Wayne Bailey Racing and Trading

Excellent book about trading

2012-01-27T10:15:00.003Z

Just finishedMastering The Trade by John F. Carter and I have to say that it’s been the bestbook on trading I’ve read so far.

Peter Brownrecommended it on the trading course I did so I got myself a copy and startedreading it slowly. It’s the type of book that you’d want to make notes and takeyour time with however, not really bedtime reading.

The greatthing about this book is that the author is a daytrader himself. I’ve readloads of book on trading where you get the feeling that the author doesn’tactually trade all that much.

Another bigbig plus is that he shares about half a dozen strategies that he actually uses himselfto trade. Call them ‘setups’ or ‘systems’ if you will, but surprisingly, veryfew books actually discuss actual strategies and when to place the trades.Another good thing is that he discusses exit strategies too – a lot of bookstalk about how to enter the trade but assume the reader will know when to getout. Most of this book is based onAmerican Indices and some FOREX and are quite specific to the set-up he uses andthe platform he uses - but if you are fairly knowledgeable about trading, youwill be able to adapt them to suit your needs. He gives plenty of examples andscreenshots showing his trades.

He alsodeals with psychology and how to avoid being eaten by the sharks. It’s not abook for beginners though and a good working knowledge of trading would berequired.

I’vehighlighted loads of quotes and strategies so now I’m going to get to workadapting them to my needs and adding some ideas I got from the book to myportfolio. All in all, an excellent book– highly recommended.

I’ve juststarted Trading In The Zone yesterday and so far, it’s very good. It’s by MarkDouglas – I read his earlier book, The Disciplined Trader, which I found quitegood.

Anyhow, I’moff to Norway later today with some friends – we are visiting an old friend whomarried a girl over there and moved there. Looks like it will be freezing! Don’t care about the cold though, I’m reallylooking forward to a nice few days away and a bit of craic with the lads –despite the fact that it’s about 12 quid for a pint! I was in Norway with themissus last year and really enjoyed it. Flying to Oslo and spending a nightthere, and then it’s down to Grimstad.

Ciao!

Grimstad, Norway:

Good and bad, but mostly good

2012-01-21T16:27:00.002Z

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Well, the bad news is that the form study thingy is still going through a rocky patch - getting a load of horses go very short in-running only to get beaten which is making me think harder about some sort of laying off strategy. I'll keep plugging away with small bits of cash and record everything along the way though.

The good news is that I had another very good day for my newspaper column including an 8/1 winner Tatenen. The tissue price of 25/1 when I wrote the article yesterday morning was way off but he opened high enough before some big-ish on-course gambles pushed his price into 8s.

http://www.independent.ie/sport/other-sports/hoping-for-perfect-birthday-gift-2995826.html

Well chuffed with that - it's my mam's 65th birthday this weekend so it's good to get a couple of bob up for that.

Thanks Tatenen!

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A good day

2012-01-14T19:42:00.001Z

Had a nice couple of winners in my Irish Independent column today which was pleasing:

http://www.independent.ie/sport/horse-racing/marodima-can-lift-the-spirits-2988802.html

The main bet of the day, Marodima, went in at 3.37 while The each-way selection, Moleskin, went in at 5.51.

While it's great to get a few winners, silly me forgot to proof them. Doh! so that means I'm still behind with the proofing website due to the recent poor run.

Had Menorah in a double with Spurs to win HT/FT. I thought the Tottenham bet was the banker of the day but they let me down.

Still, it was a decent day of work overall.

A bad streak - or the end of a lucky one?

2012-01-13T10:07:00.001Z

Still doing the form study but it has taken a bit of a dive lately which is annoying. When you are losing money, confidence dips and you can't help wondering if my previous good results were somewhat lucky and maybe this is the norm.

But deep down I don't think so and reckon it will turn around. There's certainly nothing happening that can't be expected now and then based on my strike rate.

I had a few reasonable priced bets get beat by very narrow margins but that's part of the game.

But it's bloody typical - I decided to start proofing my bets to a website and as soon as I did, I hit the bad streak. Lady luck can be an arsehole when she wants to be!

I'm down to €225 profit to a €10 stake - the high before Christmas was €316 (mid December).

Anyhow, I'll keep plugging away - I've three bets for today so I'll see how that goes:

Don't take those as tips by the way! This is still very much a work in progress.

As of today, the stats are:

Bets: 138
Wins: 68
Strike rate: 49%
ROI: 16.25%
Average Betfair SP: 3.09
Longest sequence of winners in a row: 7
Longest sequence of losers in a row: 5
Profit to a €10 stake at Betfair SP (assuming commission is 5%): €225.90

Below is a chart which tracks my progress to date.

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Beaten at 1/100

2012-01-11T08:11:00.001Z

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Had a bet on a horse yesterday, Westlin' Winds in the 2.10 at Leicester as part of my form study work.

The gelding went off quite short in the end at 1/2 and hit the floor price of 1/100 in-running but was beaten by a neck.

This can be extremely frustrating and I've often toyed with the idea of laying off all my bets in-running around 1.05 or something, simply to avoid this situation - although I suspect in the long term, laying them off blindly wouldn't make sense.

That said, I've been recording how low each of my losing bets trades in-running and I have a few figures to play with. I must admit, I haven't found much of a way to make much money in-running yet but I'll continue to work on some ideas.

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Goals 2012

2012-01-03T10:49:00.002Z

I’m not really one for New Year Resolutions to be honest but I guess January isalways a good time to plan ahead for the year and set some goals. I’m not onefor wishy washy ‘follow your dreams’ waffle but I do think it helps to setrealistic goals and targets to help fulfil ones potential. I just came acrosssome quotes by a chap called Charles C. Noble - I can’t really find out muchabout him but he was a good man for the quotes about goal setting. Thought thisone was good and can be applied particularly to trading/betting, which is fullof short-term disappointments.

“You musthave long-range goals to keep you from being frustrated by short-rangefailures.”

Another oneI liked was from a guy called Jim Rohn:

“Motivationis what gets you started. Habit is what keeps you going.”

The aboveis very true of what I do with trading and betting – especially since I’vestarted getting up at six every morning. The long term view keeps me motivatedbut you definitely need to get into a habit.

Another oneI liked from Robert Puller:

““Goodhabits, once established are just as hard to break as are bad habits”

OK, OK, I’mgoing to town here on the oul motivational quotes but let me throw in one morefrom the one and only Aristotle:

“We arewhat we repeatedly do. Excellence, then, is not an act, but a habit.”

Probably abit naff, but there’s some good food for thought there. For 2012, I’ve set up a number of targets andhave a few things I want to achieve. I’llbriefly list them here as it will be interesting to review them this time nextyear if nothing else!

Financialtrading
Learn, learn, learn. I want to continue to learn and read as much as possible.I also want to be getting up every morning to trade from 6.30 to 8.30am andhave a set routine. I’m still finding my feet in this regard but repetition breedsfamiliarity. To make any money, you need to know your product inside out sothere’s no point in doing things half arsed here and there. Routine is key. Iwon’t set any money goals (just yet) as I really want to concentrate onbecoming a good trader rather than someone who is trying to make money.

Betfairtrading
I’m pretty disappointed with the amount of trading I got done in 2011 onBetfair. It was partly due to work commitments but I also concentrated on otherstuff such as my evening course in trading. I think I need to set myself sometimes where I trade on Betfair, no matter what. I don’t feel too tuned in tothe markets right now and that’s off putting. I need to get back in the game. Ineed to sit down and look at money, time and a few other things come up withsome sort of plan.

Racing
I showed a small profit for my Indo column in 2011 and I’d like to build onthat and continue with the writing work which I love doing. Hopefully theprofit in 2012 will be a fair bit bigger. The form study has been going well soI want to keep that up and give it a lash with some decent money. By the end ofthe year, I want to be earning a decent sum from the form study work. I’d also like to get my site up and runningagain properly and hopefully pull in a small few quid from that again.

Health& Fitness
I did pretty good on this front in 2011 so I want to kick on a bit more in2012. I want to go for a decent run at least three times a week and also do aworkout at least three times a week. That’s six fitness sessions per week whichwould be pretty decent as I’m doing 4 – 5 at the moment. No drinking on schoolnights is another one as I want to get up at six each morning to trade.

Book
I’ve loads of ideas for a book of short stories jotted down. If I write atleast one chapter of it, it will be a start. I've also some bits and pieces together for a non-fiction book. I might look at that again too.

Driving
I’d love to pass my test – I’ve only got the car a month so how realistic thatis I don’t know but I’m going to keep learning as much as I can and hopefully,I can pass the test by the end of the year.

Money
Won’t go in to too much detail on a public website but I’ve set some goalsregarding finance and I want to be able to help out the missus with a projectshe’s working on. By the end of the year, I want to be clear of certain debtsand have money for a certain goal.

Education
Not sure what I’ll do yet, but I’d like to do another evening course – possiblysomething to do with economics or maybe another sort of trading course.

Family
Want to make that extra effort to get a bit of time with my daughter when Icome home from work, before she goes to bed. The computer will have to wait onme. Want to read with her as much as possible. Also want to get a few nightsout with the missus – it’s something we don’t do half as much as we should

anymore.

Travel
Spent a bomb on travel in 2011 going away numerous times so this year will haveto be cut back a bit unfortunately. I’ve a weekend booked with the lads to seea mate in Norway this month and I’d also like to go on a family sun holiday fora week or so in the summer, perhaps with some friends as I did in 2011. Otherthan that, if I get a weekend away with herself somewhere, I’ll be happy. Parisis always good but I’ll see how the finances are around Arc weekend.

Out of allof those, the priority is to become a better trader and I’ll be disappointed withmyself if I don’t stick to my early morning routine.

Actually, I reckon it would be a good idea to revisit this in six months and review/update on progress.

“A journey of a thousand miles beginswith a single step” (Confucius).

Happy New Year

2012-01-01T14:06:00.002Z

Sorry for the lack of posting lately, wanted to spend as much time as possible with the family over the Christmas before we get back to normal next week.

Had a nice peaceful Christmas - my daughter wanted a camera of Santa Claus which was a nice gift as she is quite creative.

Racing wise, I didn't do too well at Leopardstown although I had a couple of good days out and enjoyed some time with friends which is important to me as I've had a busy year .

There's a few days left of the Christmas season so I'm going to enjoy what little time I have off before easing back into things next week.

I'm not really one for making resolutions but there are a few things I want to accomplish in 2012 and I think I'll post them up over the next few days.

Anyhow, Happy Christmas/New Year to all and best of luck with your betting. As my old man used to say;

May the blessings of Jesus hop off ye.

Crazy scenes on Betfair

2011-12-28T15:53:00.001Z

From Scott Ferguson's blog - some major screw up somewhere. Have a look at this:

http://www.sportismadeforbetting.com/2011/12/its-all-gone-pete-tong-at-betfair.html

Winner alright, winner alright

2011-12-19T11:00:00.001Z

Drove to Dún Laoghaire and beyond in the car yesterday and won the €150. Happy days!

Learning to drive

2011-12-18T11:54:00.002Z

Haven't been out and about in the car as much as I wanted to but I still have a week to win the bet with the missus.

She's driving years and thought I'd never bother to learn so a few weeks ago, we struck a €150 bet that I'd drive down to her work before Christmas and pick her up and drive home.

She works in Dún Laoghaire which is a busy town so it could be tricky as I've only ever drove on quiet roads on Sundays - but I'm going to kick on this week with plenty of practice. The car is big enough (Mitsubishi Lancer) so it's a little tricky to get used to compared to the motorbike but I'm really enjoying learning.

It would be a nice couple of bob to have for Leopardstown if I win the bet ;-)

Betting wise, I had a good day yesterday for the Irish Independent with a 12/1 winner (Raya Star). I'm pretty chuffed about that as I think I've had around 4 or 5 profitable weekends in a row at this stage. I consider myself a better punter on the flat but I've been doing quite good at this time of the year on the jumps.I'd been going through a rough patch for a while late summer so some nice priced winners are most welcome, especially at this time of the year.

Don't think I'll get to trade today on Betfair as I want to get out driving when I'm done my form study. Nearly done but there's nothing standing out so I might have a blank day on the betting front.

The car:

Nearly there

2011-12-15T11:19:00.002Z

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Asmentioned a few times, I’ve been getting up at six every morning to put in somegood old form study work. It’s been tough to do but I’m getting loads done inthe extra few hours in the morning and I’m going to keep it up. I don’t find abet every day but I thought I’d track my progress and see how I get on over 100bets and whether or not I can make the midweek stuff pay anymore. I’m halfthinking of getting the tipping site going again as I used to make a few bobfrom it (I didn’t charge – I made money from donations and affiliate links) andso I may start proofing the bets again.

Still havesome things to think about but my 100 bet trial is close to an end as it’s gonewell thankfully. There’s a picture below showing the progress on a chart, buthere’s the basics:

Bets: 91
Wins: 50
Strike Rate: 55%
ROI: 32.72%
Average Betfair SP: 3.04
Longest sequence of winners in a row: 7
Longest sequence of losers in a row: 5
Profit to €10 stake at Betfair SP: €301

I’mdelighted with this as I’m happy to operate at the lower end of the marketprice wise, and it suggests that money can be made on the shorter ones. Theaverage price has been around 2/1. Short prices are nice in that you get plentyof feel good winning streaks - although the downside of course is that a losingstreak can take time to recover from.

Before Idecide if I’ll start posting up my bets again, I’ve some stuff to do/thinkabout. First of all, my site is lying idle for ages and needs a cleanup and arevamp. Second, I’ve to decide on a staking plan – the above is recorded tolevel stakes which is the best way to do a trial – but in reality, some sort ofratchet plan using a percentage of thebank would yield a better return.

Of course,all of the above assumes I’m going to remain profitable – I’m not stupid enoughto take that as a given though. Things change all the time and a bad run can bejust around the corner. Who knows, my next sequence of 100 bets cold hit plentyof losers and bad luck and may not pay – but I’ll plug ahead anyway and see howwe go. Just one bet today, Pride Of the Artic at 2.35 Gowran - but this is a tricky and I have my reservations so please don't take that as a tip or anything.

With regardto trading the financials, the markets are not buying this Euro deal at all andwe’ve finally dropped into the 1.20s with the Euro against the dollar. To behonest, I think they are all a bunch of morons – they brought even moreuncertainty to the markets with this ‘plan’ just before the Christmas break.

It’s alsolooking increasingly likely that there may need to be a referendum on the dealin Ireland. Would it pass? I’m not so sure. People are tired of Europe, tiredof politics, and tired of being broke. Remember the posters for the Lisbontreaty and the Nice treaty? “Lisbonequals jobs, vote yes” .... “Niceequals jobs, vote yes” .

People were told that if they voted no, they would endanger the economy. Sothey voted yes. But where did it get us. Where the fuck are the promised jobs? They may have a hard time selling this as thetwo other treaties didn’t deliver on what they promised, mainly jobs.

Plus theidea of a financial tax in Europe but not Britain could damage us badly. Whywould anyone stay in Dublin getting taxed out of it when they could just popacross to the city in London to do business without the tax?

Anyway, it’sa bit silly of the Irish government to be coming out scare mongering alreadytelling us to vote yes – when the bloody content of the deal hasn’t even beenagreed yet!

The economyis a mess either way so I don’t know that a yes or a no vote on this wouldchange that. I dunno, you really can’t trust anyone with your money these days,can ye?

Progress onthe form study so far:

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Euro down & in-running madness on Betfair

2011-12-13T19:26:00.001Z

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Well, themarkets are not really buying this new Eurozone deal it seems and as some suspected,it’s really just another small plaster on an open wound. It gets them a littlemore time but it’s not a real solution to be honest and I’m not so sure areferendum would pass in countries like Ireland should it arise. Where do we go from here? It’s hard to say. Aftera day of falling slowly yesterday, traders have taken a bearish view of thecurrency against the dollar and as I type, we are now down to the 1.30s.

Frommemory, we haven’t traded this low since January and you’d have to wonder if itwill continue to slide should it break into the 1.20s.

On Betfair,there was in-running madness, joy - and carnage for some at Catterick today:

The winnerDystonia’s Revenge traded at the maximum odds of 1000 (999-1) on Betfair; €36matched at that price.

Runner-up Eighteen Carat (caught close home) traded at the minimum odds of 1.01(1-100).
Quel Ballistic (hampered and unseated 2 out) traded at 1.11 (1-9).
Faller Corkage (8 lengths clear when falling 2 out) traded at 1.15 (1-7).
Third-place Definite Appeal traded at 1.48 (just over 4-9).

Wonder howmany banks were boosted/busted on that one!

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Tricky times

2011-12-07T23:13:00.001Z

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It's been a funny week in the financials with everyone waiting on the big EU summit on Friday. It's kinda exciting to see which way it's all gonna go and it no matter what 'side' you are on, at least it's starting to finally come to a head. There's been a lot of uncertainty and I find it difficult to trade so hopefully by the new year we will at least know where we stand.

Regarding Betfair, the Irish government has announced in the budget that they plan to tax betting exchanges. How this will work remains to be seen and it seems very hard to police. There have been announcements on this before and nothing has happened so I'll see what happens over the next few weeks before I worry too much about it.

Anyway, I'll leave you all with this picture. Ciao!

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A good month

2011-12-02T19:51:00.001Z

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November2011 is now gone forever and were into a new month. November was pretty goodand I’m very pleased with how the form study has been going (the screenshotshows the last 30 bets or so). As you can see, I’ve now got 70 bets under thebelt and the profit to a tenner is €243.10. I’m still going to wait until I’ve got 100 bets under the belt beforeposting these on my site and putting decent money on. You can’t help thinkingthat a ton on each would have yielded a profit of well over two large by nowbut I’m trying not to think that way as you can get cocky and carried away. Asyou can see, I record quite a bit about each selection (most of it will onlymake sense to me) so over time, I can filter out what is or isn’t working.

Again, Idon’t want to get too cocky and it’s possible that I just hit a streak of luckbut the more bets I get under the belt, the more my confidence grows. It hasn’tbeen easy though – I’m up at six in the morning most days now and by the time9pm comes around, I’m knackered.

But gettingup at six has also helped my financial trading and the couple of hours I get inthe morning before I bring my daughter to school is a great time to get stuffdone. It's nice a peaceful and quiet and I've found that I enjoy working away while everyone is still in bed. I’ve been trying out some new strategies in the financial market s and sofar, I’m churning a small profit. Again, I’ll wait some time before going at itwith big stakes as I want to get into a routine.

One of thelads asked me down for poker tonight and I would have loved to go as I haven’tplayed in ages. However, I promised my daughter I’d watch the Late Late toyshow with her later so I guess I gotta stick to my word! Like many Irish homes, staying up late for the Toyshow was a big tradition in my house each year and it's good to do it now with my own family. We might get to play pokertomorrow though, so I’ll see how it goes.

Novemberwas also a good month for my Irish Independent column so I’m pleased aboutthat. I had hit a poor spell for a while but as the National Hunt form startsto bed down a bit, it’s getting a little easier. I’m going to go with SizingEurope in the tingle creek but it’s a tricky race and it won’t be easy to win.

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Great S&P gap trade

2011-11-30T19:20:00.001Z

I spokeabout the S&Pgap trade before and we got a great one today.

In fact, therewas a huge spike in the S&P today after it closed the gap but I had put ina ‘take profit’ order at a certain point as I knew I wouldn’t be at the PC allday to manage the trade. Still, the gap trade itself worked great and a goodprofit was made. If you look at the chart, I have drawn vertical line at 1195.1(where the market closed yesterday).

I got upand watched the market from 6am and it was falling at that point. I was waitingon a turnaround (a 15min green candle) and that happened around 7.30am (pointA). I bought at point A and put in a stop loss. After that, it’s really just amatter of waiting on the gap to close. I had to go to work so I put in a ‘takeprofit’ order just below the black horizontal line. Around 10.45, the markethad nearly closed the gap and I’m confident that it would have done so anywaybut at 11am, the news was out about the Central Banks’ action and the priceshot up. My order to get out was hit at point B.

That’s thedownside to leaving orders, if I had been watching it, I could have left myorder open and enjoyed a huge price move rather than closing out early for aprofit. That said, not watching the markets has its benefits: it takes away theemotion. All in all, it was a good trade and I was very pleased to log in alunchtime to see a nice profit.

On theracing front, I only had the one bet today Derwen Pryde which won at4.0. This brings my form study bets up to 64 bets and the profit to an all timehigh of over €200 to a €10 stake. I’m pleased with that and so far, I’m ontrack to start proofing again soon if it keeps going well.

Haven’t had a look at tomorrow’s racing markets yet – I think I’llget up early in the morning and do it as I’ve a bit of reading I want to dotonight.

Driving, Euro trading, Betfair trading, Racing tips

2011-11-28T11:07:00.001Z

Asmentioned, I’m learning to drive and I’m quite proud of myself after yesterday.OK, it was only half a mile, but I drove down to the local train station andback, taking in some tight bends and a hill start along the way. This was myfirst time on the open road and while I was a little nervous, I felt a greatbuzz afterwards. I’m determined not to lose that bet with the missus and Ithink she’s getting worried! The car has a slow puncture though, so I’ll haveto get that sorted today or tomorrow. I used to fix punctures years back when Iworked in a garage so I should be able to do it myself. I’m going to try tokeep up the driving as much as I can – even just small journeys but often willhelp.

With regardto the trading (financial markets), I’ve been staying away as I just can’t seeany opportunities. No point in trying to trade for the sake of it. The Euro(versus USD) is a puzzle right now – there’s been bad news for most of the weekbut it has rallied strongly this morning (see picture below). At 7.45 am, wewere down around 1.3282 but as I type, we are already up touching near 1.34. Agood bounce trade if you can get it but I’m sitting it out for a bit as I’mfinding it hard to trade. There’s rumour of a massive IMF loan being madeavailable, mainly for Italy, but we’ll wait and see if that materialises.

Haven’t reallybeen trading on Betfair much – I’m working during the daytime and I decided toknock the evening all-weather on the head as I wasn’t making money on that. Ihope to get back to it soon though and I’ve bought a new microphone as I’ve hada number of emails asking me if I’d make some more youtube videos. I’ve sometime off over the Christmas and new year so I hope to clock up plenty of hoursthen – although I do want to actually go to some of Leopardstown (as I do everyyear). I’ve also had a few emails asked if I’d run a trading course for those that are trying to learn – I’ve noimmediate plans to do so but it is something I might think about in the future.There could be a couple of bob in it if I got the right numbers – but when you startcharging people for stuff, there comes a lot of responsibility and extrahassles. I’ll think about it after Christmas maybe but for now, it’s an ideathat is being put on the long finger.

I wascomplaining about a bad run on the horses a few days back but I’ve had a goodturnaround and hit six winners in-a-row with the formstudy stuff I’ve been doing. Funny how things can turn around quite quickly.Years back, I would panic during the bad spells and start changing thingsaround. But when you start to fiddle with things, sometimes you muddlethe whole thing up and end up worse off. You have to prepare for the bad runsand take them on the chin. Likewise, you can’t let the good runs go to thehead. Individual races don’t really matter too much – it’s all about grindingit out over the long term. I’m back over the 50% strike rate which is pleasingso fingers crossed, it continues to go well. As mentioned, I may re-establish thefree tipping website in the future if these continue to be successful. I didn’tcharge for the tips in the past but I used to make a nice couple of bob from affiliatelinks and also donations. I said I’d give it 100 bets before I started proofingagain, just to make sure I could still make it pay, and also to make sure I could get up early everyday and put in the graft! So far, I’ve had 31 wins from 61 bets and the profitto a ten euro stake is around €196. Generally speaking, I’ve been focusing onthe shorter end of the market and the average Betfair SP is 3.32. I'm comfortable with this although the margins are tight. Sometimesthere seems to be an obsession with punters trying to get ‘value’ bets at bigprices but value can be found at all ends of the market and I don’t have anyrules about what price I will or wont take. Some people won’t back odds-on forexample but the only rule I follow is that the horse should have a betterchance of winning (in my opinion) that the odds suggest. If so, then it’s abet. I don't really understand the idea of not taking short prices. If a full strength Manchester United showed up to play the local pub team and someone offered you 10/11 on United, would you refuse as you don't back odds on? OK, it's a silly example but ye get the point.
*

I got upearly and done some work this morning and picked out two interesting ones –although I’m going to watch the market as I’m not 100% on either of them. Inthe 1.30 at Folkstone, Ohio Gol dlooks like a good thing and my own ratings have him some 20lbs clear of thefield. But 1/2 seems a little tight with some unexposed sorts in the field.Hmm, I’ll have to study this on a bit more.

In the 2.55 at Ffos Las, Azitone looks well aheadof the handicapper and by my reading of the form, she should win with plenty inhand. But I have reservations about this one too – I’ve been watching some ofher races and she’s not what you would call genuine. Like most of the fairersex (!), she’s contrary and she onlygives it her all when she feels like it. She’s currently trading around 11/10and I think I’ll have to do a bit more work on this race too before I decide toback.So overall, I think caution is the theme for today.

Anyway,that’s enough rambling from me for now - best of luck with your punting,trading, or whatever else you get upto today.

Euro/Dollar 15 minute chart:

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Great day

2011-11-26T20:21:00.001Z

Had a good day punting so far with my Irish Independent article doing very well. I had Overturn as my main bet which won at 7/4 and Carruthers at 10/1. Just had Half A Sixpence go in there too which is one half of my double. One more to go, Circuitous, at 8.50 which I've backed each-way 'to nothing' although the price is now in to around 3/1.

Hope I don't come across as boastful but ye gotta sing when you're winning! God knows, there's enough losing days in this game.

It's nice to get a few nice priced winners in this side of Christmas - as mentioned I hit a rough patch recently but thankfully, it didn't last too long.

Was out for a few jars with the lads last night so I think I'll just take it handy tonight and do a bit of reading or maybe watch a DVD. Actually, I have one called 'Enron' which is suppossed to be good so I may watch that.

Haven't had a chance to go through tomorrow's form - think I'll get up and do that early in the morning. Won't get to trade the racing as I want to go out and practice my driving. That's going OK although it's proving a bit harder than I thought! I kinda miss the motorbike but I'm going to keep plugging away at it. As mentioned, I've a bet with the missus for €150 that I'll drive down and pick her up from work before Christmas and I hate losing!

Today's Indo:

HORSE RACING can be a great leveller of men and it doesn't let you stay smug for long. Last week, I was feeling a little vainglorious down in the local with the lads when Overturn, which was my main bet of the day, came home at 5/2.
But soon after came the Betfair Chase at Haydock, in which a mate of mine had backed Kauto Star. He asked what I thought of his bet and I told him that Kauto was finished -- and that I wouldn't back him using my mother-in-law's account.
I was bullish about Long Run, but five minutes later my mate was all smiles getting the rounds in while I was sent to the corner of the room to think about what I'd done. But on this occasion, I was happy to be wrong and it was great to see the old battler turn back the years.
I did my dough on it, but as Kauto came over the last, the racing fan in me became stronger than the punter and I actually found myself cheering him on. Win or lose, those type of races remind me why I love this sport.
As mentioned, Overturn took the Coral Hurdle at Ascot last week and I'm happy to stick with the seven-year-old as he takes on Binocular in the Fighting Fifth Hurdle at Newcastle today (2.20).
As pointed out last week, Overturn has got to be one of the most versatile horses in training and we were set for a cracker of a finish before Oscar Whisky fell at the last. Whether Oscar Whisky would have won we'll never know, but Overturn ran a great race regardless, and I was particularly impressed with his jumping this time.
The 2010 Champion Hurdle winner Binocular is a great horse, but I'd have this pair evenly matched, so taking 11/4 over 4/5 is a no-brainer. Indeed, Timeform have them both rated equally and, on official ratings, the handicapper has them only a pound apart.
Binocular's backers have to assume that he's fully tuned up on his first run of the season, as he hasn't been seen since finishing third to Hurricane Fly in the Rabobank Champion Hurdle at Punchestown. He was beaten twice in this race before, so I'm surprised to see the backers get stuck in once again this time around.
On the other hand, Overturn's backers will be hoping that last week's race didn't take too much out of him, although the vibes from the yard are good on that front. While Binocular beat Overturn in the Christmas hurdle at Kempton in January, there has been a lot of water under the bridge since then and I reckon it could be closer than the market suggests.
Celestial Halo is a decent animal and will take them on a good gallop, but it looks like a match between the top two market leaders. At the prices, Overturn is the value option.

EACH-WAY OUTSIDER
I read this week that the inaugural Hennessy Gold Cup in 1957 was won by Mandarin, owned by Peggy Hennessy. Peggy was a member of the family that founded the drink, and it's now the longest commercial sponsorship in British racing.
Trivia aside, though, this is a tricky one to figure out and it looks like Aiteen Thirtythree will go off as favourite.
While that gelding has strong claims, he's a bit short in the betting and preference is for Carruthers, which is generally available at 16/1.
He managed to finish sixth in last year's renewal, which was excellent considering the strong field that included Denman and eventual winner Diamond Harry.
Mark Bradstock's front-running gelding can go the distance, he's a good jumper, and he always gives a genuine effort (3.10 Newbury).

TODAY'S SELECTIONS
2.20 Newcastle: Overturn
3.10 Newbury: Carruthers (e/w)
8.20 Wolverhampton: Haaf A Sixpence
8.50 Wolverhampton: Circuitous (e/w)

DO THE DOUBLE:

SOCCER
Manchester City may be on top of the table but a trip to Anfield is often fraught with danger for the Citizens, and they haven't won there in their last eight league visits. This could be tight and I'm going to play it relatively safe with a double chance bet on Liverpool (win or draw) at 4/7 tomorrow.

HORSE RACING
Haaf A Sixpence ran well to come second in his first career race at Kempton recently considering he took a wide course. While he was no match for the winner, he looks reasonably promising and should land a maiden sooner rather than later. The Enjoy The Party Pack Group Offer Maiden Stakes is a weak enough contest and at 6/4, Ralph Beckett's gelding is a fair price to get off the mark this evening (8.20 Wolverhampton).

Irish Independent

http://www.independent.ie/sport/horse-racing/overturn-can-strike-again-2946404.html

The Euro, a bad spell on the racing, mobile devices, tooth fairy

2011-11-24T10:36:00.001Z

Claimed your free €30/£25 bet yet? If not, why not? Click here for more.

Have tosay, the Euro (versus USD) is proving more resilient than I thought despite allthe bad news. When a product is constantly receiving bad news but still holdsits price, it must be respected. I’m still bearish in my view of the currencybut I was surprised to see it hold above 1.33 and rise back up to over 1.34this morning. This comes on the back of German bonds not selling which did puta bit of pressure on yesterday. I must admit that I feel it should be around1.30 right now but it doesn’t really matter what I think – the markets willhave their way. It’s a holiday in the US so it may be quiet enough, but I thinkI’ll leave the Euro alone for the next while.

By the way,the S&P gap never closed yesterday so I got stopped out for a small loss.Nothing much to worry about though but it’s still a kick up the arse.

***

I mentionedbefore that I’ve been doing some proper form study each day and that it hasbeen going well. But I’ve hit a bad patch and of the last 17 bets, I’ve onlyhad five winners. Included in that, Ihad five losing bets along the way which cost me a few bob. Considering thestrike rate was 50% up to this, it’s a little disappointing. But I’m not tooworried – I did hit 7 winners in a row at one time so the opposite must beexpected now and then. It’s all about taking the good with the bad. Thankfully,the early gains have provided a cushion for the losses and I’m still upoverall. Again, after 100 bets, I’m thinking of proofing these again for mysite (provided it stays successful). As we stand, we have:

Bets: 55
Wins: 24
Strike Rate: 44%
Return on investment: 27.57%
Average price (Betfair SP): 3.54
Profit to €10 stakes: €140.60

I’ve acouple picked out for today – although they are mostly short prices. PleaseGod, they give the bank a little boost:

12.50 Uttox– Golden Chieftain
1.05 Thurles – Apt Approach
2.00 Uttox – Mangonel
2.10 Newb – Grand Crus

***

For anyonewho reads this blog on a mobile device, you should see an improvement in thelayout. I’ve switched to the simple view for smartphones etc rather than theregular webpage. Hope it helps a bit.

***

Best ofluck with your trading/betting today – I could do with a good day as the toothfairly called again last night. A fiver she left!

In my day, you were lucky to get twenty pence as the tooth fairy’s husband “wasout of work” and they hadn’t got much money, according to my old man. Ha ha,God rest him, and God bless the early 80s.
I do remember one particular occasion though, when the tooth fairy’s husband must have foundsome work - as I woke up to find one of these beauties under the pillow:

Course in trading, S&P 500 gap trade, Lingfield racing

2011-11-23T12:09:00.001Z

Finishedthe diploma in Financial Trading last night and I found the course excellent. Ilearned tonnes and am looking forward to putting it into action and hopefullyearning a few bob. I also have access to their trading days in their office onthe 3^rd Friday of the month which I’m looking forward to. Basically,you bring in the laptop and trade with the tutors for the day – they are onhand for mentoring and advice. Can’t go this week but I may try make theDecember one.

The nextstep with my financial trading is to go through all my notes and come up with aproper trading plan. I’ve been doing OK at it but it’s been quite hap-hazardwhich isn’t ideal. There’s no point in jumping on the laptop whenever I can andtrying something out – I need a timetable and must decide when I’m going totrade. I need to know what I’m going to specialise on and what style of tradessuit my personality. For now, daytradingisn’t really an option but I do have the two hour timeslot from 6.30am to 8.30to place a few strategic trades, plus some time at the weekends to look atlonger term positions. I may concentrate on that timeslot for the next month ortwo and see how it works out – although it does mean getting up early each day.Still, I’ve never been afraid of a bit of graft so I don’t think it will be anybother.

One of thetopics on the course was the S&P gap trade and I have an open position onthat today. I’m not giving any secrets away when I explain how it works – it’sone of the most widely known trades out there and as such, it has certain self-fulfillingqualities.

Basically,you check what price the S&P closed at the night before (around 9pm Irishtime). At this point, the Asian markets take over while the Europeans go tobed. In the morning (6.30 to 8.30), you check if the S&P futures hasdropped from that closing price overnight. If so, you buy it and wait on thegap to close to the previous night’s close. It can be quiet for a while butwhen the Americans come in, they usually close the gap as most Americans still preferto buy rather than selling - and don’t like to see us pesky Europeans andAsians shorting their stock. If the gaphasn’t closed by around 3pm, you get out as by that stage, the ‘real’ market isin full swing.

To see anexample, look at the chart below.

Last night,the S&P closed around 1188 (I’ve drawn a black horizontal line at thatprice). I’m basically hoping the price rises back up to this price. You can seein the night/early morning trade, the price went lower and dropped to around1169 at one point.

When I gotup at 6am, the price was around 1172 which was a fair gap from 1188 so I boughtin anticipation of the gap closing before 3pm today. As I type, it’s slightlyup on that and I’m hoping the gap will close up to the black line when theAmericans arrive at their desk.

Asmentioned, because it’s one of the most famous trades out there, it kindabecomes a self-fulfilling prophecy as people buy in anticipation of the gapclose and thus push up the price. Of course, it doesn’t always work and a newsitem could destroy the trade so proper stop-losses should always be in place. I’mheading out now but I hope that the gap has closed by the time I check backaround 3pm. If so, the profit will be in my account and that’ s a good jobdone.

One theracing front, I’ve no huge fancies today although I do think PrincessLexi is worth a punt in the 3.45 Lingfield. She’s off a lower mark here on theall-weather and she ran well for the new yard last time. 3/1 on the machinelooks a fair price.

Best of luck with your trading/betting or whatever it is youget upto today!

Gloomy Monday?

2011-11-21T11:41:00.003Z

Seems to be a gloomy feeling in the markets so far this morning with a lot of major products down.

I'm bearish on the Euro and it's taken a fair hit in this morning's trade. The S&P500 and the EUR/USD have been pretty much tracking each other over the past couple of weeks and it's not surprising to see the S&P down too. I normally like to try the well-known S&P gap trade - but I'm going to give it a miss today as there's been a fair drop this morning and the mood continues to be negative. Besides, we've some 'Existing Home Sales' data due out in the US later so that will probably take over the markets.

By the way, Forex Live is a great site for finding out the latest news that will be coming out each day and how important or not it is - they have an excellent calender for that stuff:

http://www.forexlive.com/economic-calendar/

Make sure you adjust the timezone to suit locally. It's essential to know what big announcements are being made. When I started trading, I'd often forget to check the calenders and the next minute the markets would start going mad over some news and I'd lose a packet!

On the racing front, there doesn't seem to be a lot of opportunities out there although I do like the look of Mangoel in the last at Kempton, priced around 9/5. She wasn't doing much at all but she switched to Jim Best's yard and he seems to have figured her out.

Anyway, here's the Euro vs Dollar 15min chart for this morning, showing the early losses. It's interesting to see it test the 1.346 level numerous times here and fail to break up through. There's almost a straight line of about 6 candlesticks on that level:

Update: racing tips, financial trading, Euro 2012, books on trading

2011-11-17T10:07:00.001Z

Haven’t been online much this week so hence the lack of blogging but here’s a quick update of what’s been going on:

Form study
Going much better than expected. As mentioned, I’m putting the work in each morning and being very selective. The long term view is to get the free tipping site back up in running if I continue to be successful. So far, I’ve had 23 winners from 46 bets – the strike rate has been remarkably consistent around the 50pc mark. I’m very pleased with this win rate as the average price is 3.2 (Betfair SP). A price of 3.2 suggests that the horses should have a win rate of only 31pc so a win rate of 50pc is great. The profit to a €10 stake is €179.90. The longest sequence of winners was seven in-a-row and the longest sequence of losers was 3 in-a-row. I don’t want to get carried away, any high strike-rate strategy is bound to hit on nice winning streaks and that’s possibly what happened - although as the bank and the number of bets build, so does my confidence. If the profit to a tenner is anywhere between €250 to €300 when I’ve 100 bets under the belt, I’ll be a happy bunny. Just one bet for today (Rith Bob, 1.40 Wincanton) although the price will be short.

Diploma in financial trading
Is going great – we are into week 6 and have covered tonnes of stuff. Really starting to form a view on things and the course was definitely worth the money. Some of the work we are doing really reinforces the idea that simplicity is often the key. Who was it that said KISS (keep it simple, stupid)? I think this principle is definitely worth thinking about in trading. Again, some of it is obvious – risk reward ratios, stop losses, not fighting the market, learning to live with a lot of small losses... It’s stuff most traders should know inside out but rarely follow. The course reinforces it all but also gives strategies and insights from traders that have been doing it for a living for donkeys years.

The markets
Haven’t had the chance to trade Betfair in a while with work etc, and the evening racing now finished. I said I’d leave the poor all-weather stuff alone for a bit as I was losing money on it so I’ve done that. On the financials, I’ve been trading in small sums and also using the demo account. I’ll continue to do this until I’m finished the course as I still feel I’m learning all the time. I’ve been mainly selling the euro and trying out some stuff we learned on the S&P on the course. I still have a fairly bearish view overall. I was probably moving a fair bit off my horse racing brief but in my Irish Independent ‘Betting Ring’ column on Saturday, I suggested that the Euro would fall a couple of cent against the dollar this week and it’s went from 1.37 to near 1.34. I’m happy about that – but my racing tips that week turned out to be donkeys! Ah well, ye win some and you lose some.

Ireland soccer
Fantastic to see Ireland qualify for Euro 2012 and it kinda takes me back to the good old days of ‘Jacks Army’. Please God, we’ll have some good times in the summer – half thinking of going over for a match or two.

Books
Currently reading Mastering the trade by John F. Carter. I’m not far into it, just three chapters, but I can tell that this is a really excellent book. It’s very readable (which is rare in the trading genre!) and has plenty of real life examples and strategies. It’s good on the psychology of trading too which is of huge importance. Most trading books are hard work but this one is enjoyable to pick up. I recently finished God in the pits, confessions of a commodities trader by Mark Ritchie. It was a very interesting read (although it’s a good few years old) and mainly concentrates on how he is trying to lead a good (religious) life alongside his other life in the often murky world of trading. It’s very interesting although it’s more of a biography than a trading book.

Cheltenham, Novebmer

2011-11-11T00:38:00.002Z

Anyone who knows me well will be aware that I much prefer punting on the flat and find it easier to make a few bob - so the return of the National Hunt is not something I welcome as much as most Irish people. However, as a spectacle, the NH is always better to watch and it's hard not to get a little excited as the season starts to kick off with some decent races at Cheltehham. Of Irish interest, Garde Champetre is hard to oppose in Friday's Cross County although at 12 years of age, he's no spring chicken. Still, early odds of just under 11/10 on seem pretty decent and I may just have a dabble.

In the soccer, I'm hoping for an Ireland win obviously although their style of play can be odd and I'm not doing to well betting wise under Trap's set-up. We are 4/11 to qualify so fingers crossed we get something away to Estonia.

***

The badge of a Garde Champetre, which is actually what rural policemen are called in France:

So far, so good

2011-11-09T12:19:00.001Z

I mentioned last week that I may set up the tipping site again. As stated, I’ve been putting in some serious form study again and so far its paying off so I’ve a loose plan on what to do with the site. I’m going to continue testing at home until I reach 100 bets at which point I may stick the selections on trial on the blog (before re-establishing the main site).

If it continues to be successful after, say, 100 bets on the blog, I could then start the main site again and start proofing. Not sure if that’s what I’ll do but I want to keep working hard and testing before I decide to get the site up again. Sure we’ll see how it goes. At the moment, I’ve 34 bets under the belt, with 17 winners (50%). The ROI is 50.47% and the average price is 3.57 (Betfair SP). The profit to a ten euro level stake is €171.60.

I don’t expect to continue to hit those highs (especially as the season has changed over) hence the further testing before I post but I have to say, I feel good to be getting up early and doing the old form work again.

Don’t take these as tips ! but there are two selections today I hope will go well – Distime (3.10 Bang) and Sheikh The Reins (5.20). Fingers crossed they go well.

In the financial markets, it’s been a mental week. Can’t believe the Germans and French got rid of Berlusconi. That’s two European leaders in a week – the cynics could say that the takeover is well and truly underway. Markets rose last night but fell this morning and it’s looking like Italy needs a bailout – one that we can’t afford really. Interesting times, although hard to trade.

No more Bunga Bunga parties:

Betfair, Greece & trading the Euro/Dollar

2011-11-04T17:56:00.005Z

Sorry folks, haven’t posted all that much lately, mainly because I haven’t been trading much.

On the Betfair front, I haven’t been around during the day as I’ve a lot on with work and most of the evening stuff has been crap. I’m finding it harder than ever to make money from the low quality all-weather meetings and I get the feeling that there’s not much non-trader money in the markets that can be picked up. The liquidity is low and you see the markets getting manipulated quite a bit so I’m thinking of quitting the poor quality evening stuff – or at least reduce stakes.

On the financial trading, I haven’t done much either as the markets have been mad with all the chaos over Greece. Good old George Papandreou really threw a grenade into the room when he said he’d have a referendum on the bailout! Now he’s backtracked but you’d wonder what he was thinking all along.Whether you agree or disagree with the whole bailout thing, most sides would agree that they are all as mad as hatters.

I’ve been keeping an eye on the Euro against the USD on all of this and was a bit surprised that it didn’t drop a little further. For a good few weeks, it traded in a range from around 1.40 to 1.45 but then took a dive for the month of September. It recovered a bit in October but it’s too hard to predict at the moment and I reckon the best option is to go to cash right now and sit it out for a bit. At times like this, I like to go to my demo account - in that way, I’m continuing to trade (and keep on top of the markets) but not risking any money. There are other influencing factors of course but until the Greece (and possibly Italy!) thing settles, it could be choppy waters. As I type, we are at 1.38 or thereabouts.

Managed to make €320 day-trading the S&P 500 today with a bank of 20K. Pity it was my demo!!

EUR/USD daily chart & my S&P trade.

Good old form study

2011-10-29T20:43:00.003+01:00

Currently working on something that looks promising...

Last year, I ran a (free) tipping site, waynebaileyracing.com and I’m thinking of re-establishing it sometime in the near future.

I got a fairly big following at the time as the profits were OK and made a nice few quid from affiliate links but I stopped tipping as I simply hadn’t got the time. I do miss doing it though and the extra income from both the bets and the affiliates was welcome.

So I decided to start doing some serious form study again, usually early in the morning and so far, the results are positive. If it continues to go well, I may re-establish the tipping site. This time though, I’m only concentrating on a couple of races per day – and if there’s no bets, that’s fine. One of the problems with running a tipping site is that people expect selections every single day (even though it was free). You can also run into problems when you hit a losing run as you get slated on forums etc, but I guess that comes with the territory.

I wouldn’t call it a system as I’m doing from study but I have found that a systematic approach (concentrating on certain races and horses) has helped cut out most of the poor bets and so far, this work has paid off. I’m not sure if or when I’ll get the tipping site going again, I may just stick the selections on the blog, but it feels good to be able to take a few quid from the markets, especially since I'm using my own ratings and tissue prices for the bets. I’ll post about it again in the future but here’s the early results, recorded to €10 stakes at Betfair SP, assuming one was on the maximum 5pc commission:

Bets: 20
Wins: 10
Strike Rate: 50pc
Average price: 2.94
Profit to €10 stakes: 67.20

Here's the qualifiers so far - I'm having a particularly good run the past few days:

Mad markets

2011-10-21T18:33:00.000+01:00

Had a small few quid in one of my trading accounts and tried to do a bit this week but it's very choppy with this whole France/Germany row and I've decided to get out and go to cash for a bit until it settles.

http://www.independent.ie/business/european/debt-crisis-european-shares-soar-on-hopes-leaders-will-hammer-out-deal-to-ease-chaos-2913795.html

Will there be a deal? who knows but I'm afraid of getting caught in one of the many swings so I'll watch from the sidelines.

As I type, the Euro/USD is 1.3844 which is up from a few days ago but still quite low compared to April or may.

Investor & Trader summit

2011-10-13T11:08:00.004+01:00

Took a day off today to go into town for the Investor & Trader summit, run by Marketspreads.

http://www.marketspreads.ie/come-to-2011-investor-trader-summit.html

David McWilliams is the chair and it looks quite interesting. Peter Brown, who runs the IIFT trading course I'm doing, is also a speaker as is Charlie Fell from the Irish Times.

I've been to these sort of things before and I usually find that you learn a few bits and bob.

The IIFT course, by the way, is really enjoyable and I've learned quite a bit in the first two weeks. Can't wait to put some of it to practice but I've decided to open up a demo account again just to try out some of the new strategies before going live with bigger money.

I've no open positions with my live account at the moment - things are still quite funny and it's hard to make a decision about which way the markets going.

Otherwise, I've not much to report.

On a non related note, a mate of mine is giving me a car this weekend :-) I drove a motorbike for years but it's high time I learned to drive a car so I'm looking forward to something new although I am a tiny bit nervous. I have a bet of €150 with the wife - I told her I'd drive down in the car and pick her up from work at Christmas. She says I wont. So I've a couple of months to learn to drive as I sure as hell ain't giving her a ton and half!

Learning to trade (financials)

2011-10-03T13:22:00.002+01:00

I've been doing pretty well trading the financial markets (albeit with a small bank) in the past year and while it's good to pat oneself on the back for a job well done, I won't pretend I didn't catch some good lucky upswings which greatly added to the total. Still, I feel I'm learning all the time and still find it absolutely fascinating, which is great as I don't get bored reading or learning about the topics.

But there's tonnes of room for learning/improvement. Despite keeping in the black, I've really only dipped my toe into the water of financial trading and want to take it a bit further. So tomorrow, I'm starting that diploma with the Irish Institute of Financial Trading and I'm looking forward to it immensely.

The course was expensive, €950 in fact, and I'm not naive enough to think this will be some sort of silver bullet that will make me become a super trader or anything - but there's only so much you can learn at home from reading books/websites and I think the course can't hurt. I've hear very good things about it anyway so fingers crossed.

When I first started trading on Betfair, I lost a fortune and I wish there had been some sort of course out there back then. I eventually done Peter Webb's course (founder of Betangel) and it set me on the right track. That course was expensive too but it paid for itself numerous times over at this stage. Hopefully, this diploma course will eventually earn/save me €950 cost the cost over time.

Elsewhere, I see that Greece hasn't met its targets and we have (yet another) 'crisis' with the Euro. You kinda wonder how many crises' (is crisis' the plural of crisis?) we can go through before the arse just falls out of it.

Whatever happens with the Euro and Greece, hopefully some of us can make a couple of bob out of it somehow. I've no positions at the moment though as I have to get some funds back into my trading accounts (I withdrew quite a lot when I went off on hols).

I've a busy week ahead and my missus is away for the week at Cambridge to study so I doubt I'll get near the Betfair markets as I'll be minding my daughter when I'm not working. If I can nip and hour or two here or there, I'll report on my progress.

Messing in the markets

2011-09-30T19:27:00.001+01:00

Some weird goings on in the Betfair markets today and some person/people were fecking about with some really large orders, pushing the prices around. For the most part, I managed to avoid getting taken out although I’ve decided to quit trading for the day as it’s just too weird.

I don’t know what these people are at sometimes or what the hell their game is. Can they be making money by messing up the markets like this?

If so, more power to them but I don’t like this kind of carry on. As Father Ted might say, “Down with this sort of thing!”

I tried to get a couple of screenshots while it happened. For example, you can see Cunning Act here – it was trading around 5.0 and then whoosh!! this backer takes out thousands and brings it down to 4.0 in just one go!

Later on, this same person was lurking in some other markets trying to bully the prices, using stakes of between 20K and 50K. In this screenshot, you can see him with 25K around the 3.2 price.

A few minutes after this was taken, he moved the stakes down and took out about ten ticks in one go. I’d estimate that there was around 15 grand taken out. Still haven’t figured out how people are making money like this.

Any suggestions?

Anyway, with all these shenanigans going on, I’m happy to jack this in for the day with a profit of just under forty quid:

The magnet effect

2011-09-28T19:54:00.007+01:00

Done a quick round of trading just there - only had an hour as I was working today and I've a few things to do tonight. All went well and I earned just under seventeen quid in that hour. Not huge of course, but pennies make pounds.

I'm reluctant to call it a strategy, but I was using a style tonight that I sometimes refer to as the 'magnet effect'.

I use this sometimes and it has proved useful in the financial markets too. The idea is that people are drawn to round or significant numbers (especially traditional punters) and usually set the minimum/maximum price that they'll take at such numbers. For example, you might hear of someone backing a horse and saying something like "I hope I get 4/1 but the lowest I'll take is 7/2"

In that case, 7/2 (4.5) is the 'anchor' price in that persons head. He's unlikely to say that he'll take a price no lower than 71/20 for example (4.55). Many other people may also have this anchor - so it kinda acts like a bit of a magnet. If the price was 4.6 and slowly shortening, I'd be fairly confident that it would hit 4.5 and maybe bottom out or flatline for a while as people take their prices (and won't go below).

It works the opposite way too sometimes. A price might be trading in between 7.0 and 8.0 for example. But if it's rising slowly and hits say 7.6 or 7.8, I'm usually confident it will be dragged up to the round number of 8.0.

This is why I call it the 'magnet' effect as once the price goes past a certain tipping point, it is 'dragged' to the rounder number, almost like a magnet has a pull on it. Sometimes I'll get in with a quick scalp and lay at 7.6 and back at 7.8 as you'll often find a queue at the round number.

Of course, you have to be careful on Betfair around the 'crucial' prices such as 2.0, 3.0, 4.0, 6.0 etc as the increments change at these points.

I'm not saying it's a fool proof strategy, it's certainly not - but it's worth knowing that a lot of punters still like round numbers. Perhaps it's something we have more of in Ireland and Britain stemming from the traditional non-decimal prices?

Anyhow, here's today's P&L:

Smooth enough day

2011-09-26T17:54:00.001+01:00

As mentioned before, I've been neglecting the Betfair markets lately so I decided to do a few hours today with some small-ish stakes. Going to call it a day as I've to help my daughter with her homework now.

Not a bad old day really but frustratingly, I nearly had a clean sweep except for one race where I lost €2.05. I was also up to twenty quid green on the last race but made some bad calls and had to get out in the end for a profit of just €3.89

20 good races from 21 is nice but it's a little bit annoying when one goes wrong all the same. Still, I'm relatively happy with the sixty five quid earned.

I wasn't really trading any particular style today as such, I was just doing it on instinct and how I felt at the time. I think I'm getting better at this and felt in the zone today - gut instinct is not just guessing, it's all your years of experience trying to come through your sub-conscience. I guess I haven't really nailed down one style and perhaps it's best to keep trying different things to keep on top of the markets.

I was trading since 2pm and it's nearly 6pm now so I guess that works out at over 16 quid per hour. Not earth shattering to be honest but I suppose it's still twice the minimum wage and I won't turn my nose up to it.

Didn't take too much risk today and kept my stops tight. Didn't bother firing up Betdaq today but I'm going to try to use the Daq again later this week.

Today's P&L:

Dublin, gold, education...

2011-09-23T18:46:00.000+01:00

Had an amazing weekend last week with Dublin winning the All-Ireland. I got a ticket at the last minute and I won’t even try to put into words what it felt like to see them win after 16 long years of heartbreak.
Needless to say, we all had a great weekend and please God it won’t be so long before we win again!

Regarding the course I’ve mentioned, I’ve decided to do the Diploma in Financial Trading as an evening course. I had a chat with one of the lads that runs it and we both agreed that the introduction course would probably be a bit too basic. It’s not cheap, but I think it will be worth it. Hoping to start the October course.

I’ve been up to my eyes this week so I haven’t been doing any actual trading. More’s the pity! My ‘momentum strategy’ told me to go short on a shit load of commodities and some indices a couple of days ago but I didn’t get a chance to play. Bloody raging now as loads of prices have collapsed. I feel like I’m missing a lot of opportunities lately with all the market moves so I want to get some proper money back into my accounts and get up and running ASAP.

Gold hourly chart:

I’m getting out for a jar this evening as my daughter is having a slumber party with six other seven-year-olds. Yikes! Before I go though, I think I’ll have a crack at the Betfair markets for an hour or so.

Dublin lift Sam:

Cracking trade…

2011-09-16T19:43:00.002+01:00

But I just wish I had more on!

I was trading a few markets on the machine this evening – nothing too mad as I was keeping an eye on the dinner (roast Angus beef – yum). Anyhow, I layed Monster Munchie at 3.0 and backed Supa Seeker at 5.2. This was based on my ‘momentum’ strategy.

Anyway, I was using small stakes but the next minute... whoosh! Monster Munchie drifts like a barge and Supa Seeker gets hammered in. I then backed Monster Munchie at 4.4 and layed Supa Seeker at 3.95 as the horses were going into the stalls. It was a cracking trade but I’m gutted that I didn’t have much money on. In the end, I made twenty quid which is grand but it was one of those double trades that doesn’t come along too often so I’m a bit peeved all the same. If I had been using full stakes, I could have made hundreds but thems the breaks I guess.

Anyhow, sorry for the lack of posting recently, as some of you know I’ve had some family issues and funerals etc so I haven’t been trading that much. I got back to it this week though and intend on getting back into the financial trading maybe next week.

On the financials front, I’m strongly considering doing a course with the Irish Institute of Financial Trading, possibly the Intro course starting in October.

Readers may be familiar with the guy who set it up, Peter Brown, who often appears on shows like Vincent Brown etc.

Anyhow, I went to one of his talks the other night and went in with a fairly closed mind expecting a hard sell. It was anything but – he talked with passion about the markets and really got me interested. The courses are expensive but you get quite a lot covered so I might just treat myself.

On the GAA front, my beloved Dublin play Kerry in the All Ireland Final on Sunday. I still haven’t got a ticket but I’ll watch it in the pub in town anyway for a bit of atmosphere. I was 15 the last time we won Sam (1995) so this will be one hell of a special day if we can do it again. Win or lose, I’m going to have a good day out and a nice few jars regardless!

On the reading side, I've finished a lot of books since I last done a book review. Don't have time to go into details right now but New Market Wizards turned out to be a cracking read and gave me plenty of ideas. I've got my hands on both Nick Leeson books since watching 'Rogue Trader' and the one about stress proved very insightful. At the moment, I'm reading 'God in the pits' and so far, so good. Hopefully I can do some reviews when I get time.

Off now to eat that roast…

Back with the 'daq

2011-09-10T12:45:00.002+01:00

Haven't used Betdaq in donkeys so I'm going to have a play around today just to see what liquidity is like.

They should have picked up some customers from Betfair over the years through commission/premium charge and other PR disasters but I'm not quite sure they've capitalised on the negativity towards Betfair. If they had done a Ryanair style ad campaign criticising their opposition, I'm sure they'd have more customers but they didn't seem to go down that route.

Anyway, from first glance, liquidity seems very light across some sports although it's still very early in the day. But for example, on the St Leger, Betdaq have only matched one fifth of what Betfair has.

I noticed a few arbing opportunities over the past couple of days between the exchanges (backing on one, laying on the other) but whether or not it would work in reality (bots mopping them up & actually getting matched on Betdaq) remains to be seen - might give some a try today anyway.

Back to the grind / family time

2011-08-29T13:16:00.001+01:00

After nearly a month away from working/betting/trading, the hols are over and it's back to the grind. In some ways it's nice to get back to routine although it's going to take a while to catch up on all the racing/trading news that happened while I was away.

Gold kept going while I was away which was difficult to watch - although it's retraced a little for now.

Sadly, there's been yet another death in the family so I probably won't be getting back into the swing of things for another week or so as I'll be travelling to England for a couple of days.

I'm back to work for a couple of days for now but I want to spend some time with the family over the funeral.

Rollercoaster

2011-08-18T13:42:00.000+01:00

I see gold is up around €1810, not much sign in it running out of steam just yet although I thought this was interesting:

"In the last 10 years it's gone up 17 per cent a year, but the price of things we purchase has only gone up 3 per cent a year. That's unsustainable. It's my own opinion that gold prices will collapse -- I just don't know when," Thomas said.

Article: http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/...ow/9646372.cms

I'm happy to trade gold on the way up and I'll do so on the way down too - but who knows when, if even, it will crash? If you ask me, there could be a bit of a rollercoaster ahead for gold traders and I reckon if one keeps an open mind and doesn't get too entrenched on the long/short side, there could be money to be made in the dips and hills.

Gutted over gold

2011-08-17T14:47:00.003+01:00

As mentioned, I decided to sell all my stock before I went to Canada but typically, one of my favourites (gold) went to Pluto while I was away. In fact, if you look at the chart below where I've put an X at the day I left, the big price rise almost coincides with when I went!

The reason I sold out was because I wasn't sure how much I'd be able to get online while away and I didn't want to spend my hols trying to manage positions. As it turned out, I was online a bit and couldn't help checking prices - which made the price rises painful. I reckon I missed out on a couple of grand but there are lessons to be learned and I'm going to take it as such. Here's some thoughts/reflections on the situation:

1. Stop losses: Why didn't I just set a stop loss and let my position ride? I'm not really sure. I guess I just wanted to be out of the markets for a bit and go to cash while forgetting about money and enjoying the hols. I must admit though, I still thought about trading a lot and missed it - perhaps I've got the bug somewhat stronger than I thought. Even though I haven't been trading massive sums, I tried and failed to put trading out of my head. However, I realise now that being out of the markets, even just for holidays, can be costly. If I'm going to be a trader, I'm going to have to realise that this is a 365 day a year pursuit. In the future, I'll keep my positions while on hols and set stops if I think I won't have access to them.
2. Internet access: I had Internet access in Canada (of course) and I had my phone too, which can be used to trade if really necessary. In the future, I'll check out how much or little Internet access I'll have before I go, and act accordingly.
3. Getting on late: I half thought about buying Gold while over there but couldn't really bring myself to get on late. I missed another opportunity. The price is what it is at any given time, and it's either a buy or a sell, but it's harder than it seems to buy after an upsurge. I'll have to try get around the psychology of this one as I've often held back after a surge, when I should have been adding to my position.
4. Strategy: While I broke my strategy by selling everything before I left, a positive point is that I know some things are working. It's cold comfort to say that 'if I had stuck with my strategy, I'd have earned a couple of grand' but it happens to be true. For me, that's a positive and I'm going to see my trades through in the the future. At the end of the day, there will be many more rises and plunges in the future. The markets will always be there so one missed trade is no big deal. In fact, I didn't lose money as such so this can be treated as a positive learning experience rather than the usual costly ones!

I'm off to Gran Canaria on Saturday so no point in getting back into it until I'm back but I'm raring to go again so I can't wait to get cracking again when I'm back. I'm also going to give the Betfair and Betdaq markets a lash too when I'm home as I've been neglecting those in favour of the financial markets.

Gold daily chart, including the date I missed the surge:

Frankel

2011-07-28T12:15:00.001+01:00

Regular readers of the Irish Independent will know that I've been a massive Frankel fan going back some time and yesterday's 'dual on the downs' with Canford Cliffs confirmed that we have a proper star on our hands .

It's not often we see proper greats - Sea The Stars was the last one for me and it doesn't matter if you have a bet or not - watching these animals should give great entertainment.

That said, with 10lbs in hand on Timeform ratings and 11lbs by my own ratings, I couldn't resist having a bet so I put half a monkey (€250) down at 4/6, which returned €415 including my stake. I done it 'old style' in the bookie shop as I wanted to buy a new suitcase in Dunnes for my hols.

Heading off on Wednesday and I'm really looking forward to it. It won't really be a mad holiday, more of a family one, but I'm just looking forward to some time chilling out, reading a few books, and having a few beers. Perfect.

If you somehow haven't seen it yet, just watch this, 'The Freak, Frankel' winning yesterday:

Ah rats!

2011-07-25T10:11:00.000+01:00

Just after I sell my gold, it starts heading to Pluto!

The whole US debt thing could be more serious then we imagined it seems. Shouldn't complain as I've made plenty from gold in the past but it was a bit of bad timing in fairness. Gold out near $1620 at the moment.

I'm a sellout

2011-07-24T14:18:00.000+01:00

Sold all my remaining positions on marketspreads and ordered a cheque which I've lodged in my bank account.

No, I'm not giving up the trading, I've just decided to spend some of it on my upcoming holidays and some other stuff. I'm off to Canada for a couple of weeks and then Gran Canaria for a week so the last thing I want is to be going online each day trying to manage my positions. It's important to take proper holidays away from trading and it's important to spend the money sometimes too. I'm owed some money in September so I'll be re-lodging the money and starting back where I was.

While it's important to build your bank, if you don't make withdrawals now and then, it just becomes a numbers game on the screen and not very 'real'. I like to build my bank but I also like spending it sometimes too - that's what all the effort is for after all right?

Besides, the legal status of gambling in Canada is very grey so many sites are actually blocked and I don't want to spend my holidays wondering about the price of commodities. I just want to relax.

It was a fairly good week anyway with a realised profit of €183 after I sold some open trades:

Combined with the rest, I made a decent withdrawl and treated myself to a couple of new tattoos.

One is the image of Christ with the crown of thorns and the other is my daughter Aislinn's name in the Old Irish Ogham alphabet.

I got the one of Christ for a very good price but good old Catholic guilt kicked in! Before I left for the tattoo place, I was watching those horrible pictures from the horn of Africa. Terrible stuff. So I've decided to donate the price that the tattoo cost to Trocaire and Concern who are working out there. I think it would have been a bit hypocritical to spend a couple of ton on a tattoo of Christ and then say feck the poor people. Bloody guilty Irish Catholic upbringing eh?

Anyway, I'm heading off on hols in just over a week - I've taken all of August off so other than backing a few horses, I won't be doing too much on the betting/trading front until then.

Off now to watch the hurling - UP THE DUBS!

Gold above $1600 per ounce

2011-07-18T11:51:00.003+01:00

As mentioned, I took a little break from trading and while I was away, my stop loss on wheat was hit costing me fifty quid.

However, some gold and silver I bought the other day are performing, as is my crude oil - so my remaining trades are currently in profit to about €220:

Sometimes gold can be so predictable and it's by far my most profitable commodity to trade. With the debt concerns in both Europe and the United States, investors were going to go back to the 'safehaven' of gold, for a while at least. It was a no-brainer to buy really, especially when I seen the price rise in the Aisan markets before all of us Europeans, never mind the Americans, woke up out of bed.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5hrzCh-3gjo5gqSkXudVdgR2cYkNQ?docId=CNG.cb180817b2ff542e99883215ba4f5f71.01

Whether or not it's a bubble doesn't really concern me overall as I'm getting in and out and making a few quid riding the wave along the way. If everything settles down in Europe and the US, gold may well plummet although my own view is that the debt crisis' will get worse before they get better and I still think some banks and countries are cooking the books.

It took a while to happen but now that's its broken through the $1600 mark for the first time, will it push on?

Time with family

2011-07-12T11:19:00.000+01:00

Sadly, one of my cousins has died so I'm not really in any mood to spend time trading this week. Besides, the funeral is on Thursday. He was only in his 30s so it's a very sad time for all the family.

I've set up stop losses on my open trades and will probably return to it next week.

Earned a few bob

2011-07-09T20:59:00.002+01:00

Had a decent day of punting with a couple of winners for my Irish Independent column:

http://www.independent.ie/sport/horse-racing/red-jazz-can-call-the-tune-2817240.html

While the main tip, Red Jazz, didn't win, I had Western Pearl e/w (placed at 25/1), Dream Ahead (won at 7/1, well done Hayley Turner with her first Group One win) and Redact at 4/6.

Actually, I've Redact in a double with Dublin tomorrow (Dublin to score first, lead at HT and win the match) so hopefully the Super Blues won't let me down!

It's been a while since I've had a fairly decent day punting so I'm enjoying it ;-)

Come on you boys in blue!

Got my €180 back (nearly)

2011-07-08T00:57:00.004+01:00

It's a funny old game this trading. The other day I moaned about losing €180 on oil but as I type, the three commodities I'm trading are in profit to the tune of €178 or so.

While I haven't actually cashed in yet and realised those profits, it's nice to get back in business and maybe earn back those losses.

As mentioned, I've tonnes of work on as I'm going on hols in August so I haven't got near Betfair in ages - but this type of trading is keeping my betting brain active and is less time consuming than the racing trading in that you don't have to sit at the PC all day.

So far, so good, but I'm still quite green and am anxious to keep on learning.

Current open trades:

Wheat, Copper, Crude

2011-07-04T12:20:00.000+01:00

Just an update on some open positions from a few days ago...

I've sold wheat, bought copper, and bought crude oil.

It's the oil that's proving tricky one again and that one isn't in profit as yet. From all the commodities I've traded, oil seems one of the more tricky ones as there are so many variables that can affect the price.

Open trades:

€180 loss :-(

2011-06-29T18:46:00.000+01:00

A good lot of markets including some commodities rallied yesterday and today, partly in anticipation of Greece's vote on their new bailout. Whatever the reasons for the oil surge, it wasn't good for my trade and I hit my stop loss today.

Got out for a loss of €180, but that's the way it goes sometimes. Still well up on commodities overall but it still hurts to take a loss!

Selling oil

2011-06-27T13:21:00.002+01:00

I wonder if the whole oil thing is going to settle down?

Perhaps the end is in sight in Libya, although we can't be certain on that. Anyhow the price of Brent Crude has dropped to around $103-104 per barrell and I've decided to sell at 0.20 stake on Market Spreads - which effectively means I'll gain/lose €20 for every dollar fall/rise.

The International Energy Agency has announced a release of 60 million barrels from reserves so that has eased demand somewhat.

I sold Brent Crude Oil this morning at $103.49 and at the moment, I'm showing a loss of about fifteen quid. I've a stop loss in place around $112.

It will be interesting to follow this one over the next couple of weeks I reckon.

Current open trade, plus the Brend Crude Oil weekly chart:

Nice day

2011-06-26T19:31:00.001+01:00

I was going to go to the Curragh for the Irish Derby, then I was going to go to Croke Park for the Dublin match - but in the end, I stayed back and spent the day on the beach with the family. It was a lovely day in Dublin so I decided to enjoy it. I still love the view over Killiney, not matter how often I see it:

I only live a few minutes walk from the beach and feel lucky to do so.

Anyhow, I listened to the radio while on the beach and was delighted with the Irish Derby result. I had tipped Treasure Beach in yesterday's Irish Independent and those around me on the beach must have thought I was nuts when I started shouting loudly at the radio as the race progressed:

http://www.independent.ie/sport/horse-racing/treasure-has-hidden-appeal-2805702.html

Then the Dublin/Kildare match came on - I had backed Dublin but knew it would be tight. I've yet to watch the highlights but it seemed like a real nailbiter with the Dubs winning by a point.

Happy days!

The costliest cup of coffee ever!

2011-06-22T20:08:00.006+01:00

Those of you that know your coffee may have heard of Kopi Lewak, which is generally regarded as the most expensive coffee that money can buy. A cup of the stuff costs a whopping €50, although I can beat that. I've just had a coffee which cost me €55!

I haven't been near Betfair in ages so when I had a spare hour earlier, I thought I'd trade a few races. I had the kettle on the boil and placed €55 on Dr Finley, thinking the price would shorten. It was pretty lightly traded, the race was 2m, and the race looked like it was getting delayed so I nipped down to the kitchen to quickly grab a cup. I quickly chatted to someone on the phone and forgot about the open trade for a moment.

I ran back upstairs with the steaming coffee in hand when I realised the time - but I wasn't too worried as I thought I'd get out handy enough if the race was delayed. Not so! It was too late. It turned out to be the most expensive cup of coffee I ever made:

On a more positive note, the price of wheat fell quite a bit today. I sold it a few days ago (albeit with small stakes) and my trade is currently in the black to the tune of over €40. Not bad for my first ever wheat trade!

I've now moved my stop loss to ensure I make at least a pony (€25) on the trade but hopefully, it will continue to drop:

On another positive note, I've made my first ever withdrawal from one of my non-sports trading accounts (Marketspreads) today. Sometimes, you gotta take some profit and enjoy it so I ordered a monkey and two ponies (€550) and this will help pay off some of my holiday to Canada:

I know it's important to build up your bank but it's also important to enjoy spending some of your earnings too - when the cheque arrives, it makes the money real and it's a reminder of why you spend hours on end sitting in front of that damn screen!

(and don't tell the missus, but I may just buy some Neil Diamond tickets for Saturday with part of the money).

Nice move

2011-06-20T19:20:00.001+01:00

Went down to stay with my brother in Wicklow for the weekend as it was his birthday so I didn't do any trading. I really enjoyed the break and we had great craic and a nice few drinks.

That wheat I sold the other day at 726.20 has dropped as I expected and now trades at 695.5. That's a fair bit of a swing and makes me wish I had more on but in fairness, it was my first time trading this commodity so I wanted to play it cautious as I learn the ropes. At the moment, the trade is in profit of roughly a pony so I'm going to set a trailing stop and make sure I come away with something.

I've a few thinks going on at home at the moment and could have a busy week so I'm not sure I'll get near Betfair at all this week - I'll try keep on top of the non-sports trading though.

Current open wheat trade:

Less complicated that it looks

2011-06-17T10:06:00.002+01:00

Someone emailed me about my 'momentum' strategy with regard to commodities so I'll briefly outline what I'm testing. I have it all automated in a spreadsheet so it only takes me minutes each day to monitor.

When I decide to start monitoring a commodity, I make a note of its buy and sell price in columns B and C (see attached picture). The idea is to trade the commodity when it moves in price by 5% or more in either direction.

Each day, I'll make a note of the new prices and enter them in columns J and K. Lucky enough, I have screen reading software so I can simply copy and paste the data from the markets and I don't have to type in all the figures.

Column Q compares the original price of the commodity when I started monitoring it to the new price and tells me how much it has moved (in percent terms).

If and when a price moves by more than 5%, a message will pop up in column R telling me to 'Buy' or in column S telling me to 'Sell'. As you can see, Wheat has moved more than 5% down from the original price so hence the 'Sell' signal.

The rest of the columns are just the maths and other notes but it's a fairy simple way of monitoring price movements without having to manually compare prices each day (which is time consuming).

I also have a similar setup for Betfair trading where I get a bot to send the live price feed to my spreadsheet.

Looks a bit complicated but it's handy!

Gold (Cup) and wheat

2011-06-16T20:59:00.002+01:00

I was delight to see Fame And Glory stay the distance in the Ascot Gold Cup today - I think most of us loved Yeats and it would be nice to see another Irish stayer doing the rounds. Royal Ascot has been OK from a punting point of view thus far, nothing huge earned, nothing huge lost.

I traded wheat for the first time today - it's a very interesting one and is quite weather dependent:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-16/wheat-drops-for-a-fourth-day-as-european-rainfall-eases-production-concern.html

The one downside to trading the less common traded commodities is that the spread/broker fee is usually larger. Spread firms and brokers keep their margins to a minimum on things like gold and silver as they don't want to lose business but the spread on lesser traded stuff can be big which puts you on a losing foot from the outset. I took the opinion that the price would drop - mainly based on the weather but also based on the fact that it has been on a downward trend recently which may continue, which ties in with my momentum stuff. As it's my first time trading it, I only used small stakes. I opened my trade by selling at 726.20 and as I type, it's trading around 704.50. As usual, I wish my stakes were bigger! But I'm showing a profit of over seventeen quid at the moment which is fine by me:

Recovery

2011-06-16T10:42:00.001+01:00

Those 'sells' on Wall Street and the S&P500 recovered yesterday as both indices dropped.

Having gone through the trades again, I realised that I had made some schoolboy errors with my figures so rather than let the trades run, I decided to sell out most of it. The trades shouldn't have been placed in the first place - I mixed up some columns in my spreadsheet that indicate if I should trade or not which was pretty foolish, but at least I've spotted the error.

I sold out (or bought rather) most of it anyway for a profit of €30 and left a small few bob running with a stop loss to get me out for a small profit no matter what. The running trade is currently in profit of €15.20.

I know it was pure luck, but I'm pretty happy with the turnaround - at one stage yesterday when I discovered the error, I considered getting out for a loss of €130 but then the American markets opened and quickly dropped so I sat it out.

I'm pleased to have made a small profit but I'm displeased to have made a stupid error with my figures.

Closed trades & remaining open trade:

Frankel, Wall Street, S&P, So You Think

2011-06-14T22:39:00.000+01:00

Had a pretty large bet on Frankel today and I have to say I got a scare. I argued yesterday in favour of backing short prices (when appropriate) but the old ticker was pumping when Queally let him go, a bit early it seems. In fairness, he only hit 1/2 in-running so there probably wasn't too much to worry about but I had a fair whack on so I felt relief afterwards. What next? The Juddmonte I'd guess, but I'm not so sure about a mile and a quarter. Cecil mentioned meeting Goldikova/Canford Cliffs - what an awesome race that would be!

Regarding the trading, I sold Wall Street and the S&P 500 yesterday hoping that they would drop a bit - I was basing it on some fundamentals but mainly the momentum strategy. Unfortunately, both rose today so as you can see in the picture below, I'm currently in the red of about €122 overall. I have stop-losses in place so I'm not hugely concerned but it would be nice for both to fall over the next few days!

I guess the banker for most at Royal Ascot tomorrow is So You Think. As I write, he's trading around 1.43 which is probably about right. I had him chalked up at 1.4 so technically, I should have a bet since it's a couple of ticks higher than my tissue. What I may try do though, is trade that race and try to get a green book on SYT. I'll have a bit more of a look later. Australians, of course, know all about the former Bart Cummings animal and how talented he is - his Irish races haven't done him any justice whatsoever as yet so it'll be good to see the five-year-old in action at Ascot.

Oil and Ascot

2011-06-13T10:42:00.002+01:00

Well, my oil trade hit its trailing stop and got me out for a profit of €27.40 in the end. This is somewhat disappointing considering the trade was showing an unrealised profit of over sixty quid at one stage - however, I did make a profit so I shouldn't complain as you can't expect to hit the top each time. As I mentioned before, if I can ride along taking some money out of the markets along the way, I don't care if I catch the highs and lows really.

Having re-read Mark Shipman's Big Money, Little Effort over the weekend, I'm going to set up some spreadsheets and put some of his strategies into action. That book gets mixed reviews on amazon but I thought it was decent enough although it could have been fitted into a few pages as its basically a strategy based on moving averages. It's a well known momentum type strategy - when a certain short term MA crosses over the long term MA, it's time to buy (or sell when the opposite happens).

I'm also going to spend some time today working on my momentum based trading - this time on the non-sports markets - and I'm going to set up some spreadsheets etc later.

On the racing front, Royal Ascot starts tomorrow and it's one of my favourite festivals of the year. Pure, top-class flat racing is a joy to watch and the form stands up very well. Cheltenham and the likes are great fun but I much prefer punting on the flat and I'm thinking of having my biggest bet of the year on the awesome Frankel in the St James' Palace Stakes.

The going might be a bit soft after the rain but he's so good I don't think it will matter - besides, he's won on softer ground before.

If you get into the business of backing horses at 4/11, the old 'value' argument will crop up again. Short prices don't bother me though, and value can be found on both ends of the market. In fact, the market is far more efficient at the short end. I hate using the word cert as there's no such thing - but I find it very difficult to picture Frankel being beaten. If I were asked to lay, I'd have him at 1/4 so if I'm to put my money where my mouth is, there is no other option but to back at 4/11 as that's clearly over-priced in my opinion.

Fair enough, I'm not going to win any awards for originality for picking Frankel but there's nothing wrong with backing short prices in my view - especially with top class flat horses.

For example, since 2003 at Royal Ascot, there's been 11 horses odds-on with 7 of those winning:

An overall profit of 0.85pts was shown if you backed them all.

However, if you concentrate on the top class horses only, say, horses rated over 100, then we get 3 winners from 3 bets, and a profit of 2.1pts.

(data thanks to Horse Race Base)

I know it's way too small a sample to draw any meaningful conclusions but I'm just trying to emphasise to people who won't back odds-on that it's not as risky as it seems.

He could lose, of course, but I'm certainly excited about seeing this colt in action again- he's an absolute superstar.

Shoulda, coulda, woulda

2011-06-09T22:22:00.003+01:00

Well, oil is pushing towards $120 a barrel which is great for my trade but it leaves me wishing I had bought more than 20c a pip at $116.36. If hindsight were foresight, I'd be a feckin' millionaire by now. Shouldn't complain though - at them moment, the trade is in profit of over 60 quid which is double what it was yesterday.

I've thought a little more about when to get out of this one. Normally, when a trade pushes roughly 2.5% further than I've bought it, I'll sell a third of it. Then, when it hits 5% more than I've bought it, I normally sell the second third.
I then leave the last third to run.

But this time, I've simply set a stop at $117. In this way, I'm now guaranteed something at least. But rather than selling some as described above, I'm going to hold the lot. If it keeps rising, I'm going to move the stop higher, a sort of a manual trailing stop if you will. In this way, if it moves forward a decent amount, I will have the full stake earning me money rather than a small portion.

Deciding when to get out is an inexact science though and is often as difficult as deciding on whether to open a trade in the first place!

Open Brent Crude Oil trade:

OPEC

2011-06-09T10:43:00.000+01:00

I see OPEC could not agree on increasing/decreasing oil production after their meetings this week. I expected oil to jump a little more than it did since production wont be increased but to be honest, sometimes the markets have these things anticipated and I reckon the announcement has probably been built into the price anyway. It went up a bit on Tuesday but not massively. The USA starts trading in a few hours so it will be interesting to see all the same how oil goes today. My own stuff is still floating around the same price, around 30 quid in profit.

New York's main contract, light sweet crude for July delivery, gained 49 cents to $101.23 a barrel and Brent North Sea crude for July delivery rose 27 cents to $118.12.
The Vienna meeting yesterday broke up without agreement, keeping its official output target at 24.84 million barrels per day, where it has stood since January 2009.
'Unfortunately, we are unable to reach a consensus this time to reduce or raise our production,' OPEC Secretary General Abdullah El-Badri said after the meeting.
Traders had earlier speculated that the 12-nation Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) would boost production quotas to cool oil prices. The International Energy Agency said it was 'disappointed' by OPEC's decision and urged producers to pump more anyway to avoid higher oil prices.
The next OPEC meeting will be in mid-December in Vienna to reassess the oil market situation, said Iran's caretaker oil minister Mohammad Aliabadi, whose country holds the rotating OPEC presidency.
Some OPEC members are worried that the oil market will tighten in the coming months - as seasonal demand hits a peak in the northern hemisphere summer - pushing oil prices even higher.
Coupled with the continued unrest in the oil-producing Middle East and North African region, analysts expected oil demand to rise in the next few months.
http://www.rte.ie/news/2011/0609/oil-business.html

Back buying oil

2011-06-08T20:13:00.000+01:00

A couple of weeks ago, I started tracking the price of oil again when it was trading around $110-111 per barrel of brent crude.

I decided to use the 'momentum' strategy to see if I could hop on the bandwagon of a swing so I bought some today when the price had moved up more than 5%. I bought at $116.36 (not a lot mind) and it's now trading at $117.83 so hopefully it will keep rising. At the moment, the trade is in profit of around thirty quid. I'm not overly-opinionated on oil but I've a general feeling from following news issues in the middle-east that there's going to be more instability so I've an inkling that it will rise a little over the next few weeks. Going to set a stop-loss however just in case.

Brent Crude daily chart:

Two ponies

2011-06-04T18:18:00.003+01:00

I traded for around two hours today and made fifty quid so I'm reasonably pleased with that. That equates to a pony an hour which isn't too bad.

Not going to bother with the evening racing - I'm off out for a few pints later to watch the Ireland match. I've backed Ireland to win at 6/5 - not extremely confident about that bet but we need the points and I reckon we can scrape it.

So what about the Derby? I had Seville backed so was left disappointed but I'd also layed Carlton House so I didn't win or lose on the race overall. I flagged Pour Moi as a danger in my Irish Independent artice today so wasn't to surprised with the win. What was surprising though, was Mickael Barzalona standing up in the irons before he crossed the line! Perhaps he mis-judged the line but he's lucky he didn't feck it up all the same. Still, he's a fantastic young jockey and looks extremely naturally talented. It was his first ride in the Derby and I wonder if he'll be the next big thing. I think there's a little bit of a showman about him, similar to Frankie Dettori but I reckon the sport needs these kind of people and it makes it more fun.

As regards the trading, it went pretty good and wasn't too difficult. On such a scorcher of a day, it would have been a sin to stay indoors so I took my whole set-up out to the front garden, laptop, cables and all! Some passers by were probably wondering what the feck I was doing but I enjoyed sitting, working in the sun.

Once again, I was mainly using my momentum trading strategy and it went well - although I must think more about when to get out of a successful trade. I'm probably getting out too early to be honest and some big swings were missed as I had taken the money off the table too early. Generally, I sell half my stake a few ticks down and let the rest run but perhaps I should let more of it run instead. Anyway, it was a fairly decent couple of hours trading so I won't complain too much.

It's thirsty weather, so it's now time to have a jar!

Selling the silver

2011-06-02T09:55:00.001+01:00

Well, my remaining silver hit my stop and got me out. Those trades were my first proper sliver trades (other trades were just with pennies) so I'm well pleased with myself for bagging a total of €211.16. It was simple enough really - I used a similar strategy to that I've been discussing lately - I waited for the silver market to move by 5% in any direction and then bought/sold. In this case, it moved up by 5% so I jumped on the bit of momentum and made a bit.

It doesn't always work but it's a good strategy as long as you keep your stops in place.

Closed silver trades:

Hard day at the office

2011-06-01T21:02:00.000+01:00

Traded some evening stuff tonight but only earned just over twenty-six quid in around three hours. Some of my mates think this trading lark is easy but once again, that type of money is minimum wage stuff and it ain't always as easy as it looks!

Markets seemed a bit funny again - plenty of spoofers putting in big orders and taking them out again - this pisses me off, although I will admit to doing it myself in the past so I can't really complain. The best course of action is to ignore it I feel, as they are only doing it to try fool people and probably won't commit their money if it came down to it.

I'm glad I made some money - even if it was only a pony - but it was a tricky night somehow and far from plain sailing as you can see from the p&L.

Feel quite tired so I'm not going to bother with the last two races. Going to just watch them now before turning the news on, then I'll probably read a little and head to bed! Not a very exciting night really!

Monday

2011-05-30T21:54:00.002+01:00

Only got home from work around six so by the time I helped my daughter do her homework (she's in an all-Irish school and my wife's not Irish so I usually help her with the homework) and have dinner, it was near seven o clock so I only got to trade for an hour or so - there was only one Irish meeting on anyway so it wasn't too hectic.

Sometimes I'm wary when there's only one meeting on - am I mostly pitting my wits against other traders? If there's not many causal punters out there, sometimes that can be the case. The volumes were a bit more than usual for a small Irish meeting so I'm guessing that there were a fair few traders providing liquidity. That can be hard sometimes as were are all trying to get one up on each other and there's not much general 'punter' money floating around for the taking.

Still, I'm happy with a profit of just over a score on the three races that I did actually trade. Once again, I was using my new strategy and it's still going well thankfully. Actually, from here on in, I think I'll call it 'momentum' trading, just for simplicity. It goes with the flow, so that's as good a name as any.

New strategy working well

2011-05-28T17:19:00.000+01:00

I decided to set aside €500 today and test my new strategy again for the day. I done 23 markets and I'm very pleased with the profit of €73.95. That's an excellent return on the €500 I was using to test and I'm getting more confident that it works. I still need to do some more testing but if it continues to do well, I can start using bigger sums than the €500 test bank.

It's funny because up until now, I was always a scalper and took a tick or two here and there when I could - but this is more of a swing trade strategy and I'm enjoying the new experience.

A few people emailed me asking how it works. As I said to them, it's under test - so I'm NOT SUGGESTING IT WILL BE PROFITABLE in the future - I could be just lucky. But with those health warnings in place, I can briefly describe what I've been upto.

The idea is that when a horse starts steaming or drifting, people often underestimate how low or high the price can go. So you wait until there is some momentum behind a move, and then simply go with it. It aint rocket science, it's just simply the old 'trend is your friend' principle.

How do you decide when to jump on? Well, at the moment, I'm using a price move of 5 percent as a guide. I may change this in the future but that's what I've been testing.

So then, if a horse is priced 6.0 for example, I simply wait until the price either comes in, or drifts, by five percent. If the price moves down to 5.7, that's a five percent move. Likewise, if the horse drifts out to 6.3, that's a five percent move.

So let's say it hits 5.7, I then back it and hope the trend continues. At the moment, I'm using a stop loss of the original price - in this case, the stop would be 6.0.

In case you all think I'm amazing at maths and can quickly work out the percentages of a number of horses in an instant, I'm afraid you'll be disappointed! I've set up a spreadsheet to help me out. This is where having two screens on my computer (pictured below) can really help. Firstly, I get Betting Assistant to display the live prices in the spreadsheet. At any given time, I copy and paste a list of the 'last prices matched' into a column which works out what a 5 percent price move on each horse would equate to.

This spreadsheet is on my screen on the right, and my Betting Assistant trading window is open on my left screen. I have the spreadsheet to change colour when the price has moved on a horse by 5 percent. It goes blue to alert me to back, or pink to alert me to lay.

At the moment, I'm only trading the top two in the betting - I may try more later on.

Anyway, that's about it really - I only had one race go really bad today costing me over fifty quid but the good news is that I could have redded up in that case for €11. Instead, I didn't and let it stand but the horse won. So the results should actually be a good deal better than the 74 quid or so earned.

I've finished up for the day as I want to enjoy the evening - The Munster/Leinster match is on - then the Barca/United match - and then I'm out with the missus for a meal. What's more, she got a voucher for the meal from some friends so I won't have to spend a penny. :-)

Don't think I'll get to trade tomorrow as I've a shit load of stuff to do in the garden - including cutting hedges. Sigh!

meh...

2011-05-25T21:10:00.000+01:00

Traded the evening races and while I should be happy to have made over €28, it was hard earned and the markets seemed tough tonight.

It wasn't a waste of time but it's minimum wage money when you work it out by the hour so I aint overjoyed either. All that said, it's better than losing and when I combine it with the silver commodity trades mentioned earlier, I managed to pull in a couple of ton which isn't a bad days work I suppose.

I should be a bit happier but I guess I still have last week's big loss on my mind somewhat and I'm sure I'll feel better when that has been recovered.

Gotta be careful not to get into 'chase your losses' mode though.

Tonight's Betfair P&L:

That was quick

2011-05-25T18:20:00.000+01:00

Well, silver took a nice jump since yesterday - around $2 in total :-)

It was partly due to the likes of Goldman Sachs and others giving upbeat reports about commodities and I hit my get out point quick enough this afternoon. That was a nice easy trade it must be said!

I sold it in three stages netting a total profit of €171.71 but I've held on to a small portion of it just so I'm not kicking myself if it keeps going higher. The amount I'm holding is currently in profit of €57.75 - but I've set a stop loss at $36 so I'm certain to make something no-matter what happens. It's not always this easy of course but as the A-Team used to say, "I love it when a plan comes together".

I've a few hours to spare this evening so I'm going to see if I can get a chance to trade some racing - although I'm going to play it cautious tonight and only bet when I'm absolutely confident. No fecking around like the last day.

Today's silver trades:

Silver: As good as gold?

2011-05-24T21:06:00.007+01:00

Bought some silver today at $35.77 per ounce and it has proved useful so far with my trade now in profit to the tune of €164.

Fair enough - it’s not a hell of a lot of money but I’m glad to be showing a profit on silver as I want to diversify a little and not rely so much on gold and oil.

I’ve played around with pennies with silver before and generally made it pay so hopefully it will be a commodity that has been as good to me as gold has! The initial stake was only a couple of quid so with some leverage, it was good to get it up.

I’m slightly bullish on silver at the moment but not overly opinionated. I think it will go forward a little more but I’m happy to sell most of it if it hits around $37.50 and keep a small amount in stock case it rockets. It did hit a whopping $48 per ounce last month so who knows where it will go. After it hit those highs, it quickly collapsed and apparently, one investor sold at least 1000 tonnes during that fall. Serious stuff that and makes my couple of hundred euro look paltry – but hey, you gotta start somewhere and I’m still in learning mode on this metal.

If you ask me, people are getting a little worried about European debt again - hence the rise in gold and silver. As I say, I’m not certain it will continue, who knows what big story will be next to change everything again – but if I can ride the wave for even a dollar or two price move and bag a couple of ton for myself, I’ll be happy enough.

The missus won’t be too happy about this - but since I’ve been trading precious metals, I’ve become very, very reluctant to buy gold and silver (jewellery) in the shops as I know the real value behind the product!

The mark-ups are shocking considering the impurity of most of the stuff on sale. Yes, I know it has to be refined, shaped, shipped and the shopkeeper needs a cut – but still and all, the prices seem pretty damn high in comparison to an ounce of the pure product.

As for those gangsters that have set up shops around town buying gold for shocking prices off people that don’t know any better… .Well, all I’ll say is that it is daylight robbery off ordinary people that probably found themselves in a hole financially.

These ‘We Buy Gold’ shops seem to be everywhere so they must be doing business. I suppose there’s no real problem if a person wants to sell some jewellery they no longer need but I’ve heard stories of people selling engagement rings etc out of desperation during this recession. I find that a little sad.

I’ve also heard that they are after the stones in the rings too – and don’t always price them in when you sell. So be careful if you want to do business with them.

Then again, if there’s a market for what they do, I guess they are entitled to be there and trade their services, even if people are losing out in real terms. There might be a winner and a loser in these deals, but both parites agree as adults to the deal so there's nothing illegal about it.

Even though I don’t like these shops, I’m not one to pass judgement really as for every successful trade I make, someone has to lose money so am I any different? And do you think I give a rats arse about the loser(s) at the end my winning trades? Not really.

Why should I? Nobody gives a shit when I lose, to be perfectly honest (and that includes you readers!).

That’s the murky world of capitalism for ya...

Reasonable profit, but my discipline slipped.

2011-05-20T20:03:00.000+01:00

Had a fairly good day today with a profit of over €80. Don't think I'll bother with any more evening stuff as I want to spend a bit of time with my daughter before she goes off to bed.

I must admit that I was a bold boy on one race and let it go in-running rather than redding up for a loss. I was pissed off with myself for doing this as I had a big liability and even though I know it's wrong, there are times when you just become paralyzed and won't get out of your position. Sometimes it becomes ridiculous the positions we hold on to just hoping the price will come back.

As the potential loss was getting near 80 quid, I shook myself out of it and clicked the button to get out. Lucky for me, by the time the bet was fired in, the price had moved back in my direction and I only lost €27.28 on that race. What the fook was I thinking though? Sometimes I surprise myself at such recklessness.

Other than that, it was a reasonably OK day today and I used a mixture of strategies to trade. It wasn't the easiest somehow and I got the sense that there were a few feckers with very big banks manipulating the markets somewhat. Sometimes this works in your favour, other times it doesn't - but it's a bit annoying to see 'fake' big orders getting pushed in then pulled out, especially on the quieter Irish races.

While the monetary profit today was good, I'm not entirely satisfied with myself today - I was a bit too nonchalant and wasn't as strict as I should have been. In truth, I probably over-traded a good bit today just looking for some action as I won't get a chance to trade over the weekend much.

I got away with it today but deep down, I know I should respect my bank a bit more.

Hope I'm onto something

2011-05-18T21:18:00.000+01:00

I've been trying out my new strategy again and it's working quite well - I think I could be onto something. As mentioned before, it basically tries to recognise horses that are being backed or layed and then goes with the flow. So when the price moves in either direction by a certain percent, it them becomes a back or lay. It doesn't always work but it's alerted me to some big swings which usually make up for the small losses (I have a fairly tight stop loss).

The main problem was trying to keep an eye on all the prices and trying to work out how much they have moved by so I automated it in a spreadsheet today.

Basically, the spreadsheet links in with Betfair through Betting Assistant and the live prices are displayed in the spreadsheet. I've set the spreadsheet up to alert me to back or lay by turning blue or pink once the market has changed. I'm getting better with excel and this is proving very handy!

Productive weekend

2011-05-16T21:03:00.001+01:00

I wasn't trading over the weekend - I went away to Oslo with herself for the weekend. Had a great time although it's damn expensive over there! It worked out at €11 for a pint - thank God for the duty free on the way over. It's a lovely city though - very clean and I found the people there very nice.

Being away, I got plenty of time to think about trading and do some reading. I was thinking more about Friday's big loss: I don't actually feel that there's anything wrong with my strategies, having reflected on it, I still reckon it was 'just one of those days'.

Still though, I figured that it wouldn't hurt to have a few new strategies (I'm mainly using the same 3 or 4 strategies to place my trades) in the armoury. So I came up with a 'momentum' based strategy which roughly mimics a strategy given by Richard Farleigh in Taming The Lion.

I've adapted it for the sports markets but it work on the 'trend is your friend' principle. Without going into too much detail, once the market moves a certain % amount, it's time to buy or sell (or in my case, back or lay). It's fairly simple and aims to go with the flow - I've set it up with stops etc and the good news is that it worked well today and a profit of €44 was shown using this strategy. I only lost in one out of 14 markets and caught some lovely swings along the way. The stakes were not too big so this gives me some encouragement, although it's very early days so I ain't counting any chickens.

Still though, it's good to get time to reflect after a big loss and rethink some strategies and come up with new ideas. I think the break did me good.

I've two pictures below - one is today's p&l and the other is me in Oslo standing beside the famous 'The Scream' painting:

Oh dear...

2011-05-13T19:21:00.000+01:00

What an absolutely horrible day. I hadn't traded on Betfair in a while so I felt a little rusty but I'd thought I'd give a few markets a go regardless.

I started off by letting a race go in-running by accident and lost €275. I think I should have just stopped there as my mind wasn't on it but I managed to earn a couple of bob before I had to go out for a few hours.

I came home and turned on the computer to trade some evening stuff - bad idea. I just don't know what went wrong - I was all over the place and every trade I placed seemed to go wrong. I should have really quit as I wasn't thinking straight as a loss of 96, then 144, then 88 went in.

I changed tack and tried to trade a few short ones in the place market but that just went arseways aswell! There wasn't enough money to get out of some trades when the races were close to the off and that left me screwed!

All in all, a horrible day and I'm quitting for the evening before more damage is done. Can't quite put my finger on what went wrong but I just wasn't with it today. You have to take the bad with the good I suppose but today was particularly bad. Such is life.

Self praise

2011-05-11T20:33:00.000+01:00

My wife always tells me that 'self praise is no praise' but I'm pretty pleased with myself with my latest two gold trades.

I've often beat myself up on these pages when things go bad so sometimes it's important to pat oneself on the back for a job well done.

Don't get me wrong, I only made just under €60 in total, not a big amount - but I stuck to my plans and stops and it worked out.

I was tracking the price of gold today and moving my stop upwards as the price moved up. Generally, I was keeping the stop about $7 behind the market. When it hit $1522, I put the stop at $1514.90 and left it be as I had stuff to do.

The price came down and my order was matched - I briefly kicked myself as I had considered selling at $1522 - but you can never expect to catch the top of the market to be honest and as the price dropped down again to the $1500 mark, I realised that it was a very good trade after all.

When I first started trading, I'd be obsessed with catching the top or bottom of the market but this is folly of the highest order. Once you realise that there is money to be made in-between, you stop getting so worked up about it. You can't really expect to bet at the 'right' prices (the top and bottom) all the time - indeed, I remember reading a good quote from a trader who said he had made his fortune betting at the 'wrong' prices.

I'm no longer obsessed with catching the top and bottom and it's refreshing when you release yourself from it.

As I say, it's not a huge amount of money but it was one of those trades where I had a get out price, I had an opinion, I had a plan and I had a bit of bottle when the price went bad - so I'm quite pleased with it.

Speaking of fortunes, I'm going to need a small one this weekend as I'm off to Oslo with herself. We'll be leaving on Saturday morning - it's meant to be a great city but apparently, it's the most expensive city in the world! It's about ten euro for a pint so I'll definitely be stocking up in the duty free on the way over!

This week's closed trades:

Trailing stop

2011-05-10T21:31:00.002+01:00

I've decided to put a trailing stop on that gold trade - well, it's not an automaitc trailing stop, I'm more or less doing it manually as I'm checking the market quite often. At the moment, the trade is worth nearly €50 with the gold trading at $1515 so I've set the stop at $1509 which will ensure a reasonable return.

I know it's not a huge amount but pennies make pounds and pounds make scores, and it all adds up. I don't have a strong opinion on how gold will go over the next few days so I'm glad to just sit it out with the stop in place. Hopefully it goes up though!

I've recently moved some cash from my Betfair accounts to some non-sports trading accounts but I'm still a little nervous about this and will take it slowly.

Open trade on marketspreads:

Not so bad timing

2011-05-09T20:44:00.000+01:00

It's funny the difference a couple of days can make on the markets. The other day, I wondered if I'd got in at a bad time on gold as it lost a big amount on Thursday.

However, it recovered today and is back up around $1512 .

I said to the wife last night that I had a feeling that the markets would open positive on gold and I was happy about it - there was a fair bit going on over the weekend to push the prices up.

As mentioned, I had two open trades - I sold out on the first one, the $1503 bet. I saw the price hit $1508 or thereabouts and got out for a profit of 12 quid.

The second one, the one I bought for $1491 remains open and is currently in profit of 40 quid or so

I've set a stop loss around $1499 just to be sure I can't lose now. The higher it goes, the better now.

Fair enough, it's not an earth shattering amount of money but I'm still very pleased as on Thursday, those two trades were nearly €140 in the red - so it's a nice swing to see some profit on that now.

My open trade:

Bad timing?

2011-05-05T21:15:00.003+01:00

Well, I got involved with gold again when it dropped to €1503. I figured it might bounce off the $1500 mark but boy was I wrong! It collapsed through and I thought it would bottom out around $1490 so I bought some more.

Wrong again!

As I type this, it currently trades around $1470 - however, I’m not too concerned just yet.

While commodities in general had their biggest drop since 2009, I’m still happy enough with gold and the overall direction it is going and I’m not going to panic for the time being. Besides, I only bought a small amount – just 50c and 30c so at the moment, I’m around €135 in the red.

I’ll probably set a stop loss soon but I’m happy to hold out on this and I reckon we’ll be back up above $1500 once the panic selling stops and some other news story gives reason for people to buy.

Could be wrong though – watch this space!

Today’s trades, which are currently in the red:

Good weekend

2011-05-03T21:57:00.000+01:00

Haven’t posted for a while as I was away in Carlow at a cousin’s wedding this weekend so I wasn’t online much.

Well, what can one say about Frankel in the 2,000 Guineas on Saturday eh? Fantastic stuff! It normally bugs me when people call a horse a ‘cert’ in racing but I’ve been banging on about this one for quite some time and it was one of those occasions where he was still massive value, even though he was odds-on. I had a nice few ton on him (done it the old way with cash in the bookies) which paid for my hotel for the weekend. I had a brilliant time at the wedding, and to top it off, Dublin’s hurlers win the league – what more could a man ask for!

Didn’t get much sports trading done obviously but elsewhere, I went short on gold twice last week – once when it hit $1534 and again when it hit $1547. I’m actually still keen on gold long term but I just thought it was extending a little too wildly and predicted that people would take some profit. Then, all this craic with Osama Bin Laden kicks off and I was unsure how the markets would react (if they were even going to react to that event at all). Today, gold dropped a fair few points back down (I don’t think it was related though) and I got a little nervous and sold out. I could have got out for a profit at one stage but waited a bit too long and the price started recovering. Overall, I lost about a pony (€25) on the trade but I was glad to get out without too much damage as it’s all a little uncertain at the moment, and to be honest, I haven’t been keeping on top of the news wires etc with Easter holidays and bank holidays and what not.

I’ve been waiting to get back in on gold for some time and being honest with myself, I’ve missed some cracking opportunities trying to wait for the ‘right’ moment. In some ways, there never really is a ‘right’ price. There’s just prices!
But that said, my records show that gold has been (by far) my best commodity for trading so it’s something I want to keep on top of and it’s something I enjoy holding.

Not sure what price I’d like to get in at again, I’m going to wait for a boring non-news week sometime and sit down and give it more thought and study and see where I’m going with it.

On the racing front, we’ve Punchestown this week and it’s normally something I spend a few days at. This year however, I’m a bit tied up with work and don’t want to take any more time off. I’ve pretty much taken all of August off so I can go to Canada with the family then spend a week in Gran Canaria with some mates too – so I’ll have to clock in some hours in the 9-5 as it will be an expensive couple of weeks! Hopefully, I’ll get to watch some of Punchestown on the box – it feels weird not being there and there’s some cracking races on the cards. I don't really have any real strong opinions on it as I haven't really spend much time studying the cards - I'll just watch as much of it as I can and make some notes at the end - don't think I'll do much betting though.

Turning over your money

2011-04-26T20:45:00.000+01:00

I've often mentioned how important it is to turn as much money as possible over through Betfair - although when I say that, I mean try do as many quality trades as possible, rather than trading for the sake of it.

Sometimes, the amount one can turnover is quite astonishing - even with a small bank. Peter Webb sums it all up well in a good post on his blog. This is well worth a read:

http://www.betangel.com/blog_wp/2011/04/24/gambling-millions/

Give me five minutes with somebody and I can teach you how to put through enormous sums through a market at relatively little risk, you wont make or lose much, but you will be able to say that you gambled millions that day, an impressive feat; or is it?
I have often been misquoted, especially when it comes to numbers. But one thing that is fairly certain in the modern betting age, is that racking up bets in the millions is actually quite an achievable feat, even for a novice. Sometimes this has been put up as a negative, that people are using exchanges for ‘serious’ activity. But the reality couldn’t be more stark, lets have a look at the real deal behind the numbers.
Lots of products exist out there now for putting bets on while you are busy doing something else. We have two very useful tools in Bet Angel, Guardian, the multi market, auto switching tool and Excel spreadsheet integration. Using these two tools you can set up Bet Angel to places bets in your absense and it will happily chug away to your exacting criteria all day and night.
One of the huge draws to betting exchanges is the small overound on the book. In the bad old days bookmakers could print money by maintaining a super high over round. This ensured even given a bad run that they would end ahead. On exchanges the book is very very close to break even and with each year that passes it gets even closer. The hurdle to profitability is actually very small now. To jump that hurdle and make it worth while you need to do things.
First, you need an edge, even a very small one will do nowadays. Your edge could be timing, selection based, system based, logic, psychology; there are many. For example, a strong winning run in a sports events leads gamblers to often assume that the chance of something happening is more likely. Value is often created at this exact point for the opposing reason. Your edge can be quite small now and still be profitable thanks to exchanges. Once you have found your edge you need to exploit it with money, but the contradiction on exchanges is that while the hurdle is small, the market is very efficient and therefore any edge is also very, very small.
So the answer is to put lots of money through the markets to magnify any edge you have. Tomorrow, a public holiday in the UK, we have ten race meetings and total over 60 horse races. If you put through a £100 bet on each race you would place in total £6000 in just one day! Of course you only need a tiny bank to do this as each race starts and finishes quickly (excluding races that clash). Increase this amount to £1000 and you would put through £60k in one day. Is this realistic?
This is where betting on the volatility of odds really comes into its own. If you don’t want to risk £1000 in one shot you can break it up into chunks of say £100 or ten lots to reach your £1000 in bets. If we took the low assumption of just 10,000 races a year on average, your £1000 per race would scale up to the astonishing sum of £10m a year in gambles. Even a tiny, tiny edge on £10m can make things a worthwhile endeavour, all this with a tiny bank. On the flip side though, I should point out that if you don’t have an edge then your bank will disappear in double quick time as that negative edge multiples on the downside. When people talk about an edge, the image that springs to my mind is a cliff edge. To make money in the long term in any market you need to know where the edge is without falling off it!
But, in summary, even using small amounts you can effectively leverage that into what seems fairly astonishing sums just by re-using it as often as you can. This allows you to earn good money even with a tiny edge.

Still alive

2011-04-20T20:43:00.000+01:00

Haven’t updated in a while so I just thought I’d pop on and say hi.

I’ve been trying to spend a bit more time with my family in the evenings and weekends hence the lack of posting recently. But things are good generally although I’m not getting as much trading done as I’d like to.

I’ve been a bit busy with a few things – it was the wife’s 30^th birthday at the weekend – we had a great party with a DJ and all that lark - then I went to a Christening on Sunday so I wasn’t doing much in the way of punting.

This weekend, I’m thinking of bringing my daughter into the league final (Gaelic Football). She’s six and a half and it would be her first ever Dublin match. On the Easter Monday, we have the Irish Grand National at Fairyhouse and I’m half thinking of going to that too. I got free tickets from my local Ladbrokes shop which was grand – although I must admit, I went a few years ago and I wasn’t cracked about it. It was hard to get a drink and a bet on with the crowds and we ended up watching the big race on the screen. Although that was in the mad so-called Celtic Tiger days so I’d imagine the crowd might not be as big as it was in 2006. I’ll have a think about it, but I’d like to give it another try.

Regarding trading, gold has finally gone past $1,500 today. I had bought a small amount a few days ago at $1492 when the whole question of the USA not being able to pay its debts was raised. I sold at $1498 as I figured people would take their profits when the price hovered around $1500 and it might bounce back down. But it broke through the barrier all the same and pushed up for a few points. How high will it go? It’s hard to say really – I didn’t think it would hit $1500 quite so quickly but it’s still staying strong. I think I’ll wait a couple of weeks before getting involved again just to see if it settles or whether this is another big breakout.

Meself and herself at her 30th:

Grand National

2011-04-09T11:48:00.001+01:00

I haven't backed a National winner since 1990 (Mr Frisk) so I wouldn't be going mad with stakes today! However, it's a fantastic occasion and I'm looking forward to picking some horses out of the paper with my six-year-old daughter. Great stuff!

Anyway, here's my Indo column for today:

http://www.independent.ie/sport/horse-racing/silver-by-nature-worth-shot-in-dark-2614782.html

Eleven grand - but not enough

2011-04-05T22:21:00.003+01:00

Sold my Brent Crude Oil (May delivery) for the Delta Index competition today which netted me over €11,000 - however, because I took a major hit on Platinum some weeks ago, it only brings me back to the 20K mark so it won't be near enough to climb the competition leaderboard. Still, I'm pretty happy to have made a good recovery and as always, it's been a good learning experience.

In my other live accounts, I sold my gold a while back but I see it hit another all-time high today. I'm waiting to get back in on gold (probably should have already) as I still think it's one for long term growth despite the all-time highs it's hitting. When you consider inflation, it's not really all that high and with no real signs of the worldwide economies in the Western world settling down, I think it will remain a 'safe haven' for investors, for another while yet anyway.

I was waiting until it dropped to around $1400 before buying but perhaps I'll have to look at that again. Wonder will it hit $1500 before long?

Delta Index Oil trade:

A handy €57

2011-04-01T21:45:00.000+01:00

I was writing for tomorrow's newspaper and also doing a few bits and bobs for Betfair so I didn't get to trade all of today's races. However, I did get 11 done and made €56.96 which is grand. Wasn't going mad with my stakes as I couldn't really give it my absolute attention but I still managed a clean sweep which is always a bonus.

Getting out of gold

2011-04-01T10:51:00.000+01:00

Gold has been up and down lately – I bought a tiny amount a few days ago at $1434.40 (just 20cent worth) but I was never quite happy for some reason and a few hours later, it was €30 in the red. But I held out for a recovery which happened yesterday and I sold at $1438.40. Total profit: A whopping €8!!

Did you ever buy something and then regret it? That’s how I felt and I should have got out earlier although at least no damage is done to the account. I’m still keen on Gold long term though and will buy again soon when the price drops a little.

On the bank shares, it has been quite interesting in the early trading: http://www.rte.ie/news/2011/0401/banks.html

Irish Life and Permanent were down nearly 70pc at one stage which is huge. Bank of Ireland seem to be doing OK and have recovered. At the time of writing, they can be bought at 30 cent – and although that still seems tiny compared to what they once were, it’s a big leap from 22 cent the other day.

Latest Gold Trade:

Bank shares

2011-03-30T22:51:00.001+01:00

Had an interesting discussion with the missus the other night about buying/selling bank shares - and that discussion has become more interesting with today's events.

The missus was asking how low could Bank of Ireland shares go and if they are worth a punt. At the moment, they are around 22 cent but they have been lower. It's my own opinion that they are too risky to buy as the state may well step in further and that could render them pretty useless.

I suggested that Permanent TSB might be worth short selling as the shit will hit the fan when people start defaulting on their mortgages - I should have bloody took my own advice (!) as low and behold, they drop 45% yesterday in anticipation of Thursday's 'stress tests' results on the banks.

We didn't buy or sell in the end as I reckon it's best to wait until after the reports are published but I read tonight that Permanent TSB, Bank of Ireland and Allied Irish Bank shares have all been suspended on the Irish stock exchange. Obviously, they want to stop people trading on inside info (or rumours) but it will be interesting to see where it all goes when the shares go back on the market.

Bank of Ireland monthly chart:

Something new

2011-03-26T13:52:00.001Z

Excluding the very odd US race, I haven't really traded non UK or Irish races much but I'm having a play around with Meydan (Dubai) today since it's a big meeting. Have to say, I'm pleasantly surprised and found it easy to trade.

In the screenshot for example, I turned over 1K on both the back and lay sides in about four trades on JJ The Jet Plane - around 3 mins before the off. There was plenty of activity and is was handy enough to trade. Not going to go to town with my stakes but it's interesting to try something new.

Back to normality

2011-03-20T20:47:00.000Z

It's been a long week!

Well, Cheltenham has come and gone – it was an extremely busy week for me as I had a lot of writing on but it was great to be able to pull in a nice few quid from newspapers etc as I didn’t make money from punting.

I’ve quite a few things coming up that are going to cost a few quid – the missus’ 30^th, a trip to Oslo and also a cousin’s wedding so Cheltenham is a big week of the year for those of us involved with racing and it’s a good chance to earn some decent bread.

Punting wise, day one and two were horrendous and I was well down but a decent bet on Big Buck’s on day three got me out of a hole and a couple of wins on Friday at Cheltenham and elsewhere saw me get out alive – just about.

I didn’t really get to trade that much but I sometimes find the really big meetings tricky in some ways as your money is always at the end of a big queue. It’s good to see the liquidity in the markets obviously but there also comes a point where it gets difficult to get matched outside of the available prices.

I read on Peter Webb’s blog that Betdaq was providing some nice opportunities so I’ll have to keep an eye on that over the summer for the likes of Royal Ascot etc.

The flat racing returned today at the Curragh and this is something I welcome. It may not be as exciting for some people but my own betting records show that I’m better at backing on the flat so I’m looking forward to the upcoming season.

Didn’t get out running much this week with the Festival so I went for a jog today. Have to say, it felt great as the sun was shining. It’s great to see some good weather and it was lovely to go running in the sun for a change. I was out a bit socialising over the weekend too so it’s good to sweat some of that out of the system!

I see that Leopardstown is on next week - I haven’t been out racing in quite a while so I think I’ll try my best to get up. My daughter is six and a half now and often asks me to bring her so I may just see how she likes it. She went up before when she was four but I don’t think she remembers. There’s a trials day on so there’s one or two reasonable races on the card.

It’s been a long but productive week and I’m looking forward to chilling out tonight and just sitting back and reading the Sunday papers.

Phew!

2011-03-17T17:06:00.002Z

For the second year running, Big Buck's saved my bacon at the Cheltenham Festival. I had my biggest bet of the Festival on him and if he had lost, it would have been absolute curtains for me as I've had a torrid time and plenty of bad luck. Was unlucky with Wishful Thinking today in the first, he hit 1/3 in running but got beat. But sin é. I had hoped to get some trading done during the day but I got caught up with writing work.

Happy St Patrick's Day to one and all.

Tomorrow's race-by-race guide for the Indo:

RACE-BY-RACE GUIDE
1.30
The JCB Triumph Hurdle is open to four-year-old novices only so it can be a bit of a scrum at the start as the inexperienced horses jostle for position. Sam Winner can be forgiven for his odds-on defeat at Chepstow last time because of the ground, and 6/1 looks big.
2.05
Alarazi will pick up a £75,000 bonus from Paddy Power if he wins any race at Cheltenham following victory in the Imperial Cup on Saturday. He ran well at this course before, and looks well treated under a 5lb penalty.
2.40
Did you know that Albert Bartlett is Britain's leading grower and packer of potatoes? I didn’t either until I looked him up on the Interweb! Anyhow, the race they sponsor is an exhausting test for staying hurdlers and it takes a tough sort to win. Bobs Worth has been powering home over shorter distances and should appreciate the step up to three miles.
3.20
The last time a horse over the age of ten won the Gold Cup, Peter Sarstedt was singing “Where do you go to my lovely” in the charts. Yes, it’s was 1969 when What A Myth won at the age of twelve but Denman may be able to take it this year at the grand old age of eleven. He deserves huge credit for managing third place in the Hennessy considering he was giving some two stone two the field. It’s his last crack at this and 6/1 is a great each-way price.
4.0
Last year’s winner Baby Run is the one to beat. He’s a fine jumper and seems to be improving with age. Enda Bolger’s On The Fringe will give him the most to worry about.
4.40
Another one of the newer races, the first two runnings have gone to outsiders. Only 14lbs cover the field and this looks extremely tricky for punters. My money will stay safe in the wallet.
5.15
It may be the ‘great get-out stakes’ but the last race of the Festival is not one for heavy punting. Nicky Henderson’s Anquetta is a smart, lightly raced sort and will be suited by the stiff two-mile distance.

When's the flat season begin!! ?

2011-03-16T22:28:00.001Z

Money down the drain

Another losing day for me at Cheltenham - it's been pretty tough going on the bank! I hope Big Buck's and Poquelin can do the business on Paddy's Day as they are my biggest bets thus far.

At least it was a good day for the Irish but I can help longing a little for the flat, as I find it much better for punting. I'm probably only saying that because I'm losing though and a good day tomorrow will have me loving Cheltenham again. Here's my Irish Independent race guide for Thursday...

RACE-BY-RACE GUIDE

1.30

The Jewson Novices’ Chase is new race for the festival and is not to be confused with the old Jewson Novices' Handicap Chase. Wishful Thinking is a useful sort that is on the up; and his previous course experience should prove useful.

2.05

A horrible race for backers where the favourite rarely performs. Unless you are into laying favourites on the exchanges, this contest should be avoided.

2.40
It’s hard to get away from Paul Nicholls’ Poquelin. He found plenty when it mattered in the Vote A. P. Gold Cup at this course in December and looks the one to beat.

3.20

Will this end up as a match between Big Buck’s and Grands Crus? It’s a mouth-watering prospect as both horses are in cracking form and are the best in their division. It could be tight but Big Buck’s should have a couple of pounds in hand… for now!

4.0

A big field handicap, and not a race for heavy punting. Aigle D´Or may still have more to come before the handicapper catches up.

4.40

Any market moves for Ferdy Murphy’s Galant Nuit would be interesting but if you’re in the red by this stage of the day, keep your money for tomorrow as it’s definitely not a race for chasing losses.

Sigh...

2011-03-15T20:40:00.001Z

Feeling tired and deflated after today. Cheltenham was very tough and I lost quite a bit of money. I've a load to do this evening too so I'll probably be up until the small hours. Not only that, Oil and Gold took a dive today and while I haven't traded out yet, at the moment my holdings are in the red to the tune of around €200.

So I'm feeling pretty glum tonight :-(

You've got to take the good days with the bad I guess and here's hoping for some better luck on Wednesday.

My race-by-race guide for the Irish Independent:

1.30
An amateur jockeys race which has turned into a bookmakers’ benefit fund over the years. If a gun were put to the head, Charles Byrnes’ Alpha Beat would get the nod but favourites have a poor record in this and it’s a race best watched.
2.05
Some good animals have come out of this over the years and the list of previous winners include Danoli, Istabraq and Hardy Eustace. Even in poor ground, Jessica Harrington’s Oscars Well has a great turn of foot and has the ability to go one better than the Willie Mullins trained So Young.
2.40
The formbook says Time For Rupert will win this with a little bit in hand but the lack of a run this year is of some concern. Aiteen Thirtythree, Jessies Dream, Wymott and Mikael D'haguenet can’t be scratched for the list either so it might be best to sit this one out.
3.20
Master Minded make hard work of the Victor Chandler Chase but Tony McCoy admitted afterward that he gave him a poor ride. Bib Zeb will probably go off as favourite but he’s been taking on the same horses in small fields in Ireland so I’m not convinced we’ve learned anything new. If both horses run to form, Master Minded should just about edge it.
4.0
Some big gambles have been ruined by outsiders in this race over the years so be careful if following the money. It’s hard to find the winner in such a big field but Howard Johnson’s Arcalis is a reliable enough sort and could be worth a few pence each-way around 16/1.
4.40
A race for four-year-old novices only. The word on the street is that Venetia Williams has been preparing Tenor Nivernais for this all season and at 6/1, he can be taken each-way.
5.15
The Irish have a great record in the bumper winning 14 for the last 18 renewals; although Cue Card was a surprise winner for Colin Tizzard at 40/1 last year. I’ve a feeling the prizemoney will stay in Britain again this year and based on his Newbury form, the progressive Ericht (Nicky Henderson) is worth a punt around 6/1.

The wait is over

2011-03-14T21:13:00.000Z

Well, it's that time of the year again - can't believe it's been a year already. Really looking forward to the racing this week - I'll have an article in the Indo each day which keeps me well busy. Not going mad on day one but here's my quick newspaper summary of tomorrow's racing:

RACE-BY-RACE GUIDE

1.30
Cue Card is the one to beat but he’s just too short at 7/4. Paddy Power have a money-back offer if he wins so with that safety net in mind, I’m going dutch (back both) Zaidpour and Spirit Son at an overall price of 12/5.
2.05
Medermit has a good record at Cheltenham and although most of those races were over sticks, he can jump well at a fast pace which is an essential skill for the Irish Independent Arkle Chase. This is Alan King’s best hope of a winner at the Festival and is definitely the one to beat at 11/4.
2.40
The JP McManus owned Sunnyhillboy (6/1) has been laid out for this race and slots in nicely in the weights off 139. Adams Island (16/1) has place claims now back at his favoured distance.
3.20
Hurricane Fly is hugely exciting in Ireland but will he handle Cheltenham? Menorah has an obvious chance too but Khyber Kim has the form in the book and could be the each-way bet of the day at 10/1.
4.00
This used to be the Enda Bolger benefit race but the form of old stalwarts Garde Champetre and L’Ami has been up and down of late and it may be time to look elsewhere. Oscar Bay is the absolute outsider of the field but he’s a tough old sort and could be worth a couple of pennies in the place market on the machine.
4.40
Willie Mullins’ Quevega is considered the banker of the festival for many; but she’s now gone odds-on and it’s not worth the risk. Banjaxed Girl is a fluent jumper and could spring a surprise at 16/1.
5.15
Not a race for heavy punting, but David Pipe’s Swing Bill is of interest at a double figure price. A quick return to racing after ten days is not ideal but he’s held in high regard at the yard and is in with an outside chance.

Betfair down / Skint

2011-03-12T15:01:00.000Z

The Betfair site seems to be up and down (again) today so I don't want to risk trading in case it crashes while I'm exposed. It's getting quite annoying at this stage. You can expect outages now and again, but it seems to be getting worse. I've been stung before when the site went down mid-trade and I done a load of dough so it's just not worth the risk.

On a positive note, I tipped a 10/1 winner for the Irish Independent today which was great, just before Cheltenham. I've also put up The Betchworth Kid e/w for the Imperial Cup which is off in a few mins so fingers crossed.
Going to take it easy for the rest of the day then and have a beer and watch Wales v Ireland in the rugby. Then it's off into town tonight for a mates 30th so a good day overall, despite Betfair being down.

Tricky day

2011-03-11T19:48:00.002Z

Felt quite tired today and I think that manifested itself in my trading. It was pretty rough going for some reason and I just couldn't get 'into the zone' so to speak. A small profit was made but nothing to write home about. Just one of those days I guess.

But looking at the events in Japan puts things into perspective and I'm not going to start complaining about a tricky day of trading - it's unreal watching cars being swept along like toys and once again, I feel so lucky to live in a country like Ireland where we don't really get extreme weather.

I mentioned yesterday that I was going to buy some platinum with Delta Index as it can be quite volatile and I was looking for a swing. Well, that swing came - in the wrong direction! It's recovered somewhat but I'm still down about one large on the trade so far. I'm holding out for a recovery however so we'll see how it goes.

On a positive note, some gold I bought with Delta Index today is currently in profit of about €1000 so I'm pretty pleased with that. No-where near the prize positions however.

But I bought gold in my actual marketspreads account so I'm pretty pleased.

Gold is by far my favourite commodity and I've rarely made a bad trade on it so it's probably something I should concentrate on more.

Delta Index Open Positions:

Platinum

2011-03-09T22:06:00.000Z

Bought some platinum with Delta Index today - hope to get a big swing on it as it can be quite volatile at times.

I traded this commodity before and it can be a bit of a crazy ride at times. The problem with trading competitions is that you kinda have to be wreckless if you want to be in with a chance of winning. There's no point in turning your 20K into 25K as there's bound to be someone who took a punt and trebled or quadrupled their bank or whatever. In reality, earning 5K would be great but it wouldn't win you the competition so you kinda have to stake heavy and hope for the best.

Had a great day on the football markets with Spurs qualifying although I can't really claim credit for that. A friend of mine is good on football so we pool some resources together along with another guy who is good on horses. We'll split the money in the account if it ends up successful at the end of the year but so far we are just keeping the head above water. A nice boost of around €130 each today though.

Platinum weekly chart:

Delta Index

2011-03-08T12:18:00.001Z

I'm always on the lookout for free competitions and I spotted an ad for one for Delta Index in the Business section of the Sunday Indo.

I'm sure there will be plenty of competition but I've signed up anyway for the craic (and also to learn). The prize is a trip to Wall Street which would be nice!

It's pretty easy to sign up and start trading thankfully and you basically do the best you can with €20,000.

Going to stick with commodities for the moment but may diversify later on.