Monday, April 30, 2012
Sunday, April 29, 2012
Got my comeuppance
Done some trading yesterday and it wasn't going so well. Perhaps my mind wasn't on the job following some bad results or deep down I was doing some loss chasing - but whatever the reason, I committed a cardinal sin and let one of my trades go in-running with a big liability.
I'm raging with myself for doing it. It just goes to show that no matter how experienced you are, you are still susceptible to moments of madness.
Unless you have a clear strategy (like my inplay trades), going in-running is out and out gambling and I know deep down that it's Russian roulette. Well the bullet was in my chamber yesterday and my account is now three and a half ton lighter. €361.05 to be exact:
Really pissed off with myself as I've been having a good few months and this was a stupid thing to do. That's what happens when you play games and I have to take it like a man I guess!
Just two bets for the inplay trading strategy for today. Best of luck with your betting/trading:
I'm raging with myself for doing it. It just goes to show that no matter how experienced you are, you are still susceptible to moments of madness.
Unless you have a clear strategy (like my inplay trades), going in-running is out and out gambling and I know deep down that it's Russian roulette. Well the bullet was in my chamber yesterday and my account is now three and a half ton lighter. €361.05 to be exact:
Really pissed off with myself as I've been having a good few months and this was a stupid thing to do. That's what happens when you play games and I have to take it like a man I guess!
Just two bets for the inplay trading strategy for today. Best of luck with your betting/trading:
Saturday, April 28, 2012
Fighting back?
I haven't mentioned the form study bets in a while but I'm still getting up early each morning and going through the form and trying to pick some good bets. At one point, it was around 30pts ahead and had a fantastic start. Then it all went arseways and dropped down to about 4pts profit. It's picked up again and I'm now around 15pts profit (see chart). Not where I thought I'd be after around 250 bets but that's the way the cookie crumbles. At least it's not in the red I suppose and I'm looking forward to seeing how I perform when the flat season kicks in proper .
Two from two on the inplay trades yesterday so I'm happy with that. I've a few for today, pictured below the chart.
Best of luck with your betting/trading today.
Two from two on the inplay trades yesterday so I'm happy with that. I've a few for today, pictured below the chart.
Best of luck with your betting/trading today.
Friday, April 27, 2012
Friday
Rushing out to bring my daughter to school so no time for a write up. Two inplay trades for today:
Thursday, April 26, 2012
Interesting
I've been going through my records on the inplay trades and one thing I've noticed is that horses priced above 10/1 tend to be more successful for my strategy than those priced under 10/1.
Regular readers will know that I try to back certain horses at Betfair SP then lay them off at 50pc of their price in-running. Have a look at the below charts - the first shows how the strategy performs to a €10 stake on my horses priced below 11.0 and the second shows how my strategy performs on horses priced above 11.0:
The horses priced under 10.0 rise to €100 and comes crashing back down. The horses above 11.0 are a good deal steadier and it's those that have made me my profit.
Should I just stick with horses above 11.0 then? I'm not sure to be honest- there's not a huge amount of data to go on.
I'm aware that I could be 'backfitting' this too. Isn't it funny how we always look at our data looking for a fix during a bad run? During the good times, we always think "If it's not broke, don't fix it". Perhaps a better way would be to do a review after a set number of weeks or number of bets, rather than just when things are going arseways.
I don't like changing things without a reason so if I'm to come up with a theory as to why the shorter priced horses perform worst, it is this:
Horses at the shorter end of the market are analysed more - therefore, their running style is more likely to be priced into the odds already. With big priced horses, they don't get as much attention or analysis. Therefore, when they start to perform well mid race, it's often a surprise and in-running punters may get a bit over-excited.
I dunno, it's just a theory. As I say, not a lot of data to go on and I'm conscious of how punters often tinker with things during a poor run in haste. I'll keep plugging away as I am for now and perhaps take a look at this again.
Unfortunately, Punchestown is getting messed up because of the weather. It's a shame really as it's a meeting I love. Looking forward to today's Quevega vs Voler battle - I think the former may come out on top but both are top animals. Could be a good one.
Anyway, here's today's inplay trades:
Regular readers will know that I try to back certain horses at Betfair SP then lay them off at 50pc of their price in-running. Have a look at the below charts - the first shows how the strategy performs to a €10 stake on my horses priced below 11.0 and the second shows how my strategy performs on horses priced above 11.0:
The horses priced under 10.0 rise to €100 and comes crashing back down. The horses above 11.0 are a good deal steadier and it's those that have made me my profit.
Should I just stick with horses above 11.0 then? I'm not sure to be honest- there's not a huge amount of data to go on.
I'm aware that I could be 'backfitting' this too. Isn't it funny how we always look at our data looking for a fix during a bad run? During the good times, we always think "If it's not broke, don't fix it". Perhaps a better way would be to do a review after a set number of weeks or number of bets, rather than just when things are going arseways.
I don't like changing things without a reason so if I'm to come up with a theory as to why the shorter priced horses perform worst, it is this:
Horses at the shorter end of the market are analysed more - therefore, their running style is more likely to be priced into the odds already. With big priced horses, they don't get as much attention or analysis. Therefore, when they start to perform well mid race, it's often a surprise and in-running punters may get a bit over-excited.
I dunno, it's just a theory. As I say, not a lot of data to go on and I'm conscious of how punters often tinker with things during a poor run in haste. I'll keep plugging away as I am for now and perhaps take a look at this again.
Unfortunately, Punchestown is getting messed up because of the weather. It's a shame really as it's a meeting I love. Looking forward to today's Quevega vs Voler battle - I think the former may come out on top but both are top animals. Could be a good one.
Anyway, here's today's inplay trades:
Wednesday, April 25, 2012
Wednesday's in-running trades
Tuesday, April 24, 2012
Punchestown festival 2012, betting in-running
Normally, I take a week off for Punchestown and go down for a few days but for the first time in years, I won't be able to as I've too much on. I'm a bit behind writing the book so I have to keep plugging away at that and I've a rake of other stuff on this week. Hopefully, I'll be able to watch most of it on the box.
Don't really have any strong fancies for today other than Sir Des Champs but at 1/4, I wouldn't win any awards for originality there!
The in-running trades had a break-even day yesterday and still hovers around the €280 mark. As you can see from the chart, it's certainly going well but I have this stupid niggling feeling where I'm not happy until it's back over the €300 mark. I know this is all in the mind and a couple of points here and there don't really matter but it's one of those psychological things that become hard to ignore.
It's gas, because at the start of the month, 1st April, I was at €197 and had you offered me a 42% increase in the size of the bank by the 24th April I'd have bit your hand off. So I know I should be very happy with €280 but the fact that the bank was above €300 in the past tempers that joy somewhat. In an ideal world, the bank would be always hitting new highs but losing periods are inevitable, although knowing this doesn't make it easier.
It's a strange old thing the human brain eh? Actually on that note, I'm thinking of doing an evening course in psychology in Trinity later this year. I done some psychology and also some sociology as part of my degree in UCD and loved it. They were only short courses but it sparked an interest. When it comes to trading/betting, I'm realising that psychology is far more important than any other factor
Anyway, here's the chart showing progress and below is Tuesday's inplay trades:
Don't really have any strong fancies for today other than Sir Des Champs but at 1/4, I wouldn't win any awards for originality there!
The in-running trades had a break-even day yesterday and still hovers around the €280 mark. As you can see from the chart, it's certainly going well but I have this stupid niggling feeling where I'm not happy until it's back over the €300 mark. I know this is all in the mind and a couple of points here and there don't really matter but it's one of those psychological things that become hard to ignore.
It's gas, because at the start of the month, 1st April, I was at €197 and had you offered me a 42% increase in the size of the bank by the 24th April I'd have bit your hand off. So I know I should be very happy with €280 but the fact that the bank was above €300 in the past tempers that joy somewhat. In an ideal world, the bank would be always hitting new highs but losing periods are inevitable, although knowing this doesn't make it easier.
It's a strange old thing the human brain eh? Actually on that note, I'm thinking of doing an evening course in psychology in Trinity later this year. I done some psychology and also some sociology as part of my degree in UCD and loved it. They were only short courses but it sparked an interest. When it comes to trading/betting, I'm realising that psychology is far more important than any other factor
Anyway, here's the chart showing progress and below is Tuesday's inplay trades:
Monday, April 23, 2012
Two for today
A quiet enough day today on the inplay trades with just two selections. Back down to around two/three points off the all-time high. I'm hitting these with €25 from today so a nice good run would be handy. Hoping to get a few hundred for a new suit for my daughter's first Communion in May so it would be great if I can get this strategy to pay for it!
I had a good look through my data last night and it seems that 50pc is actually a good price to lay in-running and other percentages proved less reliable and less profitable. Might have a look at race type etc later too just to see if anything comes up. Going to spend a few hours on the book today too.
With regard to the financial trading, MarketSpreads haven't updated their position yet - their last tweet was on 12th April so we wait and see. I'm just keeping an eye on the markets but not actually trading them right now. A bit more information for customers wouldn't kill them.
Today's inplay trades:
Just saw Cathy Gannon's broken jaw picture on Twitter - ouch!
Gannon is a fellow Dubliner and is quite tough - she used to have horses around the housing estates in Dublin before going to Oxx (I think) and then on to England. I've said it before and I'll say it again, those overpaid Premiership wimps should take a look at what some of the jockeys go through. They ought to be ashamed of themselves for rolling around on the ground following the slightest touch.
http://twitter.com/#!/cathygannon353/status/193646519591763968/photo/1
That said, one cant help being a bit excited about the Premier League following Man Utd's mishap yesterday. I still think they'll win it but at least it makes it more enjoyable to watch for the neutral and the big showdown match should be well worth watching.
Best of luck with your betting/trading today.
I had a good look through my data last night and it seems that 50pc is actually a good price to lay in-running and other percentages proved less reliable and less profitable. Might have a look at race type etc later too just to see if anything comes up. Going to spend a few hours on the book today too.
With regard to the financial trading, MarketSpreads haven't updated their position yet - their last tweet was on 12th April so we wait and see. I'm just keeping an eye on the markets but not actually trading them right now. A bit more information for customers wouldn't kill them.
Today's inplay trades:
Just saw Cathy Gannon's broken jaw picture on Twitter - ouch!
Gannon is a fellow Dubliner and is quite tough - she used to have horses around the housing estates in Dublin before going to Oxx (I think) and then on to England. I've said it before and I'll say it again, those overpaid Premiership wimps should take a look at what some of the jockeys go through. They ought to be ashamed of themselves for rolling around on the ground following the slightest touch.
http://twitter.com/#!/cathygannon353/status/193646519591763968/photo/1
That said, one cant help being a bit excited about the Premier League following Man Utd's mishap yesterday. I still think they'll win it but at least it makes it more enjoyable to watch for the neutral and the big showdown match should be well worth watching.
Best of luck with your betting/trading today.
Sunday, April 22, 2012
Past €300, writing my book
Got past €300 to a €10 stake on the inplay trades after yesterday. This is a great landmark although I'm hoping there won't be choppy waters ahead with the season changeover from the jumps to the flat etc.
At the moment, I'm backing these at Betfair SP then laying off at 50pc of the price in-running but after almost 300 bets, my data shows that I'd probably be better off laying them at a drop of 60pc in-running and take a bit of extra profit from the short price and also some profit from the ones that actually go on to win. I'm going to have a good look at my data this evening and see what comes up. That's the good thing about recording stuff about your betting - most people don't do that and keep on doing what they are doing. Then they wonder why they keep getting the same results. With data though, you have to be careful not to 'backfit' it and it's easy to make patterns out of nothing and be misled.
With regard to the book I'm writing about trading, I'm hoping to kick on a bit this weekend and get another couple of chapters completed. I've about a third of it done so far. As mentioned, a couple of publishers have expressed an interest and there are not many book out there about trading on the exchanges. In fact, I can only think of one, Lay back and think of winning, and that's quite old now. Hopefully there will be a market for the book when it's released. While I've seen my name in print many times in newspapers, it would feel great to see it published on a book - that's the librarian in me coming out I suppose!
Sunday is a fairly busy day with as many as nine trades (posted below the chart).
Here's the stats so far:
No. of trades: 269
Successful trades: 135 (50.2pc)
Losing trades: 98 (36.4pc)
Level trades (no win or loss): 36 (13.4pc)
Longest sequence of winning trades: 5
Longest sequence of losing trades: 5
Average SP: 24.9
Bank all-time high: €304.50
Bank all-time low: -€55.00
Current bank: €302.50
Return on investment: 11.25pc
At the moment, I'm backing these at Betfair SP then laying off at 50pc of the price in-running but after almost 300 bets, my data shows that I'd probably be better off laying them at a drop of 60pc in-running and take a bit of extra profit from the short price and also some profit from the ones that actually go on to win. I'm going to have a good look at my data this evening and see what comes up. That's the good thing about recording stuff about your betting - most people don't do that and keep on doing what they are doing. Then they wonder why they keep getting the same results. With data though, you have to be careful not to 'backfit' it and it's easy to make patterns out of nothing and be misled.
With regard to the book I'm writing about trading, I'm hoping to kick on a bit this weekend and get another couple of chapters completed. I've about a third of it done so far. As mentioned, a couple of publishers have expressed an interest and there are not many book out there about trading on the exchanges. In fact, I can only think of one, Lay back and think of winning, and that's quite old now. Hopefully there will be a market for the book when it's released. While I've seen my name in print many times in newspapers, it would feel great to see it published on a book - that's the librarian in me coming out I suppose!
Sunday is a fairly busy day with as many as nine trades (posted below the chart).
Here's the stats so far:
No. of trades: 269
Successful trades: 135 (50.2pc)
Losing trades: 98 (36.4pc)
Level trades (no win or loss): 36 (13.4pc)
Longest sequence of winning trades: 5
Longest sequence of losing trades: 5
Average SP: 24.9
Bank all-time high: €304.50
Bank all-time low: -€55.00
Current bank: €302.50
Return on investment: 11.25pc
Saturday, April 21, 2012
Saturday's trades
A busy enough day today.
Yesterday, my Betfair balance showed a profit of one point but my records for this show a one point loss. This is because Six Of Clubs is down on the Betfair/Timeform site as trading at 4.5 in-running (which is not quite 50% of its SP). However, I had €20 matched below 4.5 (had some at 4.3 from memory).
Someone said that they only record its low if £100 has been matched at that price. So that means it would not record my €20 matched as an in-running low.
While I've recorded this (and others) as losers for my records this time, from now on I'm going to record exactly what actually happened with my own account from Betfair, just to be more accurate.
Elsewhere, the Scottish National takes place today. I've an article in the Indo about that:
http://www.independent.ie/sport/horse-racing/benny-may-be-ayr-apparent-3087826.html
Went with Benny Be Good each-way, although like Aintree, it's not a race for heavy punting. Best of luck with your betting/trading today.
Today's inplay trades:
Yesterday, my Betfair balance showed a profit of one point but my records for this show a one point loss. This is because Six Of Clubs is down on the Betfair/Timeform site as trading at 4.5 in-running (which is not quite 50% of its SP). However, I had €20 matched below 4.5 (had some at 4.3 from memory).
Someone said that they only record its low if £100 has been matched at that price. So that means it would not record my €20 matched as an in-running low.
While I've recorded this (and others) as losers for my records this time, from now on I'm going to record exactly what actually happened with my own account from Betfair, just to be more accurate.
Elsewhere, the Scottish National takes place today. I've an article in the Indo about that:
http://www.independent.ie/sport/horse-racing/benny-may-be-ayr-apparent-3087826.html
Went with Benny Be Good each-way, although like Aintree, it's not a race for heavy punting. Best of luck with your betting/trading today.
Today's inplay trades:
Friday, April 20, 2012
Getting high
The inplay trades hit a new all time high yesterday which pleases me greatly, although I know that these things can be temporary and the prospect of a bad run is always around the corner.
I mentioned recently about not getting caught up in the individual results although I do believe you should celebrate little landmarks along the way - otherwise, what's the point? The bank is up to €285 to a €10 stake so I guess the next landmark will be €300.
While I'm recording this to a €10 stake, I've actually been hitting them with €20 myself so it's been a reasonably good week so far with a ton earned or thereabouts.
Below is a chart tracking progress, and underneath that is today's inplay trades:
I mentioned recently about not getting caught up in the individual results although I do believe you should celebrate little landmarks along the way - otherwise, what's the point? The bank is up to €285 to a €10 stake so I guess the next landmark will be €300.
While I'm recording this to a €10 stake, I've actually been hitting them with €20 myself so it's been a reasonably good week so far with a ton earned or thereabouts.
Below is a chart tracking progress, and underneath that is today's inplay trades:
Thursday, April 19, 2012
Thursday's Betfair in-running trades
Just a small few for today. Best of luck with your betting/trading:
Wednesday, April 18, 2012
New all-time high - but...
I mentioned yesterday about not getting caught up in the individual trade results but it was interesting today as the inplay trading bank hit a new all time high..... For about an hour!
In the end, I'd two winners and two losers meaning I had a breakeven day, bar losing a few quid commission.
Again, I don't want to get too nitty gritty about each bet but when you are hovering at the all time high, you just have the urge to kick on a bit:
In the end, I'd two winners and two losers meaning I had a breakeven day, bar losing a few quid commission.
Again, I don't want to get too nitty gritty about each bet but when you are hovering at the all time high, you just have the urge to kick on a bit:
Tuesday, April 17, 2012
Hard to see the macro view!
I'd three successful trades and one level today which brought the inplay trading bank to just two quid short of the all-time high (see previous post).
While I'm very happy with this, deep down, I know I shouldn't be so concerned with the individual daily results - but it's so hard not to be!
What I really need to be concerned about is the long term picture and trust I have a good strategy overall. But that's easy to do when things are going well. When you've been stuck in a rut as I have been, you tend to keep checking each bet and hoping it goes your way. You start to doubt yourself and it gets hard to be positive following a string of bad results. I sometimes wonder if that has an effect on my study and how I pick my trades.
It's human nature I guess and it's something I'm trying to get my head around. In 'Trading In The Zone', the author talks about how futile taking the micro view can be and also how it causes unnecessary stress. Taking the micro view is something I'm trying not to do but I must admit, I find it hard not to log on to check the individual results. Ideally, I could just log in at the end of the day and see how I done - it would be less stressful. But with iPhones and what not, it's just too tempting.
While I record this to a €10 stake, I'm actually trading these using €20 at the moment (laying back with €40) so it was a reasonably good day for the Betfair balance, with sixty quid earned bar commission. Again, a daily result shouldn't mean too much long term but when the Euro symbol is there in front of your eyes, it's quite real and hard not to get involved emotionally.
Not sure what my point is here really - just some ramblings on how hard it can be for humans to see the bigger picture.
Today's P&L:
While I'm very happy with this, deep down, I know I shouldn't be so concerned with the individual daily results - but it's so hard not to be!
What I really need to be concerned about is the long term picture and trust I have a good strategy overall. But that's easy to do when things are going well. When you've been stuck in a rut as I have been, you tend to keep checking each bet and hoping it goes your way. You start to doubt yourself and it gets hard to be positive following a string of bad results. I sometimes wonder if that has an effect on my study and how I pick my trades.
It's human nature I guess and it's something I'm trying to get my head around. In 'Trading In The Zone', the author talks about how futile taking the micro view can be and also how it causes unnecessary stress. Taking the micro view is something I'm trying not to do but I must admit, I find it hard not to log on to check the individual results. Ideally, I could just log in at the end of the day and see how I done - it would be less stressful. But with iPhones and what not, it's just too tempting.
While I record this to a €10 stake, I'm actually trading these using €20 at the moment (laying back with €40) so it was a reasonably good day for the Betfair balance, with sixty quid earned bar commission. Again, a daily result shouldn't mean too much long term but when the Euro symbol is there in front of your eyes, it's quite real and hard not to get involved emotionally.
Not sure what my point is here really - just some ramblings on how hard it can be for humans to see the bigger picture.
Today's P&L:
Trading in a range
The inplay trades have been stuck in a rut lately, winning money then losing, then winning - but going nowhere really. As you can see from the graph below, it hit a high of €260 to a €10 stake at trade number 151, but I'm about €30 short of that at the moment and we are now at trade number 263.
If that chart were a stock price, I guess you would say it is 'trading in a range'.
I'm not certain it's anything to worry about - a couple of those bets were recorded as losers even though I was partly matched on a few. For records, though, I just put them down as losers. But I'm finding it hard to kick on again which is frustrating. Maybe it's the season changeover? Or maybe they grew a bit quick at the start - I don't know but sure I'll keep plugging away. I know that targets can be a bad idea so at the moment, the aim is simply to get past €260 and create another all time high.
Regarding the financial trading, I'm holding off on that for a bit. MarketSpreads reckon they'll be up and running again soon but I'll wait and see. I wonder if the other spread firm's books are OK? It's a bit of a worry for account holders but sure we will wait and see.
Here's the inplay trade stats, and today's inplay trades are posted below, under the chart. All trades are recorded to a €10 stake, laying back with €20 and assumes commission is 5%:
Trades: 246
Successful Trades: 121 (49.2%)
Losing Trades: 92 (37.4%)
Levels (no win or loss): 33 (13.4%)
Longest sequence of winners: 5
Longest sequence of losers: 5
Average Betfair SP: 24.59
Average in-running price drop: 57.44%
Bank all-time high: €260
Bank all-time low: -€55.00
Current bank: €229.50
Return on investment: 9.33%
If that chart were a stock price, I guess you would say it is 'trading in a range'.
I'm not certain it's anything to worry about - a couple of those bets were recorded as losers even though I was partly matched on a few. For records, though, I just put them down as losers. But I'm finding it hard to kick on again which is frustrating. Maybe it's the season changeover? Or maybe they grew a bit quick at the start - I don't know but sure I'll keep plugging away. I know that targets can be a bad idea so at the moment, the aim is simply to get past €260 and create another all time high.
Regarding the financial trading, I'm holding off on that for a bit. MarketSpreads reckon they'll be up and running again soon but I'll wait and see. I wonder if the other spread firm's books are OK? It's a bit of a worry for account holders but sure we will wait and see.
Here's the inplay trade stats, and today's inplay trades are posted below, under the chart. All trades are recorded to a €10 stake, laying back with €20 and assumes commission is 5%:
Trades: 246
Successful Trades: 121 (49.2%)
Losing Trades: 92 (37.4%)
Levels (no win or loss): 33 (13.4%)
Longest sequence of winners: 5
Longest sequence of losers: 5
Average Betfair SP: 24.59
Average in-running price drop: 57.44%
Bank all-time high: €260
Bank all-time low: -€55.00
Current bank: €229.50
Return on investment: 9.33%
Tuesday's trades:
Monday, April 16, 2012
Back to the grind
Following a fantastic couple of days with my cousins in Mayo, it's back to the grind today.
Don't have time for a write up as I'm heading out the door. Just one inplay trade today:
3.15 Wolverhampton - Wild Desert
Don't have time for a write up as I'm heading out the door. Just one inplay trade today:
3.15 Wolverhampton - Wild Desert
Saturday, April 14, 2012
Aintree Grand National 2012
Well, it's that time of the year again when everyone and their granny has a bet. I've an article in the Irish Independent today which I've reproduced below. It's never a race for heavy punting but it's great craic all the same.
Yesterday's inplay lays lost a couple of points - one or two of them were partially matched but for recording purposes, I'll put them down as losers.
I've a few for today:
Yesterday's inplay lays lost a couple of points - one or two of them were partially matched but for recording purposes, I'll put them down as losers.
I've a few for today:
I DON'T have much of a sweet tooth but I have to admit, the
ads for Cadbury's Creme Egg are very catchy and readers are sure to be
familiar with their slogan, 'How do you eat yours?'
There's countless ways to eat a Creme Egg and everyone has their own method. It's not dissimilar to the Grand National then; everyone has their own way of picking their horses and the selection methods I've seen down through the years range from the fun to the downright bizarre.
Whether it's pet names, superstitions or the colour of the jockey silks, everyone has their own way to make the list of 40-odd runners more manageable.
While it's never a race for heavy punting, my own preferred method is to go back over the lists of previous winners and losers to see if I can spot any trends.
Of course, trends and statistics can be bent and twisted to suit the user and, as the British writer Noel Moynihan once said, statistics will prove anything, even the truth.
But it's next to impossible to study this race as you would any other, so with a bit of caution I'm going to suggest putting a red line through a number of horses based on a certain stat.
The fact is the last horse to win the Grand National carrying more than 11st 5lbs was way back in 1977 and that horse happened to be the exceptional Red Rum.
This means I'll be opposing the favourite, Synchronised, which is set to carry top weight of 11st 10lbs, although if we take his Gold Cup victory into consideration, he's technically 7lbs well-in so perhaps he'll be the one to break the rules with Tony McCoy doing the steering.
As short as 6/1 in places though, the bookies are taking no chances and fresh in the memory is the hammering they took in 2010 when McCoy won his first Aintree Grand National on board Don't Push It, which was heavily supported on the morning of the race.
Some horses priced in single figures have actually won it recently (Comply Or Die and Hedgehunter in this century), but the whole fun of the Grand National is trying to get a nice each-way bet landed at a double-figure price, so I'm going to look elsewhere for a bit of value. With so many fallers each year, I always have more than one horse running for me and the first I've settled on is the front-running Giles Cross, trained by Victor Dartnall.
Generally speaking, prominently ridden horses perform better than those that are held up in the Grand National so I hope to see Paddy Brennan get a nice spot up the front early on and keep him out of the traffic.
If the ground is any way soft, it will help his cause and you could do worse things this weekend than back him at 18/1.
The other that will carry my money is West End Rocker, which is generally available at 12/1. He made an early exit when brought down in last year's Grand National but he's since gone on to prove himself over these fences by winning the Becher Chase back in December by an impressive 22 lengths.
A lack of a prep run due to unsuitable ground is a negative but he stays all day and he's another one which will appreciate a bit of cut in the ground.
Remember, all the bookmakers will be touting for your business today so shop around and take full advantage of the free bets and specials.
EACH-WAY OUTSIDER
At 12/1, it's worth taking a chance on Bridle Belle for the Better Grand National Odds at Freebetting.co.uk Handicap at Lingfield (2.30). She won a class two handicap at Ripon last year but has been out of her depth in her latest three starts. She's back down to a more realistic mark and can make her presence felt today.
TODAY'S SELECTIONS
1.45 Aintree: Simonsig
2.20 Tramore: Boxer Beat
2.30 Lingfield: Bridle Belle (e/w)
4.15 Aintree: Giles Cross (e/w)
4.15 Aintree: West End Rocker (e/w)
There's countless ways to eat a Creme Egg and everyone has their own method. It's not dissimilar to the Grand National then; everyone has their own way of picking their horses and the selection methods I've seen down through the years range from the fun to the downright bizarre.
Whether it's pet names, superstitions or the colour of the jockey silks, everyone has their own way to make the list of 40-odd runners more manageable.
While it's never a race for heavy punting, my own preferred method is to go back over the lists of previous winners and losers to see if I can spot any trends.
Of course, trends and statistics can be bent and twisted to suit the user and, as the British writer Noel Moynihan once said, statistics will prove anything, even the truth.
But it's next to impossible to study this race as you would any other, so with a bit of caution I'm going to suggest putting a red line through a number of horses based on a certain stat.
The fact is the last horse to win the Grand National carrying more than 11st 5lbs was way back in 1977 and that horse happened to be the exceptional Red Rum.
This means I'll be opposing the favourite, Synchronised, which is set to carry top weight of 11st 10lbs, although if we take his Gold Cup victory into consideration, he's technically 7lbs well-in so perhaps he'll be the one to break the rules with Tony McCoy doing the steering.
As short as 6/1 in places though, the bookies are taking no chances and fresh in the memory is the hammering they took in 2010 when McCoy won his first Aintree Grand National on board Don't Push It, which was heavily supported on the morning of the race.
Some horses priced in single figures have actually won it recently (Comply Or Die and Hedgehunter in this century), but the whole fun of the Grand National is trying to get a nice each-way bet landed at a double-figure price, so I'm going to look elsewhere for a bit of value. With so many fallers each year, I always have more than one horse running for me and the first I've settled on is the front-running Giles Cross, trained by Victor Dartnall.
Generally speaking, prominently ridden horses perform better than those that are held up in the Grand National so I hope to see Paddy Brennan get a nice spot up the front early on and keep him out of the traffic.
If the ground is any way soft, it will help his cause and you could do worse things this weekend than back him at 18/1.
The other that will carry my money is West End Rocker, which is generally available at 12/1. He made an early exit when brought down in last year's Grand National but he's since gone on to prove himself over these fences by winning the Becher Chase back in December by an impressive 22 lengths.
A lack of a prep run due to unsuitable ground is a negative but he stays all day and he's another one which will appreciate a bit of cut in the ground.
Remember, all the bookmakers will be touting for your business today so shop around and take full advantage of the free bets and specials.
EACH-WAY OUTSIDER
At 12/1, it's worth taking a chance on Bridle Belle for the Better Grand National Odds at Freebetting.co.uk Handicap at Lingfield (2.30). She won a class two handicap at Ripon last year but has been out of her depth in her latest three starts. She's back down to a more realistic mark and can make her presence felt today.
TODAY'S SELECTIONS
1.45 Aintree: Simonsig
2.20 Tramore: Boxer Beat
2.30 Lingfield: Bridle Belle (e/w)
4.15 Aintree: Giles Cross (e/w)
4.15 Aintree: West End Rocker (e/w)
- Wayne Bailey - Betting Ring
Irish Independent
Thursday, April 12, 2012
Big Buck's, Friday inplay Betfair trades
One of my all-time favourite horses Big Buck's was at it
again today and has now won 17 races on the trot. Unbelievable. Of course, he
always goes off at short prices but had you put a tenner on him every one of
his 34 races, you'd be up €265.
He's just a joy to watch and long may he continue winning.
It was a decent day on the inplay trades today and following
a little spell of going nowhere, I'm back within three points of the all-time
high. If I can kick on past that all time high on Friday, I'll be one happy
man. Starting to hit these with bigger stakes now and I'll be using €25 on
these, laying back with €50. The big meetings like Aintree have a lot of
liquidity so it's proved easy to get matched. And with a lot of punters betting
at Aintree, it has a knock-on effect in the other markets too which are a bit
busier than normal. All good news for us traders.
Here's Friday's inplay trades:
Aintree Grand National meeting
Not much time for a write up as I'm running out the door - will post again later or tomorrow. Had a great few days in Mayo. Looking forward to Aintree and Big Buck's. Busy day ahead on the inplay lays:
Tuesday, April 10, 2012
Jedward
God help me, but I'm bringing my daughter to see Jedward tonight!
It's down in Mayo so I'm staying overnight with a cousin of mine who lives in Castlebar. I know they haven't a note but the kids love them and in fairness, it's all innocent stuff which it should be - my daughter is seven and loves them. The things we do for our kids!
So there'll be no selections tomorrow as I'll be driving home but I've to inplay trades for today:
4.00 Fairy - Sportsmaster
4.30 Fairy - Gentle Alice
It's down in Mayo so I'm staying overnight with a cousin of mine who lives in Castlebar. I know they haven't a note but the kids love them and in fairness, it's all innocent stuff which it should be - my daughter is seven and loves them. The things we do for our kids!
So there'll be no selections tomorrow as I'll be driving home but I've to inplay trades for today:
4.00 Fairy - Sportsmaster
4.30 Fairy - Gentle Alice
Monday, April 9, 2012
Betfair SP records
Had a number of bets matched today at lower prices than the Betfair/Timeform page lists them at.
Someone posted a comment saying that there needs to be £100 matched before it is recorded as an in-running low.
Not sure how that translates to Euro but have a look at Dantes King from today:
The Timeform page has the in-running low at 14.0:
http://form.horseracing.betfair.com/horse-racing/090412/Fairyhouse-IE-Fry/1725
However, I was matched at lower prices than this, albeit for small amounts. As you can see from the screenshot, €75 was matched at 14.
But a further €68 was matched at prices below that (including some of my money), and a small sum of that was below 50pc of the BSP.
Just highlights some of the problems I may have with this using bigger stakes.
Someone posted a comment saying that there needs to be £100 matched before it is recorded as an in-running low.
Not sure how that translates to Euro but have a look at Dantes King from today:
The Timeform page has the in-running low at 14.0:
http://form.horseracing.betfair.com/horse-racing/090412/Fairyhouse-IE-Fry/1725
However, I was matched at lower prices than this, albeit for small amounts. As you can see from the screenshot, €75 was matched at 14.
But a further €68 was matched at prices below that (including some of my money), and a small sum of that was below 50pc of the BSP.
Just highlights some of the problems I may have with this using bigger stakes.
Irish Grand National, Easter Monday inplay Betfair trades
Have been asked my views on the Irish Grand National by a few people but I'll hold my hands up and say that it's just too tricky to figure out for me. If a gun were put to my head, I'd suggest an each-way bet on Groody Hill - but very much with fun stakes and it's not a race for punting much. I don't really bother going anymore - the last time I went, the crowds were a bit mental and you could hardly get a pint or a bet on and I watched the big race on the screens. I'm not really one for crowds so that's not my idea of fun. Then again, that was a few years ago and things may have changed since.
It's my busiest day yet on the inplay trades with plenty of racing on. Again, these busy days can be a great boost for the bank or else a big knock can be taken depending on how well they go.
I'm a bit tired as I've done quite a bit of race watching to get the selections. I'm finding that I'm relying on my own race-reading these days rather than anything else.
While I'll still record this to a €10 stake, I'm half thinking of going a little bigger today and may hit them with €25 stakes. I'll have a look at the funds and work out the worst case scenario and see if it might be worth trying.
Here's today's inplay trades:
It's my busiest day yet on the inplay trades with plenty of racing on. Again, these busy days can be a great boost for the bank or else a big knock can be taken depending on how well they go.
I'm a bit tired as I've done quite a bit of race watching to get the selections. I'm finding that I'm relying on my own race-reading these days rather than anything else.
While I'll still record this to a €10 stake, I'm half thinking of going a little bigger today and may hit them with €25 stakes. I'll have a look at the funds and work out the worst case scenario and see if it might be worth trying.
Here's today's inplay trades:
Sunday, April 8, 2012
Easter Sunday
A couple of points profit yesterday which is pleasing enough. A few inplay trades today:
Saturday, April 7, 2012
Busy day ahead
Having enjoyed a break away from racing with the wedding and Good Friday, it's a very busy day today.
Some people moan that racing should on and pubs/off licences should be open on Good Friday but I disagree. There's too much racing on as it is and I think it's good to have a day away from it. I mean, it's on 363 days of the year. What other sport is that relentless? On a similar theme, I think it's good to have a non-drinking day too. Ireland's attitude to alcohol is shocking really when you see how panicked people get about one day of no alcohol. It's good to reflect on that.
I'm no holy joe but I like to celebrate Easter's real purpose away from all the eggs and chocolate and crap, so I do enjoy the weekend off. I'll go to mass in the morning and then I'm going to do a turkey and ham and enjoy a nice bottle of wine I've bought (I've been off it for lent).
I suppose it's a bit of a taboo these days with all the revisionism, but I also like to remember the 1916 rebellion in Dublin and those who paid the ultimate sacrifice and gave up their lives for Ireland. While 1916 has often been hijacked, I still think we are a bit pathetic as a country in not celebrating it properly in case we offend someone. We seem to want to prove how grown up we are by ignoring the past but other countries, including Britain are not afraid to celebrate their heroes - and more power to them.
I suppose it doesn't mean much now - sadly, we've more or less given ourselves to Europle/Germany/France and we are not exactly free are we?
I digress!
Today is probably the busiest day I've had on the inplay trades so I'm a little nervous as busy days can prove crucial in whether a profit will be shown for the month:
Some people moan that racing should on and pubs/off licences should be open on Good Friday but I disagree. There's too much racing on as it is and I think it's good to have a day away from it. I mean, it's on 363 days of the year. What other sport is that relentless? On a similar theme, I think it's good to have a non-drinking day too. Ireland's attitude to alcohol is shocking really when you see how panicked people get about one day of no alcohol. It's good to reflect on that.
I'm no holy joe but I like to celebrate Easter's real purpose away from all the eggs and chocolate and crap, so I do enjoy the weekend off. I'll go to mass in the morning and then I'm going to do a turkey and ham and enjoy a nice bottle of wine I've bought (I've been off it for lent).
I suppose it's a bit of a taboo these days with all the revisionism, but I also like to remember the 1916 rebellion in Dublin and those who paid the ultimate sacrifice and gave up their lives for Ireland. While 1916 has often been hijacked, I still think we are a bit pathetic as a country in not celebrating it properly in case we offend someone. We seem to want to prove how grown up we are by ignoring the past but other countries, including Britain are not afraid to celebrate their heroes - and more power to them.
I suppose it doesn't mean much now - sadly, we've more or less given ourselves to Europle/Germany/France and we are not exactly free are we?
I digress!
Today is probably the busiest day I've had on the inplay trades so I'm a little nervous as busy days can prove crucial in whether a profit will be shown for the month:
Friday, April 6, 2012
Very worrying
First it was World Spreads, now MarketSpreads have suspended accounts. Quite worrying, especially for anyone with a decent sum lodged.
I hope this is sorted, MarketSpreads are a good Irish company and I've always trusted them. We'll wait and see. As it happens, I don't have too much money lodged at the moment with them as I'd been 'out of the zone' lately and had went to cash, but I think I'll take a look at my other spread accounts and maybe put them to cash too.
Here's hoping it's sorted soon:
Dear Client
Today, Easter Thursday, at about 4pm we received an instruction from the Central Bank to suspend trading despite the fact that we are profitable, solvent and all client funds are properly segregated.
We went to the High Court to at the very least achieve a stay on this completely unexpected Bank instruction but the judge could not see anything unlawful with the Bank’s actions and we are now forced to suspend client trading and close all open positions.
We are in the process of closing down all client positions and will do so as fairly and efficiently as we possibly can.
Despite the fact that two weeks ago the Bank affirmed that our client funds are properly managed, they have instructed us not to release any funds to clients until they authorise us to do so.
On Tuesday next, another independent report by Grant Thornton to verify client funds is being delivered to the Bank. This report, ordered by the bank last week and paid for by us, is expected to say that client funds are properly segregated, managed and intact. We understand that if the report is satisfactory that the Bank will then authorise us to release any funds requested.Should you wish to have your funds remitted back to you, let us know by return.
As soon as the Bank authorises us to release funds we will do so immediately.
All the staff and directors of MarketSpreads are highly appreciative of your loyal custom and regret any inconvenience caused to you.
We hope that business may return to normal in coming weeks.
Yours sincerely,
MarketSpreads Directors and Staff
Wednesday, April 4, 2012
That's odd
Cadore and Blue Bicycle were inplay trades yesterday, and they went off at 5.6 and 8.6 respectively.
On the Timeform results page, it says their in-running lows were 3.4 and 6.0.
http://form.horseracing.betfair.com/horse-racing/030412/Sedgefield-GB-Sed/1600
http://form.horseracing.betfair.com/horse-racing/030412/Thurles-IE-Thu/1715
This would mean that both were unsuccessful on my inplay lays strategy as they didn't hit 50% of their price in-running. However, my own records show that they DID hit 50% in-running and I successfully layed them at 3.3 and 4.8 respectively, albeit for small amounts.
Wonder why this is? Perhaps Timeform don't record small amounts matched and only record its inplay low if a certain amount of money is matched? The money I got matched was not big so this is a possibility. Anyway, I've emailed them to see what the story is.
S&P500
Hoping I'm still not too tuned out but I've just bought the S&P500 a few minutes ago. I was waiting for the price (15min charts) to bounce off the pivot at 1399 which it did beautifully. I then wait for another green candle to confirm the uptrend, which I've got. I'll get out for a profit at that 1407 pivot, and my stop loss is set for a pivot not shown in the pic at 1392. As mentioned, the Americans are buyers of this market when they hit their desks but the Europeans and Asians are selling it overnight. Hopefully the yanks will get to work later and drive it back up.
I've a few inplay trades for today, pictured below.
I'm off to a wedding up in Cavan today :-) I'm staying over so it's highly unlikely that I'll have any selections tomorrow. Friday is Good Friday so I probably won't have any selections until Saturday.
Best of luck with whatever you are doing.
On the Timeform results page, it says their in-running lows were 3.4 and 6.0.
http://form.horseracing.betfair.com/horse-racing/030412/Sedgefield-GB-Sed/1600
http://form.horseracing.betfair.com/horse-racing/030412/Thurles-IE-Thu/1715
This would mean that both were unsuccessful on my inplay lays strategy as they didn't hit 50% of their price in-running. However, my own records show that they DID hit 50% in-running and I successfully layed them at 3.3 and 4.8 respectively, albeit for small amounts.
Wonder why this is? Perhaps Timeform don't record small amounts matched and only record its inplay low if a certain amount of money is matched? The money I got matched was not big so this is a possibility. Anyway, I've emailed them to see what the story is.
S&P500
Hoping I'm still not too tuned out but I've just bought the S&P500 a few minutes ago. I was waiting for the price (15min charts) to bounce off the pivot at 1399 which it did beautifully. I then wait for another green candle to confirm the uptrend, which I've got. I'll get out for a profit at that 1407 pivot, and my stop loss is set for a pivot not shown in the pic at 1392. As mentioned, the Americans are buyers of this market when they hit their desks but the Europeans and Asians are selling it overnight. Hopefully the yanks will get to work later and drive it back up.
I've a few inplay trades for today, pictured below.
I'm off to a wedding up in Cavan today :-) I'm staying over so it's highly unlikely that I'll have any selections tomorrow. Friday is Good Friday so I probably won't have any selections until Saturday.
Best of luck with whatever you are doing.
Tuesday, April 3, 2012
(Not) trading the S&P500, Tuesday's inplay trades
As you can see, the S&P 500 took a jump yesterday:
The Americans want to buy but the Europeans are holding them back a little. I toyed with the idea of buying but I just couldn't pull the trigger. Not sure what it is, I'm just not 'tuned in' to the market I guess and can't really get that feel for it. When I'm tuned out, I'll just watch it for a couple of days/weeks until I start to feel in the flow again. Hard to explain but sometimes trading is easy and sometimes it's really hard. When it's really hard I just stay away. I think my time away from the financials working on Cheltenham and writing the book etc has had an effect. Anyway, I'll keep my eye on it and maybe do some paper trading.
Here's Tuesday's inplay trades:
Here's Tuesday's inplay trades:
Monday, April 2, 2012
€224.50
Following a little bad spell, the inplay trades have bounced back a little and now stand at €224.50 to a €10 stake.
This isn't too bad at all so from next week maybe, I'm going to kick on with bigger stakes (thinking of using €25 per back and laying off with €50). I'll see how it goes. So far so good, but I don't want to get complacent.
Here's the stats so far, and the chart below shows my progress.
Trades: 183
Successful trades: 91
Losing trades: 64
Level trades (no win or loss): 28
Longest sequence of winners: 5
Longest sequence of losers: 5
Average Betfair SP: 24.99
Average price drop: 59.68%
Return on investment: 12.27%
Bank all-time high: €260
Bank all-time low: -€55.00
Current bank: €224.50
I'll post tomorrow's trades in the morning.
This isn't too bad at all so from next week maybe, I'm going to kick on with bigger stakes (thinking of using €25 per back and laying off with €50). I'll see how it goes. So far so good, but I don't want to get complacent.
Here's the stats so far, and the chart below shows my progress.
Trades: 183
Successful trades: 91
Losing trades: 64
Level trades (no win or loss): 28
Longest sequence of winners: 5
Longest sequence of losers: 5
Average Betfair SP: 24.99
Average price drop: 59.68%
Return on investment: 12.27%
Bank all-time high: €260
Bank all-time low: -€55.00
Current bank: €224.50
I'll post tomorrow's trades in the morning.
S&P 500 trading, Inplay trades
Haven't been trading the S&P all that much - just can't find the opportunities. We are floating around the 1390-1410 area for a bit so I may try some range trading if it hangs around there for another while. No point in trying to create opportunities if they are not there though.
A couple of points profit yesterday on the inplay trades and what's more, the automated spreadsheet worked a treat :-)
A few for today:
A couple of points profit yesterday on the inplay trades and what's more, the automated spreadsheet worked a treat :-)
A few for today:
Sunday, April 1, 2012
April
I said I'd post the inplay lays until the end of March but I've had one or two emails about them so I'll keep posting them until the end of April for now. A couple of poor days on them sees the bank dip down just below €200 again. Hope it's nothing to worry about.
Set gruss to fire in the bets automatically yesterday and it worked with each except for one horse. But I think I know why so I'll test it again today:
Set gruss to fire in the bets automatically yesterday and it worked with each except for one horse. But I think I know why so I'll test it again today: