Haven't been out and about in the car as much as I wanted to but I still have a week to win the bet with the missus.
She's driving years and thought I'd never bother to learn so a few weeks ago, we struck a €150 bet that I'd drive down to her work before Christmas and pick her up and drive home.
She works in Dún Laoghaire which is a busy town so it could be tricky as I've only ever drove on quiet roads on Sundays - but I'm going to kick on this week with plenty of practice. The car is big enough (Mitsubishi Lancer) so it's a little tricky to get used to compared to the motorbike but I'm really enjoying learning.
It would be a nice couple of bob to have for Leopardstown if I win the bet ;-)
Betting wise, I had a good day yesterday for the Irish Independent with a 12/1 winner (Raya Star). I'm pretty chuffed about that as I think I've had around 4 or 5 profitable weekends in a row at this stage. I consider myself a better punter on the flat but I've been doing quite good at this time of the year on the jumps.I'd been going through a rough patch for a while late summer so some nice priced winners are most welcome, especially at this time of the year.
Don't think I'll get to trade today on Betfair as I want to get out driving when I'm done my form study. Nearly done but there's nothing standing out so I might have a blank day on the betting front.
mentioned a few times, I’ve been getting up at six every morning to put in some
good old form study work. It’s been tough to do but I’m getting loads done in
the extra few hours in the morning and I’m going to keep it up. I don’t find a
bet every day but I thought I’d track my progress and see how I get on over 100
bets and whether or not I can make the midweek stuff pay anymore. I’m half
thinking of getting the tipping site going again as I used to make a few bob
from it (I didn’t charge – I made money from donations and affiliate links) and
so I may start proofing the bets again.
some things to think about but my 100 bet trial is close to an end as it’s gone
well thankfully. There’s a picture below showing the progress on a chart, but
here’s the basics:
Strike Rate: 55%
Average Betfair SP: 3.04
Longest sequence of winners in a row: 7
Longest sequence of losers in a row: 5
Profit to €10 stake at Betfair SP: €301
delighted with this as I’m happy to operate at the lower end of the market
price wise, and it suggests that money can be made on the shorter ones. The
average price has been around 2/1. Short prices are nice in that you get plenty
of feel good winning streaks - although the downside of course is that a losing
streak can take time to recover from.
decide if I’ll start posting up my bets again, I’ve some stuff to do/think
about. First of all, my site is lying idle for ages and needs a cleanup and a
revamp. Second, I’ve to decide on a staking plan – the above is recorded to
level stakes which is the best way to do a trial – but in reality, some sort of
ratchet plan using a percentage of the
bank would yield a better return.
all of the above assumes I’m going to remain profitable – I’m not stupid enough
to take that as a given though. Things change all the time and a bad run can be
just around the corner. Who knows, my next sequence of 100 bets cold hit plenty
of losers and bad luck and may not pay – but I’ll plug ahead anyway and see how
we go. Just one bet today, Pride Of the Artic at 2.35 Gowran - but this is a tricky and I have my reservations so please don't take that as a tip or anything.
to trading the financials, the markets are not buying this Euro deal at all and
we’ve finally dropped into the 1.20s with the Euro against the dollar. To be
honest, I think they are all a bunch of morons – they brought even more
uncertainty to the markets with this ‘plan’ just before the Christmas break.
looking increasingly likely that there may need to be a referendum on the deal
in Ireland. Would it pass? I’m not so sure. People are tired of Europe, tired
of politics, and tired of being broke. Remember the posters for the Lisbon
treaty and the Nice treaty? “Lisbon
equals jobs, vote yes” .... “Nice
equals jobs, vote yes” .
People were told that if they voted no, they would endanger the economy. So
they voted yes. But where did it get us. Where the fuck are the promised jobs? They may have a hard time selling this as the
two other treaties didn’t deliver on what they promised, mainly jobs.
idea of a financial tax in Europe but not Britain could damage us badly. Why
would anyone stay in Dublin getting taxed out of it when they could just pop
across to the city in London to do business without the tax?
a bit silly of the Irish government to be coming out scare mongering already
telling us to vote yes – when the bloody content of the deal hasn’t even been
is a mess either way so I don’t know that a yes or a no vote on this would
change that. I dunno, you really can’t trust anyone with your money these days,
markets are not really buying this new Eurozone deal it seems and as some suspected,
it’s really just another small plaster on an open wound. It gets them a little
more time but it’s not a real solution to be honest and I’m not so sure a
referendum would pass in countries like Ireland should it arise. Where do we go from here? It’s hard to say. After
a day of falling slowly yesterday, traders have taken a bearish view of the
currency against the dollar and as I type, we are now down to the 1.30s.
memory, we haven’t traded this low since January and you’d have to wonder if it
will continue to slide should it break into the 1.20s.
there was in-running madness, joy - and carnage for some at Catterick today:
Dystonia’s Revenge traded at the maximum odds of 1000 (999-1) on Betfair; €36
matched at that price.
Runner-up Eighteen Carat (caught close home) traded at the minimum odds of 1.01
Quel Ballistic (hampered and unseated 2 out) traded at 1.11 (1-9).
Faller Corkage (8 lengths clear when falling 2 out) traded at 1.15 (1-7).
Third-place Definite Appeal traded at 1.48 (just over 4-9).
many banks were boosted/busted on that one!
It's been a funny week in the financials with everyone waiting on the big EU summit on Friday. It's kinda exciting to see which way it's all gonna go and it no matter what 'side' you are on, at least it's starting to finally come to a head. There's been a lot of uncertainty and I find it difficult to trade so hopefully by the new year we will at least know where we stand.
Regarding Betfair, the Irish government has announced in the budget that they plan to tax betting exchanges. How this will work remains to be seen and it seems very hard to police. There have been announcements on this before and nothing has happened so I'll see what happens over the next few weeks before I worry too much about it.
Anyway, I'll leave you all with this picture. Ciao!
2011 is now gone forever and were into a new month. November was pretty good
and I’m very pleased with how the form study has been going (the screenshot
shows the last 30 bets or so). As you can see, I’ve now got 70 bets under the
belt and the profit to a tenner is €243.10.
I’m still going to wait until I’ve got 100 bets under the belt before
posting these on my site and putting decent money on. You can’t help thinking
that a ton on each would have yielded a profit of well over two large by now
but I’m trying not to think that way as you can get cocky and carried away. As
you can see, I record quite a bit about each selection (most of it will only
make sense to me) so over time, I can filter out what is or isn’t working.
don’t want to get too cocky and it’s possible that I just hit a streak of luck
but the more bets I get under the belt, the more my confidence grows. It hasn’t
been easy though – I’m up at six in the morning most days now and by the time
9pm comes around, I’m knackered.
up at six has also helped my financial trading and the couple of hours I get in
the morning before I bring my daughter to school is a great time to get stuff
done. It's nice a peaceful and quiet and I've found that I enjoy working away while everyone is still in bed. I’ve been trying out some new strategies in the financial market s and so
far, I’m churning a small profit. Again, I’ll wait some time before going at it
with big stakes as I want to get into a routine.
One of the
lads asked me down for poker tonight and I would have loved to go as I haven’t
played in ages. However, I promised my daughter I’d watch the Late Late toy
show with her later so I guess I gotta stick to my word! Like many Irish homes, staying up late for the Toyshow was a big tradition in my house each year and it's good to do it now with my own family. We might get to play poker
tomorrow though, so I’ll see how it goes.
was also a good month for my Irish Independent column so I’m pleased about
that. I had hit a poor spell for a while but as the National Hunt form starts
to bed down a bit, it’s getting a little easier. I’m going to go with Sizing
Europe in the tingle creek but it’s a tricky race and it won’t be easy to win.
A librarian by profession, Wayne Bailey holds a degree in social science from University College Dublin. Wayne has always enjoyed sport and has been punting ever since his late father would give him 50p every Saturday to pick out a horse! His first real bet as an adult however, was on the one and only Istabraq in the 1998 Champion Hurdle and he’s had the racing bug ever since.
Wayne has been involved with horse racing for nearly a decade as a punter, writer and now owner. He currently pens ‘The Betting Ring’ column for the Irish Independent every Saturday.
Wayne helped set up Let’s Bet – a thriving forum for sports betting fans everywhere. He lives in Dublin with his wife and young daughter.
To contact Wayne, send an email to email@example.com