Didn't really do any trading today but had a bad day at the office punting and lost quite a lot of money - not a great end to the year but those are the breaks as they say.
Don't know when I'll get to trade again - as mentioned elsewhere my digital box went on the blink the other day so I've no racing at home. Rang them up and bloody NTL or UPC or whatever they call themselves said it will be at least a week before they send anyone out. That's pretty disgraceful really as a service - I'm not expecting someone out on New Years but a week or two?
I wonder will they knock a week or two off my bill? Ha!
Anyhow, I'm busy enough as it is with writing and work etc so if there's a positive, a little break at the New Year will give me time to think, read and reassess some strategies.
Off out tonight to a mate's house and looking forward to it a lot. I even got permission from herself to stay out all night if I wanted but I'm dying with a cold and feel a bit crap! Who knows, there may be a session going somewhere at 3am!
Happy New Year to all readers and thanks for the comments through the year - here's hoping 2011 brings plenty of cash as the budget has taken a lot off me.
Friday, December 31, 2010
Wednesday, December 29, 2010
Darts trading
Man, I gotta get into trading on Darts - just watched King V Smith there and the fluctuations were unbelievable with plenty of money available. I know one or two people love trading the darts and I can see why. Not sure how volatile that market was compared with others but I'm going to try it out again soon.
I traded a few positions but wanted to be a net backer of Smith overall so I let some of the bets ride when it came near the end. Netted a lovely €423 for myself which caps off a nice day as I had some decent bets on Big Zeb and Hurricane Fly in the racing too. I obviously won't be adding this towards the trading challenge totals but it wasn't a bad days work!
I've layed Energizing at 1.7 in the next at Kempton to win €150 but it will be a good day now anyway regardless of that outcome.
I traded a few positions but wanted to be a net backer of Smith overall so I let some of the bets ride when it came near the end. Netted a lovely €423 for myself which caps off a nice day as I had some decent bets on Big Zeb and Hurricane Fly in the racing too. I obviously won't be adding this towards the trading challenge totals but it wasn't a bad days work!
I've layed Energizing at 1.7 in the next at Kempton to win €150 but it will be a good day now anyway regardless of that outcome.
Tuesday, December 28, 2010
Leopardstown
Not going mad today but one of my mates is going up and asked me to have a look at the card so I may as well stick them up here for the craic too. Actually going out for a few pints to watch it (can't wait)- will be going up later this week too with the missus:
12.20 – Will be keeping an eye on SO YOUNG just to see how it races but won’t be having a b...et.
12.55 – Tadgh is expected to go well but MARLAY PARK ticks the right boxes for me at an each-way price.
1.25 – I know they have high hopes for Thegreatjohnbrowne but it’s a bit short in price. CHICAGO GREY ran well at Cheltenham so should be able handle this and looks the value bet.
2.00 – He’ll probably be a short enough favourite but MOURAD is the one to beat here. Ran some classy races last season but the only worry is the distance – he normally runs in 2mile 4furling or 2mile 5furlong races. This could be testing at 3mile but hopefully he has the class to see it through.
2.35 – The obvious one is Cooldine from the Willie Mullins yard who likes this ground. However, JONCOL should be a better price as he was poor last time out. The distance was wrong on that occasion so I’m going to forgive him and take a chance.
3.10 – A tricky wide open race. Get your pin out. I’m taking a chance on two each way, Action Master and Slievedaragh, both of which should be double figure prices.
3.40 – Trabajo hasn’t raced before but has a good pedigree. Heard a whisper for Star Neuville although Champagne Agent is the one to beat as Mullins has a great record in these races. Won’t be having a bet in this one
12.20 – Will be keeping an eye on SO YOUNG just to see how it races but won’t be having a b...et.
12.55 – Tadgh is expected to go well but MARLAY PARK ticks the right boxes for me at an each-way price.
1.25 – I know they have high hopes for Thegreatjohnbrowne but it’s a bit short in price. CHICAGO GREY ran well at Cheltenham so should be able handle this and looks the value bet.
2.00 – He’ll probably be a short enough favourite but MOURAD is the one to beat here. Ran some classy races last season but the only worry is the distance – he normally runs in 2mile 4furling or 2mile 5furlong races. This could be testing at 3mile but hopefully he has the class to see it through.
2.35 – The obvious one is Cooldine from the Willie Mullins yard who likes this ground. However, JONCOL should be a better price as he was poor last time out. The distance was wrong on that occasion so I’m going to forgive him and take a chance.
3.10 – A tricky wide open race. Get your pin out. I’m taking a chance on two each way, Action Master and Slievedaragh, both of which should be double figure prices.
3.40 – Trabajo hasn’t raced before but has a good pedigree. Heard a whisper for Star Neuville although Champagne Agent is the one to beat as Mullins has a great record in these races. Won’t be having a bet in this one
Monday, December 27, 2010
2 screens
I'm pretty pleased with today's profit of €67.98 as I only traded six races from Southwell. Can't wait for the proper racing to get back but I'm not complaining really.
As mentioned, my wife got me a monitor for Christmas and I used it today - really enjoyed it and earned some extra money by getting in early on some races with the extra screen. I still have to set up my desk properly but below is a picture.
The Challenge: to increase my trading bank by 5% each month.
The story so far...
Starting bank: €1,000 (beginning of May 2010)
Bank target for end of December: €2,058.25
Today’s opening bank: €2,154.67
Today’s closing bank: €2,222.65
Today's profit/loss: +€67.98
Today's turnover: €14,023.45
As mentioned, my wife got me a monitor for Christmas and I used it today - really enjoyed it and earned some extra money by getting in early on some races with the extra screen. I still have to set up my desk properly but below is a picture.
The Challenge: to increase my trading bank by 5% each month.
The story so far...
Starting bank: €1,000 (beginning of May 2010)
Bank target for end of December: €2,058.25
Today’s opening bank: €2,154.67
Today’s closing bank: €2,222.65
Today's profit/loss: +€67.98
Today's turnover: €14,023.45
Sunday, December 26, 2010
2 screen trading
Haven't updated in a while with the racing off etc - hope you all had a peaceful and happy Christmas.
The missus took my hint anyway and got me a new TV/Monitor for my computer - perfect Christmas gift for me and I'm looking forward to getting my little office set up over the next few days.
Also hoping to go to Leopardstown this week - maybe Thursday where it could be a cracking card.
Happy New Year to one and all.
The missus took my hint anyway and got me a new TV/Monitor for my computer - perfect Christmas gift for me and I'm looking forward to getting my little office set up over the next few days.
Also hoping to go to Leopardstown this week - maybe Thursday where it could be a cracking card.
Happy New Year to one and all.
Monday, December 13, 2010
The simple things
I'm off out later to have a pint or two and watch the United/Arsenal match. Have to say I'm really looking forward to relaxing - sometimes it's the simple things in life that provide the most pleasure.
I'm not a huge football fan but I like a punt on it now and then and put up a double in the Irish Independent on Saturday:
Tingle Creek - Master Minded
Utd v Arsenal - Both teams to score
Master Minded is in the bag and with Chelsea only drawing at the weekend, this could be a cracking match at the top - so hopefully I get at least one goal from each team.
Regarding the trading on Betfair, I was pleased to make €73 quid today as I was also trying to study some commodities for the Market Spreads competition and wasn't fully involved in all the racing markets. I even managed a clean sweep on the 12 races that I did trade so that feels good.
I've one or two things left to do and then it's out for a pint - hopefully I'll catch most of the match.
I'm not a huge football fan but I like a punt on it now and then and put up a double in the Irish Independent on Saturday:
Tingle Creek - Master Minded
Utd v Arsenal - Both teams to score
Master Minded is in the bag and with Chelsea only drawing at the weekend, this could be a cracking match at the top - so hopefully I get at least one goal from each team.
Regarding the trading on Betfair, I was pleased to make €73 quid today as I was also trying to study some commodities for the Market Spreads competition and wasn't fully involved in all the racing markets. I even managed a clean sweep on the 12 races that I did trade so that feels good.
I've one or two things left to do and then it's out for a pint - hopefully I'll catch most of the match.
Still in the top ten - but a great week needed
Just checked the leaderboard for the market spreads competition that I entered and I'm still in tenth place, having increased my €5,000 trading bank by 78%.
While I'm very pleased with that figure, it's far off the leaders so I'd need an extremely good week if I'm to get back into contention for a prize (this is the last week).
I've a few strategies this week that I'm going to employ that could work but I don't want to gamble either as I'm treating this as a great learning opportunity. Even if I don't finish in the money, I'd still consider it an achievement if I made the top ten as it was all new to me.
While I'm very pleased with that figure, it's far off the leaders so I'd need an extremely good week if I'm to get back into contention for a prize (this is the last week).
I've a few strategies this week that I'm going to employ that could work but I don't want to gamble either as I'm treating this as a great learning opportunity. Even if I don't finish in the money, I'd still consider it an achievement if I made the top ten as it was all new to me.
Saturday, December 11, 2010
Great to have Cheltenham back
Really enjoyed some proper racing again with Cheltenham and it was good to have some top quality cards on offer compared to what we've been getting because of the weather.
It was my first day trading properly in a while but it went extremely well with a profit of €121.16In fact, I only had one losing trade today and that was just something I was experimenting with in the place market so I'm extremely pleased.
Still no word on how the new tax announced in the budget will affect Betfair but we'll probably know more when the finance bill comes out. Fingers crossed it doesn't insert a spread for traders.
Off out tonight so I won't be trading the evening stuff at Wolves.
The Challenge: to increase my trading bank by 5% each month.
The story so far...
Starting bank: €1,000 (beginning of May 2010)
Bank target for end of December: €2,058.25
Today’s opening bank: €1,960.24
Today’s closing bank: €2,081.40
Today's profit/loss: +€121.16
Today's turnover: €29,154.77
Tuesday, December 7, 2010
November review & December preview
Forgot to do this at the end of the month but to be honest, there’s not a lot to report as I hardly got to trade much at all in November. As mentioned before, I took a hit of nearly 240 quid through carelessness on one particular day so that has put a big dent in the bank. Here’s how things stand:
November opening bank: €2,143.70
November closing bank: €1960.24
November profit/loss: -€183.46
As mentioned, my target for each month will be 5% of the bank.
5% of November’s closing bank is €98.01.
So the target for the end of the month is to get the overall bank to €2058.25. Despite the weather early this month, I think this is a very achievable target as I have a nice bit of time off over the Christmas and hope to get a good bit of trading done. Normally I head to Leopardstown on St Stephens’ Day but I’m seriously considering staying at home for a good deal of the Leopardstown festival so I can take in some busy meetings in the UK and trade. That said, my mates are already suggesting at least one day out on the lash so I’m sure I’ll be up there at some stage!
While I’m pretty disappointed with November, I feel good about December and time away from the project has given me time to think and read more about discipline and strategy. I’ve a bit of work on during this week but all going to plan, I’ll be trading again for Cheltenham on Saturday – fingers crossed this bad weather goes away soon.
On a side note, I see that it has been announced in today’s budget that all online betting in Ireland will be taxed at 1%, including the exchanges. I’m guessing that the bookies will absorb the tax like they do in the shops but how it will work on Betfair remains to be seen. Will the tax be on the net bet (similar to Betfair commission)? Because if they tax both back and lay bets as separate entities, that puts another spread between the prices for traders. Maybe Betfair will somehow absorb it? We’ll wait and see…
November opening bank: €2,143.70
November closing bank: €1960.24
November profit/loss: -€183.46
As mentioned, my target for each month will be 5% of the bank.
5% of November’s closing bank is €98.01.
So the target for the end of the month is to get the overall bank to €2058.25. Despite the weather early this month, I think this is a very achievable target as I have a nice bit of time off over the Christmas and hope to get a good bit of trading done. Normally I head to Leopardstown on St Stephens’ Day but I’m seriously considering staying at home for a good deal of the Leopardstown festival so I can take in some busy meetings in the UK and trade. That said, my mates are already suggesting at least one day out on the lash so I’m sure I’ll be up there at some stage!
While I’m pretty disappointed with November, I feel good about December and time away from the project has given me time to think and read more about discipline and strategy. I’ve a bit of work on during this week but all going to plan, I’ll be trading again for Cheltenham on Saturday – fingers crossed this bad weather goes away soon.
On a side note, I see that it has been announced in today’s budget that all online betting in Ireland will be taxed at 1%, including the exchanges. I’m guessing that the bookies will absorb the tax like they do in the shops but how it will work on Betfair remains to be seen. Will the tax be on the net bet (similar to Betfair commission)? Because if they tax both back and lay bets as separate entities, that puts another spread between the prices for traders. Maybe Betfair will somehow absorb it? We’ll wait and see…
Monday, December 6, 2010
Back in the top ten
... but only just.
I mentioned before that I'm taking part in the Market Spreads trading competition. I lost a few grand at the end of November but the recovery in gold has seen me earn about €4000 this week meaning I've creeped back into the top ten in the competition but only just. My staring bank of five grand is now over nine grand but there's still a few up over the 20K mark.
I'm still in contention for a prize though and I'll trade very carefully over the final two weeks or so. I'm still holding a small bit of gold so it would benefit me if it goes up - but I'm going to look at other commodities and diversify a little by buying some and shorting others. By the way, I've realised that I forgot to do a November review so I'll try do that this week.
I mentioned before that I'm taking part in the Market Spreads trading competition. I lost a few grand at the end of November but the recovery in gold has seen me earn about €4000 this week meaning I've creeped back into the top ten in the competition but only just. My staring bank of five grand is now over nine grand but there's still a few up over the 20K mark.
I'm still in contention for a prize though and I'll trade very carefully over the final two weeks or so. I'm still holding a small bit of gold so it would benefit me if it goes up - but I'm going to look at other commodities and diversify a little by buying some and shorting others. By the way, I've realised that I forgot to do a November review so I'll try do that this week.
Friday, December 3, 2010
Weather
Pretty much zero to report lately with the weather the way it is. I have been working away on some other stuff and haven't bothered trying to trade what poor meetings are left. Here's hoping for a pick up soon.
Thursday, November 25, 2010
Ouch
Took a fair hit yesterday all on one race and I must admit that it hurts pretty bad.
I came home from work and had 15 minutes to kill before I had to head back out. The laptop was on so I thought I'd just trade a quick race from Kempton. Bad idea. In fact, it was an awful idea that cost me €239.
I opened a position but forgot to put on the stop loss. I left the room for a moment and came back to see my position had moved miles away from me. I should have just took a red book but I tried to continue trading the race and it went from bad to worse.
Trying to grab a few minutes here and there just doesn't work really and I'll have to cut it out. My concentration was down and I'm pretty disappointed with myself.
It's a real kick in the teeth and it means I'm certain to miss this month's target now. I suppose I should try learn from it so here's another couple of new rules:
1. Always check the stop loss is in place before I start
2. Never leave an open (short term) trade unattended
3. Don't try to 'grab a few minutes' at the computer. If I don't have the time to do a decent session, forget it altogether.
A major setback, but we live and learn.
I came home from work and had 15 minutes to kill before I had to head back out. The laptop was on so I thought I'd just trade a quick race from Kempton. Bad idea. In fact, it was an awful idea that cost me €239.
I opened a position but forgot to put on the stop loss. I left the room for a moment and came back to see my position had moved miles away from me. I should have just took a red book but I tried to continue trading the race and it went from bad to worse.
Trying to grab a few minutes here and there just doesn't work really and I'll have to cut it out. My concentration was down and I'm pretty disappointed with myself.
It's a real kick in the teeth and it means I'm certain to miss this month's target now. I suppose I should try learn from it so here's another couple of new rules:
1. Always check the stop loss is in place before I start
2. Never leave an open (short term) trade unattended
3. Don't try to 'grab a few minutes' at the computer. If I don't have the time to do a decent session, forget it altogether.
A major setback, but we live and learn.
Tuesday, November 23, 2010
Book Review
Finished that book I mentioned before ‘The disciplined trader’, and I’m going to give it a five out of ten.
It started off very promising and it was clear that the author had ‘been there, done that’ with regard to busting banks, losing money and more. I find it refreshing to read a book by a real trader because with some books, you get the feeling that the author doesn’t really trade all that much. This guy lost his car, family and gaff so I was looking forward to reading about his road to recovery and how he pulled himself together and became a disciplined, successful trader. We don’t really get to hear that though.
From about mid-way through the book, he looks into the psychological side of trading but for me, this is where it comes up short. He talks about the memory and energy etc, but gives no real scientific examples or evidence for what he is saying. It gets a bit waffly to be honest, and comes across as one of those self-help power of positive thinking type of books – with no real facts, evidence, or examples to support what he is saying. I do realise that the book was written nearly two decades ago so things like neuroscience and the study of the brain were in their infancy. However, after a while, I found myself ‘scanning’ through the book trying to get through it and get past the waffle.
In the last couple of chapters, he talks about trading and gives some examples of strategies which is fairly interesting and salvages the book somewhat. Perhaps the book needs to be updated for the computer age. It’s probably worth a read but it’s not one of my top ten anyway.
Noel Fehily
I see from Paul Nicholls' Betfair blog that Noel Fehily will be getting the plum Kauto Star ride in the King George. It's a real bummer for Ruby as he wasn't long back after injury but Fehily has been doing pretty well in fairness to him and deserves a chance. Couldn't complain about his ride on Master Minded at the weekend although I must admit that I didn't back it.
Link here: http://betting.betfair.com/horse-racing/paul-nicholls/latest-news/paul-nicholls-exclusive-noel-gets-the-kauto-nod-231110.html
Link here: http://betting.betfair.com/horse-racing/paul-nicholls/latest-news/paul-nicholls-exclusive-noel-gets-the-kauto-nod-231110.html
Sunday, November 21, 2010
Imperial Commander
A decent weekend on the betting front, thanks mainly to Imperial Commander. I put him up as a max bet in the Irish Independent so that was good.
I couldn't believe he was 10/11 - I had him priced up at 8/11 so his SP was a steal. After all, he had 22lbs in hand so I can't see why the layers took him on.
When having a Max bet, it's important to try get a good price and I thought I'd found it when backing in the bookies at 10/11. However I see that the Betfair SP was 2.02 so I probably should have backed on the machine. Still, a win is a win even if it was odds on.
Spent most of the morning preparing a big Sunday roast (leg of lamb) which was absolutely delicious if I may say so myself. I only got to trade the last few races of the day after dinner and it went fine with a very small profit. Still a fair bit behind target though so I'll have to try my best to get some trading sessions before the month ends.
Blogger is having problems with uploading pics today but the profit made was €15.31 and I've posted a pic on the Let's Bet forum.
I couldn't believe he was 10/11 - I had him priced up at 8/11 so his SP was a steal. After all, he had 22lbs in hand so I can't see why the layers took him on.
When having a Max bet, it's important to try get a good price and I thought I'd found it when backing in the bookies at 10/11. However I see that the Betfair SP was 2.02 so I probably should have backed on the machine. Still, a win is a win even if it was odds on.
Spent most of the morning preparing a big Sunday roast (leg of lamb) which was absolutely delicious if I may say so myself. I only got to trade the last few races of the day after dinner and it went fine with a very small profit. Still a fair bit behind target though so I'll have to try my best to get some trading sessions before the month ends.
Blogger is having problems with uploading pics today but the profit made was €15.31 and I've posted a pic on the Let's Bet forum.
Friday, November 19, 2010
2 screen trading
I was trying to hook up my TV to the laptop today to watch a movie and discovered how to use the 2 screen function where you have your regular laptop screen and also a 2nd TV or monitor.
This could prove very useful when trading as I often need multiple screens open but have to tab back and forth to each which is a pain.
You can move your mouse right over to the next screen and it looks pretty cool too! I've been pricing up some monitors and may go with one soon as I think it could help. I've attached a picture where I have two separate Betting Assistant markets open (one on the laptop and one on the TV). These are controlled by the one mouse and both are run from my laptop.
Monitors are a bit more expensive than I expected but there are a few strategies I can think of where it would help to have multiple screens open at once.
This could prove very useful when trading as I often need multiple screens open but have to tab back and forth to each which is a pain.
You can move your mouse right over to the next screen and it looks pretty cool too! I've been pricing up some monitors and may go with one soon as I think it could help. I've attached a picture where I have two separate Betting Assistant markets open (one on the laptop and one on the TV). These are controlled by the one mouse and both are run from my laptop.
Monitors are a bit more expensive than I expected but there are a few strategies I can think of where it would help to have multiple screens open at once.
Monday, November 15, 2010
Real work
Spent most of the weekend in the back garden working on a BBQ area which I hope to use next summer. I should have been trading if I want to start meeting my targets but the weather was fine and with the winter now here, I thought I'd try get it finished while I can.
It was pretty heavy work lifting blocks and putting down cement but it was quite enjoyable and I stuck on the radio and worked away.
Pics can be seen here:
http://www.facebook.com/album.php?ai...0&l=e183cabb4f
All I have to do now is paint it tomorrow and add some flowers to brighten it up. Roll on the summer!
It's been quite some time since I done some 'real' work (that is, not sitting in front of a computer) and my body aches but it was nice to be outdoors.
On the trading competition front, I got stung with the price of Gold. The Chinese are talking about upping interest rates and this has partly reversed the buying of commodities although there are other reasons too.
Bloody Chinese eh? Definitely not ordering a chow mein tonight!
Anyway, it knocks me back down a bit in the comp. I'm still holding quite a bit of Gold and I really need to to staring rising again if I want to get into contention for a prize (see below pic).
Not sure when I'll get to trade on Betfair to be honest - my wife's away in England at a training course so I'm minding our daughter on my own. Maybe I'll get some done this weekend but I'm getting anxious about going back to it as I really want to meet some targets.
It was pretty heavy work lifting blocks and putting down cement but it was quite enjoyable and I stuck on the radio and worked away.
Pics can be seen here:
http://www.facebook.com/album.php?ai...0&l=e183cabb4f
All I have to do now is paint it tomorrow and add some flowers to brighten it up. Roll on the summer!
It's been quite some time since I done some 'real' work (that is, not sitting in front of a computer) and my body aches but it was nice to be outdoors.
On the trading competition front, I got stung with the price of Gold. The Chinese are talking about upping interest rates and this has partly reversed the buying of commodities although there are other reasons too.
Bloody Chinese eh? Definitely not ordering a chow mein tonight!
Anyway, it knocks me back down a bit in the comp. I'm still holding quite a bit of Gold and I really need to to staring rising again if I want to get into contention for a prize (see below pic).
Not sure when I'll get to trade on Betfair to be honest - my wife's away in England at a training course so I'm minding our daughter on my own. Maybe I'll get some done this weekend but I'm getting anxious about going back to it as I really want to meet some targets.
Thursday, November 11, 2010
In the top ten
Not sure if I mentioned this before but I entered a trading competition with Market Spreads (the parent company of Sports Spreads).
I'm glad to report that I'm in the top ten (see screenshot). The competition started about a month ago and ends in December. Basically, you are given €5,000 to trade as you please.
This is a great way to learn how to trade without risking your money. The fact that you have a goal (prizemoney) makes it more real than paper trading and I'm happy with my progress.
I've been mainly trading the overall FTSE, DOW, DAX but also some commodities like Gold. I've bought some Oil yesterday which is doing OK so fingers crossed.
My bank is now 147% of what it was which is fairly modest compared to the competition leaders but there's plenty of time left.
I think I'll look out for more competitions like this as it's a great way to learn. Funny enough, the table below is not in proper order so I'm actually fifth rather than ninth place:
I'm glad to report that I'm in the top ten (see screenshot). The competition started about a month ago and ends in December. Basically, you are given €5,000 to trade as you please.
This is a great way to learn how to trade without risking your money. The fact that you have a goal (prizemoney) makes it more real than paper trading and I'm happy with my progress.
I've been mainly trading the overall FTSE, DOW, DAX but also some commodities like Gold. I've bought some Oil yesterday which is doing OK so fingers crossed.
My bank is now 147% of what it was which is fairly modest compared to the competition leaders but there's plenty of time left.
I think I'll look out for more competitions like this as it's a great way to learn. Funny enough, the table below is not in proper order so I'm actually fifth rather than ninth place:
Wednesday, November 10, 2010
Too good to be true
Not sure if any other traders get this feeling now and then, but sometimes when I’m trading and picking up easy money off the table, it feels too good to be true and I can’t help thinking that it’s all about to go downhill. It’s harder than it seems to get these thoughts out of your brain but it’s something that needs to be overcome.
When I’m trading well, it feels good but there is always a niggling doubt that things are going to go belly up and that easy money is simply not possible, certainly for a sustained period of time. However, I’m finally coming around to realising that sometimes it is, and I’m trying to change my mindset on this issue.
For various reasons (sometimes cultural, religious, moral etc) many people don’t feel that they deserve easy money when it comes to them and they put a lot of psychological barriers in the way. Even when it’s on the table in front of them, they won’t pick it up. People who are lacking confidence in themselves will put good trades down to luck - and when a bad trade comes along, they almost get a masochistic pleasure that the market has twarthed them. It confirms the low self belief they have in themselves as a trader – that ‘someone else’ is better, more clued in and somehow more deserving. They get a ‘told you so’ feeling about themselves and it compounds the negativity they have and their ability to make money in the markets.
I’ve been in similar situations myself where I felt that the market has beat me up. The outcomes are not always pretty – there have been times when I’ve started to stake erratically following a loss in a pathetic attempt to somehow ‘get back’ at the market. This, of course, will eventually lead to a bust bank which, in turn, will confirm your own belief that you are a bad trader. I’ve had times where a small loss has got bigger through chasing, then bigger, and bigger again - and I’ve chased to the point where the stakes don’t really matter anymore. It seems like utter madness to look back on. But when you are in that frame of mind, you don’t really care because you almost feel that’s what you deserve.
Do this often enough, however, and you will end up on the scrapheap of failed traders with wasted money, time and self-esteem discarded along the way. The funny thing is, most of these failed traders have lost the battle with themselves, rather than the market. It’s easy to say that these traders should ‘snap out of it’ but I’ve been down that road and you will always come up with an excuse for not listening to the voice of reason. Eventually, you will lose enough banks to either (a) cop yourself on and work on the mental side of trading or (b) exit the game, having lost a lot of money (and in some cases, family and friends). I feel lucky to have chosen option (a) but there have been many times when I’ve been close to packing it in.
So why do we feel like this sometimes and do these things to ourselves? I think it’s down to memory and not being able to let go of past experiences – in this case, past losses. A loss hurts much more than a gain in trading (and generally speaking, people will let their losses run much higher than their gains) so when they see their figures starting to go red, all those negative feelings and memories come flooding back. These negative feelings can be overwhelming and make some people feel worthless. It’s amazing, because an otherwise rational person can start acting in a crazy manner as soon as this rush of negativity is released around his body. Often, the trader will go on to lose a packet through chasing and this will instil yet even more fear in him the next time a trade goes red.
On the opposite side, a green position can be good but you don’t enjoy it as much as you should - as you are worried that it will turn bad. So we trade out for a small profit (and then watch the market go sky high in our direction!). This is frustrating and partly the reason why bad trades stick much much deeper in the psyche than good ones.
When we are in a bad trade, we must try to step outside the situation as I explained before, and almost be an independent observer to what is going on. When the bad days come (and they will!), we find it hard to switch off this flood of negative emotion, fear and worry.
Of course, all of this is easier said than done but that’s why it is estimated that over 90% of traders fail. It’s my guess that these failed traders are not terrible market readers – they are simply bad at managing emotions.
Then we have some good days…
Instead of patting ourselves on the back for a job well done, we get nervous and feel we don’t deserve it. For whatever reason, we just can’t possibly believe that we are good traders. Luck, randomness and other thoughts come into our heads as excuses for our good trades. We always think there is ‘someone else’ or the ‘big players’ in the market that deserve the money - but not us mere small fry. We got lucky today but will never sustain it. But the reality is this; little old you is just as entitled to that money as anyone. There are times in the markets when it is just easy to make money. Other times are hard. Simple as that. That applies to traders with banks of 100 quid or 100 grand. When the easy times come, don’t put up barriers or excuses, take it while its going and enjoy your trading. Sometimes, it’s easy. Sometimes there is such thing as a free lunch.
In a book I’m reading, ‘The disciplined trader’, the author talks about an experiment done some years back where a guy stood on a busy street corner with a sign saying ‘Free money here, just ask’. There was no catch – if you asked for some money, he’d give it to you. Thousands of people passed him by that day but only a small number actually went up and availed of his offer. Nearly everyone who passed by couldn’t, or wouldn’t take the free money. This is a perfect example of what I’m talking about above. Our memories tell us that there is no such thing as a free lunch and there has to be a catch. In the real world, we know that no-one hands out free money so we convince ourselves that this has to be a scam or a trick. Our past memories of these type of events won’t allow our present mind to try something new or accept the situation for what it is. We think we know better. Besides, we have grown up believing that no-one deserves money for nothing and that hard work is the only way. We simply can’t accept that there is free money out there and we walk away.
Trading is all about breaking down the barriers and changing the way you view work, money and life (for the time you are active in the markets at least). The general ‘rules’ of this world we’ve grown up to believe don’t often apply in the trading game and this presents both opportunity and pitfalls. The profit you can make from trading is virtually limitless – but so too are the losses. I can’t think of any other job like that in the ‘real’ world and that’s why the rules of the trading game are different from the real world. It’s also what makes it (sometimes) devastatingly appealing.
I don’t want to come across as too philosophical here as I’m certainly no expert - but I think there are a few things that traders, including myself, must realise to become successful. These are just my own thoughts by the way, feel free to disagree – but here’s my take on it:
***
Sorry about the ramblings but I like to get these things written down – it helps me think more clearly going forward. Thoughts and comments, be they good or bad, are most welcome!
As regards my own trading, I haven’t been doing any lately due to work but I’m off over the weekend including Monday so will definitely try to get a few hours in at the very least – a full day at it would be nice if possible so I’ll report back in a few days with how I get on.
When I’m trading well, it feels good but there is always a niggling doubt that things are going to go belly up and that easy money is simply not possible, certainly for a sustained period of time. However, I’m finally coming around to realising that sometimes it is, and I’m trying to change my mindset on this issue.
For various reasons (sometimes cultural, religious, moral etc) many people don’t feel that they deserve easy money when it comes to them and they put a lot of psychological barriers in the way. Even when it’s on the table in front of them, they won’t pick it up. People who are lacking confidence in themselves will put good trades down to luck - and when a bad trade comes along, they almost get a masochistic pleasure that the market has twarthed them. It confirms the low self belief they have in themselves as a trader – that ‘someone else’ is better, more clued in and somehow more deserving. They get a ‘told you so’ feeling about themselves and it compounds the negativity they have and their ability to make money in the markets.
I’ve been in similar situations myself where I felt that the market has beat me up. The outcomes are not always pretty – there have been times when I’ve started to stake erratically following a loss in a pathetic attempt to somehow ‘get back’ at the market. This, of course, will eventually lead to a bust bank which, in turn, will confirm your own belief that you are a bad trader. I’ve had times where a small loss has got bigger through chasing, then bigger, and bigger again - and I’ve chased to the point where the stakes don’t really matter anymore. It seems like utter madness to look back on. But when you are in that frame of mind, you don’t really care because you almost feel that’s what you deserve.
Do this often enough, however, and you will end up on the scrapheap of failed traders with wasted money, time and self-esteem discarded along the way. The funny thing is, most of these failed traders have lost the battle with themselves, rather than the market. It’s easy to say that these traders should ‘snap out of it’ but I’ve been down that road and you will always come up with an excuse for not listening to the voice of reason. Eventually, you will lose enough banks to either (a) cop yourself on and work on the mental side of trading or (b) exit the game, having lost a lot of money (and in some cases, family and friends). I feel lucky to have chosen option (a) but there have been many times when I’ve been close to packing it in.
So why do we feel like this sometimes and do these things to ourselves? I think it’s down to memory and not being able to let go of past experiences – in this case, past losses. A loss hurts much more than a gain in trading (and generally speaking, people will let their losses run much higher than their gains) so when they see their figures starting to go red, all those negative feelings and memories come flooding back. These negative feelings can be overwhelming and make some people feel worthless. It’s amazing, because an otherwise rational person can start acting in a crazy manner as soon as this rush of negativity is released around his body. Often, the trader will go on to lose a packet through chasing and this will instil yet even more fear in him the next time a trade goes red.
On the opposite side, a green position can be good but you don’t enjoy it as much as you should - as you are worried that it will turn bad. So we trade out for a small profit (and then watch the market go sky high in our direction!). This is frustrating and partly the reason why bad trades stick much much deeper in the psyche than good ones.
When we are in a bad trade, we must try to step outside the situation as I explained before, and almost be an independent observer to what is going on. When the bad days come (and they will!), we find it hard to switch off this flood of negative emotion, fear and worry.
Of course, all of this is easier said than done but that’s why it is estimated that over 90% of traders fail. It’s my guess that these failed traders are not terrible market readers – they are simply bad at managing emotions.
Then we have some good days…
Instead of patting ourselves on the back for a job well done, we get nervous and feel we don’t deserve it. For whatever reason, we just can’t possibly believe that we are good traders. Luck, randomness and other thoughts come into our heads as excuses for our good trades. We always think there is ‘someone else’ or the ‘big players’ in the market that deserve the money - but not us mere small fry. We got lucky today but will never sustain it. But the reality is this; little old you is just as entitled to that money as anyone. There are times in the markets when it is just easy to make money. Other times are hard. Simple as that. That applies to traders with banks of 100 quid or 100 grand. When the easy times come, don’t put up barriers or excuses, take it while its going and enjoy your trading. Sometimes, it’s easy. Sometimes there is such thing as a free lunch.
In a book I’m reading, ‘The disciplined trader’, the author talks about an experiment done some years back where a guy stood on a busy street corner with a sign saying ‘Free money here, just ask’. There was no catch – if you asked for some money, he’d give it to you. Thousands of people passed him by that day but only a small number actually went up and availed of his offer. Nearly everyone who passed by couldn’t, or wouldn’t take the free money. This is a perfect example of what I’m talking about above. Our memories tell us that there is no such thing as a free lunch and there has to be a catch. In the real world, we know that no-one hands out free money so we convince ourselves that this has to be a scam or a trick. Our past memories of these type of events won’t allow our present mind to try something new or accept the situation for what it is. We think we know better. Besides, we have grown up believing that no-one deserves money for nothing and that hard work is the only way. We simply can’t accept that there is free money out there and we walk away.
Trading is all about breaking down the barriers and changing the way you view work, money and life (for the time you are active in the markets at least). The general ‘rules’ of this world we’ve grown up to believe don’t often apply in the trading game and this presents both opportunity and pitfalls. The profit you can make from trading is virtually limitless – but so too are the losses. I can’t think of any other job like that in the ‘real’ world and that’s why the rules of the trading game are different from the real world. It’s also what makes it (sometimes) devastatingly appealing.
I don’t want to come across as too philosophical here as I’m certainly no expert - but I think there are a few things that traders, including myself, must realise to become successful. These are just my own thoughts by the way, feel free to disagree – but here’s my take on it:
- It is possible to make money from trading. Most people who fail are probably not really bad market readers at all – it’s just that they can’t handle the big rushes of negativity that invariably come quite often.
- You deserve success as much as any ‘expert’ or ‘big player’ in the market.
- Sometimes trading is very hard – but other times it’s quite easy. We can all accept the fact that trading can be hard – but won’t seem to accept the opposite at times.
- Your memories of bad trades are much stronger than your memories of good trades. Realise this and try not to panic when a trade goes bad. When you are looking at a red book, think about this fact and recognise the feelings you have. Don’t become paralysed and miss your stop loss. This will lead to chasing later on. You’ve called it wrong which always painful - but make sure your bank lives to see another day.
- Opportunities for profit often pop up unexpectedly from nowhere. The rules in this game are not like in the ‘real’ world. Sometimes there’s money on the table there for the taking. Free money basically. We often put up barriers in our head and won’t pick it up: (how come someone else hasn’t spotted it, it’s too good to be true, why has no-one else made that trade etc.). Take the market for what it is; a head-case that sometimes gives away money. To paraphrase the shampoo ad: You are worth it.
- As great as all the above sounds, it’s a lot easier said than done. But that’s probably why most traders fail. Recognising that the psychological end of trading is harder than the actual trading itself is one of the steps to becoming a better trader.
***
Sorry about the ramblings but I like to get these things written down – it helps me think more clearly going forward. Thoughts and comments, be they good or bad, are most welcome!
As regards my own trading, I haven’t been doing any lately due to work but I’m off over the weekend including Monday so will definitely try to get a few hours in at the very least – a full day at it would be nice if possible so I’ll report back in a few days with how I get on.
Monday, November 1, 2010
October Review
A very good month overall with the bank increasing by more than €500 to a bit over 2K. As usual, the main problem was finding the time to trade and I’ve a feeling that November will be no different.
I’ve a very busy week at work and have to work some weekends so realistically, it could be the following weekend before I get a chance to trade. I'm also trying to do some DIY in the house and garden too on my days off.
This can be hugely frustrating as you can be raring to go but just don’t have the time due to other commitments. I’ll try grab as much time as I can at it on my weekends off and maybe the odd Friday evening meeting.
I’ve also decided to review how I try to meet my targets. At the start of this challenge, I worked out how much my bank would be each month if I increased it by 5%. I started in May so this meant that I hoped that the bank would be €1340 by the end of October. Because I’ve already passed this figure, I don’t really have a target.
Therefore, I’m going to review the target at the end of each month and the new target will be 5% of the rolling bank.
The bank currently stands at €2443.70 so five percent of this is €122.19. So the target for the end of November is €2443.70 + €122.19 = €2565.89
I’m not quite sure I will meet this target as I won’t be trading as much as I’d like but I’ll give it a lash and see.
I’ve a very busy week at work and have to work some weekends so realistically, it could be the following weekend before I get a chance to trade. I'm also trying to do some DIY in the house and garden too on my days off.
This can be hugely frustrating as you can be raring to go but just don’t have the time due to other commitments. I’ll try grab as much time as I can at it on my weekends off and maybe the odd Friday evening meeting.
I’ve also decided to review how I try to meet my targets. At the start of this challenge, I worked out how much my bank would be each month if I increased it by 5%. I started in May so this meant that I hoped that the bank would be €1340 by the end of October. Because I’ve already passed this figure, I don’t really have a target.
Therefore, I’m going to review the target at the end of each month and the new target will be 5% of the rolling bank.
The bank currently stands at €2443.70 so five percent of this is €122.19. So the target for the end of November is €2443.70 + €122.19 = €2565.89
I’m not quite sure I will meet this target as I won’t be trading as much as I’d like but I’ll give it a lash and see.
Sunday, October 24, 2010
Oh dear...
Have a read of this from Peter Webb's blog:
http://www.betangel.com/blog_wp/2010/10/23/fat-fingers/
Unreal stuff. Someone's account absolutely destroyed there.
http://www.betangel.com/blog_wp/2010/10/23/fat-fingers/
Unreal stuff. Someone's account absolutely destroyed there.
Just started...
reading The Disciplined Trader which arrived the other day and I have to say that I'm enjoying it immensely. When I realised that it written over 20 years ago, I felt dissappointed but most of the themes are still quite current and I'm getting a bit out of it. He deals with a lot of psychological aspects of trading which is something I enjoy. The guy who wrote the book is a trader himself and, rather refreshingly, admits that he once lost his house, car, missus and everything he owned due to trading - even filing for bankruptcy. It's nice to see someone be honest that has hit rock bottom and came out of it. So many trading books seem to be written in that positive, self help American style way and I sometimes doubt whether the authors are actually proper traders. Anyhow, so far so good with this book although I've only read a couple of chapters.
With regard to the trading, it might be a while before I get some decent sessions in. I've decided to spend this weekend working in the back garden (making a patio) before the winter gets in. I've promised the missus I'd do it for years and I really want to get it done before the cold weather. I've had a look at my work schedule too which is very busy so I don't really know when I'll get a full day at the computer again - it may be a week or two if I'm lucky.
This is one of the frustrating things about part time trading. You can read up about it in the evening and be raring to go with the money at the ready but you often just don't get time when you have a full time job and a family to look after. If I nab a few hours here or there I'll post it up.
With regard to the trading, it might be a while before I get some decent sessions in. I've decided to spend this weekend working in the back garden (making a patio) before the winter gets in. I've promised the missus I'd do it for years and I really want to get it done before the cold weather. I've had a look at my work schedule too which is very busy so I don't really know when I'll get a full day at the computer again - it may be a week or two if I'm lucky.
This is one of the frustrating things about part time trading. You can read up about it in the evening and be raring to go with the money at the ready but you often just don't get time when you have a full time job and a family to look after. If I nab a few hours here or there I'll post it up.
Saturday, October 23, 2010
Saturday
Was hoping to get some trading done today but got stuck into some work in the back garden and decided to stick it out while the weather was good. May try get to the computer on Sunday or Monday if I get time.
Friday, October 22, 2010
Good and bad luck at Dundalk
A very good day overall with a profit of €126.40 which is very pleasing indeed. Dundalk was a bit mad and one race went in running while I was talking to my daughter which meant I had to get out for a loss of seventy quid.
On the other hand, Fortuna must have been looking down on me as a later trade there went extremely well, earning me fifty quid. I got matched then the price came in quite a lot. Even though I was scalping, I let it ride and closed out for a nice profit.
An up and down evening but a satisfactory one nonetheless.
***
The Challenge: to increase my trading bank by 5% per month.
The story so far...
Starting bank: €1,000 (beginning of May 2010)
Target for end October: €1,340.10
Today’s opening bank: €2,017.30
Today’s closing bank: €2,143.70
Today's profit/loss: +€126.40
Today's turnover: €37,676.83
On the other hand, Fortuna must have been looking down on me as a later trade there went extremely well, earning me fifty quid. I got matched then the price came in quite a lot. Even though I was scalping, I let it ride and closed out for a nice profit.
An up and down evening but a satisfactory one nonetheless.
***
The Challenge: to increase my trading bank by 5% per month.
The story so far...
Starting bank: €1,000 (beginning of May 2010)
Target for end October: €1,340.10
Today’s opening bank: €2,017.30
Today’s closing bank: €2,143.70
Today's profit/loss: +€126.40
Today's turnover: €37,676.83
Wednesday, October 20, 2010
Clearing the deck
I’ve had a few days away from trading due to work so this has given me some time in the evenings to think about my trading challenge; where it’s going well, and where it’s going bad. I guess the fact that the bank has passed the 2K mark also makes it a good time for review.
Even though I’m ahead of targets set at the start of the challenge and doing quite well, there are a few niggling issues that I want to nail on the head before I move forward further. Despite the profit levels, I’ve one or two things bugging me and I’ve decided to put them on paper and address them as I’m not entirely happy with my trading as a whole. I think I’ve become more erratic and have started to enjoy the good days too much. Maybe they got to me and I’ve come to expect them. When I don’t have one, I’m finding myself overly-disappointed. At one time, a profit of twenty quid for the day would have been fine but now I’m getting a little greedy - leading to chasing and in-running trading on occasion. This has to be brought under control as protecting my capital (keeping in the game) should be my first priority. If I keep to these principles, the bank should grow safely (albeit slowly) and over time I should be successful.
I’ve went back through my records, my blog, and my p&l with a fine tooth comb to see what I can find and I’ve noted down a number of changes that need to take place. Most relate to discipline and staking.
Being honest, my staking has become haphazard (especially as the bank grew) and I’m probably risking way more than I should on certain trades. When I started this, I would always trade in ‘tick sizes’ and I need to get back to doing this. I would always have a certain amount that I was prepared to lose on each trade and I’d stick to it. Lately, I’ve let this lapse.
For example, I notice last week that I opened a trade with €200 on a horse priced 1.51 to back. This is fine and the trade went well as I layed it again at 1.50. Nothing wrong there.
However, in the following race, there was a horse priced 2.14 and I opened a trade, again using €200 as the stake. This is a problem.
On the first trade, the prices move in increments of 1% (1.51, 1.52, 1.53 etc) whereas in the second trade, the prices are moving in increments of 2% (2.14, 2.16, 2.18).
This is because between 2.0 and 3.0 the move in twos, whereas prices below it move in ticks of one. There are a number of key prices on Betfair you need to be aware of when trading where the increments are different: 2.0, 3.0, 4.0, 6.0, 10.0, 20.0, 30.0, 50.0, 100.0
What does this mean? Well effectively, I wasn’t managing my risk. On the first trade, I would potentially be losing €2 every time the price moved away from me. This is fine as long as I expect that. On the second trade however, I would be potentially losing €4 for every tick the price moved away from me (as the price increments are in twos). It’s not acceptable to take double the risk (on a whim really).
This is something I’ve let slip lately so I’m going to address it. Firstly, I’m never going to risk more than 1% of my bank (to the nearest thousand) on any given trade. So at the moment, I wont let myself lose more than twenty quid. Generally, I set my stop loss for ten ticks away so if a horse was trading at 1.5, I should use €200 stakes for that trade. If the trade went wrong and drifted ten ticks away from me, I would lose €20 if the horse went on to win. If the horse went on to lose, the book would be settled at zero. Of course, I don’t always let it drift ten ticks away, I’d often get out earlier for a much smaller loss – but setting the stop at this point means I can be absolutely certain that €20 is the most I can lose on any given trade. Hopefully, that can be something I can accept psychologically as it’s pre defined and a set amount. Lately, I’ve been trading where the potential loss has varied, often going into the hundreds. Not good.
I’ve printed off a chart for the stakes I should use for each price (it gets smaller as the prices increase) and I’m vowing to stick to it. If, over time, I feel confident that I should increase stakes a little, I’ll do so – but will still keep in mind the price increments and how it affects potential loss.
Knowing exactly how much I may lose on any given bet (and knowing that it’s only 1% of the bank should help my discipline issues and there is no need to go in-running hopefully. I can accept a loss of €20 and move on.
The downside is that I may find my bank growth slow down a little as I’ve been using far too big stakes lately on certain trades. Some of these trades reaped nice rewards but the downside was that I was tempted to chase losses (as bad trades cost me dearly too).
The other thing I want to combat is over-trading – trading for the sake of some action, rather than waiting until the market conditions are right. This is a lot harder than it sounds! It can get very boring watching a market and sometimes you feel that you are missing out if you don’t open a position. However, I’m making a vow to overcome those urges and will sit it out if conditions don’t match my criteria. It’s best to trade rarely but very well, rather than trade moderately and often. I know that I have to turn over my money as much as I can to churn a profit but the focus will have to be on quality rather than quantity going forward.
Another thing I’m going to do is review my targets but I’ll wait until the end of the month for this. At the start, I hoped to earn 5% per month and set my targets as such. I was making more than this but left the targets alone. Rather than plug away rather aimlessly, it would make sense to re-set my target at the end of each month, aiming for 5% of the rolling figure – rather than the figures I produced at the start of the challenge which have already been met.
Regarding trading this weekend, I hope to get some done on Friday evening, Saturday daytime and Monday daytime. I may trade a little on Sunday but I want to make sure I spend some time with my family over the bank-holiday too so I’ll see how it goes.
Even though I’m ahead of targets set at the start of the challenge and doing quite well, there are a few niggling issues that I want to nail on the head before I move forward further. Despite the profit levels, I’ve one or two things bugging me and I’ve decided to put them on paper and address them as I’m not entirely happy with my trading as a whole. I think I’ve become more erratic and have started to enjoy the good days too much. Maybe they got to me and I’ve come to expect them. When I don’t have one, I’m finding myself overly-disappointed. At one time, a profit of twenty quid for the day would have been fine but now I’m getting a little greedy - leading to chasing and in-running trading on occasion. This has to be brought under control as protecting my capital (keeping in the game) should be my first priority. If I keep to these principles, the bank should grow safely (albeit slowly) and over time I should be successful.
I’ve went back through my records, my blog, and my p&l with a fine tooth comb to see what I can find and I’ve noted down a number of changes that need to take place. Most relate to discipline and staking.
Being honest, my staking has become haphazard (especially as the bank grew) and I’m probably risking way more than I should on certain trades. When I started this, I would always trade in ‘tick sizes’ and I need to get back to doing this. I would always have a certain amount that I was prepared to lose on each trade and I’d stick to it. Lately, I’ve let this lapse.
For example, I notice last week that I opened a trade with €200 on a horse priced 1.51 to back. This is fine and the trade went well as I layed it again at 1.50. Nothing wrong there.
However, in the following race, there was a horse priced 2.14 and I opened a trade, again using €200 as the stake. This is a problem.
On the first trade, the prices move in increments of 1% (1.51, 1.52, 1.53 etc) whereas in the second trade, the prices are moving in increments of 2% (2.14, 2.16, 2.18).
This is because between 2.0 and 3.0 the move in twos, whereas prices below it move in ticks of one. There are a number of key prices on Betfair you need to be aware of when trading where the increments are different: 2.0, 3.0, 4.0, 6.0, 10.0, 20.0, 30.0, 50.0, 100.0
What does this mean? Well effectively, I wasn’t managing my risk. On the first trade, I would potentially be losing €2 every time the price moved away from me. This is fine as long as I expect that. On the second trade however, I would be potentially losing €4 for every tick the price moved away from me (as the price increments are in twos). It’s not acceptable to take double the risk (on a whim really).
This is something I’ve let slip lately so I’m going to address it. Firstly, I’m never going to risk more than 1% of my bank (to the nearest thousand) on any given trade. So at the moment, I wont let myself lose more than twenty quid. Generally, I set my stop loss for ten ticks away so if a horse was trading at 1.5, I should use €200 stakes for that trade. If the trade went wrong and drifted ten ticks away from me, I would lose €20 if the horse went on to win. If the horse went on to lose, the book would be settled at zero. Of course, I don’t always let it drift ten ticks away, I’d often get out earlier for a much smaller loss – but setting the stop at this point means I can be absolutely certain that €20 is the most I can lose on any given trade. Hopefully, that can be something I can accept psychologically as it’s pre defined and a set amount. Lately, I’ve been trading where the potential loss has varied, often going into the hundreds. Not good.
I’ve printed off a chart for the stakes I should use for each price (it gets smaller as the prices increase) and I’m vowing to stick to it. If, over time, I feel confident that I should increase stakes a little, I’ll do so – but will still keep in mind the price increments and how it affects potential loss.
Knowing exactly how much I may lose on any given bet (and knowing that it’s only 1% of the bank should help my discipline issues and there is no need to go in-running hopefully. I can accept a loss of €20 and move on.
The downside is that I may find my bank growth slow down a little as I’ve been using far too big stakes lately on certain trades. Some of these trades reaped nice rewards but the downside was that I was tempted to chase losses (as bad trades cost me dearly too).
The other thing I want to combat is over-trading – trading for the sake of some action, rather than waiting until the market conditions are right. This is a lot harder than it sounds! It can get very boring watching a market and sometimes you feel that you are missing out if you don’t open a position. However, I’m making a vow to overcome those urges and will sit it out if conditions don’t match my criteria. It’s best to trade rarely but very well, rather than trade moderately and often. I know that I have to turn over my money as much as I can to churn a profit but the focus will have to be on quality rather than quantity going forward.
Another thing I’m going to do is review my targets but I’ll wait until the end of the month for this. At the start, I hoped to earn 5% per month and set my targets as such. I was making more than this but left the targets alone. Rather than plug away rather aimlessly, it would make sense to re-set my target at the end of each month, aiming for 5% of the rolling figure – rather than the figures I produced at the start of the challenge which have already been met.
Regarding trading this weekend, I hope to get some done on Friday evening, Saturday daytime and Monday daytime. I may trade a little on Sunday but I want to make sure I spend some time with my family over the bank-holiday too so I’ll see how it goes.
Tuesday, October 19, 2010
Just finished....
The psychology of trading by Brett N. Steenbarger.
As mentioned before, I'm trying to read up as much as possible on trading so I'll give a quick review of each book here when I'm done.
I'd give this one a seven out of ten. Basically, this guy is a therapist by profession but also trades in his spare time. He uses stories about his patients' troubles and relates them to the problems we face in the markets.
Some of it was fascinating and I found his theme very interesting that there is more than one person (or trader) inside of us, each trying to express himself. You have the disciplined guy, the wreckless guy, the gambler etc. Each is trying for control of your mouse and you need to let the right one through.
One of the downsides is that it was quite Americanised. Not sure if I can explain what that is but most of his patients for example, all seemed to have problems that stemmed back to their youth, and blaming the parents was a common theme. That kind of crap they go on with bores me sometimes and they don't seem to have the 'get on with it' attitude we have over in Ireland.
To be honest, some of these people that go to therapy over there should just cop themselves on, simple as that. Those are the negatives but I enjoyed most of it.
He describes how we need to become our own 'internal observer' and this theme is something similar I wrote about before - about stepping away from the situation and kind of observing what you are doing from 'afar' .
It probably could have been shortened but overall, it was a pretty good read.
I've started reading High Performance Trading: 35 Practical Strategies and Techniques To Enhance Your Trading Psychology and Performance
So far so good. I've read some other books on the topic and will try review when I get time.
Last night, I ordered The Disciplined Trader so I await that one in the post.
Not trying to say that we can learn everything from books - far from it - but I usually find a couple of useful bits of info in each and definitely feel I've learned more since I started reading up as much as I can.
As mentioned before, I'm trying to read up as much as possible on trading so I'll give a quick review of each book here when I'm done.
I'd give this one a seven out of ten. Basically, this guy is a therapist by profession but also trades in his spare time. He uses stories about his patients' troubles and relates them to the problems we face in the markets.
Some of it was fascinating and I found his theme very interesting that there is more than one person (or trader) inside of us, each trying to express himself. You have the disciplined guy, the wreckless guy, the gambler etc. Each is trying for control of your mouse and you need to let the right one through.
One of the downsides is that it was quite Americanised. Not sure if I can explain what that is but most of his patients for example, all seemed to have problems that stemmed back to their youth, and blaming the parents was a common theme. That kind of crap they go on with bores me sometimes and they don't seem to have the 'get on with it' attitude we have over in Ireland.
To be honest, some of these people that go to therapy over there should just cop themselves on, simple as that. Those are the negatives but I enjoyed most of it.
He describes how we need to become our own 'internal observer' and this theme is something similar I wrote about before - about stepping away from the situation and kind of observing what you are doing from 'afar' .
It probably could have been shortened but overall, it was a pretty good read.
I've started reading High Performance Trading: 35 Practical Strategies and Techniques To Enhance Your Trading Psychology and Performance
So far so good. I've read some other books on the topic and will try review when I get time.
Last night, I ordered The Disciplined Trader so I await that one in the post.
Not trying to say that we can learn everything from books - far from it - but I usually find a couple of useful bits of info in each and definitely feel I've learned more since I started reading up as much as I can.
Sunday, October 17, 2010
Stressful day
Although I made a profit today, it was quite stressful and I'm disappointed with myself over two races in particular which I chased my losses in-running. In the last at bath, I left €300 exposed before I snapped out of it and reddened up the book for a loss of €71. It was a stupid thing to do and could have ruined some great recent days.
It's weird but losses seem harder to take for me after I've had a great day. This is something I'm going to have to think about more and work on.
I got lucky in the last race of the day but to be honest, I'm not happy about that either! The bumper at Naas went off early. This is just not acceptable. The market went into dissarray and I had some open positions. I think people panicked a little and exited their positions. I waited about ten seconds and then greened up for sixty quid. While I made money in that race, it was just lucky money really and I cant see how these things are allowed to happen in Ireland.
On a positive note, the horse that won, Raise The Beat, is trained by Colm Murphy and owned by one of the the Winning Ways syndicates.
I part own a horse with these (as yet unraced) so I'm delight for the lads with their win and it's good to see Colm get some good winners lately.
The other positive is that the bank is now over double what it was at the start which is well ahead of target.
A good day on paper but in my heart, I know I was lucky and I'm disappointed with my indiscipline. I also over traded a little, taking positions just to get some action rather than waiting until conditions were ideal. So a weird day really that I'm not entirely happy about, despite the profit made.
***
The Challenge: to increase my trading bank by 5% per month.
The story so far...
Starting bank: €1,000 (beginning of May 2010)
Target for end October: €1,340.10
Today’s opening bank: €1960.24
Today’s closing bank: €2,017.30
Today's profit/loss: +€57.06
Today's turnover: €78,496.73
It's weird but losses seem harder to take for me after I've had a great day. This is something I'm going to have to think about more and work on.
I got lucky in the last race of the day but to be honest, I'm not happy about that either! The bumper at Naas went off early. This is just not acceptable. The market went into dissarray and I had some open positions. I think people panicked a little and exited their positions. I waited about ten seconds and then greened up for sixty quid. While I made money in that race, it was just lucky money really and I cant see how these things are allowed to happen in Ireland.
On a positive note, the horse that won, Raise The Beat, is trained by Colm Murphy and owned by one of the the Winning Ways syndicates.
I part own a horse with these (as yet unraced) so I'm delight for the lads with their win and it's good to see Colm get some good winners lately.
The other positive is that the bank is now over double what it was at the start which is well ahead of target.
A good day on paper but in my heart, I know I was lucky and I'm disappointed with my indiscipline. I also over traded a little, taking positions just to get some action rather than waiting until conditions were ideal. So a weird day really that I'm not entirely happy about, despite the profit made.
***
The Challenge: to increase my trading bank by 5% per month.
The story so far...
Starting bank: €1,000 (beginning of May 2010)
Target for end October: €1,340.10
Today’s opening bank: €1960.24
Today’s closing bank: €2,017.30
Today's profit/loss: +€57.06
Today's turnover: €78,496.73
Saturday, October 16, 2010
Best day yet
An absolutely brilliant day, my best ever as part of this challenge. The profit was €271.40 and I turned over a whopping 90K 
.
I don't want to get ahead of myself or get over excited about a great day - but I'm wondering if it's time to review my targets. At the start of the challenge, I set myself a challenge of increasing my bank by 5%. This was a fairly conservative figure but I didn't want to set it so high that I couldn't meet it. I'm well ahead of target so perhaps it's time to change the target to 10% per month. Had I started off with a 10% target, I would have been hoping that the bank was around €1600 at the end of Ocotber and I've surpassed that now.
I'll plug away with the current targets until the end of the month and review then.
As my bank grows, I'm finding numerous advantages, not least that I can trade in bigger sums. I also find that I can get in early 2,3 or even 4 races ahead at the key prices. Of course I set an automatic tick offset and stop loss when doing this but it's proving fruitful so far getting ahead of the queue. With a smaller bank, this is not really possible as you need your capital to trade.
I feel pretty darn good about today so I've treated myself to a nice bottle of Châteauneuf-du-Pape to celebrate a good days work.
***
The Challenge: to increase my trading bank by 5% per month.
The story so far...
Starting bank: €1,000 (beginning of May 2010)
Target for end October: €1,340.10
Today’s opening bank: €1,688.86
Today’s closing bank: €1960.24
Today's profit/loss: +€271.40
Today's turnover: €91,608.21
.
I don't want to get ahead of myself or get over excited about a great day - but I'm wondering if it's time to review my targets. At the start of the challenge, I set myself a challenge of increasing my bank by 5%. This was a fairly conservative figure but I didn't want to set it so high that I couldn't meet it. I'm well ahead of target so perhaps it's time to change the target to 10% per month. Had I started off with a 10% target, I would have been hoping that the bank was around €1600 at the end of Ocotber and I've surpassed that now.
I'll plug away with the current targets until the end of the month and review then.
As my bank grows, I'm finding numerous advantages, not least that I can trade in bigger sums. I also find that I can get in early 2,3 or even 4 races ahead at the key prices. Of course I set an automatic tick offset and stop loss when doing this but it's proving fruitful so far getting ahead of the queue. With a smaller bank, this is not really possible as you need your capital to trade.
I feel pretty darn good about today so I've treated myself to a nice bottle of Châteauneuf-du-Pape to celebrate a good days work.
***
The Challenge: to increase my trading bank by 5% per month.
The story so far...
Starting bank: €1,000 (beginning of May 2010)
Target for end October: €1,340.10
Today’s opening bank: €1,688.86
Today’s closing bank: €1960.24
Today's profit/loss: +€271.40
Today's turnover: €91,608.21
Sunday, October 10, 2010
Figuring out the best stops loss
The Challenge: to increase my trading bank by 5% per month.
The story so far...
Starting bank: €1,000 (beginning of May 2010)
Target for end October: €1,340.10
Today’s opening bank: €1,643.47
Today’s closing bank: €1,688.86
Today's profit/loss: +€45.39
Today's turnover: €15,517.84
Only traded four races today as I went out for dinner with my family. It was a very good day all considered with a profit of €45.39. As the bank builds, I find that I can use bigger sums to trade which has positive and negative sides. The positive side, obviously, is that each successful trade is worth a bit more. The downside is that when a trade goes wrong, the loss can be harder to take. Again, I'm trying not to think in actual money figures, just percentages. It's easier said than done though!
Today, I tried trading without an automatic stop loss and while I made a profit, I didn't feel entirely comfortable. Perhaps I don't yet have the discipline to get out of a bad trade by myself and I let one or two run on longer than they should have. Trading with an automatic stop is great in one way as it takes out the emotion but it's not always suited to every situation. Sometimes you are fairly sure the market will come back your way but your stop loss has been hit in the meantime - this can prove frustrating. I haven't yet figured out the right stop loss yet. Perhaps I never will and it needs to be adjusted for each market, but I know that stops are something I must work on.
The story so far...
Starting bank: €1,000 (beginning of May 2010)
Target for end October: €1,340.10
Today’s opening bank: €1,643.47
Today’s closing bank: €1,688.86
Today's profit/loss: +€45.39
Today's turnover: €15,517.84
Only traded four races today as I went out for dinner with my family. It was a very good day all considered with a profit of €45.39. As the bank builds, I find that I can use bigger sums to trade which has positive and negative sides. The positive side, obviously, is that each successful trade is worth a bit more. The downside is that when a trade goes wrong, the loss can be harder to take. Again, I'm trying not to think in actual money figures, just percentages. It's easier said than done though!
Today, I tried trading without an automatic stop loss and while I made a profit, I didn't feel entirely comfortable. Perhaps I don't yet have the discipline to get out of a bad trade by myself and I let one or two run on longer than they should have. Trading with an automatic stop is great in one way as it takes out the emotion but it's not always suited to every situation. Sometimes you are fairly sure the market will come back your way but your stop loss has been hit in the meantime - this can prove frustrating. I haven't yet figured out the right stop loss yet. Perhaps I never will and it needs to be adjusted for each market, but I know that stops are something I must work on.
Saturday, October 9, 2010
Wow - what a day
An incredible day overall. I had a good evening session of trading but an in-running bet on Resplendent Ace earned me over €800 
Obviously, this €836 will not be included in my trading challenge totals.
I remember this horse hitting a big price in-running last time out before pulling it out of the bag and I thought I'd take a chance again with a few quid when he hit 25/1 in running. He actually traded around 34.0 at one stage. Low and behold, the gelding goes and pulls it out of the bag again!
This capped off a very good day as my Irish Independent column had a headline winner with Electric Waves at 7/1. I backed this one with cash in the bookies old style. Sometimes it's nice to get the real cash handed to you.
Sorry if I come across as boastful here, that's not my intention. It's just that these days don't come around so often so they should be enjoyed.
With regard to the trading, it was a cracker of a day with a profit of €82.36. I only traded a few evening races but it all went very well and I must admit that I'm feeling damn good about today.
I'll certainly enjoy my few pints tonight!
Don't think I'll get to trade tomorrow as my family want to bring me out to dinner for my 30th birthday.
***
The Challenge: to increase my trading bank by 5% per month.
The story so far...
Starting bank: €1,000 (beginning of May 2010)
Target for end September: €1,340.10
Today’s opening bank: €1,561.11
Today’s closing bank: €1,643.47
Today's profit/loss: +€82.36
Today's turnover: €20,765.90
Obviously, this €836 will not be included in my trading challenge totals.
I remember this horse hitting a big price in-running last time out before pulling it out of the bag and I thought I'd take a chance again with a few quid when he hit 25/1 in running. He actually traded around 34.0 at one stage. Low and behold, the gelding goes and pulls it out of the bag again!
This capped off a very good day as my Irish Independent column had a headline winner with Electric Waves at 7/1. I backed this one with cash in the bookies old style. Sometimes it's nice to get the real cash handed to you.
Sorry if I come across as boastful here, that's not my intention. It's just that these days don't come around so often so they should be enjoyed.
With regard to the trading, it was a cracker of a day with a profit of €82.36. I only traded a few evening races but it all went very well and I must admit that I'm feeling damn good about today.
I'll certainly enjoy my few pints tonight!
Don't think I'll get to trade tomorrow as my family want to bring me out to dinner for my 30th birthday.
***
The Challenge: to increase my trading bank by 5% per month.
The story so far...
Starting bank: €1,000 (beginning of May 2010)
Target for end September: €1,340.10
Today’s opening bank: €1,561.11
Today’s closing bank: €1,643.47
Today's profit/loss: +€82.36
Today's turnover: €20,765.90
Friday, October 8, 2010
New all-time high
The Challenge: to increase my trading bank by 5% per month.
The story so far...
Starting bank: €1,000 (beginning of May 2010)
Target for end September: €1,340.10
Today’s opening bank: €1,496.29
Today’s closing bank: €1,561.11
Today's profit/loss: +€64.82
Today's turnover: €27,814.60
A cracking day today which brings the bank to a new all-time high. I've decided to quit now as I want to watch the Ireland/Russia match and relax. Only one market went wrong which cost me a fiver but otherwise, it was pretty handy enough to make money.
It's strange sometimes - I don't know if it's the markets themselves or else it's the mindset - but some days just seem much easier than others.
By the end of the day, my concentration was starting to lapse so I decided to quit as the temptation to trade through boredom was arising. I'm starting to recognise these signals in myself and have started to act on them. If I'm feeling bored, for example, it's time for a break.
All in all, a very pleasing day. Let's hope a win for Ireland can top it off as I've layed the Russians for a ton:
The story so far...
Starting bank: €1,000 (beginning of May 2010)
Target for end September: €1,340.10
Today’s opening bank: €1,496.29
Today’s closing bank: €1,561.11
Today's profit/loss: +€64.82
Today's turnover: €27,814.60
A cracking day today which brings the bank to a new all-time high. I've decided to quit now as I want to watch the Ireland/Russia match and relax. Only one market went wrong which cost me a fiver but otherwise, it was pretty handy enough to make money.
It's strange sometimes - I don't know if it's the markets themselves or else it's the mindset - but some days just seem much easier than others.
By the end of the day, my concentration was starting to lapse so I decided to quit as the temptation to trade through boredom was arising. I'm starting to recognise these signals in myself and have started to act on them. If I'm feeling bored, for example, it's time for a break.
All in all, a very pleasing day. Let's hope a win for Ireland can top it off as I've layed the Russians for a ton:
Filming a random race
People have asked me to put up some more videos and I promised to do so when I got time.
However, one person sent me an interesting email and asked if I was going to up any trades where it goes arse up. I found this interesting as most videos on youtube are of successful trades and this makes it look easy. Generally, people pick and choose what they upload so it's not a real reflection of the reality of trading.
So I’ve decided, time permitting, to film a random race picked out in advance. If the trades go well, that’s great but the video will also go up if the trading goes wrong.
I’ve pulled a race at random to film today – the 15:55 at York.
Win, lose or draw I’ll put the video up this evening and explain what I do.
However, one person sent me an interesting email and asked if I was going to up any trades where it goes arse up. I found this interesting as most videos on youtube are of successful trades and this makes it look easy. Generally, people pick and choose what they upload so it's not a real reflection of the reality of trading.
So I’ve decided, time permitting, to film a random race picked out in advance. If the trades go well, that’s great but the video will also go up if the trading goes wrong.
I’ve pulled a race at random to film today – the 15:55 at York.
Win, lose or draw I’ll put the video up this evening and explain what I do.
'Out of body' trading
I’m sure most of you have read about people who have had ‘out of body’ or ‘near death’ experiences where they are floating above themselves and can somehow view their body from afar.
Yes, yes, yes – I know that the link between out of body experiences and trading is extremely tentative but bear with me while I try to explain a psychological strategy I use which often proves useful:
Let’s say you take a position where you hope to get a tick or two profit but the market is starting to go against you...
When faced with this situation, many people will start to panic and as they stare and stare at the screen, they wonder why it always happens to them. When faced with fear, it becomes hard to relax and let the markets do their thing and it almost seems impossible that the market will return to where you want it. Yet, very few people will get out for a loss at this point – they will sit there almost paralysed, urging the price to move their way. Sometimes it will, sometimes it won’t - but this paralysis can see very intelligent people watch their position deteriorate before their eyes and it can even destroy a bank. Why do we act like this?
The increased anxiety and fear when a position goes against you can become suffocating and the need to be right can make you angry at the market. This can lead to irrational behaviour where further bets are made (bets you never would have made had you not been in the negative position).
I’ve been in this position many times but I definitely handle it in a very different way nowadays than I did when I first started trading. A couple of years back, my heart rate would rise, I’d move my eyes closer to the screen and, being honest, I'd often add to my position in an attempt to buy my way out of the situation at the next tick. I’d get so absorbed with the micro movements that I couldn’t see the bigger picture. If the price went further against me, I would be facing a very big red book and this could become quite depressing. The urge to go in-running becomes great in these situations and while you may get away with it the odd time, you will eventually bust your bank by letting your bets go inplay. Believe me, I’ve been there and have a cupboard full of those T shirts.
Nowadays, I don’t get myself into that situation and I let the market do its thing. This is easier said than done but one you learn to ‘switch off’ when your trade has been placed, it can become liberating in a way.
If a trade goes against me nowadays, I do three things:
Firstly, I set a stop loss in an area that won’t cost me a fortune if it is hit.
Secondly, I put in a ‘get out’ order for the desired profit.
Thirdly, I move the chair away from the screen and promise myself that I won’t touch the mouse until my profit or stop point has been hit.
The temptation to intervene can be huge but this is where the ‘out of body’ mindset comes into play. I sit there and breathe slowly to try make myself calm. Once my profit order and stop loss is in place, I step aside from the computer, and detach myself from the situation. Traders need to feel in control but you must accept that staring intently at the screen will not change anything so why stress yourself out?
Once you’ve learned to resist going back to the screen, you will often find that doing nothing is the best course of action of all. With luck, your profit order will be met and you will make money but sometimes your stop loss will be activated and the software will get you out for a loss. No-one likes a loss but a small one sure as hell beats the catastrophic ones as described above. It might be a bit far fetched to describe it as an out of body experience but i certainly find myself feeling detached from the situation. As mentioned, this feeling can be calm and liberating, as I'm safe in the knowledge that the inner 'panic Wayne' won't F*ck things up.
I’d urge you to try it when a trade goes against you. Set a get out profit point, set a stop loss – and then step aside from the situation. Don’t get me wrong, you need to manage the position if the race is about to go off but if you’ve time, take a little stroll around the room and forget about the market for a few minutes. You may be pleasantly surprised when you come back. Sometimes, you will be disappointed but one thing you won’t be facing is a busted bank. Protecting your capital is much more important than making a profit on a given race but so many traders can’t seem to see this.
**
This evening, I traded just one race but ended up stepping aside from my position a number of times. The good news was that it worked in my favour for the most part and I earned over €30. When the markets went against me, I simply put in my orders on both sides and walked away.
The need to feel in control can be almost overwhelming but there are times where you just have to let things take their course.
By the way, the thirty quid earned will NOT be added to the trading challenge total – I wanted to play around with some ideas today and had decided beforehand that any profit or loss would not be part of the challenge. I’ve a couple of hours off tomorrow so I’ll get as much trading in as I can for the challenge then.
I’ll probably just withdraw the thirty quid and buy a couple of pints over the weekend with it. It’s only a small amount but you have to withdraw a few quid now and then and spend it, even if it is just to make the money feel real.
Yes, yes, yes – I know that the link between out of body experiences and trading is extremely tentative but bear with me while I try to explain a psychological strategy I use which often proves useful:
Let’s say you take a position where you hope to get a tick or two profit but the market is starting to go against you...
When faced with this situation, many people will start to panic and as they stare and stare at the screen, they wonder why it always happens to them. When faced with fear, it becomes hard to relax and let the markets do their thing and it almost seems impossible that the market will return to where you want it. Yet, very few people will get out for a loss at this point – they will sit there almost paralysed, urging the price to move their way. Sometimes it will, sometimes it won’t - but this paralysis can see very intelligent people watch their position deteriorate before their eyes and it can even destroy a bank. Why do we act like this?
The increased anxiety and fear when a position goes against you can become suffocating and the need to be right can make you angry at the market. This can lead to irrational behaviour where further bets are made (bets you never would have made had you not been in the negative position).
I’ve been in this position many times but I definitely handle it in a very different way nowadays than I did when I first started trading. A couple of years back, my heart rate would rise, I’d move my eyes closer to the screen and, being honest, I'd often add to my position in an attempt to buy my way out of the situation at the next tick. I’d get so absorbed with the micro movements that I couldn’t see the bigger picture. If the price went further against me, I would be facing a very big red book and this could become quite depressing. The urge to go in-running becomes great in these situations and while you may get away with it the odd time, you will eventually bust your bank by letting your bets go inplay. Believe me, I’ve been there and have a cupboard full of those T shirts.
Nowadays, I don’t get myself into that situation and I let the market do its thing. This is easier said than done but one you learn to ‘switch off’ when your trade has been placed, it can become liberating in a way.
If a trade goes against me nowadays, I do three things:
Firstly, I set a stop loss in an area that won’t cost me a fortune if it is hit.
Secondly, I put in a ‘get out’ order for the desired profit.
Thirdly, I move the chair away from the screen and promise myself that I won’t touch the mouse until my profit or stop point has been hit.
The temptation to intervene can be huge but this is where the ‘out of body’ mindset comes into play. I sit there and breathe slowly to try make myself calm. Once my profit order and stop loss is in place, I step aside from the computer, and detach myself from the situation. Traders need to feel in control but you must accept that staring intently at the screen will not change anything so why stress yourself out?
Once you’ve learned to resist going back to the screen, you will often find that doing nothing is the best course of action of all. With luck, your profit order will be met and you will make money but sometimes your stop loss will be activated and the software will get you out for a loss. No-one likes a loss but a small one sure as hell beats the catastrophic ones as described above. It might be a bit far fetched to describe it as an out of body experience but i certainly find myself feeling detached from the situation. As mentioned, this feeling can be calm and liberating, as I'm safe in the knowledge that the inner 'panic Wayne' won't F*ck things up.
I’d urge you to try it when a trade goes against you. Set a get out profit point, set a stop loss – and then step aside from the situation. Don’t get me wrong, you need to manage the position if the race is about to go off but if you’ve time, take a little stroll around the room and forget about the market for a few minutes. You may be pleasantly surprised when you come back. Sometimes, you will be disappointed but one thing you won’t be facing is a busted bank. Protecting your capital is much more important than making a profit on a given race but so many traders can’t seem to see this.
**
This evening, I traded just one race but ended up stepping aside from my position a number of times. The good news was that it worked in my favour for the most part and I earned over €30. When the markets went against me, I simply put in my orders on both sides and walked away.
The need to feel in control can be almost overwhelming but there are times where you just have to let things take their course.
By the way, the thirty quid earned will NOT be added to the trading challenge total – I wanted to play around with some ideas today and had decided beforehand that any profit or loss would not be part of the challenge. I’ve a couple of hours off tomorrow so I’ll get as much trading in as I can for the challenge then.
I’ll probably just withdraw the thirty quid and buy a couple of pints over the weekend with it. It’s only a small amount but you have to withdraw a few quid now and then and spend it, even if it is just to make the money feel real.
Tuesday, October 5, 2010
September review
On figures, September was disappointing as the bank dropped down by around thirty quid.
This was mainly down to 12th September when I lost 80 quid by ignoring my stops and chasing a trade. It just goes to show that these simple lapses in discipline can have a big effect. Had I kept to my stops losses, I would have shown a very reasonable profit for the month but the oldies, fear and greed, ruined what would have been a good month.
In reality, I didn't get to trade much at all during the month - most of my weekends off were spent travelling and the evening meetings came to an end. I actually only got to trade for 4-5 days in September.
The target for the end of October is €1340.10 and even though I've surpassed that, this static period is a worry and I need to crack on with making money again.
Going forward...
* We are already into October and I haven't had a chance to trade as yet. I realise that I'm going to have to plan better and get more time trading. I'm going to have to look at the calendar and do as much of the all-weather evening, and also the weekend meetings as much as I can. I can't hit targets or make money unless I trade so I'll simply have to organise myself a bit better this month.
* A loss in September (my first losing month) is a bit sobering as it was purely down to a single day of indiscipline. I MUST knock this type of thing on the head going forward.
* I've had some emails asking me to put up more videos on youtube. It's been a hectic few weeks for me at home and work and I simply haven't had the time. I know I've said it before, but I do plan on filming some more trading sessions soon.
As for trading this week: There's evening racing at Kempton tomorrow but I do a wine tasting course on Wednesdays so that's out. I work late on Thursdays so I won't get to do Wolves that evening - however, they have late racing on Friday which should be do-able. I'm working during the daytime on Saturday but again, there's evening racing from Wolves so I'll try cover that and I hope to do daytime Sunday aswell. As usual, thanks for the comments and questions during the month.
This was mainly down to 12th September when I lost 80 quid by ignoring my stops and chasing a trade. It just goes to show that these simple lapses in discipline can have a big effect. Had I kept to my stops losses, I would have shown a very reasonable profit for the month but the oldies, fear and greed, ruined what would have been a good month.
In reality, I didn't get to trade much at all during the month - most of my weekends off were spent travelling and the evening meetings came to an end. I actually only got to trade for 4-5 days in September.
The target for the end of October is €1340.10 and even though I've surpassed that, this static period is a worry and I need to crack on with making money again.
Going forward...
* We are already into October and I haven't had a chance to trade as yet. I realise that I'm going to have to plan better and get more time trading. I'm going to have to look at the calendar and do as much of the all-weather evening, and also the weekend meetings as much as I can. I can't hit targets or make money unless I trade so I'll simply have to organise myself a bit better this month.
* A loss in September (my first losing month) is a bit sobering as it was purely down to a single day of indiscipline. I MUST knock this type of thing on the head going forward.
* I've had some emails asking me to put up more videos on youtube. It's been a hectic few weeks for me at home and work and I simply haven't had the time. I know I've said it before, but I do plan on filming some more trading sessions soon.
As for trading this week: There's evening racing at Kempton tomorrow but I do a wine tasting course on Wednesdays so that's out. I work late on Thursdays so I won't get to do Wolves that evening - however, they have late racing on Friday which should be do-able. I'm working during the daytime on Saturday but again, there's evening racing from Wolves so I'll try cover that and I hope to do daytime Sunday aswell. As usual, thanks for the comments and questions during the month.
Thursday, September 30, 2010
Busy time
I know I haven't posted here in a while but I'm up to my eyes in work so I haven't been trading lately. I'm off to Rome for the weekend so realistically, it will be sometime next week before I get a chance to trade again.
Ciao!
Ciao!
Friday, September 24, 2010
Self fulfilling prophecies
Recently, I finished reading a book called “Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets” which proved very interesting. The author is mainly talking about trading stocks and shares but the principles can be applied to what we do when trading on Betfair.
The main point the author is trying to make is that humans look too deeply into patterns and graphs and often find trends and theories that can actually be put down to pure randomness. The book was good, don’t get me wrong – but the author (a trader himself) came across as a bit pompous and seemed to completely dismiss the idea that past trends have any meaning in the markets. Unfortunately, he didn’t give a real insight into how he trades himself, other than that he likes to bet against unforeseen circumstances.
While the book made me question some of my strategies and look at the markets in a new way, I don’t fully agree with the author and think that charts are quite useful when you need a feel of how things are going. It’s true to say that past trends won’t necessarily repeat themselves but there are certain self fulfilling prophecies in life and in the markets that can’t be ignored.
They can also be exploited.
Let me give you a real-life example...
As some of you know, I’m a librarian by profession and some time back, I attended a training course in the local county council offices. This building has more than 1,000 people working in it and as you can imagine, the canteen can get quite hectic at certain times of the day.
Traditionally, workers would head to the canteen around 11am for a tea-break and this time became very busy with most or all of the seating areas taken up. So over time, people started to avoid going on break at 11am as there was an expectation that the place would be packed.
At the training course, the tutor broke up the session at 10.45 am for a break so we could ‘beat the queue’ and get a coffee and a seat early. However, everyone else had this idea too and the place was packed.
A few days later, I happened to be in the same building and went up to the canteen at 11.05. Guess what? It was pretty quiet, as most people had been on their break already.
How does this relate to the markets? Well, pack mentality can be significant in both life and in the markets. Because a lot of people believed in something (that the canteen would be busy), they acted en-masse. This has created a predictable trend in the building, and you can now be sure that the busiest time in the canteen is around 10.45 as people leave their desk early to ‘beat the rush’. It’s quite amusing as they don’t seem to realise what they are doing! Eventually, they may cop on and the break times will re-adjust.
In the markets, there are certain prices where you can see something similar happen. For example, take the resistance point prices of a horse (that is, the highest and lowest point that the horse has been matched at in the past).
Let’s say a horse was trading around 4.1 but the highest point the horse has been matched in the past was 4.5...
If the price is rising, we can expect it to surpass 4.2, 4.3 and 4.4 but when it hits 4.5, it will usually stall. Why is this?
It’s because traders (rightly or wrongly) believe that a horse is unlikely to break through the highest price it has been matched at to date. Of course, it’s not impossible for the price to break out - but because there are so many people out there who trade resistance points, it becomes one of those self fulfilling prophecies, for a time at least. Backers put orders in at 4.5 because they think the price will bounce back down when it hits it. The more people that do this, the more the money builds up at 4.5. With all the money building up at 4.5, it gets hard for the layers to push through that price and quite often, the price drops down a tick or two. If there are enough layers in the market, the back money will get eaten away eventually and you’ll have a breakout but generally speaking, the price will test the 4.5 price a number of times.
Provided you get your order in early, this provides a good scalping opportunity. In this case, you would place your back order at 4.5 soon before the price rises near (so you get in ahead of the queue). As soon as the price starts to rise, you will see other backers join you at 4.5. When your order starts to get taken, you immediately fire in a lay at 4.4 and wait for the price to bounce.
Of course, you will need a stop loss in case of a real breakout but I’ve had some good success with this type of trading.
Because people believe something will happen, they will act en-masse. The signal for people to act en-masse may be the clock striking 10.45am or it may be the price rising to 4.5. The point is, it creates a pattern that can be exploited.
By the way, the best time to take a tea-break in my place is 11.10am as you can avoid the people who are trying to avoid the people!
The main point the author is trying to make is that humans look too deeply into patterns and graphs and often find trends and theories that can actually be put down to pure randomness. The book was good, don’t get me wrong – but the author (a trader himself) came across as a bit pompous and seemed to completely dismiss the idea that past trends have any meaning in the markets. Unfortunately, he didn’t give a real insight into how he trades himself, other than that he likes to bet against unforeseen circumstances.
While the book made me question some of my strategies and look at the markets in a new way, I don’t fully agree with the author and think that charts are quite useful when you need a feel of how things are going. It’s true to say that past trends won’t necessarily repeat themselves but there are certain self fulfilling prophecies in life and in the markets that can’t be ignored.
They can also be exploited.
Let me give you a real-life example...
As some of you know, I’m a librarian by profession and some time back, I attended a training course in the local county council offices. This building has more than 1,000 people working in it and as you can imagine, the canteen can get quite hectic at certain times of the day.
Traditionally, workers would head to the canteen around 11am for a tea-break and this time became very busy with most or all of the seating areas taken up. So over time, people started to avoid going on break at 11am as there was an expectation that the place would be packed.
At the training course, the tutor broke up the session at 10.45 am for a break so we could ‘beat the queue’ and get a coffee and a seat early. However, everyone else had this idea too and the place was packed.
A few days later, I happened to be in the same building and went up to the canteen at 11.05. Guess what? It was pretty quiet, as most people had been on their break already.
How does this relate to the markets? Well, pack mentality can be significant in both life and in the markets. Because a lot of people believed in something (that the canteen would be busy), they acted en-masse. This has created a predictable trend in the building, and you can now be sure that the busiest time in the canteen is around 10.45 as people leave their desk early to ‘beat the rush’. It’s quite amusing as they don’t seem to realise what they are doing! Eventually, they may cop on and the break times will re-adjust.
In the markets, there are certain prices where you can see something similar happen. For example, take the resistance point prices of a horse (that is, the highest and lowest point that the horse has been matched at in the past).
Let’s say a horse was trading around 4.1 but the highest point the horse has been matched in the past was 4.5...
If the price is rising, we can expect it to surpass 4.2, 4.3 and 4.4 but when it hits 4.5, it will usually stall. Why is this?
It’s because traders (rightly or wrongly) believe that a horse is unlikely to break through the highest price it has been matched at to date. Of course, it’s not impossible for the price to break out - but because there are so many people out there who trade resistance points, it becomes one of those self fulfilling prophecies, for a time at least. Backers put orders in at 4.5 because they think the price will bounce back down when it hits it. The more people that do this, the more the money builds up at 4.5. With all the money building up at 4.5, it gets hard for the layers to push through that price and quite often, the price drops down a tick or two. If there are enough layers in the market, the back money will get eaten away eventually and you’ll have a breakout but generally speaking, the price will test the 4.5 price a number of times.
Provided you get your order in early, this provides a good scalping opportunity. In this case, you would place your back order at 4.5 soon before the price rises near (so you get in ahead of the queue). As soon as the price starts to rise, you will see other backers join you at 4.5. When your order starts to get taken, you immediately fire in a lay at 4.4 and wait for the price to bounce.
Of course, you will need a stop loss in case of a real breakout but I’ve had some good success with this type of trading.
Because people believe something will happen, they will act en-masse. The signal for people to act en-masse may be the clock striking 10.45am or it may be the price rising to 4.5. The point is, it creates a pattern that can be exploited.
By the way, the best time to take a tea-break in my place is 11.10am as you can avoid the people who are trying to avoid the people!
Monday, September 20, 2010
Feel lucky to have made a profit today
The Challenge: to increase my trading bank by 5% per month.
The story so far...
Starting bank: €1,000 (beginning of May 2010)
Target for end September: €1,276.28
Today’s opening bank: €1,484.75
Today’s closing bank: €1,496.29
Today's profit/loss: +€11.54
Today's turnover: €10,525.41
***
Only started trading late today as I was doing some work in the garden. I feel relieved to have made a profit as found the markets a bit strange today and could get much of a feel for them.
Quite a few markets I entered seemed volatile and while volatility is needed to trade, sometimes it's a curse when you are using a tight stop loss.
I was scalping for one tick today with my stop loss set for 4 ticks. Numerous times, the market zig zagged taking my order, then my stop loss and then returning back to where it was. This can be pretty frustrating to say the least but it happens now and then and you just have to move on. One particular market took twenty quid on me which left my overall profit at €11.54 over 8 markets.
The story so far...
Starting bank: €1,000 (beginning of May 2010)
Target for end September: €1,276.28
Today’s opening bank: €1,484.75
Today’s closing bank: €1,496.29
Today's profit/loss: +€11.54
Today's turnover: €10,525.41
***
Only started trading late today as I was doing some work in the garden. I feel relieved to have made a profit as found the markets a bit strange today and could get much of a feel for them.
Quite a few markets I entered seemed volatile and while volatility is needed to trade, sometimes it's a curse when you are using a tight stop loss.
I was scalping for one tick today with my stop loss set for 4 ticks. Numerous times, the market zig zagged taking my order, then my stop loss and then returning back to where it was. This can be pretty frustrating to say the least but it happens now and then and you just have to move on. One particular market took twenty quid on me which left my overall profit at €11.54 over 8 markets.
Saturday, September 18, 2010
Well done Frankie!
The Challenge: to increase my trading bank by 5% per month.
The story so far...
Starting bank: €1,000 (beginning of May 2010)
Target for end September: €1,276.28
Today’s opening bank: €1,426.75
Today’s closing bank: €1,484.75
Today's profit/loss: +€58.00
Today's turnover: €11,615.73
A cracking day for the Betfair balance with a profit of €461.06; however most of that was earned from a traditional win and place bet on Redford in the Ayr Gold Cup which provided a profit of €361.76 and €41.30 respectively. So the actual profit earned from trading was €58.00 which is pretty decent.
I know it's nothing to do with this trading challenge but I'm particularly happy with that bet on Redford. I put it up as a bet in the paper so it was very pleasing to see Frankie storm home. My 'each-way outsider' selections in the Irish Independent newspaper have been going over the bar lately with many placed at big prices. However, I scored a goal today which is a great boost for my article.
Regarding the trading, it all went quite smoothly really. I was just doing some scalping and getting a tick or two here and there. The liquidity wasn't great in some races and traders usually complain about this - however, this also presents an opportunity as you can get in early ahead of the queue especially at the vital crossover prices like 2.0, 3.0, 4.0, 6.0, 10.0 etc.
I'm off out to a school reunion tonight so that tops off a very nice day.
The story so far...
Starting bank: €1,000 (beginning of May 2010)
Target for end September: €1,276.28
Today’s opening bank: €1,426.75
Today’s closing bank: €1,484.75
Today's profit/loss: +€58.00
Today's turnover: €11,615.73
A cracking day for the Betfair balance with a profit of €461.06; however most of that was earned from a traditional win and place bet on Redford in the Ayr Gold Cup which provided a profit of €361.76 and €41.30 respectively. So the actual profit earned from trading was €58.00 which is pretty decent.
I know it's nothing to do with this trading challenge but I'm particularly happy with that bet on Redford. I put it up as a bet in the paper so it was very pleasing to see Frankie storm home. My 'each-way outsider' selections in the Irish Independent newspaper have been going over the bar lately with many placed at big prices. However, I scored a goal today which is a great boost for my article.
Regarding the trading, it all went quite smoothly really. I was just doing some scalping and getting a tick or two here and there. The liquidity wasn't great in some races and traders usually complain about this - however, this also presents an opportunity as you can get in early ahead of the queue especially at the vital crossover prices like 2.0, 3.0, 4.0, 6.0, 10.0 etc.
I'm off out to a school reunion tonight so that tops off a very nice day.
Friday, September 17, 2010
Annoying quirk on Betfair
I was trying some ideas out today and was a small bit ahead when something odd happened costing me nearly 25 quid.
Basically, I had two lay orders on the 5.30 at Newbury and was planning on trying to trade for a one tick profit should any of them get matched.
The next minute, the market was suspended so a horse could be withdrawn - but instead of removing my lay orders, it turned them into SP bets!
Now, I do admit that I had the ‘SP in play’ boxed ticked but the race had not gone in-play, it was just suspended. The reason I had that box ticked was because I had no TV pics today and I find it useful sometimes to close off an open trade at the off rather than going in-running.
Anyway, the point is, they put my bet in as an SP bet when the market was suspended rather than cancelling my bet. I’m a bit pissed off about this as it meant I had two unwanted SP lays:
The problem here is that I couldn’t place a counter back bet to get out until the SP was finalised (in other words, when the market actually went in play for real).
So I waited on the market to go in-play but almost immediately, the prices went against me and I had to get out for a loss of nearly €25.
I guess it’s something to be aware of and it could have been worse but it’s bloody annoying that my bets went to SP when the market was suspended and not when it went in-play (as I had requested).
I’m off out for the night to go to the afters of a wedding so I’m calling it a day. A small loss is shown because of this quirk. Has anyone else seen this happen before?
**********
The Challenge: to increase my trading bank by 5% per month.
The story so far...
Starting bank: €1,000 (beginning of May 2010)
Target for end September: €1,276.28
Today’s opening bank: €1,445.14
Today’s closing bank: €1,426.75
Today's profit/loss: -€18.39
Today's turnover: €4,116.2
Basically, I had two lay orders on the 5.30 at Newbury and was planning on trying to trade for a one tick profit should any of them get matched.
The next minute, the market was suspended so a horse could be withdrawn - but instead of removing my lay orders, it turned them into SP bets!
Now, I do admit that I had the ‘SP in play’ boxed ticked but the race had not gone in-play, it was just suspended. The reason I had that box ticked was because I had no TV pics today and I find it useful sometimes to close off an open trade at the off rather than going in-running.
Anyway, the point is, they put my bet in as an SP bet when the market was suspended rather than cancelling my bet. I’m a bit pissed off about this as it meant I had two unwanted SP lays:
The problem here is that I couldn’t place a counter back bet to get out until the SP was finalised (in other words, when the market actually went in play for real).
So I waited on the market to go in-play but almost immediately, the prices went against me and I had to get out for a loss of nearly €25.
I guess it’s something to be aware of and it could have been worse but it’s bloody annoying that my bets went to SP when the market was suspended and not when it went in-play (as I had requested).
I’m off out for the night to go to the afters of a wedding so I’m calling it a day. A small loss is shown because of this quirk. Has anyone else seen this happen before?
**********
The Challenge: to increase my trading bank by 5% per month.
The story so far...
Starting bank: €1,000 (beginning of May 2010)
Target for end September: €1,276.28
Today’s opening bank: €1,445.14
Today’s closing bank: €1,426.75
Today's profit/loss: -€18.39
Today's turnover: €4,116.2
Wednesday, September 15, 2010
Technical analysis
As mentioned before, I've been reading a lot of trading books on the stock market as I find that many principles can be applied to trading on the exchanges. Today, I tried out some technical analysis based strategies (mainly using moving averages) with good success and a profit of €16.97 is decent considering the stakes were small. I'm not going to include this profit in my challenge as I had decided beforehand that it was test trading money.
Some people love technical analysis as you can essentially build systems on the data, while others say that past data is useless at predicting what will happen in the future.
I'm somewhere in-between. A lot of the price movements are fairly random and I can see why some people don't believe in TA. However, I also realise that markets, or rather the bettors in them, have memories and will take positions based on previous bets and trades. There's also the people that believe that the 'trend is your friend' and will hop on the bandwagon when the see a rise or fall in prices. People also like backing at certain prices (round numbers for example) and this can be seen on charts - So to say it's completely random would be wrong, although you have to be aware of 'noise' and not let it influence you.
Anyhow, I'm happy with how I done today and look forward to reading more on the subject...
What's more, I've got my hands on "Wall Street" on DVD so I hope to have an enjoyable night in front of the box!
Some people love technical analysis as you can essentially build systems on the data, while others say that past data is useless at predicting what will happen in the future.
I'm somewhere in-between. A lot of the price movements are fairly random and I can see why some people don't believe in TA. However, I also realise that markets, or rather the bettors in them, have memories and will take positions based on previous bets and trades. There's also the people that believe that the 'trend is your friend' and will hop on the bandwagon when the see a rise or fall in prices. People also like backing at certain prices (round numbers for example) and this can be seen on charts - So to say it's completely random would be wrong, although you have to be aware of 'noise' and not let it influence you.
Anyhow, I'm happy with how I done today and look forward to reading more on the subject...
What's more, I've got my hands on "Wall Street" on DVD so I hope to have an enjoyable night in front of the box!
Sunday, September 12, 2010
Bad day - and it's my own fault
The Challenge: to increase my trading bank by 5% per month.
The story so far...
Starting bank: €1,000 (beginning of May 2010)
Target for end September: €1,276.28
Today’s opening bank: €1,526.99
Today’s closing bank: €1,445.14
Today's profit/loss: -€81.85
Today's turnover: €18,452.07
***
Lost €81.85 today (and a fiver on the football which is separate) and I'm a bit pissed off with myself as it should have been avoided. On one race, I kept thinking the price would go my way and opened up more than one position. I knew deep down I should have just waited and let the bet hit the stop loss (or else let it it my counter trade) but I went back for more and it ended up costing me 78.47 when the price kept going against me.
Again, this is one of those discipline issues I need to work on - if I had of let it hit the stop loss and move on, I would have only lost a tenner.
Still ahead of my target but I can't say I'm not disappointed with myself. On a side note, a book I ordered, 'The Psychology of trading' has arrived so I'm looking forward to seeing if I get anything out of that.
The story so far...
Starting bank: €1,000 (beginning of May 2010)
Target for end September: €1,276.28
Today’s opening bank: €1,526.99
Today’s closing bank: €1,445.14
Today's profit/loss: -€81.85
Today's turnover: €18,452.07
***
Lost €81.85 today (and a fiver on the football which is separate) and I'm a bit pissed off with myself as it should have been avoided. On one race, I kept thinking the price would go my way and opened up more than one position. I knew deep down I should have just waited and let the bet hit the stop loss (or else let it it my counter trade) but I went back for more and it ended up costing me 78.47 when the price kept going against me.
Again, this is one of those discipline issues I need to work on - if I had of let it hit the stop loss and move on, I would have only lost a tenner.
Still ahead of my target but I can't say I'm not disappointed with myself. On a side note, a book I ordered, 'The Psychology of trading' has arrived so I'm looking forward to seeing if I get anything out of that.
Tuesday, September 7, 2010
Away for a while
I was over in England for the weekend to see my uncle which was good craic. I didn't do any trading but I did have a few bits of work to do and brought the wife's mini laptop. One of the great things these days is the amount of free wifi spots available. Places like McDonalds, Starbucks, Wetherspoons etc all offer free access. I know it's not ideal sitting there with a burger trying to do a bit of work but it's far better than a few years ago where you'd have to try find some sort of run down Internet cafe.
I used the McDonalds wifi as the store is open 24 hours and is only a ten minute walk from my uncles house.
I've quite a lot of work on this week so I don't think I'll get any trading done. This is one of my worries going forward now that the evening racing has more or less ended. Thankfully, I'm ahead of target but nabbing a day or two here and there could be tricky and I hope I don't fall behind. Anyway, I'll post again in a week or so or whenever I get a chance to trade again.
I used the McDonalds wifi as the store is open 24 hours and is only a ten minute walk from my uncles house.
I've quite a lot of work on this week so I don't think I'll get any trading done. This is one of my worries going forward now that the evening racing has more or less ended. Thankfully, I'm ahead of target but nabbing a day or two here and there could be tricky and I hope I don't fall behind. Anyway, I'll post again in a week or so or whenever I get a chance to trade again.
Wednesday, September 1, 2010
August Review
An excellent month in terms of profit and loss which is great as I won’t be able to trade all that much going forward. The evening racing comes to an end which only leaves my days off for trading. I like to try spend Sunday with my wife and daughter so realistically, I’ll only be trading one day per week during the winter (plus some all-weather evening racing).
This may make it difficult to meet targets although that’s why set a realistic target of 5% per month.
The target for the end of September is to have the bank at €1,276.28 and that has already been met so this month, it’s a case of protecting my capital while trying to push the bank forward a little. Nothing too aggressive though.
I’m still learning all the time and am spending some time reading books about trading the stock market (there’s no real books on Betfair trading as yet). Many of these are helpful, especially the psychological end of things. In fact, I think I’ll start doing book reviews on the blog soon. I’ve just ordered two books on trading psychology so I look forward to their arrival.
On a negative side, I still feel that I have one or two discipline issues that need addressed. I still find it hard to accept when a trade goes wrong and am often tempted to try trade my way out of it. I have to learn to move on quicker without letting it get to me.
When a trade goes very bad, I always jot down the reason and here’s a quick copy and paste of that. Sorry about the grammar etc, it’s just from my quick notes:
Too volatile, rushed in
greed, chasing
stop loss too near
couldn't get head around market
getting in too quick
ingoring stops
waiting for the best
too many trades in one direction
not adjusting strategy for market
guessing that there would be a crossover spread
In running twice
greed - getting in late SAVED by R4
went back to market I had previously dismissed as too volatile
was well up at 2 mins but went in for more - got taken out
staking too high on odds-on horses
Chasing bad trades with bigger stakes
boredom trading instead of waiting for oppor.
Making an honest note of your errors can be useful to look back on but you have to be truthful. As you can see, most of these are discipline issues which I hope to work on in September.
Not sure when I’ll get to trade next as I’m off to London this weekend but I’ll post again soon.
This may make it difficult to meet targets although that’s why set a realistic target of 5% per month.
The target for the end of September is to have the bank at €1,276.28 and that has already been met so this month, it’s a case of protecting my capital while trying to push the bank forward a little. Nothing too aggressive though.
I’m still learning all the time and am spending some time reading books about trading the stock market (there’s no real books on Betfair trading as yet). Many of these are helpful, especially the psychological end of things. In fact, I think I’ll start doing book reviews on the blog soon. I’ve just ordered two books on trading psychology so I look forward to their arrival.
On a negative side, I still feel that I have one or two discipline issues that need addressed. I still find it hard to accept when a trade goes wrong and am often tempted to try trade my way out of it. I have to learn to move on quicker without letting it get to me.
When a trade goes very bad, I always jot down the reason and here’s a quick copy and paste of that. Sorry about the grammar etc, it’s just from my quick notes:
Too volatile, rushed in
greed, chasing
stop loss too near
couldn't get head around market
getting in too quick
ingoring stops
waiting for the best
too many trades in one direction
not adjusting strategy for market
guessing that there would be a crossover spread
In running twice
greed - getting in late SAVED by R4
went back to market I had previously dismissed as too volatile
was well up at 2 mins but went in for more - got taken out
staking too high on odds-on horses
Chasing bad trades with bigger stakes
boredom trading instead of waiting for oppor.
Making an honest note of your errors can be useful to look back on but you have to be truthful. As you can see, most of these are discipline issues which I hope to work on in September.
Not sure when I’ll get to trade next as I’m off to London this weekend but I’ll post again soon.