform have to say on each:

3.20 Naas - Boston Rocker
€35,000 filly by Acclamation who made all in a 6f Fairyhouse maiden in June and best effort yet when ½-length second to Parliament Square in listed heat at Tipperary since (Blue Bullet fourth).

2.15 - Ripon - Royal Aspiration 
Runner-up in couple of 5f maidens in June and latest 2½ lengths tenth of 22 in the Super Sprint at Newbury represented much-improved form given the quality of that field. Obvious claims here.

Saturday

Yesterday's non-farm payrolls gave the markets a boost - which paired away most of my gains on my short trades. I got stopped out for a seventeen quid loss on the Dow. My other trades are still open: Gold, Silver, and GBP/USD but as I say, the rise in the markets after the NFPs has paired my gains. I'll hold on for now and see what next week brings.

***

I've just the one form study bet today - here's Timeform's comments:

2.30 Thirsk - Geanie Mac
Speedily bred, but improved for step up to this trip when runner-up on handicap bow at Folkestone 9 days ago. Blinkers she wore there retained, and leading claims at this lowly level.

Currently trading around 9/5 on the machine but I'm quietly confident that we'll see a good performance.

***


Dublin are playing tonight but I've decided to save a few quid and watch it on the box at home - I've spent a fortune already this week and went out for a meal with the wife and daughter last night. I'm also going out for a few jars tomorrow so I can't really justify the cost of going to the match and all it entails. I'll watch it on the box instead - Dublin should win handy enough and I reckon the 'over 1.5' goals at 8/13 is a great bet.

***

Finally, here's today's Irish Independent article - best of luck with your trading and betting:

THE FUGUE

EARLIER this week, I heard a bloke on the radio complaining about the amount of alcohol consumed at the Galway Races but if you think Irish society is out of control in 2012, spare a thought for a German traveller by the name of Puckler, who attended a race meeting at Galway in 1828. Shocked by what he saw, he put pen to paper and I came across an account of his trip this week in an excellent book entitled Poor Green Erin by Eoin Bourke. According to Pucker, Irish racegoers have:

"a total incapacity to resist Poitín as long as they have a penny in their pocket to procure it. Wild melee's break out any minute... hundreds of drunkards accompanied our carriage as we drove from the racecourse to the town and more than ten times, brawls broke out among them... these things are characteristics of an only half-civilised people. With the amount of guests in the town it was with great trouble that we found a miserable lodging".

I think it's safe to say we are a bit more civil in this day and age although just like Puckler, I've often found myself bedding down in some miserable lodging at Galway, having left it far too late in the day to book a nice hotel. Centuries pass, but some things never change. Over-indulgence and dodgy accommodation aside, it's been an enjoyable festival overall but with the quality of racing declining as the week draws to a close, attention now turns across the water to the final day at Goodwood, where the feature race is the Group One Markel Insurance Nassau Stakes (3.15). Last year, Sir Henry Cecil's Midday became the most successful horse in the race's history by winning it for a third time but it's hard to fancy his 2012 entry, Timepiece, which was most disappointing in her two starts this season, despite a very successful campaign last term. Roger Varian's Nahrain has very strong claims, winning her first four races including the Prix de l'Opera at Longchamp - and while her subsequent second place in the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf was a great achievement, she raised some questions when putting in a lacklustre performance in a Group Two at Ascot last time. Perhaps she needed the run after a break but she'll have to be back to her best if she's to make it home in front today. Then winner then, may come from John Gosden’s yard and at current prices, THE FUGUE just about gets the nod ahead of stablemate Izzi Top with Richard Hughes and William Buick taking the reins on those receptively. The latter has won three Group races already this year but with just a few pounds separating the top half of the field, I can't justify backing her as short as 15/8. The Fugue was a little bit unlucky to only come third in the Oaks; she was badly hampered throughout, and her second place in the Ribblesdale three weeks later deserves credit considering the Oaks took a lot out of her. She's had a nice six-week break and if on top form today, she will take all the beating, priced around 7/2.

EACH WAY OUTSIDER

ELUSIVE PRINCE carries a penalty into today's Stewards' Cup (3.55 Goodwood) but he's still relatively unexposed and is worth a small punt at 25/1. The four-year-old made all when winning a handicap on heavy going at Chester last time but he adapts to various ground conditions and might have a bit more to come before the assessor catches up. With a great record around Goodwood, Borderlescott will be interesting to watch at a double figure price although at eleven years of age, you'd have to feel that the handicapper has his measure.

DO THE DOUBLE

Gaelic Football: Dublin fans were happy to see their side drawn against Laois for tonight's All-Ireland quarter-final and it's hard to envisage any other result than a comprehensive win for the Liffeysiders. At 1/8, there's not much point in backing them to win so make the most of Paddy Power’s offer of 8/13 on there being OVER 1.5 GOALS at Croke Park this evening.

Horseracing: Following some modest form over the one mile distance on the all-weather this season, GEANIE MAC proved far more useful when stepped up in trip by an extra four furlongs in a handicap at Folkestone last week and was the surprise runner-up at 25/1. A repeat of that form in today's Yorkshire Outdoors Adventure Experiences Maiden Selling Stakes (2.30 Thirsk) should see her go close, and the 3/1 on offer early-doors looks generous.

TODAY'S SECECTIONS

1.45 Newmarket: Strictly Silca

2.30 Thirsk: Geanie Mac

3.15 Goodwood: The Fugue

3.55 Goodwood: Elusive Prince (e/w)

Galway Festival Betting Tips, Friday, day five

It was a bit of a rollercoaster day for my bank balance on Thursday with the financial trades doing very well but the racing at Galway doing woeful. I was particularly gutted with the nap of the day, Dazzling Suzie, as I had a pretty hefty bet on that one - but she just couldn't find anything when she got to the hill. Yellow Rosebud was also disappointing and was beaten by a head.

As mentioned, I sold Silver, Gold, the Dax and the Dow. I also have an open sell on GBP/USD.  While the Dax got stopped out, the rest of them quickly went into profit as the markets fell following the ECB meeting.

At one stage, I was up over €100 in profit but as I stand, I'm up 80 odd quid:

Again, the stakes were small but I didn't want to use up too much margin as it is a new strategy that I'm working on. It's nice to get something back on the day following a poor day on the horses so hopefully they stay well in the black - although I'm keeping an eye on the markets as they always get choppy around non-farm payrolls.

***

The form study bet, Silken Express, won fine so I'm delighted with that. Again, I'm not counting my chickens but it's good to see a recovery on those following a poor spell not so long ago. I've two form study bets for Friday, both from Galway - here's Timeform's comments:

5.40 Galway - Nupur
Dark Angel half-sister to 3 winners abroad, including useful French 7.5f winner Double Vie. Promising second to Harasiya on debut and unsuited by steady pace at Naas last time. Should do better.

8.15 Galway - Distant Memories
Useful performer who landed listed race at Pontefract for Tom Tate in 2011. Showed useful form over hurdles for current yard and looks to have been found a good opportunity returned to the Flat.

***

With regard to the running, I got out on Thursday morning for a bit. I've had a mad busy week and am quite tired now so I'm not sure when I'll go out again. I want a small bit of time to myself over the Bank Holiday weekend as I've put in about 50 hours this week already across all codes. I may get out on Sunday or Monday, I'll see how it goes.

Finally, here's Friday's Irish Independent article. Hope it proves fruitful, could do with an extra few bob for the long weekend:

NURPUR
DAY five at Galway has arrived which means we're well past halfway . It's a tough old slog and there's been plenty of ups and downs for punters in the four days just gone. I've had my own rollercoaster ride with the bookmakers this week and alongside some decent priced winners, I've had a fair share of bad luck including two horses getting chinned on the line on Wednesday; both of which had traded at 1/10 in-running in their respective races before getting beat. After four days of gargle and gambling, punters at Ballybrit will find the tiredness setting in around now but it's important not to lose focus, and the formbook deserves just as much attention on Friday as it did on Monday. The famous American Football  coach Vince Lombardi once said that fatigue makes cowards of us all - but there's plenty more action to come so we'll keep the pot of coffee on the boil and see what the rest of the week throws up. Today's card looks decidedly tricky with some of the handicaps particularly difficult to decipher but I reckon there's at least one race that should be straightforward enough, where NURPUR (nap) can be backed at a fairly generous price of 6/4 in the Guinness 17:59 European Breeders Fund Median Auction Maiden (5.40). On paper, her fifth place from six runners in a maiden at Naas last time is off-putting but she was unprepared for the late burst of pace two furlongs out from Ger Lyons' winner Lightnin Hopkins and it's fair to say she was simply caught napping on the job. That's not much consolation for those that backed her at 8/15 but she did show ability when runner-up in her debut race at Leopardstown and I've no doubt that jockey Chris Hayes will keep a close eye on the moves of his six other rivals today. Dermot Weld's colt Muaanid can chase them home. In the Guinness Galway Blazers Handicap Chase (6.15), consider the old-timer AGUS A VIC at 8/1. At eleven years of age, he's no spring chicken but he proved at Punchestown that he can still run a big race and at these weights, the handicapper has given him a fighting chance this evening. 

TODAY'S SELECTIONS
5.10 Carlowsantana
5.40 Nurpur (nap)
6.15 Agus A Vic
6.50 Man of God (e/w)
7.25 Pale Mimosa
7.55 Merkel
8.25 Distant Memories

Galway Festival betting tips, Thursday, day four

It could have been a great day yesterday but I ended up with a mixed bag that included plenty of frustration.

In the first at Galway, Too Scoops was chinned on the line having traded at 1/10 in-running. I reckon there was interference that cost him but there's no point in complaining. Later, Our Connor also looked the winner all-over and also traded at 1/10 in-running before getting chinned on the line aswell. Ouch!  Luckily, the nap of the day Fatcatinthehat won which was great as it was my biggest bet of the day.

The form study bet, Pearl Sea, won too so that was another few quid back. Can't help feeling a little short-changed on the day though. Still, that's the joys and sorrows of racing for you.

Today could be tricky again but we'll see what happens - today's Irish Independent article is posted below.

Frankel was his usual awesome self and I see connections are considering the Prix Du Moulin. He may also go to Ascot on October 20th which leaves me in a bit of a dilema. I was thinking of going to the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe this year as it has been a while since I went. It's my birthday month in October and I like to take a weekend away to celebrate but I may consider Ascot instead as that may well be Frankel's last race. I'll have a chat with the bosswoman and see what the craic is. 


Longchamp racecourse, Paris:

***

On the financials, I've been busy doing a little bit of selling - again, I'm using the 'tops and bottoms' strategy as explained in Mastering The Trade.


Yesterday's sell on the GBP/USD is in profit of about fifteen quid. Again, I'm looking for some short term trades that only last a few days but I've just sold Silver, Gold, the Dax and the Dow. My stakes are very small but overall, I'm using up margin of about a ton (€100).

I could be in for a bit of a rollercoaster ride today though - what will today's ECB meeting produce? I kinda feel that Draghi has put himself in a bit of a corner by saying they will take very strong measures to save the Euro. Other than bond buying, what else can they do?  So if we don't see some bond buying, he could risk looking foolish. Anyway, we'll wait and see...

***

As mentioned, I'd one winner on the form study bets yesterday and these seem to be picking up again. Not counting my chickens though - it's not long ago I was down at break-even so I'm being cautious and not lumping too much money on. I've one bet for today and it will probably be quite short - here's what Timeform have to say:

6.10 Ffos Las - Silken Express
Very green when narrowly denied on AW debut at Southwell (5f) last month having been very well backed. Sets a decent standard on that form, and looks sure to improve ahead of switch to turf.


***

Here's today's Irish Independent article - best of luck with your trading and betting today:

TRAINER CARR HAS GROUNDS FOR OPTIMISM

THE missus has fears that I’m some sort of masochist, but each morning I like to go onto the Met Eireann website to find out what the weather is going to be like for the day – and while browsing the site yesterday, I read that July 2012 was the coldest and wettest on record in Ireland in 40 years.

As I look out the window at yet more dark clouds, I don’t have much hope for a reprieve in August and you would have to feel for the Galway racegoers who have had to retire to the bars to watch much of the action so far this week.

We had a little bit of sunshine yesterday, but more showers are expected in the west this morning, so for the Guinness Galway Hurdle, make sure your selection can handle the going as it’s a tough enough race to win on a good day, never mind when the ground is soft or heavy.

We’ve a couple of mud- lovers going to post, but one that’s sure to handle the conditions is the John Carr- trained BENASH, whose best lines of form come on soft or heavy ground.

A resourceful sort, he’s useful enough over fences too and has kept himself fit on the level by placing in a couple of maidens last month.

He’s definitely best over timber though and at 20/ 1, you could do worse things this week than take him each- way. Willie Mullins’ Drive Time is a big danger to the bet and I’ve a feeling this gelding is a good few pounds ahead of the handicapper.

He’s another that has done well on the Flat lately and with Ruby doing the steering, he’s in safe hands.

In the Guinness Series Novice Chase, DAZZLING SUSIE is the nap of the day, priced around 5/ 2.

Her trainer John Phelan said she was “exceptional” following her first schooling over fences and she lived up to her billing by later taking a beginners chase and then a novice chase back in June.

Finally, the obligatory Dermot Weld selection is YELLOW ROSEBUD in the Arthur Guinness European Breeders Fund Corrib Fillies Stakes ( 3.35).

She wasn’t keen on the good ground in the Irish 1,000 Guineas last time, but I’m confident we’ll see a much improved performance from the three- year- old today.

TODAY'S SELECTIONS
1.50 Silverhand
2.25 Dazzling Susie nap
3.0 Waydownsouth (e/w)
3.35 Yellow Rosebud
4.10 Thynetocatcher
4.50 Benash (e/w)
5.30 King Of Oriel
6.05 Cooper's Dream

Galway Festival 2012, day three betting tips, Wednesday

A cracking day at Galway yesterday with a 9/2, a 5/4 and a 13/2 winner. It gave the coffers a nice little boost following a reasonably poor Monday. To be honest, today looks tricky but sure you can't hide behind the couch and I've put up another article in the Irish Independent today (posted below).

At Goodwood, I can't wait to watch the greatest flat horse of all time race, FRANKEL.

 I've followed this horse since the early days and definitely have Frankel Fever. He's 1/20 in the betting and a win should be a formality. In some ways, it's a little disappointing that he's frightened everyone away and only faces 3 rivals but it's still worth tuning in at ten past three just to watch this historic horse in action.

***

With regard to the daily form study bets, I've just one for today - here's what Timeform has to say:


4.20 Goodwood - Pearl Sea
Half-sister to useful 2011 2-y-o winner Vladimir. Has made bright start in finishing placed in pair of warm 6f maidens, clear of third at Newmarket last time. Sets a lofty standard.

***

On the financial trading front, I've just sold the Great British Pound against the Euro [EDIT: that should say Dollar - I sold the pound against the dollar, not the euro], again using a strategy I learned in Mastering The Trade.

I sold at 1.5638 with my initial stop loss in place at 1.5768. As before, once I'm in the trade two days, I will use a two day trailing stop, with the highest point on the candle from two days ago becoming the new stop each time.

I'm not trying to catch a big trend here or anything - it's more at a micro level and the strategy says that the pound has come to the end of a slight bull run:

Finally, here's my Galway article form today's Irish Independent - best of luck with your trading and betting.

DON’T MISS THE FRANKEL SHOW

WHILE the focus of my article is on Galway this week, I can't let today go by without mentioning the greatest Flat horse of all time, Frankel, which runs today in the Qipco Sussex Stakes at Goodwood.It's the job of a sportswriter to be descriptive, colourful and entertaining and, as such, we often run the risk of over- hyping our stars.But it's virtually impossible to overstate how good this horse is, and no matter what you are doing at 3.10 this afternoon, you should down tools and watch this exceptional animal win his 12th race in a row. He has frightened nearly everyone off the race and will face just three rivals, so it's likely that his price will be in the region of 1/ 20.

Disappointing in a way, and you'd often wonder who'd bother backing at those prices. They would want to have more money than sense – although a quick look through the stats shows that seven horses have gone off at 1/ 20 or shorter since 2003 and all seven have won.But for your regular Joe Punter, no bet is needed to enjoy watching what is truly equine perfection in action.Back home at Ballybrit, the feature race of the day is the Galway Plate, where a chance is taken on WISE OLD OWL to land the prize for John Kiely’s yard in a race where Willie Mullins' Blackstairmountain sets the standard.The latter is bound to prove popular in the betting and his second place in the Grade One Ryanair Novice Chase earns him respect, but at 5/ 1, he looks decidedly short.The selection hasn’t been seen since finishing second in this very race last year and I’m slightly concerned about the extra 10lb he’ll carry this time around, but his trainer knows how to pick his races and you can’t help feeling that the eightyear- old has been laid out for this. At 12/ 1, he can be taken each- way. Earlier on at 4.45, FAT CAT IN THE HAT ( 7/ 2) is nap material in the Bet 10, Get 10 At The Tote Marquee ( Q. R.) Maiden for the Mullins team. He proved frustrating to follow last term and should have won a maiden at Leopardstown in October. However, now gelded, I'm told he's come on a lot at home over the winter and spring.

TODAY'S SELECTIONS
3.0 Too Scoops
3.35 Moonlight Sapphire
4.10 Capal Dubh Alainn (e/w)
4.45 Fatcatinthehat (nap)
5.25 Wise Old Owl (e/w)
6.00 Our Conor
6.35 Curl Cat
7.10 Tandem

91/ 1

FOLLOWERS of Wayne Bailey would have been in the money yesterday as three of his tips came up trumps.

Voleuse De Coeurs started the ball rolling winning at odds of 9/ 2 before nap selection Magical Dream obliged at 5/ 4. The treble was completed by Golden Shoe’s 13/ 2 triumph which would have returned a profit of € 91.81 for a € 1 stake.