Trading software

Sunday, October 10, 2010

Figuring out the best stops loss

The Challenge: to increase my trading bank by 5% per month.

The story so far...

Starting bank: €1,000 (beginning of May 2010)
Target for end October: €1,340.10
Today’s opening bank:
€1,643.47
Today’s closing bank: €1,688.86
Today's profit/loss: +€45.39
Today's turnover: €15,517.84



Only traded four races today as I went out for dinner with my family. It was a very good day all considered with a profit of €45.39. As the bank builds, I find that I can use bigger sums to trade which has positive and negative sides. The positive side, obviously, is that each successful trade is worth a bit more. The downside is that when a trade goes wrong, the loss can be harder to take. Again, I'm trying not to think in actual money figures, just percentages. It's easier said than done though!

Today, I tried trading without an automatic stop loss and while I made a profit, I didn't feel entirely comfortable. Perhaps I don't yet have the discipline to get out of a bad trade by myself and I let one or two run on longer than they should have. Trading with an automatic stop is great in one way as it takes out the emotion but it's not always suited to every situation. Sometimes you are fairly sure the market will come back your way but your stop loss has been hit in the meantime - this can prove frustrating. I haven't yet figured out the right stop loss yet. Perhaps I never will and it needs to be adjusted for each market, but I know that stops are something I must work on.

Saturday, October 9, 2010

Wow - what a day

An incredible day overall. I had a good evening session of trading but an in-running bet on Resplendent Ace earned me over €800




Obviously, this €836 will not be included in my trading challenge totals.

I remember this horse hitting a big price in-running last time out before pulling it out of the bag and I thought I'd take a chance again with a few quid when he hit 25/1 in running. He actually traded around 34.0 at one stage. Low and behold, the gelding goes and pulls it out of the bag again!

This capped off a very good day as my Irish Independent column had a headline winner with Electric Waves at 7/1. I backed this one with cash in the bookies old style. Sometimes it's nice to get the real cash handed to you.

Sorry if I come across as boastful here, that's not my intention. It's just that these days don't come around so often so they should be enjoyed.

With regard to the trading, it was a cracker of a day with a profit of €82.36. I only traded a few evening races but it all went very well and I must admit that I'm feeling damn good about today.

I'll certainly enjoy my few pints tonight!

Don't think I'll get to trade tomorrow as my family want to bring me out to dinner for my 30th birthday.

***

The Challenge: to increase my trading bank by 5% per month.

The story so far...

Starting bank: €1,000 (beginning of May 2010)
Target for end September: €1,340.10
Today’s opening bank:
€1,561.11
Today’s closing bank: €1,643.47
Today's profit/loss: +€82.36
Today's turnover: €20,765.90

Friday, October 8, 2010

New all-time high

The Challenge: to increase my trading bank by 5% per month.

The story so far...

Starting bank: €1,000 (beginning of May 2010)
Target for end September: €1,340.10
Today’s opening bank:
€1,496.29
Today’s closing bank: €1,561.11
Today's profit/loss: +€64.82
Today's turnover: €27,814.60


A cracking day today which brings the bank to a new all-time high. I've decided to quit now as I want to watch the Ireland/Russia match and relax. Only one market went wrong which cost me a fiver but otherwise, it was pretty handy enough to make money.



It's strange sometimes - I don't know if it's the markets themselves or else it's the mindset - but some days just seem much easier than others.

By the end of the day, my concentration was starting to lapse so I decided to quit as the temptation to trade through boredom was arising. I'm starting to recognise these signals in myself and have started to act on them. If I'm feeling bored, for example, it's time for a break.




All in all, a very pleasing day. Let's hope a win for Ireland can top it off as I've layed the Russians for a ton:

Apologies, the video won't upload - I'll try get it up at a later time if I can. You will see from the days p&l screenshot later that I earned a quid. It wasn't too exciting anyway.

Filming a random race

People have asked me to put up some more videos and I promised to do so when I got time.



However, one person sent me an interesting email and asked if I was going to up any trades where it goes arse up. I found this interesting as most videos on youtube are of successful trades and this makes it look easy. Generally, people pick and choose what they upload so it's not a real reflection of the reality of trading.

So I’ve decided, time permitting, to film a random race picked out in advance. If the trades go well, that’s great but the video will also go up if the trading goes wrong.



I’ve pulled a race at random to film today – the 15:55 at York.


Win, lose or draw I’ll put the video up this evening and explain what I do.

'Out of body' trading

I’m sure most of you have read about people who have had ‘out of body’ or ‘near death’ experiences where they are floating above themselves and can somehow view their body from afar.

Yes, yes, yes – I know that the link between out of body experiences and trading is extremely tentative but bear with me while I try to explain a psychological strategy I use which often proves useful:

Let’s say you take a position where you hope to get a tick or two profit but the market is starting to go against you...

When faced with this situation, many people will start to panic and as they stare and stare at the screen, they wonder why it always happens to them. When faced with fear, it becomes hard to relax and let the markets do their thing and it almost seems impossible that the market will return to where you want it. Yet, very few people will get out for a loss at this point – they will sit there almost paralysed, urging the price to move their way. Sometimes it will, sometimes it won’t - but this paralysis can see very intelligent people watch their position deteriorate before their eyes and it can even destroy a bank. Why do we act like this?

The increased anxiety and fear when a position goes against you can become suffocating and the need to be right can make you angry at the market. This can lead to irrational behaviour where further bets are made (bets you never would have made had you not been in the negative position).

I’ve been in this position many times but I definitely handle it in a very different way nowadays than I did when I first started trading. A couple of years back, my heart rate would rise, I’d move my eyes closer to the screen and, being honest, I'd often add to my position in an attempt to buy my way out of the situation at the next tick. I’d get so absorbed with the micro movements that I couldn’t see the bigger picture. If the price went further against me, I would be facing a very big red book and this could become quite depressing. The urge to go in-running becomes great in these situations and while you may get away with it the odd time, you will eventually bust your bank by letting your bets go inplay. Believe me, I’ve been there and have a cupboard full of those T shirts.

Nowadays, I don’t get myself into that situation and I let the market do its thing. This is easier said than done but one you learn to ‘switch off’ when your trade has been placed, it can become liberating in a way.

If a trade goes against me nowadays, I do three things:

Firstly, I set a stop loss in an area that won’t cost me a fortune if it is hit.
Secondly, I put in a ‘get out’ order for the desired profit.
Thirdly, I move the chair away from the screen and promise myself that I won’t touch the mouse until my profit or stop point has been hit.

The temptation to intervene can be huge but this is where the ‘out of body’ mindset comes into play. I sit there and breathe slowly to try make myself calm. Once my profit order and stop loss is in place, I step aside from the computer, and detach myself from the situation. Traders need to feel in control but you must accept that staring intently at the screen will not change anything so why stress yourself out?
Once you’ve learned to resist going back to the screen, you will often find that doing nothing is the best course of action of all. With luck, your profit order will be met and you will make money but sometimes your stop loss will be activated and the software will get you out for a loss. No-one likes a loss but a small one sure as hell beats the catastrophic ones as described above. It might be a bit far fetched to describe it as an out of body experience but i certainly find myself feeling detached from the situation. As mentioned, this feeling can be calm and liberating, as I'm safe in the knowledge that the inner 'panic Wayne' won't F*ck things up.

I’d urge you to try it when a trade goes against you. Set a get out profit point, set a stop loss – and then step aside from the situation. Don’t get me wrong, you need to manage the position if the race is about to go off but if you’ve time, take a little stroll around the room and forget about the market for a few minutes. You may be pleasantly surprised when you come back. Sometimes, you will be disappointed but one thing you won’t be facing is a busted bank. Protecting your capital is much more important than making a profit on a given race but so many traders can’t seem to see this.

**

This evening, I traded just one race but ended up stepping aside from my position a number of times. The good news was that it worked in my favour for the most part and I earned over €30. When the markets went against me, I simply put in my orders on both sides and walked away.

The need to feel in control can be almost overwhelming but there are times where you just have to let things take their course.

By the way, the thirty quid earned will NOT be added to the trading challenge total – I wanted to play around with some ideas today and had decided beforehand that any profit or loss would not be part of the challenge. I’ve a couple of hours off tomorrow so I’ll get as much trading in as I can for the challenge then.

I’ll probably just withdraw the thirty quid and buy a couple of pints over the weekend with it. It’s only a small amount but you have to withdraw a few quid now and then and spend it, even if it is just to make the money feel real.

Tuesday, October 5, 2010

September review

On figures, September was disappointing as the bank dropped down by around thirty quid.

This was mainly down to 12th September when I lost 80 quid by ignoring my stops and chasing a trade. It just goes to show that these simple lapses in discipline can have a big effect. Had I kept to my stops losses, I would have shown a very reasonable profit for the month but the oldies, fear and greed, ruined what would have been a good month.

In reality, I didn't get to trade much at all during the month - most of my weekends off were spent travelling and the evening meetings came to an end. I actually only got to trade for 4-5 days in September.

The target for the end of October is €1340.10 and even though I've surpassed that, this static period is a worry and I need to crack on with making money again.


Going forward...

* We are already into October and I haven't had a chance to trade as yet. I realise that I'm going to have to plan better and get more time trading. I'm going to have to look at the calendar and do as much of the all-weather evening, and also the weekend meetings as much as I can. I can't hit targets or make money unless I trade so I'll simply have to organise myself a bit better this month.

* A loss in September (my first losing month) is a bit sobering as it was purely down to a single day of indiscipline. I MUST knock this type of thing on the head going forward.

* I've had some emails asking me to put up more videos on youtube. It's been a hectic few weeks for me at home and work and I simply haven't had the time. I know I've said it before, but I do plan on filming some more trading sessions soon.

As for trading this week: There's evening racing at Kempton tomorrow but I do a wine tasting course on Wednesdays so that's out. I work late on Thursdays so I won't get to do Wolves that evening - however, they have late racing on Friday which should be do-able. I'm working during the daytime on Saturday but again, there's evening racing from Wolves so I'll try cover that and I hope to do daytime Sunday aswell. As usual, thanks for the comments and questions during the month.